|Severe humanitarian crisis|
|Situation of concern|
- Severe humanitarian crisis
- Humanitarian crisis
- Situation of concern
- Watch list
Snapshot 15–21 October
DRC: A resurgence of ADF-NALU attacks in North Kivu are thought to have displaced 100,000 people, and killed at least 80. In South Kivu, there has been a significant increase in IDPs, mainly due to insecurity in Shabunda and Fizi territories. 7.3 million people across the country are estimated to be food insecure.
Mali: Clashes in Intillit, Gao region, just before peace talks were scheduled to resume have prompted the withdrawal of some NGOs, with fears that the violence may spread. Mounting insecurity is hampering humanitarian access in the north.
Ebola in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone: 9,191 cases of Ebola and 4,546 deaths have been reported, with Guinea’s capital recording a new spike in cases, and every district in Sierra Leone now having recorded cases of the disease. Liberia remains the most affected country.
Updated: 21/10/2014. Next update: 28/10/2014
Afghanistan Country Analysis
15 October: Nearly 244,200 Pakistanis and Afghan returnees in Khost and Paktika urgently need WASH, food, shelter and preparation for winter months (UNHCR).
15 October: 54 districts in central Afghanistan will be difficult to access in winter, affecting around 750,000 WFP beneficiaries (OCHA).
- Nearly 5,000 civilians killed or injured in the first six months of the year – 25% more than the year before (UNAMA, 04/07/2014). 5,456 security-related incidents recorded 1 June–15 August, a 10.7% increase on 2013 (UN, 09/09/2014).
- 2.4 million people need safe drinking water, sanitation, and hygiene services, as a result of the landslides and flash floods (UNICEF, 30/07/2014).
- Nearly 245,000 Pakistanis and Afghan returnees in Khost and Paktika provinces need food, WASH, shelter, winterisation preparation and non-food items (UNHCR, 15/10/2014).
- 10,055 returnees in 2014 and 702,000 IDPs (OCHA 01/09/2014; USAID, 01/10/2014); 113,000 were displaced in 2013 (UNHCR, OCHA, 02/2014).
- 2.5 million people are classified as severely food insecure (OCHA), while 5.4 million need access to health services and 1.7 million need protection.
- 4% of children under five (almost 500,000 children) suffer from SAM and eight provinces show GAM rates above 15%, breaching the emergency threshold (OCHA, 31/07/2014).
Natural disasters and armed conflicts in Afghanistan prompted a humanitarian crisis. Assistance needs include food, healthcare, and protection.
The Afghan Government faces both internal and external challenges to its capacity and legitimacy, and the outcome of the 2014 presidential election will have implications for the country’s internal cohesion. The security environment is highly volatile and expected to deteriorate as international troops gradually withdraw from the country.
On 29 September, Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah were sworn in as Afghanistan’s new President and Prime Minister, respectively (Reuters, 29/09/2014). The election had been disputed, as was an audit supervised by the UN, which released its results on 26 September, indicating that that Ghani won, with 55% of the votes (AFP, 26/09/2014).
Peace Talks with the Taliban
Although various official and informal sources have evoked renewed preliminary contacts between Kabul and the Taliban, no substantial talks have yet been launched. Peace talks with the Afghan Taliban have been stalled since mid-2013.
Nearly 5,000 civilians were killed or injured in the first six months of 2014, 25% more than in the same period of 2013. Mortars and rockets caused almost 1,000 civilian casualties, a 160% increase on 2013 (UNAMA, 04/07/2014). Between 1 June and 15 August, the UN recorded 5,456 security-related incidents across Afghanistan, representing a 10% increase compared to the same period in 2013.
68 cases of violence against journalists were recorded between January and June, a 60% increase from 2013. Five were killed, including two foreign nationals (UN 26/08/2014).
International Military Presence
On 30 September, the US-Afghanistan Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) was signed. After 2014, NATO’s Resolute Support mission will be made up of 9,800 US troops and 3,000 soldiers from other member states. The mission will focus on supporting Afghan forces’ fight against the Taliban, along with US counter-terrorism operations. There are currently about 41,000 NATO troops in Afghanistan, down from a peak of 130,000 in 2012 (AFP, 30/09/2014).
There is widespread concern regarding the capacity of the 352,000 Afghan security forces to deal with intensified Taliban attacks as international forces slowly withdraw from the country.
The Taliban has been intensifying activities as international forces withdraw from the country, targeting foreign military, humanitarian personnel, and civilians. Remote parts of southern and south eastern Afghanistan, near the border with Pakistan, remain under insurgent control. Taliban numbers have increased by 15% since the beginning of 2013.
In August the Taliban intensified attacks on Kunduz (the Taliban's last stronghold before the US-backed Northern Alliance drove them out in 2001), engaging the army, police forces and local militias in combat (AFP 24/08/2014). In June, armed clashes involving 800 Taliban and Afghan forces took place in Sangin, Musa Qala, Naw Zad and Kajaki districts of Helmand province (UNAMA).
A suicide bombing in Lashkargah in Helmand province on 8 October left three civilians dead, including a child, and 18 more wounded (Government, 08/10/2014).
A major Taliban offensive in Ajristan district of Ghazni province over 20–26 September killed up to 100 civilians and security personnel (AFP, 26/09/2014). A Taliban attack on a government compound in Ghazni at the beginning of the month killed 33 and wounded at least 60 (AFP, 04/09/2014).
A Taliban suicide bombing targeting a NATO convoy in Kabul on 13 October killed an Afghan civilian (AFP, 13/10/2014). On 1 October, a day after the BSA was signed, two Taliban suicide attacks targeting army buses in Kabul killed seven people, including one civilian, and injured 15 (AFP, 01/10/2014). Two Taliban suicide attacks killed ten people in Kabul in September (Reuters, 29/09/2014; 16/09/2014).
A NATO airstrike on 9 September in Narang Wa Badil district, Kunar province, killed 11 civilians and injured ten. The airstrike took place after local police and soldiers had come under attack (Le Monde, 10/09/2014).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
The fluctuating security situation is continually changing the operating environment and access (WFP 22/05/2014). Movement restrictions are increasingly being applied to aid workers.
Security Incidents Involving Aid Workers
26 incidents against aid workers were recorded in September. Two aid workers were killed, four wounded and ten abducted, and there were four incidents targeting deminers (OCHA, 15/10/2014).
By 15 August, there had been 117 cases of violence against aid personnel, assets, and facilities in 2014, resulting in 37 deaths and 35 injuries, 114 abductions and attempted abductions and the arrest and detention of five personnel (UN, 09/09/2014).
Nearly 3,250 people were affected by flooding in four districts across Laghman, Khost, Paktika and Wardak provinces in August (IOM/USAID 11/08/2014). 210,530 people, mainly in northern and central Afghanistan, were affected by natural disasters between January and July, primarily floods and heavy rainfall. (OCHA, 19/08/2014).
As of 30 September, there were nearly 702,000 IDPs in Afghanistan (USAID, 01/10/2014).
Clashes in northern districts in Helmand province in June displaced nearly 10,000 people. Sangin, Musa Qala and Nehr-e-Saraj districts remain insecure, and humanitarian access is limited (FEWSNET, 30/09/2014). Most IDPs are with host families, in rented accommodation or in emergency shelters. Almost 500 people were displaced to informal settlements in Kabul (USAID, 01/10/2014).
As of October, 3,805 houses remain completely destroyed in the north, after floods hit earlier in the year. Families require support for winterisation (OCHA, 15/10/2014). Most of the people displaced in Badakhshan and Takhar provinces are still living in camps with insufficient water and sanitation facilities. Emergency shelter, NFIs, basic health services, and psychosocial support are required, but the situation is constrained by poor access and security issues (Red Cross, 09/10/2014).
Refugees in Afghanistan
By 15 October, nearly 244,200 refugees from North Waziristan agency in Pakistan (33,000 families) had sought refuge in Khost and Paktika provinces of eastern Afghanistan (mainly Gurbuz, Bermei, and Spera districts) since mid-June (UNHCR, 15/10/2014). September saw an increase of arrivals at Gulan camp and in Gurbuz, Alisher, and Spera districts (UNHCR, 02/10/2014).
More than 80% of refugees live in host communities, which are often remote and difficult to access, and stretched beyond capacity. Lack of space and cultural sensitivities mean that many refugees sleep outside in unroofed courtyards (OCHA, 15/10/2014). The ability of host communities to support the high number of refugees is expected to decrease over winter months as resources are exhausted and available shelter is limited (UNHCR, 15/10/2014).
Health, WASH, food, shelter and mine clearance are priorities; additional needs include winterisation, education and livelihood support, (UNHCR, 02/10/2014).
As of 30 September, 32,000 people were in informal settlements in Kabul (OCHA, 30/09/2014).
As of 1 October, 4,430 Afghans (797 families) have returned from Pakistan’s North Waziristan to Khost, Paktika, and Kabul provinces. All families from Paktika and Kabul returned to their province of origin (IOM, 07/10/14). Returnees are in need of income-generating activities, vocational training, and technical education (IMC, 31/08/2014).
During the first seven months of 2014, 10,055 Afghan refugees voluntarily repatriated to Afghanistan (7,168 from Pakistan, 2,741 from Iran, and 146 from other countries), a 65% decrease on 2013, partly due to uncertainty regarding the elections and the extension of Proof of Registration cards in Pakistan until 31 December 2015 (UN, 09/09/2014).
Afghan Refugees in Neighbouring Countries
As of 30 September, there were 2.5 million Afghan refugees in neighbouring countries (USAID, 01/10/2014).
54 districts in central Afghanistan will be impossible to access in winter, affecting around 750,000 conflict-displaced WFP beneficiaries (OCHA, 15/10/2014).
IDPs that are inaccessible to humanitarian agencies, particularly in insecure districts in Helmand, are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security conditions, having lost much of their access to income and typical coping strategies and not received assistance. Those receiving food and non-food assistance including winterisation packages – displaced households from North Waziristan notably – are classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2), but only due to continued assistance from September through December (FEWSNET, 30/09/2014).
As a result of April-June floods in the north and northeast, affected households will likely be unable to afford both their housing and food needs and may enter in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) if additional humanitarian assistance does not materialize for the period of October through December (FEWSNET, 30/09/2014).
An estimated 2.5 million people were classified as severely food insecure at 31 March (OCHA). A further eight million are food insecure (ECHO, 27/08/2014).
Agriculture and Markets
An estimated 30,000 hectares of agriculture land (both irrigated and rain-fed) and perennial crops have been affected by flooding this year (OCHA 15/05/2014).
In July, around 2.4 million people were in need of safe drinking water, sanitation, and hygiene services as a result of the landslides and flashfloods of the first quarter of 2014 (UNICEF, 30/07/2014).
Health and Nutrition
The number of people in need of access to health services has increased from 3.3 to 5.4 million (OCHA). Conflict is causing widespread disruption to health services. At end July, nine health facilities in Helmand remain completely inaccessible due to hostilities (WHO 24/07/2014).
In early September, the first confirmed cholera outbreak of the year was reported in Kandahar province (WHO 01/09/2014).
The rise of diarrhoea cases registered by the health clinic in Gulan refugee camp, Khost province, shows difficulties in accessing safe water sources (UNHCR 21/07/2014).
Over 500,000 children under five (4% of children under five) are severely malnourished. Provinces in need of urgent attention are Uruzgan, Nangarhar, Nuristan, Khost, Paktia, Wardak, Kunar, and Laghman, where GAM rates are breaching WHO’s 15% threshold for an emergency (National Nutrition Survey, OCHA 31/07/2014).
As of 31 March, 53,000 people had died from acute malnutrition, and 45% of 420,000 deaths among under-fives were attributable to under-nutrition (OCHA).
As of 24 September, ten polio cases have been reported, mostly in conflict-affected areas. The two latest cases were reported from previously uninfected Kandahar and Paktika provinces in 2014 and are linked to transmission across the Pakistan border (Global Polio Eradication Initiative, 24/09/2014).
Extensive cross-border movement is a major challenge. Afghan and Pakistani authorities agreed in July to cooperate in an anti-polio campaign in the border areas of their countries (DAWN, UNICEF 12/07/2014).
Around 1.7 million people are in need of protection assistance, mainly IDPs and people otherwise affected by conflict. IDPs need durable solutions for their protracted displacement (OCHA).
Protection concerns are growing for Pakistani refugees and Afghan returnees in Khost province. Access to women and girls in Gulan camp remains a challenge (UNHCR 23/07/2014). The presence of landmines is also of concern.
The Afghan National and Local Police and three armed groups (Taliban, Haqqani Network, and Hezb-e-Islami) have been listed for recruitment and use of children.
The Taliban has been listed for attacks on schools and hospitals (Watchlist on Children and Armed Conflict 02/06/2014).
Central African Republic Country Analysis
7–15 October: Multiple attacks on peacekeepers and humanitarian workers have been reported in Bangui, and 6,500 people have been displaced (UN, INGO).
- Communal violence surged across the country in 2014, with attacks reported in nearly all prefectures. 5,186 people have died since December 2013 (Government, 16/09/2014). A new wave of violence began on 7 October in Bangui has left thousands people displaced, 20 dead and 159 wounded.
- As of 20 August, 2.5 million people require immediate humanitarian assistance. The entire CAR population of 4.6 million people, half of whom are children, are affected by the conflict (UNICEF, 09/2014).
- 1.7 million people are in Crisis and Emergency phases of food insecurity (FAO, 17/09/2014).
- 174,000 IDPs, 82,000 of whom are in the capital Bangui (OCHA, 15/10/2014).
- 424,200 mostly long-term CAR refugees are registered in neighbouring countries (OCHA, 15/10/2014).
Health, protection, food, and WASH are the priority needs in CAR, as violence, looting, and displacement have all led to a massive deterioration in the humanitarian situation across the country, affecting the entire population. Even prior to the crisis, basic services covered only a limited part of the territory.
Fighting between predominantly Christian anti-balaka militias and majority Muslim ex-Seleka fighters, and civilian mob violence, have caused mass displacement, targeted killings along communal lines, and human rights abuses since December 2013. The Government has virtually no control of the territory, and new warlords have established dominance over a number of territories.
On 24 September, the Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court announced the opening of an investigation in CAR for crimes allegedly committed since August 2012 (OCHA, 26/09/2014). On 9 May, the UN Security Council voted to impose sanctions on an anti-balaka leader, an ex-Seleka leader, and former CAR President Bozize.
On 12 May, Chad announced that it was closing its border with CAR (international media, 12/05/2014). Chad has also reportedly deployed security forces to its southern regions, which border CAR (OCHA, 09/05/2014).
National Political Context
On 6 October, anti-balaka demanded that the country's President resign and two of their members quit the transitional Government. This ultimatum came after media reported that USD 10 million of Angolan aid were missing from public funds (AFP, 06/10/2014). Ex-Seleka had already rejected the Government formed in August, and excluded those of its members nominated to the cabinet. (IRIN 23/09/2014).
The head of the CAR National Elections Authority declared in September that elections could not be organised before autumn 2015 at the earliest (Missionary International Service News Agency, 01/09/2014). The UN Special Representative warned that a lengthy postponement of elections risks further worsening the crisis (UNHCR, 03/10/2014).
The ex-Seleka proclaimed a free, independent, and secular state in northeastern CAR in August (UNHCR, 22/08/2014). Ex-Seleka had proposed the division of the country during peace talks in July (US State Department, 24/07/2014). Muslim residents of Bambari, Ouaka prefecture, also made demands for partition in late April, according to international media (25/04/2014).
As of 12 September, at least 5,186 people have died from the violence in CAR (Government, 16/09/2014).
Despite a peace agreement, disarmament operations are increasing tensions across the country, particularly in Bambari, Ouaka. The CAR Government is currently prohibited from rearming by the UN Security Council arms embargo (international media, 12/06/2014).
Seleka (“alliance” in Sango) is a coalition of presumably mostly Muslim opposition movements founded in September 2012, which brought Michael Djotodia to the presidency in a coup in 2013. Djotodia announced Seleka’s dissolution on 14 September 2013, however, the alliance’s fighters were not disarmed and remained active. Djotodia resigned in January 2014, after which a few thousand ex-Seleka took control of the northern part of CAR. Bambari, Ouaka, was reported to be their headquarters in May, according to international media. Numbering an estimated 10,000 fighters, the ex-Seleka are roughly composed of 5,000 core fighters from the largely Muslim northeast and 5,000 foreigners, mainly Sudanese and Chadian (international media 30/09/2014). Rival ex-Seleka groups have clashed on several occasions.
International Military Presence
UN Peacekeeping Mission (MINUSCA)
United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) began operations on 14 September. MINUSCA has a one-year mandate and numbers 6,500 troops and 1,000 police, an increase on the 4,800-strong AU peacekeeping force previously active in CAR (UN, 14/09/2014). MINUSCA is expected to expand to 12,000 by February 2015 (Government 16/09/2014).
French Peacekeeping Forces
Half of the 2,000-strong French peacekeeping mission Sangaris is deployed in Bangui, half in the regions. Its mandate expires in April 2015, but President Catherine Samba-Panza has asked France to extend its military presence until the presidential election.
EU Military Intervention
The EU Force in CAR (EUFOR-RCA) was authorised by the UN Security Council on 28 January, and became operational on 30 April. The force has a six-month mandate and reached its maximum strength of 700 on 15 June. EUFOR-RCA represents the biggest EU military operation in six years.
US Military Assistance
The US is providing logistical support and advisers to African troops operating against the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) in eastern and southeastern CAR.
By early March, anti-balaka armed groups were massively targeting Muslim populations and committing various abuses. In late March, observers noted an increase in both ex-Seleka and anti-balaka activism, and the increased targeting of international peacekeepers.
In late April, renewed ex-Seleka offensives were particularly affecting Ouham and Ouham-Pende. There was fighting between anti-balaka and ex-Seleka in Dekoa, Kemo, and Sangaris was reportedly deployed in Grimari, Ouaka. Further clashes occurred in Nana-Mambere and Nana-Grebizi, and Muslim convoys were attacked in Nana-Grebizi and Ouham-Pende.
Since May, Ouaka has seen intense fighting and increased insecurity. In June and July, violence between anti-balaka and ex-Seleka fighters, and against civilians, caused displacement. Sangaris soldiers failed to put an end to the clashes.
At least 146 people have been killed in Kémo, Nana-Grebizi, and Ouaka prefectures since June (government, 16/09/2014). In July, attacks and clashes between anti-balaka and ex-Seleka were reported in Kouki and Batafango, Ouham, which led to displacement (OCHA, AFP, 01/08/2014). Elsewhere, violence has been less intense. A grenade attack was reported in Paoua, Ouham-Pende, in early July (OCHA, 10/07/2014), and ex-Seleka were involved in clashes with Ugandan troops in Mbomou, according to an INGO.
In the capital Bangui, the security situation is fragile. A deterioration in May saw dozens killed in clashes, and conflict has left a number of people dead since end August.
More than 890 security incidents were recorded between January and September (WHO, 30/09/2014).
Bangui: A wave of violence began on 7 October that has left at least 20 dead and 159 injured. The security situation remains highly volatile, and thousands of people have been displaced, mostly in Bimbo. For the past week, roads have been blocked by armed men or barricades (ICRC, 16/10/2014). (ECHO, 09/10/2014; local media, 30/09/2014).
Kemo: Clashes were reported 13–20 October (ICRC, 16/10/2014). On 22 September, five Muslims were killed by anti-balaka in the Sibut area; international forces were criticised for not intervening. More ex-Seleka fighters are reported in Sibut, resulting in a slower return of IDPs (UNICEF, 09/2014). In Dekoa, on 11 October, ex-Seleka attacked the market. 15 civilians were wounded and four killed (PI, 11/10/2014).
Ouham: On 3 September, five people were killed in a suspected ex-Seleka attack in Nana Bakassa (AFP, 03/09/2014).
Ouaka: The security situation remains highly volatile due to splits among the ex-Seleka and the presence of other armed groups (AFP, 02/10/2014).Clashes between armed groups in Bambari on 2 October led to the intervention of French forces and at least 16 deaths. Fear of Muslims retaliating against the non-Muslim population remains high following the murders of seven Muslim travellers during the first week of October (PI, 11/10/2014).
The LRA has been active in eastern CAR since before the latest crisis, but attacks increased in 2013, as the political crisis left a power vacuum, according to an NGO monitoring report of February 2014.
On 28 September, eight hunters were abducted near Obo town, Haut-Mbomou (UNICEF, 09/2014). As of 30 July, 14 LRA attacks, four deaths, and 86 abductions have been reported since the beginning of 2014. Mbomou and Haut-Mbomou were the most affected prefectures (OCHA).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
As of August, 2.5 million people need immediate assistance (half of whom are children), of an estimated population of 4.6 million (OCHA, 06/08/2014).
Insecurity in some areas of the country has postponed or halted distributions by WFP and other organisations. In the past three months, a 38% increase in overall incidents related to access (security, administrative, and other blockages) has severely affected the supply of humanitarian goods (UN, 26/09/2014).The WFP-managed UN Humanitarian Air Service has also reported shortages of jet fuel.
Bangui: Humanitarian workers are targeted by militias and situation is deteriorating (UN, 17/10/2014).
Bamingui-Bangoran: Humanitarian access is impeded in most areas in Ndele (OCHA, 13/08/2014). The delivery of aid has reportedly been obstructed by local authorities (OCHA, 16/07/2014). Humanitarian actors have suspended activities due to security incidents in September (Premiere Urgence-Aide Medicale Internationale, Danish Refugee Council, 23/09/2014).
Haute-Kotto: A humanitarian mission to Bria in late July revealed that access to the town and its environs was very limited (UNHCR, 08/08/2014).
Ouaka: The FAO warehouse in Bambari was robbed (OCHA, 20/08/2014). Shooting near WFP distribution sites and intrusion by armed people have also been reported (UNHCR, 22/08/2014). As of 25 June, UNHCR reported that clashes in Bambari have hampered access to the area.
Ouham: As of 22 August, humanitarian operations have reportedly been suspended in Batafango for a week due to insecurity (UNHCR, 22/08/2014). In July, insecurity hampered humanitarian access on the road between Bangui and Bossangoa (OCHA, 21/07/2014) and to Batafango, Markounda, and Kouki (OCHA, 30/07/2014).
On 9 June, an estimated 21,000 people, mostly but not exclusively Muslim, were trapped in 12 locations. Very high-risk locations include Boda (Lobaye prefecture), Yaloke (Ombella Mpoko), Berberati (Mambere-Kadei), Bozoum (Ouham-Pende), Boganangone (Lobaye), and the PK5 district of Bangui, while Bouar and Baoro were considered as high risk (UNHCR). The Protection Cluster defines populations as ‘at risk’ when insecurity, restrictions on freedom of movement, and lack of access to humanitarian aid threaten their lives or physical integrity.
Security Incidents Affecting Aid Workers
As of 15 September, 987 security incidents involving aid workers have been recorded in 2014, mostly in Bangui and Bambari. Incidents have increased by 60% since May (OCHA, 17/09/2014). Staff abduction, vehicle theft, death threats and physical attacks have all been reported.
On 8 October, Red Cross volunteers were threaten by unidentified men in Bangui (ICRC, 09/10/2014).
On 5 March, OCHA estimated that 80–85% of Bangui’s minority population had fled. Most of the Muslim population has fled or been evacuated from Yaloke (previously home to 10,000 Muslims), Baoro in Nana-Mambere (4,000 evacuees), Mbaiki in Lobaye, and Boali and Bossemptele, Ouham-Pende, (OCHA).
As of 23 September, there are 174,000 IDPs in displacement sites, including 82,000 in Bangui (OCHA 23/09/2014; OCHA, 15/10/2014). The overall internal displacement figure has been revised from 410,000 (OCHA, 15/10/2014), following an update of displacement figures outside Bangui (OCHA, 11/09/2014).
The dynamics of displacement vary: rural inhabitants seek refuge in the surrounding countryside, while urban inhabitants seek safety in different districts. Armed elements are often present in IDP sites, according to the Multi-Sectoral Rapid Assessment (01/2014).
Bangui: Following renewed tensions and fighting, most inhabitants of Bangui have left for southern areas or IDP camps. Around 6,500 new IDPs were identified in camps the first week of October, essentially in Bimbo. IDPs are reported to spend the night outside the city and head back to their neighbourhood during the day. WASH and health needs are reported to be the most urgent (UNHCR, 14/10/2014).
The most frequently cited needs are housing, security, and non-food items. The number of IDPs at sites in Bangui has fallen by 78% since December 2013 (IOM, 30/09/2014). 91% of IDPs interviewed in Bangui said they intend to leave their site within the next month. 77% of them expressed their will to return to their place of origin, stressing the need for assistance with shelter reconstruction (OCHA, 23/09/2014; IOM, 26/09/2014).
Nana-Mambere: 3,000 newly displaced people have been reported in Bouar, at the border with Cameroon. Need assessments are under way (PI, 16/10/2014).
Haute-Kotto: 13,000 IDPs from Bangui and Bambari have been reported in Bria (ICRC, 16/10/2014).
Nana-Grebizi: The number of displaced in the Kaga Bandoro area doubled in a month to reach 23,000 in early May (UNHCR). Violence in M’Bres in mid-August reportedly forced 1,000 people to flee their homes (OCHA 20/08/2014).
Ouaka: As of 30 September, 14,605 people had been displaced in Bambari since June, and another 15,000 were displaced across the prefecture (OCHA, 05/08/2014; UNHCR, 03/10/2014). At the end of June, IDPs in Bambari urgently needed shelter, latrines, and food, according to an assessment by an NGO in the MISCA, Sangaris, and Saint-Joseph displacement sites.
Ombella Mpoko: An estimated 20,000 IDPs are in Bimbo (OCHA, 30/07/2014).
Ouham: An estimated 14,830 people are estimated to have been displaced in Batafango; 20,000 people are estimated to be displaced in the region (UNHCR, 03/10/2014). 2,000 people have recently been displaced in Kabo and Moyen-Sido as a result of clashes in Batafango (IOM, 25/08/2014).
Refugees in CAR
8,012 refugees and asylum seekers are living in CAR (UNHCR 19/09/2014); an estimated 1,700 South Sudanese refugees were in CAR as of 31 March (UNHCR).
Darfuri refugees in CAR’s Bembere camp (Ouham) face a serious security situation. Aid organisations have withdrawn, leaving people without access to food aid (local media 11/07/2014).
As of 25 June, UNHCR reported that violence in Bambari had interrupted a number of humanitarian programmes for the 1,900 Sudanese refugees residing in the Pladama Ouaka camp.
CAR Refugees in Neighbouring Countries
424,200 CAR refugees are registered in neighbouring countries, 180,000 having arrived since December 2013. 238,500 CAR refugees are registered in Cameroon, 95,700 in Chad (100,000 on 15 May), 66,800 in DRC, and 20,000 in Congo (UNHCR, 03/10/2014; OCHA, 15/10/2014).
Although the Chad–CAR border remains officially closed, refugees continue to arrive at a number of border points and are in a very vulnerable condition: malnourished, dehydrated, and traumatised (UNHCR, 07/2014).
Third-country Nationals Fleeing CAR
As of 15 October, 132,400 people had been evacuated from CAR. Reports indicated that these include CAR nationals, third-country nationals, and returning migrants (OCHA, 15/10/2014).
According to the April IPC classification, 45% of the population, i.e. 1.7 million people, remain at Crisis and Emergency levels of food insecurity: 26%, around 442,000 people, are in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis), and 19%, around 323,000 people are in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) (FAO, 16/10/2014). At 30 September, food insecurity was expected to remain at Crisis level until December in the most conflict-affected areas, due to below-average harvests, lack of income sources, and insecurity limiting access to markets and humanitarian assistance.
Ouham and Ouham-Pende are most affected. All other prefectures are at Crisis level, except Mambere-Kadei (Stressed). Bamingui-Bangoran, Haute Kotto, Vakaga and Sangha Mbaere could not be classified due to insufficient data. Earlier assessments had found that most IDPs were facing at least Crisis food insecurity (FAO, 25/08/2014). In Nana-Bakassa, there are concerns about food insecurity since the population has resorted to negative coping mechanisms (INGO, 07/10/2014).
In Basse-Kotto and Sangha Mbaere, food security is improving but will still remain at a Stressed level until December (IPC Phase 2) (FEWSNET, 30/09/2014).
Between May and June, a shift in coping mechanisms was observed among IDPs. Before, tools and belongings were sold to buy food, and now the majority of people are reducing the number of meals per day to feed their children. Adults have reported spending entire days without eating (IOM, 26/09/2014).
Agriculture and Markets
Food crop production in 2014 is estimated to be 58% below average due to the impact of insecurity and displacement (FAO, 09/10/2014).
Insecurity and difficulties arising from poor road conditions have disrupted market linkages.
Health and Nutrition
The situation in CAR’s health sector was critical even before the current crisis, with MSF documenting mortality rates well above the emergency threshold in several regions. In June 2013, the INGO Merlin reported that 3.2 million people were without access to basic healthcare, a figure that still stands today (OCHA, 23/09/2014). While access to basic services has improved. mainly in Bangui and surrounding districts, 45% of health facilities, mainly outside Bangui, still cannot provide basic health services, according to WHO’s Health Resource Availability Mapping System, completed in May 2014 (WHO, 30/09/2014).
The rainy season and poor living conditions for IDPs increase risks of water and vector- borne diseases (WHO, 30/09/2014).
Thousands of people with HIV no longer have access to antiretroviral treatment.
In early January, it was estimated that malaria constituted the first cause of morbidity in CAR, with serious shortages of anti-malarial drugs in most of the still-functioning health structures.
The nutritional situation in remote villages is of serious concern, 28,800 children are estimated to suffer from SAM (UNICEF, 04/09/2014). 75,000 are expected to be moderately malnourished in 2014 (WFP, 17/07/2014).
According to the preliminary results of the SMART survey in Bangui, there has been a reduction in GAM, from 8% in 2012 to around 5% currently, likely due to the concentration of humanitarian activities in Bangui (WFP, 23/09/2014).
According to aid workers’ testimonies, 60% of parents whose children were admitted to Bangui’s paediatric hospital for SAM presented symptoms that suggested post-traumatic stress disorder (24/06/2014). 550,000 children, about 45% of the children affected by the conflict, need psychosocial support (OCHA, 23/09/2014).
2.6 million people do not have access to improved safe water or improved sanitation (OCHA, 23/09/2014).
At 13 August, 35,000 IDPs and returnees in Bossangoa, Ouham, needed WASH assistance (OCHA).
About 330,000 children in displacement sites do not have access to education (OCHA, 23/09/2014).
According to the Ministry of Education, 45% of schools remained closed across the country on 17 June, down from 65% reported by the Education Cluster in February (OCHA, 17/06/2014). Only 6% of schools were reported open in Kemo and Nana-Grebizi (UNICEF, 17/06/2014). According to the Education Cluster, violence in Bambari since June has caused the suspension of all education activities (Education Cluster, 07/2014).
65% of 165 schools visited by UNICEF in late 2013 had been looted, occupied, or damaged by bullets or shells. As of 25 June, 80% of children were reportedly out of school (WFP, 25/06/2014). Over a third of school students registered in 2012/2013, 278,000 children, had reportedly dropped out in 2013/2014.
Several schools were either attacked or occupied by armed groups or by international forces in August (UNICEF, 04/09/2014).
On 24 June, a human rights group reported that crimes against humanity and war crimes had been, and continued to be, committed in CAR. In late October 2013, attacks, executions and torture of civilians, indiscriminate shelling, sexual and gender-based violence, and forceful recruitment of children were all documented in a report by Amnesty International.
On 24 June, OCHA reported that the number of child soldiers coerced into joining the ranks of various armed groups could approximate 10,000, an upward revision from 6,000 in February. At 19 August, 100 children had been released from armed groups over the last week (UNICEF, 19/08/2014). On 10 June, OCHA reported that 42% of a targeted 2,000 children had been released from armed groups.
In Bangui, women in IDP centres cannot leave their tents after dark, because of the risk of attack and rape (international media, 09/2014).
Shelter and NFIs
Shortages of mosquito nets and jerrycans are significantly hindering the humanitarian response (OCHA, 23/09/2014). The rainy season has worsened living conditions in camps (IOM, 26/09/2014).
Chad Country Analysis
30 September: 6,114 returnees are estimated to be in Kobitey transit site, in Logone Oriental. Urgent humanitarian needs are reported in all sectors, but particularly in Shelter. In Baibokoum and Mbitoye, 3,700 returnees have been identified as very vulnerable (OCHA).
- 95,700 CAR refugees, 20,000 of whom have arrived since December 2013 (UNHCR, 14/10/2014). 340,000 Chadians have returned to their country as of June 2014 (FAO, 07/08/2014).
- 462,700 refugees in Chad as of 12 October (UNHCR, 14/10/2014).
- 2.6 million Chadians are living in food insecurity. Nearly 449,000 people are at Crisis or Emergency levels (IPC Phases 3 and 4) and 2.2 million are at Stressed level (IPC Phase 2) of food insecurity (OCHA, 31/08/2014).
Added to the impact of three major humanitarian crises at its borders (Darfur, CAR, and Nigeria) and the presence of hundreds of thousands of refugees, Chad faces chronic food insecurity, repeated food crises, malnutrition, natural hazards, and outbreaks of disease.
Central African Republic Crisis
On 12 May, Chad’s President Idriss Déby announced that the southern border with CAR would be closed to all except Chadian citizens until the CAR crisis is resolved. The Government deployed additional security forces to the border, and expressed concern that armed fighters might be infiltrating refugee populations in the area. On 16 June, UNHCR announced that it would be investigating reports that people seeking refuge in Chad are being refused entry at the Sido border, in contravention of non-refoulement principles.
Chad withdrew its troops from the African Union Peacekeeping Force in CAR in April, after accusations of violence against civilians. Chad has always denied the charges.
As of 1 August, France had deployed a 3,000-strong counterterrorism operation across the Sahel region. Based in Chad, operation Barkhane is active in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger (Local Media, 01/08/2014).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
3.2 million people are estimated to be in need of humanitarian aid (OCHA, 31/08/2014).
Heavy rainfall in mid-August has impeded the movement of humanitarian personnel towards areas where assistance is required (UNHCR, 19/08/2014). The rainy season starts in June and usually lasts until October.
Heavy rains in Salamat region mid-August resulted in floods that made 1,000 people homeless and displaced 7,000, according to local authorities (IOM, 25/08/2014).
An estimated 90,000 IDPs are living in protracted displacement in the east (OCHA, 19/11/2013). Most were displaced in 2007 by armed conflict between government forces and opposition groups, inter-communal violence, and attacks by criminal groups known as coupeurs de route. Most IDPs would prefer to integrate into their place of refuge or resettlement. However, conditions have not yet allowed a durable solution. Limited information is available on the current situation.
Refugees in Chad
As of 12 October, Chad is host to 462,700 refugees; 364,300 are from Sudan and 95,900 from CAR (UNHCR, 14/10/2014). These arrivals have placed additional burdens on host communities.
156,500 are in Wadi Fira (34%), 113,800 are in Ouaddai (25%), 84,178 are in Sila (18%), and 50,423 are in Logone Oriental (10%) (UNHCR, 16/09/2014). 21,807 refugees are in Dosseye camp, 60 kilometres from CAR border, and 28,474 in Belom camp, Moyen Chari.
From CAR: As of 30 September, there are 95,700 CAR refugees in Chad, 20,000 of whom have arrived since December 2013 and are predominantly in the southern part of the country (UNHCR, 14/10/2014).
Although the Chad–CAR border remains officially closed, refugees continue to arrive at a number of border points and are in a very vulnerable condition: malnourished, dehydrated, and traumatised (UNHCR, 07/2014). Many people are arriving without being registered (OCHA, 16/07/2014). 92% of arrivals lack any form of identity documentation.
Returnees and third-country nationals: As of 22 September, the cumulative total of evacuees from CAR without refugee status, including returnees and third-country nationals, stands at 113,086. 18,150 returnees live in host communities (OCHA, 30/09/2014).
From Nigeria: 1,899 Nigerian refugees are registered in Chad as of 12 October (UNHCR, 14/10/2014).
From Sudan: As of 12 October, 364,300 Sudanese refugees are registered in Chad (UNHCR, 14/10/2014). In Tissi, which is mainly hosting Sudanese refugees, basic services are non-existent (UNICEF, 04/2013).
Refugees, Returnees and Third-country Nationals from CAR
Transit sites: The situation in southern transit sites remains critical. 41,547 people remain in the transit sites of Sido and Doyaba (Moyen Chari), Kobitey and Mbitoye (Logone Oriental) and Djako (Logone Occidental) (OCHA, 30/09/2014).
6,114 people are estimated to be in Kobitey transit site, in Logone Oriental. Urgent humanitarian needs are reported in all sectors. 1,708 shelters need to be built (OCHA, 30/09/2014).
In Sido transit site, Moyen Chari, sanitation and hygiene are of major concerns (OCHA, 30/09/2014).
As of 12 August, over 12,700 people were still in the transit site in Doyaba, Moyen Chari; Chadian authorities want to close the site by the end of October.
The Government has increased the maximum stay in transit centres from ten days to one year to allow the restoration of family links and better prepare relocations.
Temporary sites: 21,231 people are in temporary sites in Chad (OCHA, 30/09/2014).
The Maingama temporary camp, in Moyen Chari, to which people from Doyaba are being transferred, currently cannot absorb the entire population of the site in addition to the 17,316 people living in Sido transit site (OCHA, 18/09/2014). Work is under way to increase the hosting capacity up to 30,000 people and be able to resume transfer from transit sites (OCHA, 30/09/2014).
The temporary site of Danamadja, Logone Oriental, has reached its current maximum capacity with over 11,000 inhabitants, although only 40% of the camp is completed. Humanitarian actors are in discussion with authorities to prepare a new site, a few kilometres from Goré and Danamadja, as an extension (OCHA, 16/07/2014).
30% extra shelters are needed in Gaoui sites, in Zafaye, close to N’Djamena (OCHA, 30/09/2014).
Host communities: In Mandoul and Logone-Oriental, 22 villages host around 11,800 CAR returnees and about 4,500 CAR evacuees. The assistance provided to returnees outside transit sites and temporary camps is very limited, the humanitarian needs are significant, particularly in WASH (OCHA, 30/09/2014).
3,700 returnees in Baibokoum and Mbitoye have been identified as very vulnerable. Shelters are urgently needed. The arrival of about 2,000 cattle with the returnees could lead to conflict, especially with the harvest in October (OCHA, 30/09/2014).
In Moyen-Chari region, an assessment of the humanitarian situation in Kouno and surrounding villages, where 1,091 returnees are living, identified urgent needs in terms of shelter, food and NFIs, medical care including vaccination, water and sanitation facilities, and establishing or reinforcing community coping mechanisms (IOM, 22/08/2014).
In Am Timan, Salamat region, shelter and NFIs such as tarpaulins, sleeping mats and mosquito nets are needed, as many individuals are currently living in makeshift shelters and are exposed to the rain. Food, water, sanitation and hygiene services, as well as health services are urgently needed (IOM, 22/09/2014).
Chadians in Congo
An estimated 1,500 third-country nationals, the majority of Chadian nationality, fled CAR into northern Congo. They live in isolated and difficult conditions, and many have been in border towns for up to two months, receiving no assistance and relying on host communities (UNHCR, 07/2014).
2.6 million Chadians are food insecure, up 9% from 2.4 million at the beginning of this year. Nearly 449,000 people are at Crisis or Emergency levels (IPC Phases 3 and 4) and 2.2 million are at Stressed level (IPC Phase 2) of food insecurity (OCHA, 31/08/2014; 07/10/2014).
Funding difficulties and cuts to transport budgets have forced WFP and UNHCR to severely cut food rations for refugees since 1 July (international media, 12/09/2014; WFP, 14/08/2014). Some 300,000 refugees, primarily from Darfur and CAR, are reported to be among the worst affected. Cereal rations for Sudanese and CAR refugees in Chad have since been increased from 850 to 1,161 kilocalories per refugee per day, still below the normal ration of 2,100 (WFP, 09/10/2014).
The additional cost of refugees and returnees in Logone Oriental, Moyen Chari, Mandoul, and Salamat, in border areas with CAR, is putting pressure on household demand, consumption, and spending (WFP, 07/2014). Staple food prices increased throughout the country in July.
Regional Outlook: Sahel
24.7 million people in the Sahel (Burkina Faso, north Cameroon, Chad, the Gambia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, north Nigeria, and Senegal) are suffering from food insecurity as of 30 September (OCHA, 07/10/2014). Food insecurity in 2014 has risen dramatically compared to 2013, when food consumption was inadequate for 11.3 million people (OCHA, 03/02/2014).
Health and Nutrition
2.5 million people are need healthcare (OCHA, 31/08/2014). Access to quality healthcare for over 330,000 people living in Kanem region is a particular concern. 30 of the 102 health districts are considered non-functional by the Ministry of Health due to lack of resources (OCHA, 19/09/2014).
In the first week of September, 21 cholera cases were reported in Bipare and Guegou, in Mayo-Kebbi (UNICEF, 17/09/2014).
In Djako, Doyaba, Kobitey and Maingama, a resurgence of malaria in sites and temporary camps continues, with a 50% mortality rate (OCHA, 30/09/2014).
Malaria cases have increased in the south as rains have intensified (OCHA, 25/08/2014). In Moyen Chari, IRC has warned about risks of malaria drug shortages (OCHA, 15/09/2014).
In 2014, the number of malaria cases in N'Djamena has increased compared to last year. This trend is confirmed elsewhere in the country, indicating a 28% increase at the national level (UNICEF, 14/08/2014).
152,000 children are severely malnourished as of 30 September (OCHA, 07/10/2014). Kanem, Bahr-El-Gazel, Gera, and Wadi Fira report GAM above the emergency threshold of 15% (OCHA, 19/09/2014).
1.3 million are in need of WASH assistance: only 50% of the population have access to safe water and 12% to adequate sanitation at the national level (OCHA, 31/08/2014).
In the CAR refugee camps, new arrivals are impacting on the quantity and quality of available water (UNHCR, 31/06/2014). Access to WASH facilities for host communities has also been affected by the presence of refugees (UNHCR, 31/07/2014).
UNICEF has reported over 600 unaccompanied minors and separated children and 44 children associated with armed groups since December 2013 (OCHA, 31/08/2014).
Over 105,000 people, the majority of whom were women and children from CAR with no ties with the country, have crossed into the country since December 2013 and are in need of protection (OCHA, 31/08/2014).
Many second and third-generation Chadian returnees are at risk of statelessness, without family links or identity documents, entering Chad for the first time and holding CAR citizenship (UNHCR, 07/2014). Second and third-generation Chadians from CAR have been recognised as de facto nationals by the Government, and UNHCR is working with authorities to formalise recognition and avoid statelessness. The Government will provide birth certificates to every child born in a transit site.
According to government figures, over 300,000 Chadian nationals lived in CAR prior to the current crisis.
Democratic Republic of Congo Country Analysis
19 October: Attacks by ADF-NALU in North Kivu have caused the death of 80 civilians in the last month, and the displacement of an estimated 100,000 people as 13 October (Radio Okapi, 19/10/2014; 13/10/2014).
18 October: The High Representative of the UN human rights mission in DRC was declared “persona non grata” by the government and was expelled of the country (AFP).
15 October: 60% of the roads in South Shabunda, South Kivu, are nearly impracticable due to the rainy season (OCHA).
14 October: 68,200 new IDPs have been recorded in South Kivu since June, bringing the total number to 618,300 (OCHA).
14 October: 7.3 million people are estimated to be food insecure as of 14 October (WFP).
- Internal conflict in the eastern provinces.
- 6.3 million people need humanitarian assistance (OCHA, 01/2014).
- 2.6 million IDPs (UNHCR, 08/2014). Katanga is of particular concern, with 607,000 people displaced across the province (DRC Commission on Population Movements, 08/2014 and OCHA, 07/2014).
- 121,900 refugees, mainly from CAR and Rwanda (UNHCR, 30/09/2014).
- At least 4.1 million people are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels of food insecurity (IPC 30/06/2014).
Needs are highest in the conflict-affected regions of North Kivu, South Kivu, Katanga, and Orientale, where there is large-scale, repeated displacement. IDPs, host populations, and those unable to flee are all vulnerable as insecurity poses multiple protection risks and prevents access to basic services, although needs vary according to geographic area and conflict dynamics.
Political violence and inter-communal strife have persisted for decades, influenced by longstanding tensions with DRC’s eastern neighbours. Counterinsurgency operations and infighting between armed groups disrupt security and stability.
International Political Involvement
On 24 February 2013, 11 states signed a Peace, Security and Cooperation (PSC) Framework agreement for DRC and the region. In January 2014, the Framework members adopted a plan of action, and Kenya and Sudan also agreed to join the process. There are concerns about DRC’s commitment to the Framework, as implementation is not progressing.
On 18 October, the High Representative of the UN human rights mission in DRC was declared “persona non grata” by the government and was expelled of the country (AFP, 18/10/2014).
National Political Context
A long-term cause of the conflicts in DRC and the degradation of human security can be found in the gradual erosion of state authority and capacity, and the subsequent weakness of the central Government.
On 27 September, over 2,000 people took to the streets of Kinshasa to protest a bid by President Kabila to modify the constitution to be able to stay in power in 2016, beyond his two-term limit (AFP, 27/09/2014).
On 30 December 2013, DRC security forces repelled attacks on state facilities in Kinshasa, Lubumbashi, and Kindu. Late May 2014, the International Federation for Human Rights said that the Government’s response had resulted in some 250 civilians and six soldiers killed in Katanga province, and another 71 civilians killed in Kinshasa.
Numerous armed groups are active in the east of the country, causing general insecurity across the region. The UN Stabilization Mission in DRC (MONUSCO) has a mandate until 31 March 2015, as does its intervention brigade charged with “neutralising” foreign and domestic armed groups.
On 25 September, the mandate of the EU mission providing assistance to Security Sector reform (EUSEC) was extended until 30 June 2015 (European Union, 25/09/2014).
Regional Security Context
The presence of armed ex-CAR soldiers in Equateur and ex-Seleka fighters in Orientale province has triggered significant displacement (MONUSCO).
On 2 July, Angola, Burundi, CAR, Congo, DRC, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania and Zambia, agreed to suspend military operations against Rwandan FDLR insurgents for six months in order to give them more time to lay down their arms.
Counter-insurgency and Insecurity in the East
Government and UN troops defeated M23, once the strongest army in the Kivu regions, in November 2013. This was followed by several waves of surrender: the Hutu-dominated militia Nyatura, the Hunde-dominated Alliance for a Free and Sovereign Congo, and the Nduma Defence of Congo. DRC armed forces (FARDC) and MONUSCO counterinsurgency operations have since continued. The UN deployed unarmed surveillance drones in early December to monitor activities on the Rwandan and Ugandan borders
North Kivu is experiencing a resurgence of violence in Beni, Walikale, and Lubero territories, namely from Allied Democratic Forces/National Army for the Liberation of Uganda (ADF-NALU), Nduma Defence of Congo (NDC), Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), and Nyatura (OCHA, 15/10/2014; 16/10/2014). This follows strategic gains by FARDC-MONUSCO in July (AFP, 30/07/2014). The insecurity has resulted in widespread displacement, and rape, kidnapping, and looting are being reported (OCHA, 16/10/2014).
ADF-NALU: Since early October, repeated attacks on villages in Beni territory have been reported, reportedly committed by ADF-NALU, after they assaulted FARDC positions in May-Moya. 80 civilians have been reported killed in the last month (Radio Okapi, 19/10/2014; 07/10/2014; ECHO, 08/10/2014).
NDC: Violence – including SGBV, kidnappings and looting – by Nduma Defence of Congo has been reported in September and October in Walikale territory, North Kivu, (OCHA, 08/10/2014).
Humanitarian actors have raised concerns regarding a potential security vacuum following military redeployment from South Kivu to other provinces, which may lead armed groups to renew activities.
Raiya Mutomboki: Since mid-August, clashes are ongoing between FARDC and Raiya Mutomboki in Shabunda (OCHA, 03/09/2014). Fighting in Mulungu and Kolula areas have displaced 31,550 people to Shabunda territory since March (OCHA and Commission on Population Movements, 06/2014).
Mayi-Mayi Yakutumba: Since 19 August, Mayi-Mayi attacks have been reported against the villages of Penekusu and Nyalukungu, causing inhabitants to flee to Kama, Pangi territory, in Maniema (Radio Okapi, 21/08/2014).
Inter-ethnic violence: 38 Bafuliru people were killed in Mutarule, south of Bukavu, over 6–7 June. Most were killed as they slept in a church.
Insecurity has spread since the end of December 2013 (OCHA). Dozens of new Mayi-Mayi movements, originating mainly from the north, have been created in Manono, Mitwaba, and Pweto territories (the ‘Triangle of Death’) and insecurity spread to Malemba Nkulu and Moba territories. The surge in violence has led to the creation of self-defence groups. Almost 70% of the region’s 500,000 IDPs are between Pweto, Manono, and Mitwaba, and in Malemba Nkulu.
In July, 18 villages located between Kabimba and Kabanga, northeastern Kalemie, were repeatedly attacked by Mayi-Mayi Yakutumba from South Kivu (OCHA, 30/07/2014).
Inter-ethnic violence: Self-defence groups have been created between Moba and Kalemie as conflict between pygmies and Luba intensified (ECHO, 25/03/2014). From 10 to 12 August, a pygmy militia set fire to several villages in Kabalo and Manono areas, allegedly in retaliation for an attack by predominantly Luba Mayi Mayi Kata Katanga militia on the village of Kasinge (AFP, 20/08/2014).
Attacks and incidents are increasingly being reported in Bakaiko, southwest Mambasa, and Irumu, in Ituri district. The Front of Patriotic Resistance in Ituri (FRPI), the Ugandan Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) and Mayi-Mayi Simba are reportedly responsible (OCHA, 15/10/2014; Radio Okapi, 17/10/2014).
LRA: The Ugandan Lord’s Resistance Army is increasing activities in Haut and Bas Uele according to a MONUSCO statement on 8 October, operating in small groups against the civilian population (AFP, 08/10/2014). During the second quarter of 2014, 40 attacks, one death, and 128 abductions were reported, with Haut Uele district registering almost 80% of attacks. The number of abduction incidents was two-thirds higher than in the previous quarter. 92% of the 113,000 IDPs in Bas Uele and Haut Uele are displaced due to LRA activities (OCHA, 30/07/2014).
FRPI: The Front for Patriotic Resistance in Ituri is reported to have resumed violent activities in South Irumu since the beginning of October (MONUSCO, 24/09/2014). Human rights violations and SGBV against civilians have been reported (OCHA, 01/10/2014).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
The mountainous and volcanic terrain, and lack of tarred roads limit access across DRC, and access worsens during the rainy season. In the east, insecurity is a major constraint. 85 incidents involving humanitarian workers had been recorded January–June 2014 (OCHA, 06/2014). Over 250 incidents were registered in 2013.
Katanga: Insecurity and logistical constraints continue to challenge humanitarian access to civilians, especially in the region covering Pweto, Manono, and Mitwaba territories (OCHA, 06/2014). Growing insecurity is hindering the delivery of assistance to up to 500,000 displaced and access to healthcare (OCHA, 06/2014; Médecins Sans Frontières, 09/01/2014). Katanga has the smallest humanitarian community of the four eastern provinces. Agencies are targeted by Mayi-Mayi militias seeking to pillage supplies.
South Kivu: Access to some 42,000 people in Fizi territory has been hampered by insecurity since June. Since the beginning of the year, a dozen security incidents against humanitarian workers has been reported in Fizi territory, which accounts for about 20% of incidents in the province (OCHA, 11/09/2014).
FARDC–Raiya Mutomboki clashes have been hindering access to 120,000 people in Penekusu area, south Shabunda, since mid-August (OCHA, 03/09/2014). The rainy season has rendered 60% of roads in south Shabunda impracticable (OCHA, 15/10/2014).
North Kivu: Renewed fighting between the Union of Congolese Patriots for Peace (UPCP), FDLR, and Nduma Defence of Congo have hampered humanitarian access in Bunyatenge and Kasugho areas and forced several organisations to withdraw their staff temporarily (OCHA, 26/09/2014).
Orientale: 13 INGOs have withdrawn from Haut Uele and Bas Uele since mid-2013 due to lack of funding, leaving thousands of people without assistance, with the most recent withdrawal in September. Several humanitarian organisations have suspended activities in South Irumu as FRPI has resumed activities (OCHA, 01/10/2014).
Insecurity is a major obstacle to access, as are logistical constraints, especially in eastern Tshopo.
On 30 September, heavy rains and strong winds in Fizi territory, South Kivu, destroyed 1,800 people’s houses.
On 2–3 October, a violent storm in Bukama territory, Katanga, left another 4,500 people homeless (OCHA, 08/10/2014).
On 4 October, heavy rains affected 2,000 people in five localities of Masisi territory, North Kivu (ECHO, 07/10/2014).
An estimated 2.6 million people are internally displaced in DRC, and more than 440,000 have fled to neighbouring countries. Population displacement is frequent and often repeated.
2.6 million people are estimated internally displaced at end September, an increase of 100,000 since June (UNHCR, 30/09/2014). 492,000 newly displaced people have been recorded in 2014, 125,000 of whom are in North Kivu and 140,000 in Katanga (UN Security Council, 24/09/2014).
North Kivu: At 900,210, North Kivu has the highest number of IDPs in the country. However, this is a decrease of 13,400 since July. New displacements mainly occurred in Masisi (30%), Walikale (19%), and Lubero (15%). 69% of IDPs live with host families and the rest are in public buildings and camps (DRC Commission on Population Movements and UNHCR, 25/08/2014).
In July, Masisi territory hosted 280,900 IDPs. Almost 124,200 IDPs are in Beni territory. High incidences of malaria, diarrhoea, acute respiratory infections, and sexual violence have been reported (OCHA 09/07/2014). An estimated 22,600 people (3,780 households) fled Mayi-Mayi Morgan activity in Orientale province to Beni territory between June and July (OCHA, 30/07/2014). In August, fighting between FARDC and armed groups displaced nearly 15,000 people in Walikale and Lubero (OCHA, 16/10/2014). As of 4 October, 16,000 IDPs are registered in South Lubero territory (OCHA, 08/10/2014).
Repeated attacks from ADF-NALU since 5 October triggered massive displacement to Eringeti and Beni. As of 13 October, 100,000 people were estimated to have been displaced in less than a week (Radio Okapi, 13/10/2014). 3,800 people are reportedly staying in public spaces in Beni and Oicha (OCHA, 15/10/2014). Hundreds of people from Beni have been reported in Ituri district, Orientale province since 18 October (Radio Okapi, 20/10/2014).
South Kivu: 618,300 IDPs are in South Kivu. The rate of displacement is increasing, with 31,500 reported in the second quarter of the year, and 68,200 in the third. The latest displacements are due to Raiya Mutomboki activities and fighting with FARDC in Shabunda, Kalehe, Kabare, and Mwenga, and to Mayi-Mayi Yakatumba attacks in Fizi territory. (OCHA, 14/10/2014).
Raiya Mutomboki are said to be hampering movement, while preventive displacement for fear of further fighting is occurring between Katchungu and Byangama (OCHA, 08/10/2014).
Katanga: Katanga has had the highest relative increase in IDPs, from 50,000 in March 2011 to 607,220 in August 2014, of half of whom have been displaced since December 2013 (OCHA, 16/10/2014). 297,300 people returned home over July and August as FARDC regained parts of the territory (DRC Commission on Population Movements, 08/2014).
Pweto territory still has the most IDPs in the province with 200,780 people, followed by Manono with 111,920, and Mitwaba with 64,560 (DRC Commission on Population Movements, 08/2014). In Mutabi, 15,000 IDPs remain of the 46,000 who have fled their homes due to Mayi-Mayi Kata Katanga activism since January (OCHA, 25/09/2014). 48,000 people who fled clashes between Luba and pygmies into Tanganyika district between July and August remain in dire need of assistance (OCHA, 26/09/2014)
There are no IDP camps in Katanga: 81% of the displaced live with host families, while 19% live in informal settlements or occupy public buildings in Kalemie, Manono, Pweto, and Moba.
Orientale: As of 19 August, over 400,000 IDPs were hosted in Orientale and living in poor conditions, a 20% increase since April (OCHA quoted by local media, 19/08/2014). Clashes between FARDC and FRPI in Irumu territory, Ituri, displaced 274,200 people in the second quarter compared to 173,800 in the first quarter of 2014. Another 145,900 people returned home (DRC Commission on Population Movements, 06/2014).
An estimated 20,000 people remain displaced since April in the area of Opienge in Bafwasende territory due to fighting between FARDC and the Major Luc militia (OCHA, 01/10/2014).
Haut Uele and Bas Uele have seen a substantial decrease in IDPs, as more people returned home, yet LRA activity continues to cause new displacement. An estimated 113,000 people remain displaced in Bas Uele and Haut Uele, 90% due to LRA activities (OCHA, 16/10/2014).
Maniema: Between January and June, an estimated 85,000 people returned to their homes after FARDC took control of Kabambare and Punia territories (Commission on Population Movements, 06/2014).
In May, over 37,000 people remained displaced in Maniema following clashes between Mayi-Mayi Yakutumba and FARDC in Fizi territory, South Kivu, over March–April.
Refugees in DRC
DRC hosts an estimated 121,900 refugees, mainly from CAR and Rwanda (UNHCR, 30/09/2014).
From CAR: As of 26 September, 22,210 CAR refugees have been registered since December 2013, despite the closure of the border in December (UNHCR). The overall number of CAR refugees in DRC is 68,156 as of 10 October (UNHCR, 10/10/2014).
DRC provincial authorities insist that assistance should only be delivered within camps, making it difficult to support refugees in host communities. By the end of June, 31,500 CAR refugees had relocated to the four camps in Equateur and Orientale provinces (31,028 in Equateur and 478 in Orientale) (UNHCR, 30/06/2014).
From Rwanda: DRC is hosting 40,700 Rwandan refugees (UNHCR, 31/08/2014). At 30 September, 4,495 Rwandan refugees have been repatriated in 2014 (UNHCR, 30/09/2014).
From Angola: 71,750 former Angolan refugees live in DRC: 30,000 people have registered for voluntary assisted repatriation, while some 18,000 have opted for local integration (UNHCR, 31/08/2014). By the end of September, 3,900 had returned to Angola (UNHCR, 30/09/2014).
As of late August, 159,000 DRC refugees had returned to their homes (UNHCR, 30/09//2014).
Returnees from Congo: A free movement of people agreement was signed by DRC and Congo on 3 June. The deal, which has yet to be ratified on each side, would allow nationals living along the 1,300km frontier to cross to the other side for a maximum of three days with a laissez-passer or national identity card. Those wishing to live and work in either country must have a passport and work permit.
Both countries agreed to set up a commission of inquiry on allegations of violence and violations of human rights in the recent deportation of DRC nationals from Congo Brazzaville. Since May 2012, an estimated 119,000 DRC nationals have been repatriated and about 23,000 chose to stay in the Republic of Congo (UNHCR, 05/08/2014). Many forced returnees reportedly have little attachment to DRC and lack access to basic services.
Returnees from Uganda: In Nobili-Kamango area, Beni territory, the repatriation of some 51,000 nationals (8,500 households) has led to increased education needs in the region (OCHA, 30/07/2014).
Returnees from South Sudan: Around 6,200 DRC returnees from South Sudan have been recorded since December 2013 in several localities of Haut Uele, Orientale province (UNHCR, 02/2014).
Returnees from Angola: An estimated 13,000 DRC nationals have been expelled so far (UNHCR, 06/2014).
DRC Refugees in Neighbouring Countries
An estimated 432,960 DRC refugees currently live in neighbouring countries. The largest group can be found in Uganda, with 184,500 refugees (UNHCR, 30/09/2014). There are 72,000 in Rwanda, 64,000 in Tanzania, and 46,000 in Burundi (UNHCR, 31/06/2014).
7.3 million people are estimated to be food insecure as of 14 October (WFP, 14/10/2014). In June, 4.1 million people in 22 of 67 territories were in food and livelihood crisis and were likely to remain food insecure until December 2014 (IPC, 07/2014). The most acutely affected areas (IPC Phase 4) were Punia (Maniema Babira and Bakwame sectors) in Maniema province, and Manono, Mitwaba, and Pweto in Katanga. Other areas facing Crisis conditions (IPC Phase 3) were in South Kivu, the Punia border areas in Maniema province, and Katanga (IPC 30/06/2014). Conflict and displacement along the border with CAR, and armed groups in the Kivu regions, continue to be a cause of food insecurity (FEWSNET, 07/2014).
Health and Nutrition
The health system is weak due to structural problems and violence. Systematic looting of health structures has been reported in various areas of North Kivu (OCHA, 01/10/2014).
As of 8 October, the situation is improving in several health zones of Fizi territory, South Kivu, even though Uvira and Fizi remain above epidemic level with 57 and 89 cases registered 29 September–5 October (OCHA, 08/10/2014). On 18 August, national authorities declared cholera in Uvira health zone had reached epidemic levels, following the interruption of the water supply by the water distribution company due to power cuts (OCHA, 08/2014).
As of July, 10,170 cholera cases, including 205 deaths, have been recorded (WHO). Cholera outbreaks persist in four provinces: North and South Kivu, Katanga, and Orientale (WHO). Over 5,350 cases including 177 deaths have been recorded in Katanga in 2014, a significant decrease compared to 13,726 cases and 348 deaths in 2013 (OCHA, 30/06/2014).
Local health authorities recorded 27,000 cases in 2013 including 491 deaths (case fatality rate 1.8%), a decrease from 30,753 cholera cases and 709 deaths in 2012.
As of 9 October, following a retrospective laboratory review of cases, there have been 68 Ebola cases since the beginning of the outbreak, 49 of which have been fatal, including eight among health workers. 852 contacts have completed the 21-day follow-up (WHO, 15/10/2014).
According to the National Coordination Committee, the overall analysis suggests that the outbreak declared on 24 August in the area of Djera, Equateur, is under control (WHO, 21/09/2014). However, MSF has warned that the outbreak has not yet been contained, partly because not all those who have been in contact with the virus have been traced (MSF, 01/10/2014).
While the outbreak is located far from urban centres, reducing the risk of contagion, the remoteness of the affected population has challenged aid delivery (AFP, 06/09/2014). The epidemic is not related to the current Ebola outbreak in West Africa.
As of 10 August, over 9,000 measles cases had been reported in Katanga province in 2014. Since June, indicators have reportedly exceeded emergency thresholds in Kilwa health district, Pweto territory, the epicentre of the outbreak (OCHA, 20/08/2014).
In July, 21,520 cases of measles including 252 deaths had been reported since the beginning of 2014 (WHO, 07/2014). In 2013, DRC recorded 89,000 cases, including 1,392 deaths.
38 million people in DRC (53.5% of households) do not have access to safe drinking water (UNICEF, 27/03/2014).
As of July, access to water is below the emergency standard of 15L/person/day for most CAR refugees in Equateur and Orientale provinces. It was at 13L/person/day in Boyabu camp, 12L/person/day in Mole camp, 12L/person/day in Inke camp, and far below these numbers in the host communities (UNHCR, 07/2014).
In South Kivu, insecurity in Shabunda and Fizi territories prevents children from attending school (Radio Okapi, 25/09/2014).
In northern Beni territory, North Kivu, 48 schools have been damaged, occupied, or destroyed during FARDC operations against ADF-NALU militants in Kamango, Ruwenzori, and Mbau (OCHA, 11/09/2014).
70% of the 34,000 school-age IDP children in Pweto territory, Katanga province, do not attend school (OCHA, 20/08/2014).
Military, militias, and other armed groups are all accused of repeated abuses against civilians, including arbitrary arrests, extortion, looting, child conscription, sexual violence, and executions.
Rape is used as a weapon of war to intimidate local communities, and to punish civilians. It is also an opportunistic crime. The Government counted 26,340 incidents of rape and other gender-based violence in seven provinces during 2011 and 2012 – and another 15,350 cases in 2013. The actual numbers may be higher (UNHCR cited by Pulitzer Centre on 10/07/2014).
In 2013, over 5,100 incidents of gender-based violence were registered in Katanga. This is almost triple the number of incidents reported in 2012 (1,650). More than 75% of incidents were rapes, with children under 18 making up half of the victims. 70% of victims were IDPs, followed by host populations, and returnees (Katanga Protection Cluster, 05/2014). 95% of incidents were assigned to armed actors.
No significant developments this week, 20/10/2014. Last update: 06/10/2014.
- The estimated number of people in need of humanitarian assistance in the country is around 125,000 people including more than 22,000 refugees (ECHO, 01/08/2014).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
On 12 June, the UN and partners launched a two-year humanitarian Strategic Response Plan targeting 250,000 people. Of the targeted population, 162,500 are Djibouti nationals, 27,500 are refugees, and 60,000 are migrants, mainly from Somalia and Ethiopia.
Shortages in rural areas have led to increased competition for natural resources, particularly along the migration corridor that runs across the country. Stress on rural livelihoods has triggered movements from rural areas towards peri-urban areas of the capital, putting additional pressure on the delivery of basic services (UN, 12/06/2014).
Migrants/refugees continue to report lack of access to food and water during their transit through Obock, while they wait to cross to Yemen. During transit, migrants/refugees are also exposed to theft by criminal gangs, and detention by authorities (Regional Mixed Migration Secretariat, 31/05/2014).
Refugees in Djibouti
22,234 refugees, the majority of Somali origin (20,190), are registered in Djibouti (ECHO, 01/08/2014). There are also 4,220 asylum-seekers, mostly from Ethiopia (3,230). They reside in two camps: Holl Holl and Ali Addeh (UNHCR).
90,000 people are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security conditions in rural areas. In addition, the population is suffering from malnutrition, acute diarrhoea and other diseases.
In Obock and southeast borderside areas, households will remain at Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security levels, due to extended dryness depleting pasture and water resources, threatening pastoralists’ access to food and income. In September, favourable rains replenished pasture and browse in the northwest, improving household access to food. In the northeast, where households are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity, conditions are expected to improve in October, when heys/dadaa rains will allow for the recovery of pasture and browse in coastal areas (FEWSNET, 03/10/2014).
No significant developments this week, 14/10/2014. Last update: 25/07/2014.
- Almost 290,000 people are in need of healthcare (OCHA, 31/08/2014).
- 202,500 people are food insecure and in need of food assistance. 49,000 children are acutely malnourished (OCHA, 31/08/2014).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
289,200 people are in need of immediate humanitarian assistance, following increasing commodity prices, resurgence of epidemics, and limited access to basic social services (OCHA, 31/08/2014).
Refugees in the Gambia
As of September 2014, around 9,500 refugees, mostly Senegalese from the Casamance region, live in the Gambia (OCHA, 31/08/2014). Smaller numbers of refugees come from Liberia, Sierra Leone, Côte d’Ivoire, and Togo.
202,500 people are food insecure (OCHA, 31/08/2014). Agencies are warning about the increase in food and fuel prices, which may constitute a high food security risk to rural and urban households (OCHA, 31/08/2014). Late and erratic rains may affect agricultural production in the western parts of the country (OCHA, 29/09/2014).
The Ebola epidemic in neighbouring countries is further aggravating food insecurity, as the crisis has affected tourism, a significant source of income (Reuters, 01/10/2014).
Sahel Food Crisis: Regional Overview
24.7 million people in the Sahel (Burkina Faso, north Cameroon, Chad, the Gambia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, north Nigeria, and Senegal) are suffering from food insecurity as of 30 September (OCHA, 07/10/2014). Food insecurity in 2014 has risen dramatically compared to 2013, when 11.3 million people had inadequate food (OCHA, 03 /02/2014).
Health and Nutrition
Around 290,000 people are in need of healthcare, over 15% of the population. The supply of essential drugs is low, as is laboratory capacity. Staff and equipment are not sufficient to meet the most urgent needs (OCHA, 31/08/2014).
There have been sporadic outbreaks of meningitis in all regions, but particularly in the east of the country; in the Upper, Lower, and Central River regions (OCHA, 31/08/2014).
Around 49,000 children are reported to be acutely malnourished, of whom 7,800 children suffer SAM (OCHA 31/08/2014). This represents 3,000 more SAM cases than in July 2013 (OCHA 25/07/2014). The nutrition situation is particularly dire in Central and Upper River regions, with GAM rates above the 10% serious threshold (OCHA, 31/0809/2014).
287,000 people are in need of WASH assistance. Inadequate access to safe drinking water, basic sanitation, and poor hygiene practices continue to be an issue. 20% of deaths among under-fives are WASH-related (OCHA, 31/08/2014).
17 October: As of 14 October, 1,519 Ebola cases, including 862 deaths, have been reported (WHO).
15 October: The President recalled retired physicians and health workers to join the EVD response (AFP).
14 October: The trial of 55 people arrested after violent demonstrations in Nzerekore on 28 August began. OHCHR has noted that the trial is not “in full compliance with international due process and human rights standards” (UNMEER).
- 3.86 million people in need of assistance (OCHA, 16/09/2014). 3,700 children in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea in need of protection (UNICEF, 30/09/2014).
- Between March and 14 October, 9,191 cases of Ebola and 4,546 deaths have been reported in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone (WHO, 17/10/2014). The numbers of registered cases and deaths in all three majorly affected countries seem to underestimate the real magnitude of the outbreak (WHO, 16/08/2014).
- The epidemic has since outstripped the health system’s capacity for response and control (OCHA, 16/09/2014), leading to an increase in non-Ebola related child morbidity and mortality (UNICEF, 26/08/2014).
The opposition Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG) figure Amadou Oury Diallo was murdered on 15 September in Conakry; UFDG has claimed a political assassination (International Crisis Group, 01/10/2014).
After pro-opposition rumours about President Condé’s health, Condé accused the opposition of fuelling tension in an attempt to push for a military coup (International Crisis Group, 01/10/2014).
The trial of 55 people arrested after violent demonstrations in Nzerekore on 28 August has begun. OHCHR has noted that the trial is not “in full compliance with international due process and human rights standards” (UNMEER, 14/10/2014).
On 18 September, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution establishing a special mission to lead the global response to contain Ebola. It called on countries to lift border restrictions on the affected countries and on all actors to scale up their efforts (UN, 18/09/2014).
Cuba has sent 165 health workers to West Africa and 300 more medical workers will be sent (international media, 20/10/2014).
The Ebola outbreak in West Africa has been declared a Grade 3 Emergency under WHO’s Emergency Response Framework (ECHO, 29/07/2014). WHO declared the epidemic a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). On 1 August, West African Ebola-hit nations agreed to impose a cross-border isolation zone at the epicentre of the outbreak (AFP).
Mistrust has led to attacks on people involved in the Ebola response. On 23 September, six Red Cross volunteers were attacked in Forecariah, southwest Guinea, while trying to collect the body of a person suspected to have died from Ebola (AFP, 25/09/2014). The same day, the Prefectural Department of Health was ransacked, causing many injuries.
On 18 September, eight people were found dead in Wome, Nzerekore. They were part of a delegation sent to raise awareness about Ebola, and had been killed by villagers. At least 21 people were wounded (AFP, 18/09/2014). Officials reported that many villagers were suspicious of official attempts to combat the disease (BBC, 19/09/2014). On 28 August, riots broke out in Guinea's second-largest city Nzerekore over the disinfection of a market by health workers (international media, 30/08/2014). The resistance of the population against the spraying of homes and villages is still high, according to UNICEF (UNICEF, 26/09/2014).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
3.86 million people need assistance due to the consequences of the Ebola outbreak (OCHA, 16/09/2014).
Poor road infrastructure means many communities outside the capital are inaccessible (OCHA, 16/09/2014).
WFP has begun food distributions as Ebola containment measures are hindering food access, and has reached around 40,000 people in Biffa, Fria, Telemele, Nzerekore, Macenta, and Gueckedou. 464,000 people have been targeted (WFP, 03/09/2014). WFP said its capacity to feed people in quarantined areas is being hampered by a funding shortage; only 14% of emergency relief programmes have been funded (international media, 26/09/2014).
In February, FAO reported that over 220,000 of 6.7 million people were severely food insecure in Boke, Kindia, Conakry, and Nzerekore. An additional 1.8 million were estimated moderately food insecure (FAO, 02/2014).
Monthly prices remained stable between August and September, except in Labé market, where rice prices fell by 21% (WFP, 29/09/2014). Since the outbreak, food prices have risen in Guinea and Senegal border areas: palm oil prices have increased 40% and coffee prices have increased 50% in less than four weeks. Traders also indicate a 50% drop in market activities (WFP, 15/09/2014).
Health and Nutrition
The Ebola epidemic has outstripped the health system’s capacity, leading to an increase in non-Ebola related child morbidity and mortality (OCHA, 16/09/2014; UNICEF, 26/08/2014).
As of 14 October, 1,519 Ebola cases, including 862 deaths, have been reported in Guinea (WHO, 17/10/2014). As of 8 October, women made up 54% of Ebola cases (WHO, 08/10/2014). However, the utility of case numbers has been questioned; statistics are reported to be highly unreliable due to a lack of a comprehensive contact tracing, timely case investigation, and rapid Ebola testing (UNICEF, 06/09/2014).
Another spike in new cases was reported in Conakry on 12 October, despite an apparent decrease in case numbers in July (UNMEER, 10/10/2014; WHO, 15/10/2014). The nearby district of Coyah, and the districts of Nzerekore and Kerouane have also shown a significant increase in new. Transmission in Macenta remained intense between 6 and 12 October (WHO, 15/10/2014). In the east of the country, at the border with Côte d’Ivoire, the districts of Beyla and Lola both reported new cases (WHO, 15/10/2014). The district of Boke, at the border with Guinea-Bissau, has reported active transmission for the first time in more than 21 days (WHO, 15/10/2014). And Mamou district has reported a confirmed case for the first time (WHO, 15/10/2014).
Containment measures: On 15 October, the President recalled retired physicians and health workers to join the EVD response (AFP, 15/10/2014). Guinea declared the Ebola outbreak a "health emergency" on 13 August. President Alpha Conde announced a series of measures including strict controls at border points, travel restrictions, and a ban on moving bodies from one town to another until the end of the epidemic. All suspected victims will automatically be hospitalised until they are cleared of infection (AFP, 14/08/2014).
At 14 October, the total cumulative number of reported cases across the region had reached 9,191, including 4,546 deaths. Three cases in the USA and one case in Spain have been confirmed (WHO, 17/10/2014). The outbreaks in Senegal and Nigeria are officially over, with no new case reported for 42 days (WHO, 17/10/2014, 20/10/2014).
Expected evolution: According to a WHO projection, the aggregate caseload could exceed 20,000 by early November (WHO, 28/08/2014). According to the Center for Disease Control (CDC), if the virus continues to spread at the current rate, Liberia and Sierra Leone will have reported about 550,000 Ebola cases by late January. The CDC estimates that officially reported cases are about 40% of the real burden in Liberia and Sierra Leone, indicating a possible total of 1.4 million cases in Sierra Leone and Liberia by late January (CDC, 23/09/2014).
At least 3,700 children in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone have lost one or both parents to Ebola since the start of the outbreak, and many are being rejected by their relatives for fear of infection (UNICEF, 30/09/2014).
Iraq Country Analysis
12 October: Anbar governorate's police chief was killed by a roadside bomb (AFP).
12 October: Three suicide car bombings in a Kurdish-controlled town north of Baghdad killed at least 40 people, mostly Kurdish forces veterans. The Islamic State (IS) claimed that the bombers were German, Saudi and Turkish (AFP).
- Approximately 1,120 Iraqis were killed in September and an estimated 1,950 others were injured. Violence killed at least 1,420 in August, 1,737 people in July, and 2,400 in June (Reuters 01/09/2014).
- According to revised planning figures by OCHA, the number of IDPs across Iraq has reached a total of 1.8 million (UNICEF 01/09/2014). There were 1.13 to 1.3 million displaced before 2014 (UN, IOM, 12/2013). IDPs are dispersed across 17 of Iraq’s 18 governorates (07/2014).
- 5.2 million Iraqis, including IDPs, host communities, and vulnerable populations in besieged areas, require some form of humanitarian assistance. An estimated 2.2 million individuals requiring emergency assistance remain beyond the reach of aid agencies (UN 25/09/2014).
- 17 of 31.7 million Iraqis (53.7% of the total population) are affected by the current crisis. The UN estimates that approximately 1.5 million individuals are in need of humanitarian aid (UNICEF 26/08/2014)
- 215,387 Syrian refugees (UNHCR 30/09/2014).
- Large numbers of severely food insecure due to loss of assets and income opportunities, and disruptions of supply routes (FAO/FEWSNET, 25/06/2014).
- Only one of three official border crossings with Syria is still in the hands of the central Government. Another is controlled by Kurdish forces. IS controls the third (AFP, 21/06/2014).
- A severe fuel shortage and recent cuts to electricity and water services are exacerbating the humanitarian crisis (Mercy Corps, 03/07/2014).
Priority humanitarian needs are food, water, and fuel. Protection and the risk of disease outbreak are also concerns. The conflict has led to massive internal displacement, consisting of three large waves of displacement: Anbar in January, Mosul in June and Sinjar in August (OCHA 25/09/2014). Iraq now hosts one of the largest internally displaced populations in the world. Host communities are being increasingly stretched.
National Political Context
On 11 August, Haider al Abadi – former Deputy Speaker of the Iraqi parliament – was appointed the new Prime Minister by President Fuad Masum. Abadi was nominated by the Shia National Alliance parliamentary bloc. The parliament has accepted a new government. Abadi named three deputies: Hoshyar Zebari, the Kurdish outgoing foreign minister, Saleh al Mutlak, a secular Sunni, and Baha Arraji, a Shi’a Islamist (ISW, BBC 09/09/2014).
Kurdistan Region of Iraq
Masoud Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) came first in September 2013’s elections in the autonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KR-I). KDP and PUK have ruled through a coalition government since 2005. Barzani’s term has been extended to 2015, which the opposition has denounced as illegal.
KR-I’s relations with Baghdad are tense. Baghdad insists it has the sole right to export Iraqi resources, including those from KR-I.
Wider regional politics are also an issue: the KDP is keen to retain influence over the Syria’s Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), which has also links to the Iraqi PUK and the Turkish Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
The Security Council adopted Resolution 2170 condemning gross, widespread abuse of human rights by extremist groups in Iraq. The resolution calls for member states to suppress the flow of foreign fighters, financing, and other support to Islamist extremist groups in Iraq and Syria (UN, 15/08/2014).
Approximately 1,120 Iraqis were killed in September and an estimated 1,950 were injured (UN). Baghdad and Salah Al Din governorates were the most affected, collectively incurring more than 58% of the total deaths in September. The conflict has resulted in more than 9,300 civilian deaths countrywide since January. At least 1,420 people were killed in August. The UN said the casualty figures could be far higher but it could not get independent verification of reports of hundreds of incidents in areas under IS control (Reuters 01/09/2014).
Around Iraq's key oil refinery town of Baiji, the army and tribal allies came under fresh IS attack. The US-led coalition airdropped ammunition, food, and water to the refinery’s its besieged defenders on 10 and 11 October (AFP 12/10/2014).
In Anbar governorate, heavy fighting continues between IS and affiliated armed groups and Iraqi armed forces, supported by Sunni militias, in Hit. On 6 October, an Anbar government official stated that 3,000 Islamic State (IS) fighters had arrived in the region from Mosul and Syria to reinforce the group’s advances, and IS took control of Hit. Fighting began in Ramadi on 12 October. Coalition airstrikes are being conducted on IS positions in and around Hit. In Falluja, intermittent clashes in residential districts continue (OCHA 12/10/2014).
On 30 September, Pershmerga forces launched an operation clearing IS from the Iraq–Syria border town of Rabia’a (ISW). Cooperation between the Iraqi army, Iraqi special forces, Peshmerga and anti-IS militias continues.
Since the fall of Mosul on 10 June, armed opposition groups, including Baathists, tribal militias, members of the former Government and military, along with IS, have taken control of large swathes of Iraq’s provinces of Ninewa, Salah Al Din and Diyala. On 18 August, Kurdish forces took control of the Mosul dam, with the support of US military air strikes (FT, 18/08/2014).
IS, formerly the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant and an outgrowth of Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), has taken over large swathes of territory in northern and eastern Syria. The CIA estimates that Islamic State has between 20,000 and 31,000 fighters in Iraq and Syria (BBC 15/09/2014).
On 29 June, IS declared the establishment of a Sunni caliphate, straddling Syria and Iraq, spreading from Aleppo in northern Syria to Diyala in eastern Iraq. Its chief Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi was declared caliph and leader for Muslims everywhere (AFP, 29/06/2014, 30/06/2014; Washington Post, 11/06/2014; ISW, 11/06/2014).
In early August, Kurdish forces from Iraq, Syria, and Turkey joined forces in north Iraq to launch an offensive against the Islamic State (IS) in order to reclaim areas lost to the armed group. A senior official from Iraq's PUK party said Kurdish fighting units from the Peshmerga, the Syrian-based PYD and the Turkish PKK had agreed to share responsibility for the counter-offensive (AFP).
Thirty countries pledged on 15 September to help Iraq fight Islamic State (IS) militants by all means necessary (BBC 15/09/2014). US warplanes began air strikes against IS in August.
Humanitarian Context and Needs
A Level 3 emergency was declared by the Inter-Agency Standing Committee on 12 August. The move is expected to support a more effective response to the humanitarian needs of the affected population (UNAMI, 13/08//2014).
5.2 million Iraqis, including IDPs, host communities, and vulnerable populations residing in besieged areas, require some form of humanitarian assistance. An estimated 2.2 million individuals requiring emergency assistance remain beyond the reach of aid agencies (UN 25/09/2014). The overall number and geographical spread of the displaced population pose a major challenge.
Blocked roads connecting cities in Anbar, Salah Al Din, Ninewa and Diyala governorates are hindering humanitarian efforts. Shortages of electricity, fuel, and chlorine are worsening conditions.
Several international NGOs have suspended activities in besieged areas, particularly those controlled by IS. However, many relief organisations continue to provide emergency assistance to affected populations via local implementing partners (USAID 26/09/2013).
Some airlines have cancelled flights to Iraq, and delays in deliveries will have negative consequences on health services for IDPs, refugees, and host populations (WHO 09/09/2014).
Peshkapour-Semalka border: Semalka has been closed since 10 April for Syrian arrivals. However, since 10 June, it remains open for the return of Syrians to Syria. UNHCR successfully advocated for admission into KR-I of child refugees under the family re-unification criterion (UNHCR 01/09/2014).
Al Qa’im border: This border remains under the control of armed groups. The border situation remains fluid, now Syrians and Iraqis are moving back and forth between the two sides of the borders freely. Aerial bombardments and clashes continued in Al Qa’im (border and city), resulting in casualties among civilians. The clashes are a deterrent to the movement of vehicles and people (UNHCR 09/08/2014).
Rabia’a border crossing: As of 15 June, Peshmerga forces controlling the Rabia’a border crossing, kept it closed in both directions, except to humanitarian aid convoys (UNHCR).
Anbar governorate: Thousands of people are reportedly trapped in what are described as siege-like conditions in Falluja and Ramadi. Fighting makes main roads impassable, and several bridges, including one linking Falluja with Baghdad, have been destroyed. Insecurity is preventing access to health services, and some facilities have been damaged. Administrative constraints are also hindering access. Access to Al Qa’im refugee camp is reportedly difficult, though activities can be carried out by helicopter.
Diyala: 75% of key informants assessed in Diyala stated that nobody in their community had received any kind of assistance since being displaced (REACH 18/08/2014, CSM 28/08/2014).
Salah al Din: On 1 September, the siege of Amerli was broken. 35 villages had been under control of IS for more than 80 days, and an estimated 10,000–14,000 people were in need of immediate assistance, particularly food, water, and medical care (UNICEF 01/09/2015).
The flight of 180,000 from Hit is the fourth major displacement in less than a year in Iraq.
According to revised planning figures by OCHA, the number of IDPs across Iraq has reached 1.8 million since January. This number is in addition to people already displaced. The scale of displacement caused by IS’s advance in the north now exceeds that of the Anbar crisis, with more than 620,000 people displaced in August alone (SNAP 04/09/2014). Approximately 35% of IDP families are hosted by relatives; and over 36% are living in rented accommodation or hotels with little to no access to employment (IOM 07/08/2014). The absence of country-wide IDP registration hinders the response.
Reports indicate that approximately 180,000 individuals (30,000 families), have left Hit. Many are experiencing their second, third, or fourth displacement. About 100,000 IDPs were in Hit. The displaced dispersed to Ramadi, Khaldiya, Hajaj and Amiryah Rahaliya. Many found refuge with other IDPs in public buildings. 500 families fled to the sub-district of Nughaib, about 200km from Kerbala. Kerbala is one of the main routes available from Hit and other conflict-affected towns in Anbar governorate for passage to Baghdad, and approximately 400 IDP families are being prevented from entering Kerbala, where authorities have already indicated they are no longer able to support IDPs. The road from Hit to Baiji–Kirkuk is closed due to insecurity (OCHA 12/10/2014).
Fighting across Iraq’s central governorates displaced over 10,000 families to Khanaqin, in Diyala governorate, at the end of August. There was displacement within Salah al Din due to airstrikes in Tikrit and the continued movement of IDPs to the south of Iraq (UNICEF 01/09/2015).
Local authorities are overstretched and under-resourced, unable to deal effectively with the crisis. (IOM, 17/08/2014). There is increasing concern that central governorates are reaching saturation point (OCHA 23/08/2014).
Kurdistan Region of Iraq: An estimated 800,000 - 850,000 IDPs are in KR-I. Dohuk governorate hosts more than 480,000 IDPs (SNAP 04/09/2014). Of the 55,000 IDPs that crossed into Syria from Sinjar in Ninewa governorate, most have made their way into Dohuk governorate through the Peshkapour checkpoint.
Between 16 August and 15 September, a second major wave of displacement from northwestern Iraq into KR-I increased demand on assistance and service provision (UNICEF 23/09/2014).
80% of the recently displaced are housed among host communities in KR-I, and IDPs face discrimination from local communities (IFRC, 13/06/2014; WHO 18/06/2014). Zakho town (population of 350,000) is hosting 100,000 IDPs. Khaniq in Dohuk, with an estimated population of 60,000, has received some 90,000 IDPs (15,000 families) from Sinjar and nearby villages (ICRC, 16/08/2014).
Non-Kurdish Iraqis entering KR-I have to pass through immigration controls and receive only short-stay visas, ranging from one to three weeks; sometimes a Kurdish sponsor is required to gain entry (Middle East Research and Information Project 24/07/2014).
Refugees in Iraq
As of 30 September, Iraq hosts 215,387 Syrian refugees (UNHCR 30/09/2014). Around 94,000 refugees reside in Dohuk, 90,000 in Erbil, and 22,000 in Sulaymaniyah (UNHCR 01/10/2014).
UNHCR reported on 10 October that a growing number of Syrian refugees fleeing Kobane for Turkey are journeying on to Iraq. Between 150 and 200 Syrians have been arriving in KR-I daily over 3–10 October, and the trend is expected to continue (UNHCR 10/10/2014).
Between 29 September and 12 October, 2,821 Syrian refugees crossed into Dohuk governorate; about one third had been smuggled across the border. The refugees are being transferred to Gawlian Syrian refugee camp (OCHA 12/10/2014).
Monitoring in Erbil and Dohuk governorates indicates a wave of urban Syrian refugees arrived in camps in the first two weeks of September (UNHCR 23/09/2014).
KR-I currently hosts an estimated 97% of the registered Syrian refugees in Iraq (UNHCR, 15/05/2014). The remaining 3% reside in a camp near Al Qa’im, Anbar, and in non-camp settings elsewhere across the country. Around 7,600 are awaiting registration. All three KR-I governorates (Dohuk, Erbil, and Sulaymaniyah) have different policies towards Syrian refugees, leading to challenges in coordinating the humanitarian response.
Around 42% of registered refugees are in camps, and the remaining 58% are predominantly scattered in and around urban centres. Information on their humanitarian situation is limited (UNHCR, 24/08/2014). 41% of refugees in KR-I are under the age of 18. It is unclear to what extent the influx of IDPs has affected refugee needs and response.
Domiz camp is overcrowded. However, up to one-third of refugees receiving assistance in the camp reported that they are living outside the camp. A livelihood assessment across all refugee camps in KR-I found that 47% of respondents had no source of income in the 30 days preceding the assessment, and only 20% were fully able to meet their household basic needs. Some 81% of households found food by far the most significant share of expenditure, and 58% had contracted debts since arriving (UNHCR and REACH, 06/2014).
Returnees to Syria: 1–15 September, 2,368 Syrians returned to Syria from KR-I via the Peshkapour crossing point, bringing the total number since the beginning of January to 25,501 (UNHCR 23/09/2014).
Anbar: 247 Syrian refugee families are in Al Obaidy camp. UNHCR has no direct access to Al Obaidy (UNHCR 23/09/2014).
During the first quarter of 2014, the number of registered protracted (non-Syrian) refugees and asylum seekers was 39,480.
Iraqi Refugees in Neighbouring Countries
Jordan: Between 1 January and 23 September, UNHCR registered more than 10,600 Iraqi refugees in Jordan. UNHCR has reported an 85% increase in arrivals during August and September, compared to June and July, with an average of 120 Iraqis registering daily (USAID 26/09/2014).
Lebanon: Lebanon hosts nearly 7,500 registered Iraqi refugees and a further 1,200 are awaiting registration (USAID 19/09/2014).
Syria: An estimated 15,000 Yazidis are seeking refuge in Al Hasakeh. Most are in the Newroz camp near Qamishli, run by local NGOs.
Turkey: As of 23 September, UNHCR and local partners in Turkey had registered or pre-registered more than 103,000 Iraqi refugees during 2014, including an estimated 64,000 who have fled northern Iraq since early June. Estimates of actual numbers, including unregistered refugees, reach more than 200,000 (USAID 26/09/2014).
Approximately 1.5 million individuals, who are in the lowest 20% income group have already become highly food insecure and are now in need of emergency food assistance (OCHA 25/09/2014).
Based on assessment data from September, 73% of IDPs surveyed have stated that food is their primary concern. According to WFP, food is expected to be a priority for more than 1.8 million people. This includes IDPs, host communities, and vulnerable groups.
As a result of major funding constraints, WFP is scaling back its assistance to Syrian refugees in October, decreasing its voucher value in Domiz camp by 20%. WFP vouchers in Domiz, which assist 70% of all Syrian refugees residing in camps in Iraq, will decrease from USD 31 to USD 25 per person per month (WFP 06/10/2014). School feeding for some 12,000 children has already been halted (UNHCR 23/09/2014). Food assistance to non-camp refugees is currently prohibited (UNHCR 09/07/2014).
12% of households settled outside camps across KR-I reported lack of food. 13% of households were found to have borderline food consumption in Sulaymaniyah, compared to 4% in Erbil 1% in Dohuk (UNHCR/REACH 14/09/2014). Host communities in Sulaymaniyah and Najaf are under tremendous strain, according to OCHA.
More than four million individuals, who are not displaced, but who relied on the now-collapsed central procurement and public distribution system for more than 50% of their energy intake, have had their household food security compromised (OCHA 25/09/2014).
Furthermore the crisis has impacted the June cereal harvest and post-harvest activities in key production areas such as Ninewa and Salah Al Din governorates, which contribute nearly a third of Iraq's wheat, thus reducing overall food availability (OCHA 25/09/2014).
Data collected in May found that 12% of Syrian households in KR-I refugee camps reported having no source of income in the 30 days preceding the assessment, with the number reaching 21% in Gawilan. 5% of refugee households across KR-I were unable to meet their basic needs. 52% of households reported having borrowed money since their arrival. Household items and shelter improvement were most commonly reported as priority needs (UNHCR/REACH 17/09/2014).
The crisis has impacted the May/June cereal harvest and post-harvest activities in key production areas such as Ninewa and Salah Al Din governorates, which account for nearly a third of Iraq's wheat production and about 38% of its barley (OCHA 18/07/2014). Animal diseases are already a threat to the livestock population in Iraq (FAO, 25/06/2014).
Health and Nutrition
Shortages of essential drugs have become an increasing concern in urban health facilities since supply routes from Baghdad are disrupted (UNHCR 30/09/2014). While humanitarian actors are able to mobilise resources to cover gaps in medicines in refugee camps, people in urban settings increasingly have to purchase medication in public or private pharmacies (UNHCR 23/09/2014).
In Ninewa governorate there are concerns over possible outbreaks of communicable diseases due to interruptions to services (WHO 09/09/2014). In Sinjar district, the General Hospital and 16 of 19 primary health centres are non-functional.
In Salah al Din, only three out of nine public health facilities are functioning, according to WHO. Patients from from Tikrit, Baiji, and Sharqat are referred to already overwhelmed hospitals in Mosul and Kirkuk, although violence, fuel shortages and road access difficulties are affecting ambulance services.
All hospitals and health centres are dependent on generators, and fuel supply is a major problem. Critical shortages of essential medicines, vaccines and supplies are reported in Mosul, areas of Salah al Din, and Anbar. The embargo on cargo flights has stopped the medical supply chain at a time when additional provisions are urgently needed (OCHA 18/07/2014). Health facilities in conflict-affected areas also report a shortage of medical staff (OCHA 01/08/2014).
KR-I: The KR-I Ministry of Health has reported critical shortages in medicines and medical supplies and overcrowded health facilities (PI 17/06/2014). Since mid-June, frequent power cuts are endangering health service provision in refugee camp health centres (UNHCR 22/07/2014).
Data collected in May found that 24% of camp-based Syrian refugee households across KR-I had one or more sick members of the household in the two weeks preceding the assessment, with the highest incidence of illness reported in Domiz II (36%) and Domiz (26%). The most common ailments were respiratory tract infection and diarrhoea. Of the households who reported having required health assistance since arriving in the KR-I, 24% reported difficulties accessing care, notably due to lack of availability of treatment at the public health clinic, followed by insufficient funds to purchase medicine at the pharmacy (UNHCR/REACH 17/09/2014).
44% of refugee households in KR-I host communities have had at least one member requiring medical assistance. Of those, 36% considered they received no or incomplete care. Nearly half of households reported they had to pay all related costs. Main access problems were fairly consistent across KR-I, with cost being the single most important factor (UNHCR/REACH 14/09/2014).
An estimated 20% of the non-camp refugee population encounters difficulties in accessing health services. Key obstacles include financial costs as well as perceived availability of services (UNHCR 09/07/2014). Health services have restarted in Gawilan and Bardarash refugee camps, which had closed in June/July for security reasons (WHO 09/09/2014).
The number of diarrhoea cases is increasing in all camps in KR-I (UNHCR 31/07/2014).
WHO reports an increase in measles cases, with over 800 cases documented since January in the areas covered by the EWARS (Early Warning and Reporting System), and primarily in KR-I (WHO 06/07/2014). Measles is endemic in Mosul and could spread in overcrowded areas (WHO, 16/06/2014).
The national polio immunisation campaign conducted 4–14 August was interrupted in Sinjar district due to insecurity, lack of qualified personnel, and electricity shortages (WHO 09/09/2014).
Fighting in Anbar, particularly near the city of Ar Ramadi, is preventing humanitarian actors from providing WASH assistance to conflict-affected Iraqis (USAID 03/10/2014).
Access to clean water is a critical, life-threatening problem in conflict-affected areas and among populations under the control of armed groups. Power cuts, fuel shortages, disruption to supply routes, and the seizure of municipal water facilities has left communities without clean water (OCHA, 15/08/2014). There is concern of the risk of waterborne diseases due to poor sanity conditions, especially in the extreme heat (UN, 18/08/2014).
The lack of water treatment technology, specifically water treatment plants, on the local market in KR-I is a challenge for WASH operations in the Syrian refugee camps (UNHCR 23/09/2014).
In KR-I, 6% of refugee households settled in host communities reported not having sufficient water to meet household needs; with the highest proportion found in Dohuk (14%). 36% of households in KR-I reported that their drinking water was unsafe. Of these, 59% stated that they did not treat it in any way (UNHCR/REACH 14/09/2014).
IS is reported to have disrupted water supply to the Balad Ruz area (Diyala governorate) by manipulating the Sudur mini-dam (ISW 02/09/14).
An estimated 580,000 people are in urgent need of emergency shelter assistance. The latest wave of displaced could only bring few belongings. It is estimated that at least 800,000 persons are lacking basic NFIs.
Shelter is a major challenge. About 390,000 IDPs in KR-I are estimated to be in need of shelter and currently living in schools, under bridges or out in the open. Camps are being built and will accommodate 220,000, leaving a gap of about 170,000 people (UN 07/10/2014). 3% of refugee households settled outside camps within KR-I reported living in precarious types of housing. 33% of households in Dohuk perceived their accommodation to be inadequate, as did 19% in Erbil and Sulaymaniyah (UNHCR/REACH 14/09/2014).
The influx of IDPs into KR-I has had a major effect on the start of the school year, scheduled to begin on 10 September. In Dohuk, the start of the school year has been postponed in non-camp areas due to the presence of IDPs in school buildings (UNHCR 23/09/2014).
Half of the 5,746 schools in KR-I are estimated to be occupied. Over half of the country’s 95,666 teachers are also affected by the displacement (UNHCR 24/08/2014). Over 500,000 IDPs are estimated to be of school age (UNICEF 02/09/2014).
In Dohuk governorate alone, around 650 schools are still being used to host families displaced over the summer break (Save The Children 09/09/2014).
The Directorates of Education in the governorates affected by the crisis are continuing to postpone final exams for students from the 6th, 9th, and 12th grade. Reportedly these examinations were disrupted by IS demanding an IS-approved curriculum in Anbar and Ninewa (UNICEF 10/09/2014).
Refugees: Delays have been reported issuing residency cards in Erbil. Access to services is linked to the possession of a residency card, and refugees’ access to education has been compromised (UNHCR 30/09/2014).
65% of the 57,000 school-aged refugee children in Iraq are out of school. The current rate of enrolment in camps is 55% for primary education and less than 1% for secondary. Outside the camps the enrolment rate is lower, at 22% of the school-age population. The main barriers are: very limited capacity in schools with the Arabic curriculum; high levels of dropout in schools with the Kurdish curriculum due to lack of support for second-language speakers; lack of textbooks and other education materials; and lack of teachers (UNHCR 09/07/2014). Only 39% of school-aged children of non-camp-based Syrian refugee households attend school across the region. Erbil had significantly higher rates of households reporting having no child attending school (76%) than Dohuk (45%) and Sulaymaniyah (39%). The main reason was lack of funds (UNHCR/REACH 14/09/2014).
A UNHCHR/UNAMI report details substantial humanitarian law violations and human rights abuses by armed actors in conflict areas between 6 July and 10 September, including targeted attacks, abductions, forced conscription, human trafficking, and sexual assault against Iraqi civilians, particularly women and individuals from ethnic and religious minority groups. International media sources report that armed actors are also attacking civilian infrastructure, such as health facilities and schools (USAID 03/10/2014).
19% of refugee households across KR-I did not know where to obtain either birth, marriage and death certificates or residency cards. The proportion was far higher in Erbil, at 49% (UNHCR/REACH 14/09/2014).
Many IDPs have fled without proper identification, and the numerous Peshmerga checkpoints at KR-I borders and in disputed neighbouring areas significantly limit freedom of movement (PI, SNAP 04/09/2014).
Many IDPs have fled without proper identification, and the numerous Peshmerga checkpoints at KR-I borders and in the disputed areas of neighbouring governorates significantly limit their freedom of movement (SNAP 04/09/2014).
The Residency Department in Sulaymaniyah has stopped issuing residence permits to Syrian asylum seekers who have been registered in Erbil (UNHCR 25/08/2014).
IDP children suffer from psychosocial distress, limited access to basic resources and a lack of a safe environment; are at risk of violent attacks. They are at increased risk of exploitation including child labour. There are no special services available for children with disabilities or special needs (ACTED, 17/08/2014).
17 October: As of 13 October, 4,262 Ebola cases, including 2,484 deaths, have been reported (WHO).
13 October: The Liberian Parliament did not grant President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf emergency powers to suspend several provisions of the Constitution including the right to free movement, free speech, and prohibitions on forced labour (UNMEER).
- 3.37 million people are in need of assistance (OCHA, 16/09/2014). The Ebola outbreak have completely outstripped the Government’s and international actors’ capacity to respond and control the epidemic (WHO, 08/09/2014).
- Between March and 14 October, 9,191 cases of Ebola and 4,546 deaths have been reported in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone (WHO, 17/10/2014). The numbers of registered cases and deaths in all three majorly affected countries seem to underestimate the real magnitude of the outbreak (WHO, 16/08/2014).
- Non-Ebola medical needs cannot be met (OCHA, 16/09/2014), leading to an increase in non-Ebola related child morbidity and mortality (UNICEF, 26/08/2014).
The Liberian Parliament did not grant President Sirleaf emergency powers to suspend several provisions of the Constitution including the right to free movement, free speech and prohibitions on forced labour (UNMEER, 13/10/2014).
The UN Special Representative acknowledged the "strong need" for the public to have clarity on next steps in the electoral process before 14 October, when the mid-term senatorial elections were due to take place, but have now been postponed (UN, 02/10/2014).
On 30 September, the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare has released a media order requiring journalists wanting to visit an Ebola healthcare facility first to get written permission from the health ministry. On 30 September, the Ministry of Information announced that it will take charge of the accreditation of journalists from now on (international media, 06/10/2014). The Press Union of Liberia had already raised concerns about violations of freedom of information on 4 September: national newspapers have been repeatedly obstructed since the start of the Ebola outbreak (Reporters Sans Frontières, 08/09/2014).
On 18 September, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution establishing a special mission to lead the global response to Ebola. It called on countries to lift border restrictions on the affected countries and on all actors to scale up their efforts (UN, 18/09/2014).
On 16 September, Barack Obama announced the deployment of 3,000 personnel to West Africa to contribute to the Ebola response (international media, 16/09/2014). On 9 October, about 90 additional army troops arrived in Liberia, bringing the total number already there to an estimated 430 (USAID, 15/10/2014). Cuba has sent 165 health workers to West Africa and 300 more medical workers will be sent (international media, 20/10/2014).
The outbreak in West Africa has been declared a Grade 3 Emergency under WHO’s Emergency Response Framework (ECHO, 29/07/2014). WHO declared the epidemic a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). On 1 August, West African Ebola-hit nations agreed at an emergency summit to impose a cross-border isolation zone at the epicentre of the outbreak (AFP).
Security forces have been weakened by the epidemic. Several police stations in Monrovia have closed after officers died of Ebola (AFP, 30/09/2014). On 14 October, the Philippine military announced the withdrawal of over 100 peacekeepers from Liberia next month due to the risk posed by EVD (UNMEER, 15/10/2014).
In the poorest parts of Monrovia, armed attacks and opportunistic crime have increased (DRC, 24/09/2014). In Nimba county, the crime rate has increased significantly, and several violent attacks have been recorded (DRC, 24/09/2014). Rising inter-ethnic tensions were observed in late August in Ganta, Nimba county (DRC 24/09/2014).
The Liberian National Police has allegedly seized belongings from people breaking the curfew. Cases of extortion at Liberian armed forces’ checkpoints at the border between Grand Gedeh and Nimba counties have also been reported. Arbitrary arrests continue to increase (DRC, 24/09/2014).
Resistance to the Ebola Response
Community resistance against health workers and treatment remains high (WHO, 06/08/2014). There have been frequent spontaneous demonstrations protesting the presence of Ebola treatment units in neighbourhoods and bodies in the street (PI, 05/10/2014). On 20 August, violence erupted in West Point slum. Soldiers opened fire and used tear gas on crowds protesting at the quarantine (AFP, 21/08/2014). On 17 August, a quarantine centre was attacked and looted. Seventeen Ebola patients fled (AFP, 19/08/2014).
People are frustrated because of the delays in provision of lab results and removal of sick patients and dead bodies (Government, 08/08/2014). In Monrovia, many have complained that bodies have been left on the streets and in homes for days (AFP, 04/08/2014). Some families are refusing the removal of deceased relatives’ bodies without a laboratory test or result (UN, 01/10/2014).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
The Ebola crisis is having dramatic indirect consequences: 3.37 million people are in need of assistance, almost the entire population of Liberia (OCHA, 16/09/2014).
Poor road conditions are posing challenges for the transfer of cases in Tapitta, Nimba county, as well as the delivery of food assistance in Grand Kru county (Government, 26/09/2014).
At the end of August, in Nimba county, the Government reported a mass movement of people out of Ganta due to fear of infection (Government, 28/08/2014).
Central and northwest regions are normally among the most productive regions, but are the areas with higher Ebola incidence, therefore food supply is being affected (WFP, 29/09/2014). Quarantine and movement restrictions have meant that traders have been unable to travel to buy food and farmers cannot harvest their crops (international media, 10/08/2014; 27/08/2014). Some farmers have abandoned their farms (WFP, 29/09/2014). In Lofa county, rice production decreased by 10% this year, reportedly because farmers abandoned their farms for fear of infection. In Barkedu and Foya counties, rice production fell by 15% (IRIN, 20/10/2014).
Many weekly district markets in border areas remain officially closed, including Foya market in Lofa, Ganta Market in Nimba, and Bo-Waterside in Grand Cape Mount. Overall, around 60% of markets outside Monrovia have closed or scaled down (UNMEER, 13/10/2014). In Monrovia, prices of cassava and imported rice, the main staple food, have increased by 30% (WFP, 17/10/2014). Food and commodity prices rose between 30% and 75% between April and September. Some types of fish are five times more expensive than before the outbreak began (IRIN, 20/10/2014).
WFP has delivered food for about 96,000 people affected by food shortages and quarantined in Bomi, Bong, Grand Cape Mount, Grand Bassa, Lofa, Margibi, Montserrado, Nimba, and Rivercess counties (WFP, 01/09/2014). 449,000 people are targeted for food assistance over the next three months (WFP, 11/09/2014). WFP said its capacity to feed people in quarantined areas is being hampered by a funding shortage; only 14% of funding for emergency relief programmes has been received (international media, 26/09/2014).
Nine out of 12 large mining concessions have stopped or significantly reduced their activities (UNMEER, 13/10/2014).
According to a World Bank report, rubber exports, the most important agricultural export for Liberia, are expected to drop by 20% in 2014. The exchange rate remains 13% lower than September 2013 levels, which maintains inflationary pressure on domestic prices of imported food commodities (WFP, 29/09/2014).
Health and Nutrition
Non-Ebola-related child morbidity and mortality has increased, as the national health system is unable to meet either Ebola or non-Ebola medical needs (OCHA, 16/09/2014; UNICEF, 26/08/2014).
Liberia continues to be the country most affected by Ebola. As of 13 October, 4,262 cases and 2,484 deaths had been reported (WHO, /10/2014). As of 8 October, 61.5% of those infected or who have died from Ebola are women (WHO, 08/10/2014). The utility of case numbers has been questioned; statistics are reported to be highly unreliable due to a lack of a comprehensive contact tracing, timely case investigation, and rapid Ebola testing (UNICEF, 06/09/2014).
Problems with data gathering continue. The CDC estimates that only about 40% of Ebola cases are being reported in Liberia and Sierra Leone (AFP, 28/09/2014). Despite a reported fall in the number of new cases, responders indicate a deterioration of the situation, in Monrovia in particular (WHO, 15/10/2014). Outside Monrovia, most newly reported cases have come from the districts of Bong and Margibi. The recent fall in the number of new cases reported from Lofa appears to continue, with observers in the area suggesting that there is evidence of a genuine decline (WHO, 15/10/2014).
The outbreak has completely outstripped the Government’s and international actors’ capacity for response and control (WHO, 08/09/2014).
Healthcare provision: Despite calls from the Liberian National Health Workers Association for a nationwide strike over risk allowances, the majority of hospitals and clinics continued to operate as usual (Reuters, 13/10/2014). The strike was ended the day after it began, saying they put the needs of their country first. The Government had threatened to fire health workers who were on strike (AFP, 14/10/2014).
In Bong county, the two largest hospitals have been closed, leaving over 330,000 people without healthcare (international media, 12/09/2014).
A shortage of vehicles for case investigations and ambulances for prompt referral has been reported in Margibi county. In Sinoe county, there are reportedly no ambulances, nor is there a vehicle for the burial team (UN, 01/10/2014).
As of 10 October, almost 80,000 body bags are required to meet needs, and 990,000 personal protective equipment kits, and 590,000 pairs of gloves are urgently needed (Government, 10/10/2014). Laboratory capacity needs strengthening. The only crematorium in the country is overwhelmed (international media, 22/08/2014).
Containment measures: The Liberian Judiciary took several precautionary measures to control the number of detainees and prevent Ebola outbreak, releasing 581 pre-trial detainees nationwide since August (local media, 15/10/2014).
On 3 October, Parliament criminalised the deliberate concealment of information about people with contagious diseases such as Ebola and HIV. A similar law was passed in Sierra Leone (UN, 04/10/2014).
The President declared a state of emergency for a period of 90 days on 6 August (Government, 06/08/2014). In Grand Kru County, the Parluken community is under quarantine following the first reported Ebola cases in the area (WFP, 26/09/2014). On 11 August, Lofa county was put under quarantine, becoming the fourth county in quarantine after Bomi, Grand Cape Mount, and Gbarpolu (international media, 11/08/2014). A quarantine imposed on West Point slum in Monrovia on 19 August was lifted 11 days later (international media, 30/08/2014). A night curfew imposed from 20 August means all entertainment centres and all video centres are to be closed at 18:00 (AFP, 20/08/2014).
Liberia closed its borders on 29 July, with the exception of major entry points and the airport. One commercial airline has suspended all fights from Sierra Leone and Liberia to Nigeria (OCHA, 29/07/2014). The crossings that are still open, together with the international airport, will intensify screening of travellers (ECHO, 29/07/2014). All markets in border areas are closed until further notice (AFP, 30/07/2014).
Regional Ebola Outbreak: At 14 October, the total cumulative number of reported cases across the region had reached 9,191, including 4,546 deaths. Three cases in the USA and one case in Spain on 6 October have been confirmed (WHO, 17/10/2014). The outbreak in Senegal is officially over, with no new cases reported for 21 days (WHO, 17/10/2014). Nigeria is now free of EVD transmission with no new cases reported for 42 days (WHO, 20/10/2014).
Expected evolution: According to a WHO projection, the aggregate caseload could exceed 20,000 by early November (WHO, 28/08/2014). According to the Center for Disease Control (CDC), if the virus continues to spread at the current rate, Liberia and Sierra Leone will have reported about 550,000 Ebola cases by late January. The CDC estimates that officially reported cases are about 40% of the real burden in Liberia and Sierra Leone, indicating a possible total of 1.4 million cases in Sierra Leone and Liberia by late January (CDC, 23/09/2014).
ProtectionPeople who exhibit symptoms of Ebola or are related to sick people are being rejected from communities (CARE, 30/09/2014). Traditional coping mechanisms and social bonds are breaking down, as community members fear each other. Families of victims and survivors are experiencing physical and verbal abuse (DRC, 24/09/2014). The Government has asked Liberians not to reject Ebola survivors (international media, 14/10/2014).
At least 3,700 children in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone have lost one or both parents to Ebola since the start of the outbreak, and many are being rejected by their relatives for fear of infection (UNICEF, 30/09/2014). 40 children in Margibi county, whose parents have died from Ebola, are considered vulnerable. Children rejected by the community in Dolo Town are living in a school building (Government, 10/09/2014).
According to local media, armed forces have been shooting at people trying to cross the border illegally from neighbouring Sierra Leone (INGO, 18/09/2014).
Mali Country Analysis
19 October: Clashes were reported in Intillit, Gao region, between pro-government militia GATIA and a coalition of the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) and the Popular Coalition for Azawad (CPA) (ECHO).
- Security, particularly in the north, remains volatile, and access is limited for aid workers. Security in and around the northeastern region of Kidal is of particular concern.
- 4.7 million people are estimated to be food insecure as of 30 August 2014 (WFP, 30/08/2014). The situation is extremely worrying in northern Mali, following violence in Kidal and Gao region in May (OCHA, 10/09/2014). 496,000 children under five suffered from SAM as of 31 July (OCHA, 12/08/2014)
- 2.5 million people are in need of healthcare and one million people are in need of WASH (OCHA, 10/09/2014).
- The increase in the arrival of returnees to the north has increased needs among host communities (IOM, 24/07/2014).
Violence and conflict in the north have led to a deterioration in the humanitarian situation and large-scale displacement.
Civilian rule was re-established in mid-2013, but Mali continues to face security and political challenges. The truce in the north remains fragile, and key government institutions need strengthening. Limited access to basic social services and the poor capacity of public administration are key drivers of the crisis.
On 15 June, three armed groups from northern Mali – the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), the High Council for the Unity of Azawad (HCUA), and the Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) – signed the Algiers Declaration with the Government of Mali. The groups have agreed to engage with the Government on a path of dialogue and negotiation, in exchange for the release of prisoners and better conditions for the return of refugees. The second round of negotiations began on 1 September (AFP, 01/09/2014). On 14 September, the MNLA and the MAA signed a Memorandum of Understanding (AFP, 14/09/2014).
However, continued violence in has put the peace talks on shaky ground (UN, 07/08/2014). With talks due to resume 19 October, clashes were reported 16 October in Intillit, Gao region, between pro-government militia GATIA and a coalition of MNLA and CPA fighters (ECHO, 19/10/2014).
The main Tuareg separatist group has accused the Malian army of backing local militias east of Timbuktu (Reuters, 24/07/2014).
The crisis began in January 2012, when several insurgent groups began fighting for independence and greater autonomy for the northern Azawad region. The conflict initially pitted Tuareg tribesmen against the Government. But then Islamist rebel groups Ansar Dine and the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO) began a separate insurgency, aiming to impose sharia in Azawad and push Tuareg insurgents out of major cities. The conflict was further complicated by a military coup in March 2012. At the request of the Government, the French military launched Operation Serval in January 2013 in response to territorial gains and a push south by Islamist fighters.
Tuareg and Arab insurgents took Kidal and the smaller settlement of Menaka in May, and the situation in Kidal and Gao remains tense. There has been a series of attacks on MINUSMA vehicles, camps, and peacekeepers, and involving civilians since mid-August; about 16 people have been killed and 36 wounded (AFP, 21/09/2014). Ten peacekeepers have been killed in October (UN Security Council, 07/10/2014; AFP, 08/10/2014) . Local sources and security forces report that Islamists have regained a foothold in several areas and pressured families hostile to their presence to leave their homes.
Improvised explosive devices, looting, and rockets continue to threaten civilians and hamper access to vulnerable populations (OCHA, 23/09/2014). In addition, Al Qaeda-linked militants are known to operate in Mali; a number of so-called self-defence militias, formed in 2012, are active; and strained relations between Tuareg and other communities in the north, such as the Fulani and Songhai, have deteriorated since 2012.
The stability of the Sahel region relies on the presence of foreign troops. Malian and French forces, the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA), and the EU military training mission (EUTM) are all present, mainly in Bamako (53% of forces) and in northern cities such as Kidal, Gao, Timbuktu, and Menaka (28%) (OCHA, 31/05/2014). MINUSMA’s mandate expires on 30 June 2015.
On 1 August, France deployed a 3,000-strong counterterrorism operation across the Sahel region. Based in Chad, Operation Barkhane is active in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger (Local Media, 01/08/2014).
On 10 October, France said its forces had destroyed an Al Qaeda convoy in Niger carrying a large amount of weapons from Libya to Mali. The convoy belonged to Al Qaeda North African branch (AFP, 10/10/2014).
Landmines and IEDs are a particular threat. On 21 September, at least two civilians were killed by a landmine near the town of Aguelhok, in Kidal region (AFP, 21/09/2014). On 16 September, an IED attack in north Mali killed two civilians and wounded four (AFP, 16/09/2014).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
The limited deployment of security forces and poor road conditions during the rainy season is restricting access to populations in need (EU, 12/09/2014). Certain areas requiring assistance in Mopti region, such as Tenenkou and Youwarou villages, remain inaccessible due to the security situation and poor infrastructure (WFP, 01/10/2014).
Security incidents involving NGOs have almost tripled in the past few months. Since January 2014, 20 violent incidents involving humanitarian personnel have been recorded (Première Urgence - Aide Médicale Internationale, 10/10/2014).
As of 31 August, around 101,300 people are internally displaced as a consequence of the 2012 conflict, of whom more than 35,200 are in Bamako and 15,000 in Koulikoro. The overall number of IDPs is 340,000 (EU, 12/09/2014).
Around 9,700 IDPs are considered vulnerable (IOM, 10/09/2014). 55% of IDPs in the south are children (IOM, 08/2014).
77% of IDP households surveyed want to go back to their place of origin (IOM, 10/09/2014).
Refugees in Mali
As of 31 July, Mali hosts over 14,525 refugees from countries including Mauritania (12,900) and Côte d’Ivoire (1,110) (OCHA, 16/09/2014).
361,000 IDP returnees have been identified in Gao, Timbuktu, Kidal, and Mopti (IOM, 10/09/2014).
35,800 IDPs went back to their place of origin between June and September (IOM, 10/09/2014). The arrival of returnees in the north has exacerbated existing needs in host communities (OCHA, 10/09/2014).
The number of returning refugees has been decreasing over the past months: 603 returned in August (UNHCR, 19/09/2014). So far in 2014, more than 31,000 Malians have returned: more than 10,000 from Burkina Faso; about 12,000 from Niger; around 7,300 from Mauritania; and 2,200 from Algeria (UNHCR, 14/08/2014).
Mali, Niger, and UNHCR signed a tripartite agreement on the voluntary repatriation of Malian refugees on 3 May. The situation in northern Mali is, however, not yet favourable to the promotion of massive returns. In January, UNHCR stated that there is a risk of reprisal attacks on returning refugees and IDPs, and socio-economic conditions have not been restored to pre-conflict levels. However, UNHCR said it will work together with both governments in seeking durable solutions for the refugees.
Malian Refugees in Neighbouring Countries
As of 9 September, an estimated 140,000 Malians have taken refuge in neighbouring countries, including 54,000 in Mauritania, 50,000 in Niger, 33,000 in Burkina Faso, and 1,500 in Algeria (OCHA, 10/09/2014).
4.7 million people are estimated to be food insecure: 2.8 million people are in situations of Stressed food insecurity (IPC Phase 2) and 1.9 million people are in Severe and Emergency food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 and 4) (WFP, 30/08/2014). Mopti and Timbuktu regions are particularly vulnerable, as they have been experiencing rain deficits from May to October 2014 (FEWSNET, 14/10/2014).
In the Sahel belt, poor households have resorted to negative coping mechanisms, experiencing Stressed conditions (IPC Phase 2) (FEWSNET, 30/09/2014).
Livestock are in poor physical condition due to the lack of pasture, resulting in a drastic drop in market prices for small animals. Consequently, livestock has been moving from northern Mali to grazing areas in the centre and south of the country (OCHA, 07/2014).
Sahel Food Crisis: Regional Overview
24.7 million people in the Sahel are suffering from food insecurity as of 30 September (OCHA, 07/10/2014). Food insecurity in 2014 has risen dramatically compared to 2013, when food consumption was inadequate for 11.3 million people (OCHA, 03/02/2014).
Health and Nutrition
Almost 2.5 million people are in need of healthcare (OCHA, 10/09/2014).
As of 30 September, 136,000 children suffer from severe acute malnutrition, while 360,000 suffer from moderate acute malnutrition (OCHA, 07/10/2014).
One million people do not have access to drinking water in their community in Timbuktu, Gao, Kidal, and Mopti as a consequence of conflict (OCHA, 10/09/2014).
Shelter and NFIs
567,000 people are in need of NFIs in the conflict-affected areas of Timbuktu, Kidal, Gao, Mopti, and Segu (OCHA, 10/09/2014).
Explosive remnants of war have caused 101 casualties from 2012 to June 2014 (OCHA, 30/06/2014).
Grave violations against children from January 2012 to December 2013 were reported by the UN Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict in May, including killings, sexual violence, and recruitment. Violations were committed by armed groups active in the north, and to a lesser extent, by Malian armed forces and pro-government militias.
Niger Country Analysis
No significant developments this week, 14/10/2014. Last update 08/10/2014.
- 5.3 million people are estimated to be food insecure (OCHA, 09/2014).
- 1.6 million acutely malnourished children, 356,320 of whom are severely malnourished. 13.3% GAM among children 6–59 months (OCHA, 31/07/2014).
- 156,250 people have fled to Niger: 51,250 from Mali (UNHCR, 31/08/2014) and 105,000 from Nigeria (OCHA, 24/09/2014).
- 738 cases and 25 deaths have been recorded since January in a cholera epidemic, reportedly linked to the one in neighbouring Nigeria (UNICEF, 09/2014).
Niger is affected by instability in neighbouring Mali and Nigeria. Spillover from Nigeria's Islamist uprising is threatening Niger’s security: a growing number of incidents has been recorded, including the seizure of arms and arrest of militants.
France announced mid-July that some 3,000 French troops will operate counterterrorist operations in the Sahel region in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad across the Sahel region (Reuters, 18/07/2014). Based in Chad, the new counterterrorism operation, Barkhane, will replace the current Serval operation (RFI, 18/07/2014).
Insecurity has been rising in Niger and across the region due to crises in Libya, Mali, and Nigeria. Terrorist threats from Boko Haram, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, and the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa are all of concern.
A number of incidents, including an attempted kidnapping of officials, and the seizure of arms and arrests of militants, suggest that Boko Haram may be using southeast Niger both as a base and a potential target, according to Reuters.
Niger is also facing communal tensions connected to the Tuareg insurgency. Divided along lines of class, clan, and generation, some Tuareg are integrated into the administration. However, others have been waging a low-level war in an attempt to achieve greater autonomy for the north.
Humanitarian Context and Needs
Over 68,000 people have been affected and 36 killed by flooding due to heavy seasonal rainfall. 18,000 are affected in Tillabery, 12,000 in Maradi, 9,000 in Zinder, and 9,400 in Tahoua. More than 8,100 houses and almost 2,817 hectares of crops have been destroyed (OCHA, 13/10/2014).
3,400 Malian people sought refuge in Niger between May and July (INGO, 13/08/2014). 51,250 Malian refugees are now in Niger (UNHCR, 31/08/2014). As of March, 80% were women and children. Most live in three camps in Tillabery region: Abala, Mangaize, and Tabareybarey. In an attempt to adapt to the specific needs of nomadic refugees, two refugee hosting areas have been established in Intikane and Tazalit, Tahoua.
In May, Mali, Niger, and UNHCR signed a tripartite agreement on the voluntary repatriation of Malian refugees, although the situation in northern Mali is not yet favourable for the promotion of massive returns. As of 31 August, over 12,000 Malians have returned to their homes (UNHCR, 31/08/2014).
Returnees from Mali constitute 14% (around 5,700 people) of the 40,800 returnees in Niger (OCHA, 31/07/2014).
An estimated 27,000 people crossed from northeastern Nigeria into Niger between August and September, bringing the overall number to 105,000 since May 2013. The newly displaced are in a critical situation, and have shelter, food, water, and health needs (OCHA, 24/09/2014). The rate of arrivals is increasing, with more arriving August–September than January–May (UNHCR and IRC). Approximately 70% are Niger returnees and 30% are Nigerian refugees (UNHCR, 09/2014). The majority of refugees are women and children.
The economic opportunities of fishing mean most new arrivals are settling around Lake Chad. At the same time, refugees who arrived earlier in the year are becoming host families for new arrivals, adding to the burden on families with very limited resources (IFRC, 03/10/2014).
The Government has decided not to open camps in Diffa region. Diffa has long faced serious gaps in the provision of food staples, healthcare and potable water for its popualtion, and the estimated population of refugees and returnees represents more than 10% more people. Internal displacement within the region is increasing, driven by the search for means of subsistence and pasture (UNHCR, 09/2014; IFRC, 08/08/2014; OCHA, 26/07/2014).
The Government has reportedly been slow in giving the newly arrived Nigerians refugee status, despite a December decree granting refugee status to people fleeing the states under a state of emergency in Nigeria. As of September, only 18% of newly arrived people had identity documents (UNHCR, 09/2014).
CAR Crisis: Returnees
Since December 2013, 1,160 Niger nationals have been repatriated from CAR by IOM in coordination with the Government of Niger.
5.3 million people are estimated to be food insecure, compared to 2.9 million in 2013 (OCHA, 31/07/2014 and 30/09/2014).
In Diffa region, almost 161,200 people are suffering from food insecurity in Diffa region, which is vulnerable to flooding and drought (OCHA, 10/08/2014). According to a joint assessment mission conducted in early September, poor rainfall in Diffa will affect the 2014–2015 agricultural and pastoral campaign, and is expected to cause a serious food deficit in most communities (IFRC, 03/10/2014). In agricultural and pastoral areas of Maine-Soroa and Diffa departments households will experience Minimal food insecurity until December. Acute food insecurity will remain at Stressed levels for households in north Nguigmi department until December (FEWSNET, 26/09/2014).
In agricultural and pastoral areas of Ouallam in Tillabery, and Mayahi in Maradi, households will experience Minimal food insecurity level until December. Poor seasonal rainfall since the middle of August, including prolonged dry spells, has led to late-season moisture deficits that have negatively impacted crop development in parts of Tillabery (FEWSNET, 14/10/2014). The situation could change depending on the harvest in October–December (FEWSNET, 28/08/2014 and 26/09/2014).
Sahel Food Crisis: Regional Overview
24.7 million people in the Sahel (Burkina Faso, north Cameroon, Chad, the Gambia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, north Nigeria, and Senegal) are suffering from food insecurity as of 30 September (OCHA, 07/10/2014). Food insecurity in 2014 has risen dramatically compared to 2013, when 11.3 million people had inadequate food (OCHA, 03/02/2014).
Agriculture and Markets
Disruptions in rainfall have destroyed seedlings in some areas, and farmers face serious challenges accessing seed. In Nguigmi department, Diffa region, not one village was able to sow seeds. Only 41% of villages in Diffa (250 of 606) had sown seeds by the end of July (OCHA, 26/07/2014).
In the north, livestock are in a poor physical condition due to the lack of pasture, resulting in a drastic drop in market prices for small animals (OCHA, 31/07/2014).
Boko Haram-related market disruptions have restrained trade flows towards Diffa and increased marketing costs. Trade flows from Nigeria towards Maradi and Konni are at normal levels (FEWSNET, 31/07/2014)
Health and Nutrition
As of late September, 738 cholera cases have been registered in 2014, including 25 deaths (representing a fatality rate of 3.4%). Only 476 cases were reported within the same period in 2013 (UNICEF, 09/2014).
Around 1.6 million children are acutely malnourished in Niger; 356,320 of them are severely malnourished. GAM among children 6–59 months is at 13.3% nationwide, and exceeds the 15% emergency threshold in Maradi region (OCHA, 31/07/2014).
In mid-July, malnutrition had increased in Maine and Nguigmi in Diffa region (OCHA, 21/07/2014). In April, GAM was at critical levels in the regions of Agadez (14.0%), Tahoua (13.1%), Tillabery (13.3%), and Diffa (12.3%), according to OCHA.
48% of the population do not have access to safe drinking water (OCHA, 17/07/2014).
Nigeria Country Analysis
20 October: WHO declared Nigeria free of Ebola transmission; the epidemic has been successfully contained (WHO, 20/10/2014).
18 October: Boko Haram (BH) fighters raided two villages in the Northeast, and raised their flag in a third, residents said. The Government said it would continue negotiating with Boko Haram, despite the alleged breach of the truce announced by government officials the previous day (BBC, 20/10/2014).
17 October: Nigeria’s chief of defence staff and a senior presidential aide announced that an agreement had been reached with BH to end hostilities and secure the possible release of more than 200 kidnapped schoolgirls (AFP). By 20 October, BH has not commented on the ceasefire announcement (BBC).
- 9 million people are affected by violence in the northeast, with three million acutely needing humanitarian assistance (OCHA, 10/2014).
- 4.8 million people are food insecure (OCHA, 30/09/2014). Crisis levels of food insecurity are expected in the state of emergency (SoE) states (UNICEF, 06/2014).
- There are 1.5 million IDPs in the northeast due to the insurgency in the three SoE states (NEMA, 09/2014).
- The Boko Haram insurgency killed at least 7,000 people between July 2013 and June 2014 (VOA, 08/10/2014).
- 628,000 children under five suffer from severe acute malnutrition (OCHA, 30/09/2014).
- Nearly half the population does not have access to safe water (UNICEF).
- 32,233 cholera cases and 623 deaths have been reported so far in 2014: lack of WASH and the consequences of violence in the northeast are increasing concern about the outbreak (UNICEF, 09/2014).
- As of 18 September, 21 cases of Ebola were reported in Nigeria, including eight fatalities (WHO).
Up to 9.5 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance across the country, three million are in acute need in the northeast. Displaced and people otherwise affected by violence in Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe, and neighbouring Bauchi, Taraba, and Gombe states are in urgent need of health services, protection, food, and water. The violence has displaced a large number of people, restricted movement, disrupted food supply, seriously hindered access to basic services, and limited agricultural activities.
A state of emergency was declared in Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe states in May 2013. Economic decline, growing inequality, and failure to contain Boko Haram have all contributed to growing public distrust in the Government.
President Jonathan is expected to declare his bid for re-election in the coming weeks; positive news about Boko Haram’s hostages and the violence are likely to give him a political boost (AFP, 19/10/2014). The 2015 election is expected to exacerbate all violence in Nigeria (OCHA, 08/2014). According to the opposition, President Jonathan’s re-election would violate the unwritten rule that governance should rotate between the Muslim north and the Christian south every two terms. On 17 February, the Governance, Transparency, and Integrity Working Group of the United States–Nigeria Binational Commission met to support the establishment of benchmarks for transparent and inclusive elections.
In May, the UN identified 15 states as potential hot spots for political-related violence regarding the 2015 elections, with likely humanitarian implications (OCHA, 05/2014).
At least 11,000 people have been killed since 1998 as a result of the Boko Haram insurgency. More than 7,000 people were killed in the 12 months between July 2013 and June 2014 (VoA, 07/10/2014). The International Criminal Court declared the conflict between government forces and Boko Haram (BH) a civil war in November 2013. The insurgent group dubbed by outsiders as Boko Haram (Western education is forbidden) refers to itself as Jama'atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda'awati wal-Jihad, which means "People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet's Teachings and Jihad".
The frequency and fatality of attacks are at their highest levels since the state of emergency (SoE) was imposed in 2013. Common targets remain the vast rural communities, schools, and highways of the northeast. The state of emergency placed on Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe states will expire in 20 November 2014.
On 17 October, Nigeria’s chief of defence staff and a senior presidential aide announced that an agreement had been reached with BH to end hostilities and secure the possible release of more than 200 kidnapped schoolgirls. By 20 October, BH has not commented on the ceasefire announcement (BBC, 20/10/2014). The Government said it would continue negotiating with Boko Haram, despite the alleged breach of the truce (BBC, 20/10/2014): a day before the supposed ceasefire, BH insurgents stormed the town of Abadam, north of Maiduguri (AFP 19/10/2014); on 18 October, BH raided two villages, and raised their flag in a third, residents said. On 19 October, Nigerian troops fought dozens of suspected BH in Damboa, Borno state, and BH attacked the Borno town of Sabon Gida, according to military sources (AFP, 19/10/2014).
International and Regional Involvement
On 22 May, the UN approved the addition of BH to its list of individuals and entities subject to targeted financial sanctions and an arms embargo.
In November 2013, Niger and Nigeria established a Joint Border Patrol Command. The influx of Nigerian refugees and the spillover of violence is reportedly creating cross-border tensions (UNHCR).
On 23 September, the military said that over 260 BH militants surrendered in the northeast. Nigerian soldiers also reportedly killed a man who claimed to be BH leader Abubakar Shekau in propaganda videos. Last year, the military said that Shekau may have been killed, but did not provide proof (BBC, 25/09/2014).
Founded in Maiduguri, Borno state, BH has been leading an insurgency to create an Islamic state in the predominantly Muslim regions of northern Nigeria. The Nigerian authorities have been fighting BH since 2009.
The security crisis has continued to worsen, with BH using increasingly aggressive tactics. Numbers of victims of killings and abductions are growing, as is the destruction of social and economic infrastructure, including the disruption of education services. Since August, the insurgents have reportedly shifted from attacking villages and then withdrawing, to claiming control of attacked villages (OCHA, 09/2014 and Al Jazeera, 25/08/2014).
By the beginning of September, experts were warning that Borno state is on the brink of a takeover. BH has reportedly attacked and laid claim to some 15 towns in Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe. Counter-insurgency operations to reclaim these areas are ongoing. As of the first week of September, Maiduguri, the capital of Borno state, with a population estimated at over two million people, was reportedly surrounded by insurgents (OCHA, 09/2014).
Civilians have formed vigilante groups or self-defence militias, reportedly with the tacit backing of the Nigerian Government. For its part, the military has used excessive force, resulting in large-scale destruction in civilian areas. Amnesty International has reported mass extrajudicial executions (Washington Post, 05/08/2014). In August, Nigerian soldiers refused to deploy to Gwoza without better weapons (AFP, 22/08/2014). The state of emergency is feared to have strengthened the recruitment base of Boko Haram.
In February, it was confirmed that Nigeria had closed its northern border with Cameroon – from northern Borno state, by Lake Chad, to the southern end of Adamawa state – to block the movement of BH.
Borno state: On 24 September, BH militants killed at least 18 people in an attack on the town of Shaffa (Reuters, 25/09/2014). Over 19–20 September, BH insurgents stormed the town of Mainok; at least 36 people were killed (Reuters). On 13 September, BH insurgents attacked a market outside Maiduguri, (AFP, 13/09/2014).
On 28 August, BH took control of Gamboru Ngala (AFP), and in early August, BH took the town of Gwoza (Al Jazeera, 25/08/2014).
Yobe state: BH fighters have reportedly taken control of the towns of Buni Yadi, Buni Gari and Goniri, all in Gujba local government area (Sahara Reporters, 10/08/2014).
Adamawa state: Media reports indicate that the Nigerian military has re-captured three towns from Boko Haram. An estimated 500,000 people fled these towns following the BH attacks; BH has controlled the area since July (OCHA, 08/10/2014).
50 young women were seized by BH on 20 September (ECHO, 24/09/2014). Tens of thousands of people fled a BH advance on Madagali, Gulak, Michika, Bazza, and Mubi towns in early September (AFP, 08/09/2014).
Kano state: Attacks on Kano began again in May, after a lull of several months, and have become more frequent. On 17 September, BH was blamed after at least 15 people were killed during a shoot-out between police and suspected suicide bombers at a teacher training college (Al Jazeera, 18/09/2014).
Plateau state: According to officials, on 14 October, 27 residents died in an attack by gunmen, suspected to be Boko Haram, on Bachi district. The attack also led to the displacement of at least 3,520 residents (local media, 14/10/2014).
On 4 August, state authorities reported that inter-communal violence in Taraba state left 40 people dead and over 3,500 displaced (OCHA, 05/08/2014).
On 15 April, Human Rights Watch said inter-communal violence had escalated across five states in central Nigeria (Benue, Kaduna, Plateau, Nasarawa, and Taraba) since December 2013, killing more than 1,000 people. The Middle Belt area is home to a number of minority groups, divided between the Islamic north and the more secular Christian/animist south. Disputes are often over land and water.
Humanitarian Context and Needs
According to the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), nine million people in the Northeast have been affected by the conflict in the region, with three million people in acute need of humanitarian assistance (OCHA, 08/10/2014).
Attacks on health facilities, water points, schools and farms have severely affected local communities, particularly in Borno and Yobe (OCHA, 31/08/2014 and UNICEF, 18/06/2014). Populations are in urgent need of protection, food, and basic medical and WASH services as very few international actors are operating in the northeast (OCHA, 31/08/2014 and 01/07/2014).
Updated information on the humanitarian situation in the northeast is minimal because of access constraints. Humanitarian access is impeded by insecurity, poor infrastructure, and limited openings for dialogue with both security forces and non-state actors (OCHA, 05/2014).
On 3 October, Yobe and Borno imposed a travel ban through the Muslim holiday weekend until 7 October to guard against BH attacks (AFP, 05/10/2014).
In Borno state, most routes to affected areas are inaccessible. The State of Emergency restricts movement and assembly in parts of Borno state, and Maiduguri Airport is closed to commercial flights. Only one route to Maiduguri is possible, which is subject to insurgent attacks (OCHA, 09/2014).
BH insurgents are suspected of blowing up a major bridge in Gamboru Ngala district, Borno state, disrupting transport links with Cameroon (BBC, 27/07/2014).
Following the continued BH attacks in different parts of Borno and Adamawa states, thousands of people have fled to neighbouring states of Gombe, Bauchi, Taraba and the southern parts of Adamawa and Borno states, putting more stress on the already strained resources of host states and communities. Food, health, protection, and WASH are all priority needs in host communities (OCHA, 02/10/2014).
There now are up to 1.5 million IDPs in the six northeast states, according to the Nigerian National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), a significant increase on the 646,700 IDPs reported from an inter-agency assessment in May (OCHA, 24/09/2014).
Over 5–7 September, Madagali, Gulak, Basa, and Michka in northern Adamawa state were attacked by BH leading to mass displacement from neighbouring areas. IDPs originally from Gwoza and Damboa, Borno state, were further displaced from Madagali and Michka. An estimated 60,000 people have been registered in four IDP camps in Maiduguri, Borno state, and Yola, Adamawa state, due to recent attacks in Konduga, Mainok, Madagali, Michika, and Mubi (NEMA cited by OCHA, 09/2014).
By October, residents had begun returning to Damboa, as BH had left the town close to Borno state capital of Maiduguri (AFP, 19/10/2014).
In early July, 257,700 IDPs were thought to be in Borno, including 100,000 in Maiduguri. Adamawa and Yobe states hosted 102,560 and 76,360 IDPs, respectively (UNHCR and OCHA, 01/07/2014). 268,200 were displaced in surrounding states including Taraba (108,500), Bauchi (88,570), Benue (37,000), Kaduna (15,000), Gombe (13,000), and Nasarawa (6,340).
Most IDPs reside in about 200 host communities, overstretching already scarce resources and aggravating poverty levels, including food security (OCHA, 06/2014; UNHCR and OCHA, 01/07/2014). IDPs in host communities are in urgent need of shelter and non-food items. The IDPs identified shelter as a priority need in Mubi (OCHA, 02/10/2014). There are 18 camps in Borno, Taraba, Gombe, and Lagos states. Most IDP households are headed by women who have been widowed during attacks.
Nigerian Refugees in Neighbouring Countries
As of 16 September, UNHCR reported that 75,000 refugees have fled to Cameroon, Nigeria, or Chad, and 95,000 are expected by the end of the year (OCHA, 17/09/2014). Temporary refugee status has been granted to those Nigerians fleeing the three states under an SoE. UNHCR has advised against forced returns to northern areas.
Niger: Some 105,000 Nigerian refugees and returning migrants are estimated to be in Niger. During September, 25,000 Nigerians entered Niger (OCHA, 14/10/2014). On 2 October, some 2,200 people fled the Nigerian village of Gueskhar (located 2km from the border with Niger) after a BH attack. Since the beginning of October thousands of people, mainly from the villages of Malam Fatouri, Metele, and Kangarwa in Borno state fled to the Nigerien village of Bosso. According to UNHCR, residents fled after being asked to provide men to join BH (UNHCR, 17/10/2014). Concentrated in the Diffa region, most refugees are staying with local communities, and food and water resources are limited (UNHCR, 15/06/2014).
Cameroon: 44,000 Nigerians have fled to northern Cameroon so far in 2014, including 26,750 refugees registered by UNHCR (IRIN, 17/09/2014; UNHCR, 17/10/2014). 15,335 Nigerian refugees are in Minawao camp (UNHCR, 17/10/2014). Dozens are arriving every day. Aid and infrastructure projects in the Far North region have been suspended due to high levels of insecurity (AlertNet, 08/07/2014).
Chad: As of 17 October, 1,500 Nigerian refugees have been registered in Chad (UNHCR, 17/10/2014). On 8 August, UNHCR reported that over 1,120 people fled attacks in Kolikolia, Borno state, and sought refuge on the uninhabited Chadian island of Choua on Lake Chad. The refugees were mainly women and children in urgent need of food, water, shelter and medical care. The refugees have been relocated to Ngouboua, some 30km from the border, where a number of Nigerian refugees and Chadian returnees already live with host communities (OCHA, 09/2014). Since 2009, 4,000 Nigerian refugees have arrived in Chad (OCHA, 05/08/2014).
4.8 million people are food insecure (OCHA, 30/09/2014). Crisis levels of food insecurity are expected in the SoE states (UNICEF, 06/2014).
In southern Borno and Yobe, northern Adamawa, and the Lake Chad region, Crisis levels of food insecurity will persist until at least December, despite the main harvest beginning in October (FEWSNET, 09/2014). About one million people are expected to remain in crisis in the areas worst affected by the conflict, while two million in other parts of the SoE will experience Stressed levels of food insecurity (FEWSNET, 08/2014).
Humanitarian partners have reported that food prices are on the increase due to insecurity, reducing the coping mechanisms of the IDPs living in host communities (OCHA, 02/10/2014).
Poor households in north-central Borno and Yobe and southern Adamawa states are less impacted by the conflict. The harvest in October is expected to improve household food access, but poor households in this area are still expected to face Stressed levels of food insecurity until December (FEWSNET, 09/2014).
Access to households whose livelihoods and markets are significantly impacted by the conflict remains limited for the Government and humanitarian organisations (FEWSNET, 09/2014). Food access and cross-border markets in border communities have been further impacted by insecurity, particularly the destruction of bridges to neighbouring Cameroon (OCHA, 06/2014). The 2013/14 agricultural season has been severely impeded, and conflict is limiting off-season livelihood activities and household incomes from seasonal labour.
Across the rest of the country, households are expected to benefit from early green harvests, ongoing since May, and main harvest beginning in September. This, combined with declining food prices, and typical seasonal incomes will allow households to continue to experience Minimal food insecurity until at least December (FEWSNET, 09/2014).
Health and Nutrition
Healthcare services have collapsed in the northern part of Nigeria’s Borno state as doctors, nurses and pharmacists have fled the violence (OCHA, 19/08/2014). 3,000 health facilities in the northeast are closed or have been partially destroyed (OCHA, 08/10/2014).
Most of the IDPs in host communities have limited access to health services due to various constraints such as lack of information on services and transportation cost (OCHA, 02/10/2014). As of March, a multi-sector assessment covering the three SoE states – Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe – indicated that only 37% of health facilities are functioning, leaving residents to seek medical attention across the border. Mortality rates are increasing and vaccination programmes are severely hit. Polio vaccination campaigns are now limited to the Maiduguri metropolis.
Since the beginning of the year, 33,239 cholera cases have been reported, including 635 deaths (1.9% case fatality rate). Only 1,221 cases were reported within the same period in 2013 (UNICEF, 10/2014). As of 5 August, an outbreak of cholera in two IDP sites hosting 10,000 IDPs in Biu, Borno, had infected 1,343 people and killed 27 (OCHA, 05/08/2014). As of late June, Bauchi, Kaduna, Kano, and Zamfara states accounted for about 92% of reported cases.
The lack of WASH infrastructure, the impact of conflict, and the lack of reliable epidemiological data from the SoE states, all give rise to serious concerns about the evolution of the outbreak. In Borno state in particular, insecurity has resulted in partial epidemiological surveillance and response (UNICEF, 20/10/2014).
By 20 October, WHO declared Nigeria free of Ebola transmission; the epidemic has been successfully contained (WHO, 20/10/2014). The most recent case was reported on 8 September (WHO, 20/09/2014). 19 cases were confirmed, with seven deaths, in Lagos and Port Harcourt since the outbreak was declared on 24 July (case fatality rate: 40%) (UNICEF, 24/09/2014).
A February–May SMART survey has revealed poorer nutritional status among the population of the SoE states (UNICEF, 06/2014). This is the second year of food consumption gaps, and the closure of several health facilities has limited access to essential health and nutrition services, so it is possible that the prevalence of acute malnutrition could increase over the coming months (FEWSNET, 08/08/2014).
As of September, 628,000 children under five suffer from severe acute malnutrition (OCHA, 30/09/2014). As of 30 January, 1.74 million were acutely malnourished in Nigeria (OCHA, 03/2014). Severe acute malnutrition is responsible for more than a third of all child deaths in Nigeria, which amount to 350,000 deaths from malnutrition every year (ECHO, 08/2014).
In 2014, more cases due to vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) have been reported (20 cases) than those due to wild poliovirus (WPV) type 1 (six cases). The most recent WPV case was reported on 24 July in Sumaila local government area, southern Kano. Kano is the only state to have reported cases of WPV since April (Global Polio Eradication Initiative, 24/09/2014).
In 2013, 53 cases were reported, and in 2012, 102 (GPEI, UNICEF). 72% of cases in 2013 were recorded in Borno, Yobe, and Kano states.
WASH conditions in IDP host communities are of critical concern, with reports of inadequate latrines and lack of access to safe water. The need for hygiene promotion activities and provision of hygiene kits is critical (OCHA, 02/10/2014).
According to reports from UNICEF, nearly half the Nigerian population does not have access to safe water, and a third does not have access to sanitation services.
10.5 million children are out of school in Nigeria, 60% in the northern part of the country (UNICEF cited by OCHA, 07/2014). One in every three primary school children and one in every four secondary school children are out of school in the northeast.
The Government has noted that the abduction of the girls from Chibok, Borno state has impacted negatively on its efforts and strategies to promote education of girls. According to the Borno state Ministry of Education, the majority of the over 250,000 school-aged children out of school due to the insurgency are girls from poor households (UNICEF cited by OCHA, 07/2014).
500 educational institutions in the northeast have been destroyed by the insurgency (OCHA, 08/10/2014). Borno state authorities announced that 176 teachers have been killed by Boko Haram in Borno state since 2011 (UNICEF cited by OCHA, 07/2014).
Kidnappings of groups of women and girls by BH continue, and more than 200 schoolgirls are still being held captive (OCHA, 01/07/2014). Young men are being forcibly recruited (ECHO, 20/09/2014).
There is a high prevalence of sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV) across the northeast, `though incidents are not regularly reported.
There is an urgent need for emergency protection, including psychosocial support for unaccompanied and separated children (OCHA, 06/2014).
Human rights groups have criticised both BH and Nigeria's military for failing to protect civilians. In a new report published on 18 September, Amnesty International said Nigeria’s police and military routinely torture women, men, and children, using a wide range of methods including beatings, shootings and rape (BBC, 18/09/2014).
Maintaining the civilian nature of places of asylum or displacement is of concern. The Government lacks the capacity to ensure the protection of basic human rights for refugees and IDPs.
Occupied Palestinian Territories Country Analysis
12 October: Donors have pledged over USD 5.4 billion, half of which will go towards rebuilding Gaza (Reuters).
11 October: 20,000 housing units are estimated to have been either destroyed or severely damaged, leaving about 120,000 people homeless; 29% of the housing stock in Gaza Strip is affected. This is in addition to the pre-crisis housing deficit of 80,000 units (NRC).
2 October: 20–30% of water and wastewater networks in Gaza are still significantly damaged, as well as 30–50% of water storage capacity at the household level, putting particular strain on host families (ECHO).
- 1.81 million people need humanitarian assistance, over 50% are children (OCHA, 09/2014).
- 1.6 million people, or 61% of the population, estimated food insecure (OCHA, 30/04/2014).
- 1.5 million people in the Gaza Strip have no or extremely restricted access to water (OCHA, 03/08/2014).
- Continuity of medical care is threatened by the financial crisis and electricity shortages in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip (OCHA).
- The ongoing blockade of the Gaza Strip limits access and movement of both people and goods.
The 50-day war with Israel has caused high civilian casualties in Gaza and large-scale destruction affecting all humanitarian sectors. Movement and access restrictions are aggravating the situation. The number of attacks on Palestinians by Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank has increased every year for the past eight years; attacks by Israeli security forces have also increased.
On 25 September, Hamas and Fatah announced they had reached an agreement for the return of their unity government, ahead of an international donor conference on Gaza and talks with Israeli negotiators (AFP, 23/09/2014; 25/09/2014). On 2 June, a new Palestinian unity government had been sworn in before President Abbas, ending seven years of division (AFP; UN, 02/06/2014).
At the end of August, members of the Palestinian parliament from the West Bank and East Jerusalem accused Israel of an anti-democratic crackdown, with dozens of elected officials detained, placed under investigation, or restricted in their movements. As of 22 August, of the 84 MPs, 36 are in Israeli jails, two-thirds of them under administrative detention (Reuters, 22/08/2014).
Israeli–Palestinian Peace Talks
On 17 September, Hamas announced that indirect negotiations, following Operation Protective Edge, would resume before 24 September (Haaretz, 18/09/2014).
Israel withdrew from the US-sponsored peace talks on 25 April, after the deal between Hamas and Fatah. Talks had begun in July 2013 after three years of deadlock.
Since then, Israel has announced the appropriation of some 400 hectares in the occupied West Bank, which an anti-settlement group termed the biggest in 30 years (Reuters, 31/08/2014). Israel published tenders for 283 new homes in Elkana settlement in the West Bank (AFP, 05/09/2014). On 1 October, 2,610 housing units, which have been planned since 2012, received final approval for construction in the East Jerusalem neighbourhood of Givat Hamatos (AFP, 01/10/2014).
Donors have pledged over USD 5.4 billion, half of which will go towards rebuilding Gaza (Reuters, 12/10/2014; 14/10/2014). The Palestinian Authority estimates it will cost USD 7.8 billion to reconstruct bombed areas (ACT Alliance, 10/10/2014).
Gaza: Operation Protective Edge
On 26 August, a permanent ceasefire was agreed between Hamas and the Israeli Government, after almost two months of intense violence (AFP).
Israel launched Operation Protective Edge on 8 July, striking Gaza with intensive aerial bombing, aimed at ending cross-border rocket fire. As of 9 October, at least 2,205 people have been reported killed since the operation began, including 521 children (UNWRA, 09/10/2014. As of 4 September, 1,473 of the victims were considered to be civilians (OCHA, 04/09/2014)11,231 people have been injured, including 3,436 children (OCHA, 29/08/2014). On the Israeli side, 66 soldiers, and five civilians, including one child, were killed (OCHA, 29/08/2014). Over 485,000 people were displaced, almost a third of the population of the Gaza Strip.
Twelve Palestinian journalists and one media worker were killed 8 July–5 August, seven of them in connection with their work (RsF, 05/08/2014).
Earlier Conflict Incidents
Prior to the current crisis, the number of violent incidents in and around Gaza had already been rising. Israeli raids, Palestinian rocket attacks, and border incidents have all built up tensions.
West Bank and East Jerusalem
Clashes and casualties have been increasing since the end of April. 22 people, including two children, have been killed in the West Bank and East Jerusalem since the beginning of Operation Protective Edge. As of 29 September, 41 people have been killed and 4,309 injured by Israeli forces in 2014 (OCHA).
Over 23–29 September, clashes with Israeli forces resulted in the injury of 28 Palestinians, including 11 children. On 24 September, a school had to evacuate its students following Israeli forces firing teargas (OCHA, 29/09/2014). On 23 September, Israeli troops killed two Palestinians in the West Bank suspected of the murder of three Jewish teenagers in June (AFP, 23/09/2014). On 10 September, a Palestinian was shot dead in clashes that broke out when Israeli troops entered a West Bank refugee camp near Ramallah (AFP, 10/09/2014). An IED exploded south of Nablus and other attacks were reported in Beit Ummar, Qalqiliya Gush Etzion, and Dura (UNICEF, 08/09/2014). On 7 September, a 16-year-old Palestinian died after being shot by Israeli border police. His death sparked clashes in Wadi Joz, where the teenager was from, and elsewhere in East Jerusalem (AFP, 07/09/2014).
The scope of settler violence declined in recent months (OCHA, 15/09/2014). In 2014, there have been 237 incidents of settler-related violence resulting in Palestinian casualties or property damage in the West Bank, and 71 incidents which resulted in Israeli casualties or property damage. The demolition of 332 structures has displaced 584 people this year (OCHA, 23/08/2014). The number of attacks on Palestinians by Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank has increased every year for the past eight years, from 115 in 2006 to 399 in 2013 (OCHA).
Since 2013, the frequency of Israeli settler visits to the Al Aqsa mosque compound has increased from weekly to half of every day, leading to clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinians (OCHA, 29/09/2014).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
Since the UN reconstruction mechanism agreement with Israel and Palestinian Authorities on 16 September, there has been an increase in cement and aggregate material bought in for the recovery and rehabilitation effort in the Gaza Strip. More than 250 trucks of reconstruction material have been transported into the Gaza Strip by humanitarian organisations (Logistics Cluster, 26/09/2014).
The entry of construction materials for the Qatari projects through Rafah Crossing with Egypt has been blocked since July (OCHA, 29/09/2014).
Security Incidents Involving Aid Workers
Nine UNRWA staff members have been killed since 20 July (UNRWA, 03/08/2014).
Critical infrastructure was targeted directly during the military offensive. At least 14 electricity, water, and wastewater technicians employed by local utilities have been killed by Israeli attacks and at least ten others injured.
As of 17 September, 31% of electricity demand is met in Gaza (OCHA, 17/09/2014). Service providers, including water and health providers, are relying on emergency fuel donations to run a select number of facilities (OCHA, 29/09/2014).
Despite the completion of significant repairs to the Gaza Power Plant in early September, the plant is still not operating, due to the inability to secure the necessary fuel (OCHA, 29/09/2014).
As of 11 October, more than 100,000 people remain displaced due to the recent conflict. 18 UNWRA and two government school buildings continue to serve as shelters for approximately 57,000 IDPs, and an estimated 47,000 people are living with host families (NRC, 11/10/2014). On 28 August, there were 475,000 IDPs (OCHA, 28/08/2014).
No organisation or mechanism systematically monitors the number of IDPs in oPt (IDMC, 23/09/2014).
72% of the population of Gaza are food insecure (OCHA, 12/09/2104). 1.15 million people are reached by regular food assistance (Food Security Cluster, 15/08/2014). 570,000 of 730,000 people not usually reached by UNRWA/WFP food distribution have received food parcels (Food Security Cluster, 28/08/2014).
Electricity shortages have impacted bread production and refrigeration. Delays at crossings are complicating food delivery and have resulted in waste. Destruction of tunnels bringing inexpensive goods has also impacted access to food and supplies.
Vegetable prices increased by 139% between June and August although staple food prices have remained stable due to the distribution of humanitarian supplies (WFP, 14/10/2014).
Prior to the current crisis, food insecurity in Gaza stood at 57%, unchanged from 2012, while in the West Bank food insecurity remained at 19%. 1.6 million – a third of all households – were food insecure (UNRWA, FAO, WFP, Government, 12/08/2014).
Losses to the farming sector are estimated at USD 450 million (Ministry of Agriculture cited by OCHA, 18/08/2014).
Up to 720 fishers have lost their livelihoods (Food Security Cluster, 28/08/2014). There have been reports of shooting at, and detaining, fishermen since the ceasefire, reportedly for exceeding the agreed limit (OCHA, 04/09/2014).
The majority of the Gaza population has lost its productive assets. The livelihoods of 28,600 households, including farmers, breeders, herders and fishers have been severely affected or totally lost through damaged lands and infrastructure (Food Security Cluster, 28/08/2014). Losses to the farming sector are estimated at USD 450 million (Ministry of Agriculture cited by OCHA, 18/08/2014). According to the Palestinian Federation of Industries, 419 businesses and workshops were damaged, including 128 completely destroyed (OCHA, 04/09/2014).
It is expected that labour market conditions in Gaza will further deteriorate, exacerbating the impact of the blockade and the longstanding movement restrictions (OCHA, 04/09/2014). A quarter of the Palestinian workforce remains unemployed – 16% in the West Bank and 45% in Gaza (World Bank, 10/09/2014).
In the West Bank, Israeli forces delivered requisition orders for around 12 dunum (1.2 hectares) of land planted with olive trees, for reasons of security (OCHA, 15/08/2014).
Health and Nutrition
Several health facilities that had been closed throughout the hostilities have re-opened, however, longstanding problems of electricity, equipment and drug supplies persist. As of 3 September, three out of 32 hospitals remain closed, and another three have limited operational capacity. 24 out of 97 primary health centres remain closed, overburdening neighbouring facilities (OCHA, 04/09/2014).
Fifty primary health centres and 17 hospitals reported damage to their infrastructure; one hospital and seven clinics were totally destroyed (OCHA, 04/09/2014WHO, 05/09/2014).
The health system was already overstretched before the conflict (WHO, 30/09/2014). In the West Bank, stocks of 150 (of 525) essential medicines were at zero in May; the main government pharmacy in the Gaza Strip reported stocks of 118 (of 481) essential medicines were at zero (OCHA, 31/05/2014).
373,000 children in the Gaza Strip are in need of direct and specialised psychosocial support (OCHA, 03/08/2014). The number of social workers and counsellors is insufficient (OCHA, 15/08/2014).
450,000 people are unable to access municipal water due to infrastructure damage and/or low pressure (OCHA, 12/09/2014). 12% of wells have been destroyed or damaged, particularly in Gaza City, Beit Hanoun, and Deir al Balah municipalities. Agricultural and standby wells, typically with lower water quality and no chlorination, have been used by many municipalities to supplement water supplies. According to Gaza officials, 95% of Gaza’s water is contaminated (AFP, 05/09/2014).
63 water facilities have been damaged; of which 23 were completely destroyed (Gisha, 20/08/2014). As of 2 October, 20–30% of water and wastewater networks in Gaza are still significantly damaged. Some 30–50% of water storage capacity at the household level is damaged, putting particular strain on host families (ECHO, 02/10/2014). Additionally, households without electricity and/or supplementary pumps cannot fill rooftop storage tanks when water is available (OCHA, 04/09/2014).
Only 50% of wastewater in Gaza is treated, and treatment is currently of low quality, leaving about 100,000 million cubic metres of raw sewage to be discharged directly to the sea (World Bank, 10/09/2014). Although solid waste is being collected in most areas, it is being left in temporary sites rather than dumped in designated landfills.
Gaza’s only water reserve is the coastal aquifer, which it shares with Israel and Egypt, and which is 55 million cubic metres; Gaza needs 190 million cubic metres every year, according to senior officials. The aquifer could be unusable by 2016 and the damage it has suffered may be irreversible by 2020 (AFP, 05/09/2014).
6% of housing stock has become uninhabitable; an estimated 20,000 housing units have been either destroyed or severely damaged, leaving about 120,000 people homeless. Current estimates indicate that 29% of the housing stock in Gaza Strip has been affected. This is in addition to the pre-crisis housing deficit of 80,000 units (NRC, 11/10/2014).
The Shelter Cluster estimates that under current conditions it will take approximately 20 years to import the materials required to complete the housing reconstruction. This timeframe is based on the current operational capacity of Kerem Shalom border crossing for materials (100 truckloads daily), and the estimated 97,334 housing units required in the Gaza Strip. This calculation does not include public infrastructure (e.g. schools, utilities, etc.) (Shelter Cluster, 29/08/2014).
22 schools were completely destroyed and 118 schools damaged by conflict. UNRWA has reported at least 75 damaged school buildings. Many higher education facilities, including the Islamic University in Gaza, have also been (OCHA, 04/09/2014).
The school year delayed by three weeks, started 14 September (UNRWA, 01/09/2014; UNICEF 14/09/2014). As schools open, children face even more acute overcrowding and under-resourcing. The education sector was already overstretched prior to the crisis, suffering from a shortage of almost 200 schools (OCHA, 04/09/2014).
Palestinian Bedouin families are at risk of forcible transfer, as Israeli authorities continue to make eviction and demolition orders from an area designated as a ‘closed military zone’.
Bedouin communities east of Jerusalem and in the central West Bank are at risk of forcible transfer due to a relocation plan by the Israeli authorities. Around 7,000 Palestinian Bedouins and herders, some 60% of them children, reside in 46 residential areas. Most of the families have demolition orders pending against their homes and over 85% lack connection to the electricity and water networks. Two-thirds of the communities reported facing settler violence during the past three years, as authorities failed to protect communities from intimidation and attacks (OCHA, 23/09/2014).
At the end of August, 473 Palestinians were under administrative detention Israel without trial, compared to 250 in June–July. It is the highest number since April 2009 (Israeli Information Center for Human Rights in the Occupied Territories, 07/10/2014).
501 have been killed and at least 3,436 injured, and 54,000 are homeless (OCHA, 04/09/2014; UNICEF 16/08/2014).
Up to 1,500 orphaned children will need sustained support from the child protection and welfare sectors (OCHA, 04/09/2014).
201 Palestinian children were imprisoned and prosecuted in the Israeli military court system at the end of August (Defence for Children International, 10/10/2014).
Mines and ERW
It is estimated that more than 1,900 ERW have yet to be secured, including tank shells, missiles, aircraft bombs and shrapnel (UNRWA, 23/09/2014). These are a major threat, especially to children and people working on repair and reconstruction (UNICEF, 28/08/2014; OCHA 04/09/2014).
18 October: Sierra Leone’s President has dissolved the body responsible for managing the country’s fight against Ebola and fired its coordinator. The Defence minister, Alfred Paulo Conte, has been appointed Chief Executive Officer of the newly named National Ebola Response Centre (BBC).
17 October: As of 14 October, 3,410 Ebola cases, including 1,200 deaths, have been reported in Sierra Leone (WHO).
16 October: Koinadugu, the last district to have no known cases so far, reported two confirmed cases (UNICEF).
14 October: In Freetown, security forces clashed with residents who were protesting over delays in removing the corpse of a suspected Ebola victim. Security forces fired tear gas and live rounds to disperse the crowd that had barricaded the street (Reuters).
- The whole population needs assistance as a consequence of the Ebola outbreak (OCHA, 16/09/2014).
- Between March and 14 October, 9,191 cases of Ebola and 4,546 deaths have been reported in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone (WHO, 17/10/2014). The numbers of registered cases and deaths are largely inaccurate, underestimating the gravity of the situation on the ground according to the Government.
- The outbreak erupted at a crucial period in the agricultural season for rice and other important food crops. Many farmers were not able to complete key, time-critical agricultural activities. There is a serious risk of acute malnutrition (OCHA, 16/09/2014).
- Women and children are not accessing basic health services, leading to an increase in non-Ebola related child morbidity and mortality (UNICEF, 26/08/2014).
Sierra Leone’s President has dissolved the body responsible for managing the country’s fight against Ebola and fired its coordinator. The Defence minister, Alfred Paulo Conte, has been appointed Chief Executive Officer of the newly named National Ebola Response Centre, and will have full powers to combat the disease and ensure a more effective use of aid (BBC, 18/10/2014).
On 18 September, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution establishing a special mission to lead the global response to Ebola. It called on countries to lift border restrictions on the affected countries and on all actors to scale up their efforts (UN, 18/09/2014).
Cuba has sent 165 health workers to West Africa and 300 more medical workers will be sent (international media, 20/10/2014).
The Ebola outbreak in West Africa has been declared a Grade 3 Emergency under WHO’s Emergency Response Framework (ECHO, 29/07/2014). WHO declared the epidemic a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). On 1 August, West African Ebola-hit nations agreed at an emergency summit to impose a cross-border isolation zone at the epicentre of the outbreak (AFP).
Fear and anger are taking a stronger hold among the population. On 14 October, in Freetown, security forces clashed with residents protesting over delays in removing the corpse of a suspected Ebola victim. Security forces fired tear gas and live rounds to disperse the crowd that had barricaded the street (Reuters, 14/10/2014). Between 24 and 25 September, several protests took place on the outskirts of the capital, over the delay in removing corpses that had been lying on the road for days. In Devil Hole, police used teargas to disperse protestors and arrested some (UNICEF, 28/09/2014).
On 26 September, the hospital of Port Loko town, in the Northern province, was attacked by people protesting at the way Ebola patients were treated and the death toll. Stones and bottles were thrown into the compound. 160 security personnel (military and police) have been deployed in the district to enforce security.
Humanitarian Context and Needs
The whole population is in need of assistance due to the consequences of the Ebola outbreak (OCHA, 16/09/2014).
Delays in getting visas and security clearances for cargo and planes, as well as high customs fees, are hampering humanitarian access and supply distribution (international media, 06/10/2014).
The Ebola epidemic is driving migration, according to Deutsche Welthungerhilfe (DWHH). Half of the people who have left Kenema and Kailahun within the past four months did so because of the epidemic. The fear of being infected or quarantined has triggered displacement. Some Ebola survivors have had to relocate because of strong stigmatisation after their return from hospital (DWHH, 06/10/2014).
Food Security and Livelihoods
The Ebola outbreak erupted at a crucial period in the agricultural season for rice and other important food crops. Up to 40% of farms have been abandoned in the most affected areas, according to the International Fund for Agricultural Development (UN, 13/10/2014). In the epicentres of the Ebola outbreak, 80% of surveyed households expect lower returns than last year. DWHH expects serious food shortages to hit the country in early 2015 (DWHH, 06/10/2014).
The closure of markets, roads, and banks has further reduced food availability and increased prices (OCHA, 16/09/2014). The price of rice has, on average, risen by 30% since May. According to a survey conducted by DWHH in Kenema and Kailahun counties, 97% of households indicate that their income dropped between May and August. Three-quarters of people surveyed by WFP have begun to reduce the number of daily meals and portion sizes (IRIN, 20/10/2014).
WFP said its capacity to feed people in quarantined areas is being hampered by a funding shortage, only 14% of funds for emergency relief programmes have been provided (international media, 26/09/2014).
Health and Nutrition
Women and children are reportedly not accessing basic health services due to the Ebola outbreak, leading to an increase in non-Ebola-related child morbidity and mortality (UNICEF, 26/08/2014).
As of 14 October, 3,410 Ebola cases, including 1,200 deaths, have been reported in Sierra Leone (WHO, 17/10/2014). The utility of case numbers has been questioned; statistics are reported to be highly unreliable due to a lack of a comprehensive contact tracing, timely case investigation, and rapid Ebola testing (UNICEF, 06/09/2014). The Center for Disease Control estimates that only about 40% of Ebola cases are being reported in Liberia and Sierra Leone (AFP, 28/09/2014).
Intense transmission is still occurring in Freetown where 425 new confirmed cases were reported between 6 and 12 October. The Bombali and Port Loko districts have reported new cases, and Bo and Tonkolili districts are areas of intense transmission (WHO, 12/10/2014). Two cases were confirmed in Koinadugu, which was the only district to have no known cases so far (UNICEF, 16/10/2014). A very low number of new cases had been reported from Kailahun and Kenema, the previous most affected areas. WHO will further investigate to confirm whether this fall is a result of under-reporting (WHO, 08/10/2014).
Healthcare provision: Authorities and humanitarian actors have warned about the alarming level of reluctance towards health workers and organisations involved in response activities against Ebola in Macenta (UNICEF, 05/09/2014). There are continued cases of affected people leaving treatment centres. Some infected people, including medical personnel, are disappearing with their families, leading to fear and tension among communities and great uncertainty in the control of the disease. Health workers are refusing to work in isolation wards and Ebola treatment hospital (UNICEF, 26/08/2014).
In Kailahun, a large number of people with Ebola are coming from Makeni by foot due to a shortage of ambulances. Some have been dead on arrival (MSF, 25/09/2014).
Containment measures: A three-day nationwide quarantine plan began on 19 September. A 7,000-strong patrol force in Freetown used this window to find patients who have not come forward for treatment (AFP, 06/09/2014). 130 new Ebola cases were found and around 100 corpses had been discovered (BBC, 22/09/2014). An intensive door-to-door campaign was also carried out to educate people on the transmission of the virus and prevention measures (UNDP, 30/09/2014).
On 24 September, Sierra Leone's President widened the quarantine to include the northern districts of Port Loko and Bombali, and Moyamba in the south. More than a third of Sierra Leone's 6.1 million population are now unable to move freely (BBC, 25/09/2014).
In August, legislation was passed imposing a jail term of up to two years for anyone concealing an Ebola-infected patient, and of up to six months for anyone entering or leaving Ebola-affected areas without medical authorisation. Any sport involving physical contact has also been prohibited (AFP, 22/08/2014; international media, 30/08/2014).
In June, Sierra Leone closed its borders with Guinea and Liberia, and closed schools, cinemas, and nightclubs in border areas (OCHA, 07/2014).
At 14 October, the total cumulative number of reported cases across the region had reached 9,191, including 4,546 deaths. Three cases in the USA and one case in Spain on 6 October have been confirmed (WHO, 17/10/2014). The outbreaks in Senegal is officially over, with no new case reported for 21 days (WHO, 17/10/2014). Nigeria is now free of EVD transmission as no new case has been reported for 42 days (WHO, 20/10/2014).
Expected evolution: According to a WHO projection, the aggregate caseload could exceed 20,000 by early November (WHO, 28/08/2014). According to the Center for Disease Control, if the virus continues to spread at the current rate, Liberia and Sierra Leone will have reported about 550,000 Ebola cases by late January. The CDC estimates that officially reported cases are about 40% of the real burden in Liberia and Sierra Leone, indicating a possible total of 1.4 million cases in Sierra Leone and Liberia by late January (CDC, 23/09/2014).
There is a serious risk of acute malnutrition for children under five as food security worsens.
Nearly two million children have not been attending school, as they remain closed. According to the Minister of Education, schools are not likely to reopen until March 2015 (UNICEF, 16/10/2014).
1,965 children have been identified as vulnerable by the Government: either because they are in quarantine, orphaned, under treatment and discharged, or unaccompanied (UNICEF, 16/10/2014).
With two million children not attending school, UNICEF warns of an increase in vulnerability, leading to a potential increase in child labour, and in teen pregnancy (UNICEF, 16/10/2014).
Somalia Country Analysis
19 October: Armed men and rioters obstructed and attacked AMISOM peacekeepers in Hiraan region. Several people were injured (AU).
17 October: Over 2,200 conflict incidents with humanitarian impact were reported in the first nine months of 2014 (OCHA).
17 October: The SNAF-AMISOM offensive displaced 7,000 people in August and September, largely in Bakool and Lower Shabelle (OCHA).
17 October: About 1,000 cases of SGBV were reported in Mogadishu in the first six months of the year (OCHA).
17 October: Road access is severely constrained in 28 districts in southern-central Somalia due to insecurity, road blocks and encirclement of newly taken back areas by non-state armed groups (OCHA).
14 October: The federal Government and Puntland State signed an agreement to review and implement the Provisional Federal Constitution and hold democratic elections in 2016 (AU).
14 October: It is estimated that 70% of the population in Gedo is affected by drought, and 1,500 people have been displaced from rural to urban areas within the region. Poor households are in Crisis food insecurity, IPC Phase 3 (ACT Alliance, FEWSNET, OCHA).
- Widespread violence and insecurity, particularly in south-central Somalia.
- Insecurity and bureaucratic impediments continue to hinder humanitarian access.
- 1.1 million IDPs, mainly in the south-central region, with high concentrations in Mogadishu (OCHA, 06/2014).
- More than one million Somali refugees live in neighbouring countries, mostly Kenya, Ethiopia, and Yemen (UNHCR, 03/2014).
- 3.2 million are estimated to need lifesaving or livelihood assistance (OCHA, 19/09/2014).
- 1,025,000 people are at Crisis and Emergency levels of food insecurity (FEWSNET, 09/2014). Two million people experience Stressed levels of food insecurity.
- More than 203,000 acutely malnourished children under five have been reported, mainly in south-central Somalia (OCHA, 05/2014).
- 520,000 children under five urgently require measles vaccination in outbreak areas (UNICEF, 06/2014).
Protracted conflict, consecutive years of drought, natural hazards, and disruption of basic infrastructure have led to large-scale displacement in Somalia and across the region. Almost half the population of Somalia, around 3.2 million people, is vulnerable to external shocks and lacking access to basic goods and services, with an estimated three million people living in seven regions who are affected by the Somalia–African Union military offensive: Bakool, Gedo, Lower Shabelle, Hiraan, Bay, Banadir and Lower Juba (OCHA, 05/2014). The UN warns of a looming humanitarian emergency (UN, 15/06/2014).
Somalia suffers from a chronic fragility of state institutions as a result of two decades of civil war. Prime Minister Ahmed was appointed by President Mahamud on 12 December, ending a government crisis that had raised significant concerns over security. Infighting between presidents and prime ministers is however a recurrent problem and the political situation remains unstable.
Since July, Somali military courts have tried and executed at least nine individuals, most of whom were civilians accused of being Al Shabaab militants, which is in violation of international law (AFP, 24/08/2014).
Puntland: On 8 January, former Prime Minister Abdiweli Mohamed Ali Gaas was elected President of the self-declared semi-autonomous region Puntland. On 14 October, the federal Government and Puntland state signed an agreement to review and implement the Provisional Federal Constitution and hold democratic elections in 2016 (AU, 14/10/2014). Two months before, the region had cut ties with the federal Government after it learned of the formation of a new federal state in central Somalia, incorporating Mudug and Galgaduud regions, allegedly therefore including part of the Puntland region (VOA, 14/08/2014).
Over 2,200 conflict incidents with humanitarian impact were reported in the first nine months of the year, including military operations, active hostilities, and other forms of violence against civilians (OCHA, 17/10/2014). Security is said to have deteriorated since March, and the launch of the Somali National Armed Forces (SNAF) and African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) military offensive against Al Shabaab-held areas. The number of attacks and fatalities had decreased between 2010 and 2013.
On 19 October, armed men and rioters blocked and attacked AMISOM peacekeepers while on a reconciliation mission in Hiiran region. There was an exchange of fire in Deefowm, about 40 kilometres north of Beletweyne. Several people were injured, although it is unclear if there are any casualties (AU, All Africa, 19/10/2014).
Al Shabaab, a militant Islamist group linked to Al Qaeda, took over most of southern Somalia in 2006, seeking to establish an Islamic state. Defeated by Ethiopian and Somali forces in 2007, Al Shabaab was forced out of Mogadishu in 2011 and Kismayo in 2012, and lost Barawe, Lower Shabelle, in October 2014. Following the death of Ahmed Abdi Godane in a US drone attack in September, Al Shabaab has named a new leader, Ahmad Umar (also known as Abu Ubaidah) (AFP, 06/09/2014).
Al Shabaab is reportedly fleeing south and northeast as the SNAF-AMISOM offensive advances. Numbering 7,000–9,000 militants, Al Shabaab typically targets Somali government officials, AMISOM forces, and perceived government allies. Attacks in urban centres, particularly Mogadishu and along transport axes, are common. Five members of parliament have been killed this year
The SNAF-AMISOM offensive was launched in early March 2014 to recover Al Shabaab-controlled areas of southern and central Somalia: Bakool, Gedo, Lower Shabelle, Hiraan, Bay, Banadir, and Lower Juba regions (OCHA, 05/2014). In November 2013, the AMISOM force was increased to 22,000 from 17,600.
The second phase of the offensive began in late August. About 1.5 million people live in areas that could be directly affected by the offensive (OCHA, 19/09/2014). On 25 August, reports suggested AU and Somali government troops had seized Tiyeeglow in Bakool region (AOV, 25/08/2014). This means the Somali Government now has full control of all major towns in Bakool. On 6 October, international media reported that Somali troops had regained control of Barawe, a port town in Lower Shabelle that had been under Al Shabaab control for more than 20 years (AFP, BBC, 06/10/2014).
Mogadishu: A car bomb exploded on 12 October on a road leading to the government district, killing 13 people and injuring 19. Al Shabaab has not yet claimed responsibility for the attack (AFP, 12/10/2014). In September, a suicide car bomb targeting AU troops killed 12 civilians and wounded 27 (BBC, 08/09/2014).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
As of September, a USD 933 million humanitarian appeal for the country remains “severely underfunded” with only 32% having been received (UN, 26/09/2014). The UN issued a second statement urging donors to scale up their response to the most affected regions: Bakool, Bay, Gedo, Hiraan, and Galgaduud (UN, 10/10/2014).
Road access is severely constrained in 28 districts in southern and central Somalia due to insecurity, road blocks and encirclement of newly recovered areas by non-state armed groups. Even in areas where there has been no active conflict, illegal checkpoints, banditry, and demands for bribes are common (OCHA, 17/10/2014).
In some areas, the withdrawal of Al Shabaab from key towns in the south has enabled increased international presence (OCHA, 21/03/2014).
Humanitarian needs in the town of Bulo Burde, Hiraan, have increased since the town came under government control in March, as roads have been blocked and commercial routes to Mogadishu and Belet Weyne have been cut off. This has caused the only hospital to close, and prices of basic food commodities to spikd (OCHA, 17/10/2014).
Security Incidents Involving Aid Workers
32 aid workers have been attacked in Somalia so far in 2014 (USAID, 30/09/2014). Aid workers have reportedly been targeted by armed groups for arrest and detention in Bakool, Bay, Gedo, and Lower and Middle Juba. On 18 May, a 400-strong UN military unit was deployed in Mogadishu with a mandate to protect aid workers (UN).
An estimated 1.1 million Somalis were IDPs by October 2014, 893,000 in the south-central region, 130,000 in Puntland, and 85,000 in Somaliland (UNHCR, 10/2014). 369,000 IDPs live in makeshift camps in Mogadishu. The total displaced due to the SNAF-AMISOM offensive this year is 80,000 – about 7,000 fled their homes in August and September, largely in Bakool and Lower Shabelle regions (OCHA, 17/10/2014).
In Nugaal, drought has aggravated the IDP situation, exposing them to serous health risks like acute water diarrhoea, malnutrition, and poor hygiene practices (ACT Alliance, 14/10/2014)
Mogadishu: As of August, a significant and increasing number of rural families were moving to Mogadishu, fleeing conflict or food insecurity (UNICEF, 20/08/2014). However, 23,000 IDPs have been unlawfully evicted since the beginning of the year (USAID, 30/09/2014). More than 10,800 IDPs were evicted in Mogadishu in late August and early September, mainly from Daynile and Hodan, according to UNHCR. The evicted have moved to the outskirts of Mogadishu and remote areas, where they lack physical security and access to basic services (OCHA, 19/09/2014).
The Tripartite Agreement between the Kenyan and Somali Governments and UNHCR, signed in November 2013, establishes a legal framework for those Somali refugees wishing to return home (UNHCR 15/08/2014). Three areas have been designated to receive returnees: Luuq, Baidowa, and Kismayo. The first phase of voluntary repatriation started this month, but only 3,000 refugees registered, compared to the original target of 10,000. Refugees cite insecurity and lack of earning opportunities as their main uncertainties regarding a return to Somalia (UNHCR, East African, 02/08/2014; UNHCR, 11/08/2014). As of 7 September, 2,500 returnees are set to be relocated to Somalia by the end of October (Kenya Daily Nation, 07/09/2014).
Somali Refugees in Neighbouring Countries
As of 9 April, 956,000 Somalis were refugees in neighbouring countries, around 439,000 in Kenya, 245,000 in Ethiopia, and 230,000 in Yemen (UNHCR).
Kenya: In March, the Kenyan Government ordered all city-based refugees to relocate to Dadaab and Kakuma camps, and asked Kenyans to report refugees not in camps to the police. Thousands of Somalis were rounded up, some were forcibly relocated, and hundreds have been deported to Somalia (Human Rights Watch, 11/04/2014).
Of the total population of 7.5 million, 1,025,000 people face Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phase 3/4) food insecurity, an increase of 20% since January, and an additional 2.1 million people face Stressed conditions (IPC Phase 2) (OCHA, 19/09/2014). About 62% of those who face acute food insecurity are IDPs, 27% live in rural areas, and 11% are the urban poor (FEWSNET 30/09/2014).
Somaliland: 7,000 people are in Phase 3/4; 472,000 people are in Phase 2; there are 84,000 IDPs (OCHA, 03/06/2014; 31/05/2014).
Puntland: 60,000 people are in Phase 3/4; 240,000 are in Phase 2; there are 129,000 IDPs (OCHA, 03/06/2014; 31/05/2014). Recent violence in Puntland has reportedly scared traders away, leading to fluctuations in food prices and increasing food insecurity in Somaliland and Puntland (ICRC, 31/07/2014). The situation has continued to deteriorate despite improvements in water and pasture following recent gu rains, due to the severe impact of six consecutive seasons of drought, and high food and non-food prices (ACT Alliance, 14/10/2014).
South-central: 155,000 people are in Phase 3/4; 1,336 are in Phase 2, and there are 952,000 IDPs (OCHA, 03/06/2014; 31/05/2014). A food security conditions survey indicates food security is deteriorating. 12.9% of respondents in May reported poor or borderline food consumption, while 21.9% of them in August. The increase matches the expected seasonal pattern, as the lean season advances (WFP, 08/10/2014). Regions with significant amounts of the population facing Phases 3 and 4 food insecurity are Galgaduud, Hiraan, Middle Shabelle, Bari, Mudug, Nugaal, Middle Juba, Lower Juba, and Sanaag (OCHA, 21/05/2014). In northern Gedo, the gu rains ended early and were below average. Coupled with above-average temperatures since February, high water prices, and low incomes, poor households are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) (FEWSNET, 15/10/2014). It is estimated that 70% of the population is affected by drought, and 1,500 people have been displaced from rural to urban areas within Gedo (OCHA, 17/10/2014).
Agriculture and Markets
Parts of Lower Juba, Gedo, and northeastern central regions, and many pastoral areas remain very dry. Water points are depleted and water prices are high. Water availability is unlikely to increase until the deyr rains in mid-October (FEWSNET, 30/09/2014). On the other hand, rainfall is expected to increase in northern Somalia, with flash flood alerts issued for Bari, Nugaal, Sool and Sanaag (FAO, 02/10/2014).
Trade restrictions stemming from inter-clan conflicts and obstructions by Al Shabaab in rural areas of the south have impeded market flows in El Barde, Wajid, and Hudur (Bakool region); Luuq (Gedo); Bulo Burde and Jalawsi (Hiraan); and Marka and Woryoley (Lower Shabelle). This has inflated food prices and increased unemployment (USAID, 30/09/2014). Al Shabaab continues to control key supply routes, hampering commercial activities (USAID, 30/09/2014).
In July, food prices in Hudur, Wajid, Burdhubo, Garbaharey, Bulo Burde, Qoryole, and Albuur were 30–150% higher than usual (ICRC, 31/07/2014). Local grain prices increased from April to May in all markets of the south; the highest monthly gain (28%) was recorded in Bakool region. Cereal prices have increased since the beginning of the year in Bakool, Hiraan, Juba, and Shabelle.
Health and Nutrition
A recent survey indicates 218,000 children under five are acutely malnourished. Of these, 43,800 are severely malnourished (FEWSNET, 02/09/2014), a 7% increase since January (OCHA, 02/10/2014). 756,000 people are in need of quality nutrition services (OCHA, 02/10/2014).
IDP populations: In July, Garrowe IDPs showed very critical levels of acute malnutrition (over 20% GAM), and IDPs in Mogadishu, Dhobley, and Kismayo (south Somalia) and Dhusamareb and Galkayo (central Somalia) were at critical levels (over 15% GAM). IDPs in Beletweyne were in a similar or worse condition (ICRC 31/07/2014). GAM among displaced communities in Mogadishu was at 18.9% and SAM at 5.5% (OCHA 24/07/2014).
Host communities in Mogadishu have been affected by malnutrition, with an increase in GAM to 10.1% (OCHA, 24/07/2014).
7,000 measles cases have been recorded in 2014 (OCHA, 19/09/2014). Only one-third of children have been vaccinated: 520,000 children under five urgently require measles vaccination in outbreak areas. An emergency vaccination campaign in September is targeting the most affected regions: Banadir, Bari, Lower Juba, Mudug and Nugaal (OCHA, 19/09/2014).
The total number of confirmed polio cases in 2014 stands at 198 (WHO, UNICEF 22/07/2014). The first confirmed case of wild poliovirus since 2007 was reported in Mogadishu on 9 May 2013. Large, insecure areas of south-central Somalia have not conducted immunisation campaigns since 2009, leaving 600,000 children vulnerable, according to the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.
2.75 million people need safe water (OCHA, 02/10/2014). IDPs living in overcrowded camps have inadequate access to safe water, hygiene, and sanitation facilities (UNICEF, 31/08/2014). Water trucking is urgently required in drought-affected areas, especially Lower Juba, Gedo, northeastern central regions and pastoral areas (OCHA, 02/10/2014).
The population of south-central Somalia has little to no access to clean drinking water. There is a severe water shortage for livestock in the northeast, parts of the northwest, central and north Gedo regions (FEWSNET, 02/09/2014).
About 1,000 cases of SGBV were reported in Mogadishu in the first six months of the year (OCHA, 17/10/2014). On 8 September, a Human Rights Watch report stated that AU forces have been raping and sexually exploiting women and girls in their bases in Mogadishu, sometimes using humanitarian assistance to coerce them into sexual activities (HRW, 08/09/2014). The prevalence of gender-based violence in Somalia, including rape, is reported to be one of the highest in the world, with IDPs and migrants being the most vulnerable (IOM, 08/08/2014). Impunity is widespread as traditional laws often discriminate against women and girls (OCHA).
South Sudan Country Analysis
14–16 October: Heavy flooding was reported in Lakes, Jonglei, and Unity states; nearly 900 households displaced in Bor and nearly 700 in Rumbek East.
9–10 October: Three UNMISS contractors and one WFP staff member were seized by unidentified armed men at Malakal airport. Two of the UNMISS contractors have been released.
- The onset of the peak rainy season has complicated the delivery of humanitarian aid to many areas in Jonglei and Unity states (IOM 16/07/2014).
- 3.8 million people are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance, 3.1 million of whom have been reached (OCHA, 18/09/2014).
- 1.5 million people are facing Crisis and Emergency levels (IPC Phases 3 and 4) of food insecurity for October and December 2014 (IPC, 09/2014). From January to March 2015, 2.5 million people are projected to be in Crisis or Emergency Phase, including nearly half of the population of Greater Upper Nile (IPC, 09/2014).
- 4 out of 5.8 million people in need of health assistance have not been reached (WHO, 07/2014).
- 1.4 million IDPs since December 2013 (OCHA, 09/2014). Almost 96,000 civilians sheltering in UNMISS bases (UNMISS, 09/2014). 68% of IDPs are estimated to live in flood-prone areas (OCHA, 08/2014).
- Over 453,000 South Sudanese refugees moved across borders since December 2013 (UNHCR 09/2014)
- The high number of refugees in South Sudan (mainly from Sudan, DRC, Ethiopia and CAR) is cause for concern in the current context.
Jonglei, Upper Nile, and Unity are priority states, and the priority sectors are food security and livelihoods, health, NFIs and shelter, nutrition, and WASH. Insecurity is hampering the delivery of assistance. The UN reports widespread violation of human rights and targeted violence against civilians.
Violence has spread across eastern South Sudan since December 2013. Fighting is most intense in the oil-rich northeastern states. Strife has progressively adopted the characteristics of an inter-communal conflict between the Dinka tribe allied to South Sudan President Kiir and government forces, and the Nuer loosely allied with former South Sudan Vice President Riek Machar.
Relations between Sudan and South Sudan have been poor since South Sudan gained independence in 2011. The violence in South Sudan since December has exacerbated tensions, with additional concerns in Khartoum regarding an influx of refugees and arms, as well as disruption of oil flow. In April, Sudan accused that South Sudan of using Sudanese militia groups to fight insurgents. South Sudan made similar accusations in return.
A UN report indicated the presence of 660 SPLA forces and police in Abyei in February and March, in violation of the 2011 Agreement on Temporary Security and Administrative Arrangements for Abyei. Pro-government Sudanese militias and Sudanese Armed Forces have also been reported in the area.
President Kiir’s government forces, who are backed by Ugandan troops, are pitted against a loose alliance of military defectors loyal to former Vice President Riek Machar, along with ethnic Nuer militia forces. Large-scale killings in Bentiu and Bor in April have brought the ethnic dimension of the conflict under closer scrutiny. Both sides have been accused of trying to influence the conflict through manipulation of the media.
On 27 September, President Salva Kiir agreed to install a federal system of governance, following calls for a federalist structure from SPLM-in-Opposition (local media).
On 25 August, the Implementation Matrix for the Cessation of Hostilities was signed by the South Sudanese Government and the SPLM/A-in-Opposition, and requires the immediate freezing of forces’ positions (IGAD, 27/08/2014). Talks, mediated by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), an East African regional bloc, had been repeatedly suspended and delayed. On 26 February, both parties accepted, in principle, a proposal from IGAD for an interim government, pending presidential elections.
Fighting persists despite a reduction in violence since January. Most violence is occurring in the oil-rich northeastern states of Unity, Upper Nile, and Jonglei.
The death toll was estimated at 10,000 in January since December 2013 (International Crisis Group), although access restrictions make numbers hard to verify. Over 5,900 people had sought treatment for gunshot wounds between mid-December 2013 and 12 March, according to humanitarian partners.
International Military Presence
In March, South Sudan approved the deployment of a regional force drawn from IGAD member states. The size, mandate, command, and deployment time frame of the contingent are still under discussion. Uganda has announced that it will withdraw its troops supporting the SPLA as soon as the regional force is ready to take over.
The UNMISS command told the UN Security Council in 19 March that it would suspend its activities to focus on protection of civilians, prevention of inter-communal clashes, and support to IGAD as requested. The UN Security Council voted on 24 December to increase the number of peacekeepers in the country from 10,000 to 12,500.
Clashes between the Government and SPLM-in-Opposition
Clashes were reported in Ayod county in August, whereas the situation remained calm in the rest of the state (UNICEF, 26/08/2014). No clashes were reported in September and early October.
The situation in Bentiu reportedly improved at the end of August, as the frontline moved west, after violence flared in mid-July (OCHA, 28/08/2014). The security situation was reportedly calm in September and early October.
Clashes were reported in Canal and Dolieb in September. Heavy shelling was reported in Renk. Civilians were fleeing towards Wanthou at the Sudan border (OCHA, 18/09/2014).
On 3 April, according to local media, representatives of the Nuer community stated that over 17,000 Nuer had been killed by pro-government forces since December.
Inter-clan animosity stems from competition over water resources and grazing land. Deaths from inter-communal fighting have increased since the second Sudanese civil war, as have attacks, abductions, and significant population displacement.
On 30 September, 12 people, including women and children, were killed during an attack on a village in Cueibet county (local media, 01/10/2014).
On 16 September, inter-communal clashes reportedly killed at least 14 people in Rumbek and Cueibet (OCHA 18/09/2014, Local media, 16/09/2014).
Communal violence that began on 15 September between communities along the South Sudan–Uganda border, including in Kajo-Keji county, and Moyo district in Uganda, forced 12,000 South Sudanese refugees to return to South Sudan (UNMISS, 25/09/2014). Close to 2,000 people, mainly South Sudanese, have sought shelter in Kajo-Keji (local media, 06/10/2014).
On 7 October, three people were killed following gunfire between SPLA soldiers and a group of armed people in the town of Chukudun, Budi County (local media, 08/10/2014).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
As of 18 September, 3.8 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance; 3.1 million had been reached (OCHA, 18/09/2014). The delivery of aid is restricted by heavy fighting, logistical constraints, and administrative impediments.
On 2 July, international media reported that authorities prevented four UN staff from taking a plane, and confiscated their passports.
In March, the South Sudan Government announced it would implement routine searches of UN and relief organisation convoys, claiming it had intercepted arms and ammunition in UNMISS-contracted vehicles in Rumbek, Lakes state (UNHCR, 21/03/2014).
The establishment of a humanitarian corridor between South Sudan and Sudan was approved by both Governments and will enable the delivery of food assistance by WFP (UN, 26/08/2014).
As of 4 June, WFP was resorting to airlifts, as the rainy season made roads impassable. As of 10 October, WFP reported that road access was impossible between Juba (Central Equatoria), Bentiu (Unity), and Rumbek (Lakes); Wunrok, Turalei, and Abiemnhom (Warrap), and Mayom and Bentiu (Unity); Aweil and Gok Machar (Northern Bahr el Ghazal); Maiwut (near Pagak) and Guel Guk; Wau, Raja (Western Bahr el Ghazal), and Tambura (Western Equatoria), and Malakal (Upper Nile state); Guel Guk, Mathiang, Maiwut and Pagak (Upper Nile); Yirol, Nyang, and Shambe (Jonglei); Bor and Mabior, Ayod and Malakal (Jonglei); Bor, Gadiang and Akobo (Jonglei); Bor, Pibor (Jonglei), and Kapoeta (Western Equatoria).
At least six aid workers were killed in and around Bunj, Maban county, Upper Nile state, on 4–5 August. The attacks were blamed on a local militia, the Mabanese Defence Force, who reportedly targeted the workers based on their ethnicity (UN, 06/08/2014).
On 10 October, three individual contractors employed by UNMISS, who were working at Malakal airfield, were seized by an unidentified armed group of 15 to 20 men in uniformed and civilian clothes. Two men have since been released, but one worker is still missing (UNMISS, 17/10/2014). On 9 October, a WFP staff member was taken at gunpoint by eight armed men in plain clothes nearby at the Malakal airport (WFP, 17/10/2014).
As of 11 September, some humanitarian flights to Rubkona airstrip (Unity state) were suspended due to security concerns in the Bentiu area, hampering the delivery of humanitarian supplies (OCHA, 11/09/2014).
As of 11 September, over 1.4 million South Sudanese had been displaced internally and over 452,000 South Sudanese refugees had moved across borders since December 2013 (OCHA, 18/09/2014). Fluid displacement patterns and limited access to rural areas make numbers difficult to verify (UNHCR 11/07/2014).
As of 18 September, 1.4 million people were displaced in South Sudan: 582,900 in Jonglei, 289,300 in Unity, 232,600 in Upper Nile, and 133,800 in Lakes (OCHA, 18/09/2014). An estimated 748,000 IDPs are under 18 (UNICEF, 23/09/2014). Displacement patterns remain fluid, driven by violence, floods, and the search for emergency assistance (IOM, 03/09/2014).
875,000 IDPs live in flood-prone areas (OCHA, 15/08/2014). Flooding has been recorded in the displacement sites in Bentiu, Unity state; Juba, Central Equatoria state; and Malakal, Upper Nile state (OCHA, 31/08/2014).
100,300 IDPs are sheltering in ten Protection of Civilians (PoC) sites on UNMISS bases: 47,000 in Bentiu, 28,000 in Juba (Tomping and UN House), 18,000 in Malakal, and 2,700 in Bor (UNMISS 16/10/2014).
An influx of displaced people into Akobo area in Jonglei, from Nasir, Upper Nile, was reported in September (OCHA, 18/09/2014).
An assessment found 7,300 people displaced by recent fighting in Renk County, Upper Nile State. Most displaced individuals reported to staying in host communities and abandoned homes, Key needs identified include shelter and household items, food, education, protection and health (OCHA, 09/10/2014).
Flood-related displacement: 900 households were displaced following heavy rains in Bor, Jonglei, on 14 October (local media, 15/10/2014). Thousands of people were displaced and 3,260 houses destroyed following heavy flooding over 3–7 October in Twic East county, Jonglei state. Seven schools and four primary healthcare units were also destroyed (local media, 09/10/2014). Nearly 700 households were displaced by flooding in Rumbek East county, Lakes, in October and are living in the open (local media, 16/10/2014).
Refugees in South Sudan
243,300 refugees are in South Sudan: 221,580 from Sudan, 15,000 from DRC, 4,900 from Ethiopia and 1,900 from CAR. Over 128,000 refugees are based in Upper Nile and around 85,000 in Unity (UNHCR, 01/09/2014). Most of the Sudanese refugees in Upper Nile state reside in four refugee camps in Maban county (OCHA, 03/04/2014).
As of 28 August, 186,000 people have returned since the beginning of the crisis: 70,000 in Jonglei, 109,000 in Unity, and 5,000 in Northern Bahr el Ghazal (OCHA, 28/08/2014). This is a downward revision from 227,000 returnees in July (OCHA, 29/07/2014).
Earlier reports indicated a total of 1.9 million returnees from Sudan since 2007.
South Sudan Refugees in Other Countries
Over 468,000 South Sudanese have sought refuge in neighbouring countries since the onset of the conflict (UNHCR, 16/10/2014).
Sudan: 102,000 South Sudanese nationals have arrived in Sudan since 15 December 2013 (UNHCR, 15/10/2014). An estimated 165,000 are expected to arrive over the course of 2014 (WFP, 16/07/2014). 3,563 South Sudanese new arrivals were reported on 6 October following conflicts in Renk county (UNHCR, 06/10/2014).
As of late March, the Sudanese Government has refused to recognise South Sudanese nationals as refugees and instead considers them to be Sudanese citizens (UNHCR, 03/04/2014). The Sudanese Government stated that all foreigners in Sudan had to register with immigration administration by 1 April. UNHCR has declared that constitutes an obstacle to access to humanitarian assistance.
Ethiopia: 192,000 South Sudanese refugees (UNHCR, 07/09/2014). As of 27 June, the daily rate of arrival is estimated at 1,000 (UNHCR), down from 2,000 the previous month (local media, 22/06/2014). Some 300,000 South Sudanese refugees are expected in the Gambella region over the course of 2014 (WFP, 16/07/2014).
Uganda: 128,000 refugees (UNHCR, 10/10/2014). A total of 150,000 are expected to arrive over the course of 2014, a downward revision from 300,000 (WFP, 16/07/2014).
Kenya: 43,200 refugees (UNHCR, 07/10/2014). 100,000 are expected over 2014 (WFP, 16/07/2014).
Food security improved in August and September, and the number of people in Crisis and Emergency phases (Phase 3 and 4) has dropped to 1.5 million from 3.9 million, following normal rainfall, good conditions for crops and humanitarian response (WFP, 24/09/2014). 245,000 are in Phase 4 and 1.2 million in Phase 3 (IPC, 09/2014). 460,000 people are at Phase 3 or 4 in Jonglei; 365,000 in Unity; 175,000 in Upper Nile; 510,000 in Northern Bahr el Ghazal; 340,000 in Lakes; 45,000 in Warrap; 35,000 in Eastern Equatoria; 20,000 in Western Bahr el Ghazal, 90,000 in Central Equatoria (IPC, 09/2014).
Conditions are expected to continue on a positive trend through December, especially in areas not affected by conflict (FEWSNET, 09/2014). Green harvests of mid-August, as well as the main harvest in October, are projected to improve short-term food security. However, the situation is still much worse compared to a typical year at harvest time (IPC, 09/2014).
Humanitarian organisations have noted that food assistance and malnutrition treatment programmes had improved the food security situation in Unity state counties including Leer, Panyijar and Rubkona, as well as in parts of Mayendit, changing their classification from Emergency to Crisis levels.
Conflict is affecting major supply routes, displacing traders, and leading to a rise in food and fuel prices (FAO, 04/06/2014). The country depends on food imports, and a de facto devaluation of the national currency between 2011 and 2013, the reduction in oil exports, and the increase in imports, are have a negative impact on households’ purchasing power.
Impact of Seasonal Flooding and Dry Spells
In Panyijar county, Unity, the River Nile has inundated low-lying areas and destroyed sorghum crops (FEWSNET, 16/10/2014). Flooding in six out of ten districts is expected to further reduce already below-average harvests (FEWSNET, 01/10/2014). Flooding in Lakes state in September has prevented short-term sorghum harvesting in Awerial county and displaced livestock from cattle camps in Awerial, Rumbek East, North Cueibet, and Yirol East and Yirol West counties. Livestock migration is likely to threaten crops (FEWSNET, 01/10/2014; FEWSNET, 17//10/2014). In Upper Nile, flooding in Malakal county has hampered access to some farms. Flooding in Akobo county, Jonglei has reduced livestock’s access to pasture (FEWSNET, 17/10/2014). However, heavy rains in Kapoeta county, Eastern Equatoria, have improved pasture and crop performance (FEWSNET, 03/09/2014).
Erratic rainfall and extended dry spells in Pochalla and Pibor counties (Jonglei) will result in crop failure in some areas, reducing seed availability in second-season planting (FEWSNET, 01/10/2014).
Outlook for Food Security
From January to March 2015, 2.5 million people are projected to be in Crisis or Emergency Phase, including nearly half the population of the Greater Upper Nile (Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile) region (IPC, 09/2014). Conflict areas and flooded regions will likely experience more severe food shortages due to reduced harvests. A comparison of 2012 and 2014 imagery indicated that the planted area has declined by roughly 30% throughout the country (OCHA, 31/08/2014; FEWSNET, 29/08/2014).
Health and Nutrition
5.8 million people need health assistance, 1.8 million of whom have been reached since January. Waterborne diseases, including cholera and hepatitis E, are the most pressing health concerns (WHO, 25/07/2014).
6,065 cholera cases, including 139 deaths (case fatality rate 2.3%), were reported as of 14 September (WHO, 25/09/2014). Incidence is reported to be decreasing (WHO, 09/2014). Previous reports indicated 2,395 cases and 57 deaths in Eastern Equatoria; 894 cases and 17 deaths in Upper Nile state, and 2,378 cases and 49 deaths in Juba (UNICEF, 12/08/2014).
Five hepatitis E cases were reported in Mingkaman (Lakes state) between 18 and 24 August, bringing the cumulative total to 95 (OCHA, 28/08/2014) since the outbreak was detected in early March (Health Cluster, 05/07/2014). 55 cases had been reported in June (local media citing MSF, 15/06/2014).
Many IDPs living with HIV in South Sudan are unable to keep up with treatment because they have lost access to follow-up care (OCHA, 31/08/2014).
On 7 September, Jonglei health ministry reported an outbreak of kala azar (visceral leishmaniasis) in Akobo and Nyirol counties, which are controlled by opposition forces. The kala azar rate continues to rise, and is likely to be related to conflict-related displacement. To date, 5,214 cases and 158 deaths have been recorded in 2014, compared to 2,660 for all 2013 (OCHA, 16/10/2014). Kala azar is a chronic and potentially fatal parasitic disease of the internal organs transmitted by the bite of infected sandflies (Sudan Tribune, 07/09/2014).
In August, malaria was the leading cause of hospital consultations and deaths in displacement sites and health centres (OCHA, 31/08/2014). Malaria still accounts for a high proportion of disease burden, especially in the flooded areas (OCHA, 16/10/2014).
The screening of over 600,000 children across the country in 2014 has found an SAM rate of 6.7% and an MAM rate of 12.6% (UNICEF, 19/08/2014). 675,000 children are estimated to be moderately malnourished and 235,000 severely malnourished (OCHA, 29/07/2014). Twice as many will need treatment for SAM this year than in 2013 (UNICEF 15/07/2014).
37 counties have critical and very critical GAM rates; 33 are located in Upper Nile, Jonglei, Unity, Warrap and Northern Bahr el Ghazal states (OCHA, 04/10/2014). Akobo (Jonglei), Leer (Unity), Panyijar (Unity) and Longochuk counties (Upper Nile) have the highest rates of acute malnutrition (OCHA, 04/10/2014).
According to MSF, malnutrition rates skyrocketed in parts of Upper Nile, Unity and Jonglei states after the conflict began in December. MSF admitted more patients for malnutrition in Leer in May and June (2,810 cases) than in all of 2013. In Lankien and Yuai (Jonglei state), there was a 60% increase in admissions in the first six months of the year compared to the same period last year. High death rates have been reported in areas north of Malakal (MSF 14/07/2014).
An estimated 200,000 pregnant women will need urgent care in 2014; 30,000 of them are estimated to be at risk of dying of complications (UNFPA, 15/05/2014).
As of 25 June, access to safe water and sanitation remained a critical gap, particularly for IDPs (UNICEF).
Water supplies were reportedly insufficient in a quarter of displacement sites. In 40% of sites, IDPs rely on unimproved or surface water sources (IOM 15/07/2014). Water access in the Bentiu PoC site was 12.2L/person/ in early October (OCHA, 04/10/2014). Heavy rains flooded 199 latrines, worsening the ratio in the site from 71 to 96 people per latrine, setting back water and sanitation upscaling efforts (OCHA, 09/10/2014). The ratio of people per latrine is 41 in Malakal PoC site and 32 in Melut PoC site (IOM 15/07/2014). The average number of people per latrine among IDPs in Lakes state is reportedly 1:350 (OCHA, 06/06/2014).
Children are not attending school in 70% of IDP sites (CCCM, 17/04/2014). The inability to pay teachers’ wages has led to school closures in displacement areas (OCHA, 02/05/2014). As of 26 June, 78 schools were occupied, mostly in the eastern half of the country (OCHA).
UNICEF has identified over 5,830 unaccompanied and separated children since the conflict began in December 2013 (UNICEF, 02/09/2014).
9,000 children have reportedly been recruited by armed groups in 2014 (OCHA, 11/07/2014).
Early and forced marriage, rape, and domestic violence have been reported in Maban refugee camps (Batil, Doro, Gendrassa and Kaya) (OCHA, 16/10/2014).
16 October: Three military personnel from UNAMID were killed by a group of unidentified armed men in Korma, North Darfur (UNAMID).
12 October: UNHCR reported registering 1,700 refugees from CAR in Nyala, South Darfur. These refugees will be relocated to Um Shalaya refugee camp in Central Darfur (OCHA).
12 October: Clashes between Maaliya and Rizeigat communities in Abu Dungul, Sheiria locality, East Darfur left one tribesman dead (local media).
- Protracted insurgencies by armed groups are occurring across Darfur, and South Kordofan, and Blue Nile states. The conflict in South Sudan has also raised tensions.
- 6.9 million people (20% of the population) need humanitarian assistance (OCHA 31/08/2014): 3.5 million in Darfur and 1.2 million in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states (OCHA, 05/2014).
- 3.5 million people are projected to be in Crisis, or Emergency levels of food insecurity in October and November 2014, most of whom are in Darfur (FEWSNET, 09/2014; GIEWS, 06/2014).
- Renewed fighting took place between armed opposition groups, militias, and the Sudanese army in Darfur since March.
- 2.4 million IDPs. Two million in Darfur prior to the latest clashes (OCHA, 03/2014), and 399,000 displaced in 2014 (OCHA, 08/2014).
- Humanitarian access remains a significant problem due to insecurity, mines and explosive remnants of war (ERW), logistical constraints, and restrictions placed by the authorities.
Several regions of Sudan are facing large-scale internal displacement due to violence, widespread food insecurity, malnutrition, lack of access to basic services, and recurrent natural disasters. Humanitarian access to conflict zones is severely restricted.
Numerous, protracted insurgencies are being waged by several armed groups across Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile. Darfur has been the scene of inter-communal clashes and conflict between the government and armed opposition for over a decade, and fighting intensified in March 2014. Violence in Blue Nile and South Kordofan grew significantly after South Sudan won independence in 2011. Tensions also continue to run high between Sudan and South Sudan.
Profound divisions within Sudanese society have persisted since independence in 1956, and the Government’s exploitation of intercommunal differences has aggravated the situation.
On 17 May, the head of the opposition National Umma Party was arrested for treason after allegedly criticising the Government’s abuse of civilians in Darfur.
Eight East Darfur state government officials and 12 members of the state legislative assembly resigned in protest at attacks by Rizeigat gunmen without prompt action from the state and national governments to stop it (local media, 20/09/2014).
In late September, security forces carried out a detention campaign to prevent activists holding commemoration services for victims of September 2013 protests (local media, 28/09/2014). On 26 September, 12 political activists were detained on their way to a memorial service in Shambat neighbourhood in Khartoum North (local media, 28/09/2014).
Tensions between Khartoum and Juba, persistent since South Sudan’s independence in 2011, increased when violence erupted in South Sudan in December 2013. The disruption of oil flow is a key concern for both countries.
In April, according to media reports, the Sudanese Government accused Juba of using Sudanese militia groups. The week before, the South Sudanese army (SPLA) accused Khartoum of supporting the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM)-in-Opposition, according to local media. Both the opposition and Khartoum denied this accusation.
Sudan Revolutionary Front
The Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF), formed in 2011, is seeking a comprehensive peace process covering the whole country. The SRF is made up of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), mainly active in Blue Nile and South Kordofan states, as well as Darfur’s three largest opposition groups: the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM); the Sudan Liberation Movement led by Abdel Wahid Al Nur (SLM-AW); and the Sudan Liberation Movement led by Minni Arkou Minnawi (SLM-MM).
On 8 August, Sudan’s main opposition parties, the SRF and the National Umma Party, announced they had agreed to unite to bring about a transitional government. They announced they would not participate in the upcoming elections, which the Government has announced are scheduled for April 2015. On 4 September, an agreement between the Sudan Revolutionary Front and the National Umma Party was welcomed by the Government as a step towards a comprehensive Sudanese dialogue process (local media).
On 13 May, local media reported that the SRF and the Unionist Movement had signed an agreement aimed at unifying government opposition.
SRF has said it is ready to join the national dialogue with Khartoum and enhance its cooperation with the UN–AU Mission in Darfur (UNAMID), provided the Government lifts the state of emergency and allows unimpeded humanitarian access to war zones. On 25 April, the SRF published a roadmap for a peace settlement, according to local sources.
The Government is only willing to discuss the conflict in Darfur, and the African Union Peace and Security Council has called for everyone to join the 2011 Doha Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD).
The Darfur Peace Process
The Darfur peace process is stalled. The process does not include the SRF members, SLM-MM, SLM-AW, or JEM, who have consistently rejected the Doha process. However, UN officials have met with SLM-AW, SLM-MM, and JEM in recent months. In December 2013, the All Inclusive Peace and Security in Darfur Technical Workshop aimed to draw non-signatories to the DDPD to the negotiating table. JEM and SLM-MM restated their demand for a comprehensive, inclusive, just and sustainable, negotiated settlement of the Sudanese conflicts.
On 18 June, a group that seceded from the SLM-MM declared it would take part in the Darfur peace process and surrender its arms, local media reported.
On 26 May, the Darfur Internal Dialogue and Consultation Implementation Committee was launched during a peace conference convened by UNAMID in El Fashir.
Blue Nile and South Kordofan States
While the SPLM governs the independent South Sudan, the SPLM-North continues an insurgency in Sudan’s Blue Nile and South Kordofan states, which have routinely opposed government rule.
Negotiations between Khartoum and the SPLM-N collapsed in April, reportedly over the SPLM-N’s demand for a comprehensive peace process. Talks had been held unsuccessfully in February and March, and in April 2013.
Instability in the East
Despite being home to the largest gold mine in the country and Port Sudan, where all Sudan’s oil exports transit, east Sudan is one of the poorest regions. In 2006, the Eastern Sudan Peace Agreement (ESPA) was signed. But divisions within the Eastern Front (EF), the alliance that signed the agreement, are growing. Some factions of the EF claim they wish to join the SRF because of Khartoum’s alleged failure to implement the core elements of the ESPA. The government is reportedly allowing local militias to arm, and boosting support to Arab tribes.
Extensive military operations aimed to end rebellion in Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile began at the end of 2013. On 11 April, local media reported that the Sudanese Defence Minister had stated that continued armed opposition would be crushed by a military offensive in 2014.
Armed Conflict and Violence in Darfur
Security in Darfur has reportedly deteriorated significantly since late December, with almost daily air strikes from the Sudanese Air Force (SAF). IDPs in camps across the Darfur region have requested protection (local sources, 12/03/2014). Tribal conflicts have also contributed to insecurity.
A reconciliation agreement between Hamar and Maaliya tribes was signed on 27 September in West Kordofan’s state capital Al Foula. Intermittent clashes over land have occurred between the Hamar, from West Kordofan, and the Maaliya, from East Darfur (local media, 27/09/2014).
Tribal fighting has intensified during the last two years in Darfur and Kordofan regions, leading to thousands of deaths and injuries and forcing over 300,000 people to flee their homes.
Air raids have been reported frequently in Mashrou Abu Zeid and East Jebel Marra in August and September. Air raids have killed women and children and scorched vast areas of farmland. Aerial bombing was also reported in March and May.
On 9 October, a woman was shot dead by a soldier in East Jebel Marra (local media, 14/10/2014). On 13 September, four children were killed in a militia attack on a village (local media, 14/09/2014.
Attacks on commercial convoys and transportation have been frequently reported in North Darfur. On 10 October, five people were killed and seven people were wounded in an attack by gunmen on a commercial convoy in Um Keddada locality (local media, 13/10/2014).
On 26 September, militia killed a displaced man and wounded another in the Jely area of Tawila locality (local media, 26/09/2014). On 29 September, one person was killed and two young women raped in Tawila locality (local media, 29/09/2014).
On 13 October, farmers and gunmen clashed near El Salam camp (local media, 14/10/2014). On 5 September, four IDPs, including two children, were killed and 39 people wounded by government troops during a demonstration in Kalma camp. Demonstrators were protesting repeated raids by government forces over preceding weeks (local media, 05/09/2014).
Attacks by pro-government forces on displacement sites were reported in April, May and June in Zalingei, Kailik, and Niertiti. Over ten people were killed, according to local media. On 18 October, government-backed militia opened fire on a woman and her two sons, while they were working on a farm in the area of Bugla, about 2km south of Deleig town (local media, 20/10/2014).
Inter-communal violence: On 6 August, one person was killed in a presumed tribal-based attack in Um Dukhun (local media, 06/08/2014). The Sudanese army was reportedly deployed to Mukjar, Um Dukhun, and Bindisi, after clashes between the Misseriya and the Salamat tribes in June left at least 130 people dead, according to local media.
Inter-communal violence: By 20 August, at least 300 had been killed in clashes between Maaliya and Reizeigat by 20 August (local media, 20/08/2014). Since then, a militia attack against IDPs left one dead and three injured in Yassin locality (local media, 31/08/2014). On 21 August, police were sent to put an end to fighting in Abu Karinka locality (local media, 21/08/2014). On 12 October, clashes between Maaliya and Rizeigat in Abu Dungul, Sheiria locality left one tribesman dead (local media, 14/10/2014).
On 29 June, local media reported that clashes between Misseriya clans over pasture in Babanusa locality had left 196 people dead (OCHA, 22/06/2014). On 13 September, militia attacks in Sirba locality left one IDP dead (local media, 14/09/2014).
Armed Violence and Conflict in Kordofan and Blue Nile
Information on Blue Nile and South Kordofan states is difficult to obtain as government authorities severely restrict access to the fighting zone. The Sudanese Government announced that it would expand its counter-insurgency operations in Blue Nile state on 23 May. According to an SPLM-N spokesperson on 21 April, the SAF had launched an offensive in North Kordofan. Bombings had reportedly intensified in the region at the end of May, with heavy bombing of Kauda reported by OCHA.
Humanitarian Context and Needs
6.9 million people (20% of the population) are in need of humanitarian assistance; more than half are in Darfur and South Kordofan and Blue Nile states (OCHA 14/08/2014).
In March, 3.5 million people in Darfur, a third of the region’s population, needed humanitarian assistance (OCHA). This includes two million IDPs, 1.2 million non-displaced severely affected by violence, and 136,000 returnees or refugees from neighbouring countries.
In South Kordofan and Blue Nile states, 1.2 million need assistance in government-controlled areas (OCHA), and 800,000 are estimated displaced or severely affected by conflict in SPLM-N territory. Limited access to non-government areas makes verification impossible.
Humanitarian access for international relief organisations is a major problem. Humanitarian operations are heavily hampered by insecurity, the presence of mines and ERW, logistical constraints, and government restrictions.
August 2013 regulations ban foreign humanitarian groups and UN agencies from working for human rights, and the Government has banned humanitarian access to areas controlled by opposition groups.
Security Incidents Involving Aid Workers
On 16 October, three military personnel from UNAMID were killed by a group of unidentified armed men in Korma, North Darfur. The attack occurred when a patrol of Ethiopian peacekeepers were guarding a borehole (UNAMID, 16/10/2014).
Several abductions of aid workers were reported in June and July in North and South Darfur (IOM, 25/07/2014; UNICEF, 19/07/2014).
Darfur: As of 15 July, humanitarian agencies had access to 253,000 IDPs of a total of 266,000 in Darfur, and a cumulative 363,000 people had been reached by humanitarian aid (OCHA, 15/07/2014). ECHO reported on 4 July that officials had denied access to medical teams attempting to provide assistance in El Sereif and Kalma camps, South Darfur.
Militia checkpoints on the Kutum–El Fashir and Anka–El Tina roads hamper humanitarian access (local media, 03/07/2014). Areas near Kutum (North Darfur) and Adilla and Abu Karinka (East Darfur) were reportedly inaccessible on 26 May (OCHA). On 21 May, local media reported that UNAMID had allegedly been denied access to parts of Kutum area. Insecurity is hindering the movement of humanitarian supplies by road, especially to the localities of Um Dukhun and Bindisi in Central Darfur.
East Jebel Marra region has been virtually inaccessible since 2010. In April, thousands of IDPs were reported to have no access to aid in El Salam and Saraf Omra localities, North Darfur, and in Kalma IDP camp, South Darfur.
Blue Nile and South Kordofan: On 19 October, the Sudanese Humanitarian Aid Commission confirmed that international staff from UN agencies and international NGOs are not permitted to take part in an inter-agency multi-cluster needs assessment in Blue Nile state in November (local media, 19/10/2014). On 23 June, an INGO said that it was operating in parts of South Kordofan despite government denial of access. There has been no humanitarian access from Sudan to opposition-held areas in South Kordofan since October 2013.
White Nile: Heavy rains hamper the delivery of service to Jouri, Al Kashafa, and El Redis refugee relocation sites.
As of 11 September, 277,000 people have been affected by heavy rains and flooding (OCHA, 14/09/2014).
New rains and flooding have affected 20,000 people mainly in Sennar, and South and Central Darfur states (local media, 19/09/2014). On 11 September, an inter-agency mission reported that 368 homes had been destroyed in Hassahissa IDP camp, Central Darfur, affecting an estimated 1,800 people (OCHA, 14/09/2014).
In White Nile state, there are extensive sanitation needs in Al Kashafa, Al Redis, and Al Alagaya relocation sites. Flooding and subsequent poor road conditions have delayed the distribution of emergency household supplies to new arrivals (OCHA, 14/09/2014). Assessments carried out in Kassala (South Kordofan) and White Nile state in August revealed acute needs for emergency food, NFI, and health and WASH services (OCHA, 03/08/2014).
At 4 September, heavy rains had resulted in seven deaths, 17 injured, and four missing in Deleig, Central Darfur. 570 homes in the two Deleig IDP camps were destroyed. In Wadi Salih locality, 356 homes collapsed in the Jeddah and Jebelein camps. Torrential rain in Kass locality, South Darfur, has led to the death of 12 IDPs (local media, 04/09/2014).
70,000 are affected in Blue Nile state, 32,000 in Khartoum, 22,000 in North Darfur, 19,000 in South Kordofan, 19,000 in River Nile, 18,000 in North Kordofan, 18,000 in White Nile, 14,000 in Kassala, 13,000 in Sennar, 11,000 in Al Gezira, 8,000 in Northern, and 6,000 in West Darfur (OCHA, 24/08/2014).
The first half of 2014 saw more displaced in Darfur than in any year since 2004 (OCHA 20/07/2014). 398,000 people have been displaced in Darfur so far in 2014: 266,000 remain displaced and 131,000 people are reported to have returned (OCHA 07/09/2014). On 22 June, OCHA reported that government policy preventing the creation of new camps is an obstacle for IOM’s verification and registration of IDPs.
Overall, 2.4 million IDPs in the five states of Darfur reside in 46 camps and 68 settlements (82,530 orphans, 34,099 widows, and 52,352 sick and elderly), according to a survey conducted by the Darfur Regional Authority from December 2013 to April 2014. 3,324 villages were destroyed December 2013–April 2014 (local media citing DRA official sources 15/07/2014).
North Darfur: 121,000 IDPs; 130,000 returnees in 2014 (OCHA 07/09/2014). 729 villages were destroyed December 2013–April 2014 (DRA cited by local media 16/07/2014). IOM was able to verify 54,000 newly displaced since March in five sites (OCHA, 22/06/2014). 9,000 IDPs have been relocated from Mellit camp to Abassi. On 21 September, it was reported that militia in Kutum locality are imposing protection fees on displaced farmers (local media, 21/09/2014).
South Darfur: 99,000 IDPs (OCHA 07/09/2014); 736 villages were destroyed December 2013–April 2014 (DRA cited by local media 16/07/2014). Accumulated rain water has deteriorated WASH and health conditions in El Batari camp, Kass locality. According to residents, waterborne diseases have broken out, and food prices have risen (local media, 19/09/2014).
Central Darfur: 35,000 IDPs; 5,000 returnees in 2014 (OCHA 07/09/2014); 778 villages were destroyed December 2013–April 2014 (DRA cited by local media 16/07/2014). In July, conditions were reported to be dire, with nearly all IDPs in need of humanitarian assistance (OCHA, 20/07/2014; local media 10/07/2014).
East Darfur: 8,000 IDPs as of early September (OCHA, 07/09/2014); 331 villages destroyed December 2013–April 2014 (DRA cited by local media 16/07/2014).
By 16 September, community leaders reported that fighting between the Maaliya and Rizeigat tribes has led to the displacement of some 55,000 people (11,000 families) in five locations in Adila locality. Many people are taking shelter with host families in the area. Many women widowed by the conflict have reportedly become vulnerable to exploitation (OCHA, 21/09/2014).
West Darfur: 1,300 IDPs were reported by OCHA in September, in stark contrast with earlier local government figure of 373,000 (OCHA, 07/09/2014; DRA cited by local media 16/07/2014).
Jebel Marra: An estimated 100,000 people displaced or severely affected by conflict (OCHA, 14/08/2014).
Blue Nile and South Kordofan: As of 14 August, an estimated 800,000 people were either displaced or severely affected by violence in SPLM-N-controlled areas (OCHA 14/08/2014). This figures includes 700,000 in South Kordofan and 90,000 in Blue Nile, according to local estimates unchanged since 31 March (OCHA 19/05/2014). As at 18 July, an estimated 170,000 people had been displaced in SPLM-N areas of South Kordofan since April, according to the South Kordofan and Blue Nile Coordination Unit. With no presence in SPLM-N controlled areas, the UN is unable to verify these figures. Up to 1.2 million are either displaced or severely affected by violence in government-controlled areas (OCHA, 19/05/2014).
West Kordofan: An estimated 53,500 people in West Kordofan are in need of humanitarian assistance. Violence has displaced 12,720 people to Babanusa town and El Udaiyat village; 21,000 people to Debab village and Muglad town; and 11,500 people to El Salam locality. There are also 7,400 people in Ghubaysh locality who fled conflict in North Darfur, as well as 873 South Sudanese refugees in the Kharasana area (OCHA, 21/09/2014).
Refugees in Sudan
As of 15 October, 100,000 South Sudanese nationals had arrived in Sudan since 15 December (UNHCR). An estimated 48,000 are in White Nile, 14,000 in South Kordofan, 29,000 in Khartoum and the rest in West Kordofan and Blue Nile(UNHCR, 10/10/2014). A total of 165,000 are expected to arrive in 2014 (WFP, 02/07/2014).
6,000 displaced South Sudanese are living in the disputed area of Abyei (OCHA). An estimated 347,000 people of Southern Sudanese origin are currently hosted in Sudan (OCHA, 30/04/2014).
On 12 October, UNHCR reported 1,700 refugees from CAR in Nyala, South Darfur. These refugees will be relocated to Um Shalaya refugee camp in Central Darfur (OCHA, 15/10/2014.
On 18 June, 31,000 out of 85,000 people who had arrived from South Sudan had not received humanitarian aid (UNHCR). On 16 June, Khartoum state officials issued an order to evacuate informal camps hosting South Sudanese refugees, local media said.
On 1 June, Sudan was hosting 157,000 refugees, mainly from Eritrea, with smaller numbers from Chad, Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Sudan, according to February UNHCR figures.
White Nile: In White Nile, arrival rates have increased from 500–600 people per week to around 1,000 (ECHO, 23/09/2014). 3,563 South Sudanese arrivals have been reported following recent conflict in Renk county, Upper Nile state, with a majority arriving in Jabalain locality in White Nile state (OCHA, 6/10/2014). The Government has reportedly identified additional sites in anticipation of new refugees: El Khaira Tawakalna and Zalataya (UNHCR, 20/06/2014). All sites in White Nile state are currently beyond capacity. Access for aid workers remains a concern (ECHO, 23/09/2014).
Sudanese Refugees in Other Countries
As of 31 May, OCHA reported that there were 352,000 Sudanese refugees in Chad, 216,000 in South Sudan, 33,000 in Ethiopia, and 5,000 in Central African Republic.
As of 29 September, significant improvements in food security are expected in most parts of Sudan starting in late September, as green and early-maturing crops become available for consumption (FEWSNET, 29/09/2014). 3.5 million people are projected to be in Crisis, or Emergency levels of food insecurity in October and November; most are in Darfur (FEWSNET, 09/2014; GIEWS, 06/2014). IDPs make up 80% of food insecure people (FAO, 10/04/2014).
On 16 September, FEWSNET forecast that due to continued displacement and insecurity in Darfur and South Kordofan, the country would remain at Crisis level of food insecurity through March 2015.
In South Kordofan, the Nuba face critical food security conditions, according to the Nuba Relief and Reconstruction Organisation (local media, 21/09/2014).
Agriculture and Markets
Harvest prospects for the 2013/14 main agricultural season are expected to be 30–35% below the national average, mainly due to late and insufficient rains at critical times in the season. As of late February, retail sorghum harvest outputs were 50% below average in Darfur (FEWSNET).
Insecurity and conflict are expected to reduce harvest prospects, cause continued destruction of assets, and obstruct access to markets and food assistance.
On 7 September, a Red Sea state government official reported that food prices in the state had gone up 100% (local media, 07/09/2014).
Health and Nutrition
The UN estimated in mid-December 2013 that 165,000 children in SPLM-N-controlled parts of South Kordofan and Blue Nile do not have access to basic health services.
There are indications that the health situation in Darfur is deteriorating. The rate of schistosomiasis, also known as bilharzia, has increased by 70% in South Darfur (government sources quoted by local media, 07/05/2014). Local reports indicate that visceral leishmaniasis, scabies, and ringworm have increased since 2012. About 90,000 people are living without access to any medical care in Mukjar locality (Central Darfur). 50,000 people from host communities are in need of access to health services in Bielel locality, South Darfur (WHO cited by OCHA, 03/08/2014).
On 12 September, three gunmen in military uniform attacked the medical director of the hospital of Bindisi IDP camp, Central Darfur, demanding medicines. The hospital has been closed (local media, 13/09/2014).
283 cases of diarrhoea were reported in North Darfur between 10 and 24 August (OCHA, 24/08/2014). In the Kabkabiya camps, 14 infants died of diarrhoea between 21 August and 4 September (local media, 04/09/2014).
As of 21 September, 700 cases of hepatitis E have been confirmed in Blue Nile and South Darfur states, with almost half of reported cases (365) identified in South Darfur’s Kalma IDP camp. In Blue Nile state, over 80 cases have been reported. The number of cases in Kalma and El Salam IDP camps are gradually declining, due to response from humanitarian actors, but cases were increasing in El Serif IDP camp in September (OCHA, 21/09/2014). MSF reported an outbreak of hepatitis E in El Sereif camp with more than 400 cases at 21 June (OCHA 06/07/2014).
Two million children under five are acutely malnourished, an upward revision from 1.4 million at the beginning of August. As of 30 September, the GAM rate for Sudan exceeded the 15% emergency threshold, with a caseload of two million (OCHA, 15/10/2014). Half a million are expected to suffer from SAM in 2014 (OCHA, 24/08/2014). GAM among South Sudanese refugees had reportedly decreased from 20% in March/April to 13.6% as of 16 July (OCHA, 20/07/2014).
43,000 houses are reported to have been destroyed by floods since July (OCHA, 24/08/2014). On 3 October, heavy rains and strong winds damaged 700 tents in Kalma IDP camp in South Darfur (local media). On 7 October, heavy rainfall damaged 200 homes (150 shelters and 50 houses) at the Hassahissa camp in Central Darfur (local media, 10/10/2014).
At 7 September, severe water shortages were reported in Nierteti camps, West Darfur, following the breakdown of all water pumps (local media, 07/09/2014). In July, 17,000 new IDPs faced acute water shortages in sectors 7 and 8 of Kalma camp, South Darfur, with just 2.5 litres per person per day (OCHA 06/07/2014). In June, the 30,000 IDPs in Zamzam camp, North Darfur, were receiving only 6.6 litres of water per person per day (OCHA, 29/06/2014).
IDP camps in Saraf Omra locality, North Darfur, lack educational services. IDP children are unable to enroll in public or private schools in the area as they cannot afford the fees.
Over 3,000 school teachers in Nyala, South Darfur, have requested to be transferred due to insecurity, according to local media in July.
On 3 October, heavy rains and strong winds damaged caused serious damage to 16 classrooms in Kalma IDP camp in South Darfur (local media).
As of late March, the Sudanese Government refuses to recognise South Sudanese nationals as refugees and instead considers them to be Sudanese citizens (UNHCR, 03/04/2014). All foreigners in Sudan had to register with the immigration administration by 1 April. UNHCR has declared it constitutes an obstacle to access humanitarian assistance.
Mines and ERW
250 locations covering an estimated 32km2 are contaminated by mines and ERW, with the greatest concentrations in Kassala, Gedaref, Red Sea, Blue Nile, South Kordofan, and Darfur (UNMAS). South Kordofan is the most heavily-mined area of Sudan, according to the Landmine and Cluster Munition Monitor. On 26 August, 4 children died in 2 separate explosions in Sirba and Jebel Moon localities, West Darfur (local media, 29/08/2014).
Sexual and Gender-Based Violence
Numerous rapes have been reported by local media in North, South and Central Darfur since March. Between 1 July and mid-August, 45 people, women and girls, were raped in East Jebel Marra (local media, 18/09/2014). On 22 September, militia raped three women of the village of Kuku in East Jebel Marra. Between mid-July and 25 September, at least 30 cases of rape have been reported across Darfur (local media)
Syria Country Analysis
21 October: Turkey announced it will allow Kurdish Peshmerga forces from northern Iraq to cross its territory to defend Kurds in the besieged Kobane, in a move that fighters say could tip a month-long battle against the Islamic State (IS) in their favour (Guardian).
20 October: The US military announced it has airdropped weapons, ammunition, and medical supplies to Kurdish forces defending Kobane against IS forces. US Central Command said its forces had conducted more than 135 air strikes against IS in Kobane (Guardian).
16 October: Six children were among 14 people killed in government air raids in Jisrin, east of Damascus, and along the highway linking Damascus to Aleppo (AFP).
13 October: IS has claimed possession of half of Kobane and has surrounded the town, except for the north, where the border with Turkey lies; fighting is ongoing less than 1km from the border fence (AFP).
- 191,369 deaths documented between March 2011 and the end of April 2014 (Human Rights Council 22/08/2014). At least 200–300 people are dying in Syria every day. There are an average of 25,000 new injuries each month (WHO 25/09/2014).
- 10.8 million Syrians are in urgent need of humanitarian aid.
- 11 million Syrians have been displaced, including 6.5 million IDPs; 688,000 have been displaced by violence between April and June (SNAP 03/07/2014).
- 6.5 million Syrian children (within and outside Syria) need immediate humanitarian assistance, over two million more than one year ago (UNICEF 05/07/2014).
- 3,201,785 Syrians are registered or waiting to register as refugees outside Syria as of 16 October. Lebanon: 1,1137,500; Turkey: 1,066,000; Jordan: 619,500; Iraq: 215,500; Egypt: 140,000. Children make up 51.3% of the refugee population.
- 4.7 million people live in difficult-to-reach areas. Approximately 241,000 are living under siege. At least 325,000 children under five live in areas not accessible to humanitarian aid (UNICEF 05/2014).
- Expected wheat production for 2014 is 1.97 million metric tons, 52% below the average for 2001–2011. The total area planted with wheat in Syria is estimated to have declined by about 15% compared with recent years (FAO).
Conflict across the country has caused large-scale displacement and disintegration of infrastructure, leaving millions in need of food, health, shelter, and WASH assistance amid a dynamic conflict in which aid provision is highly problematic.
The conflict in Syria has been ongoing since March 2011; violence began after demonstrations demanding the departure of President Bashar al Assad.
Bashar al Assad won Syria’s presidential election of 4 June with 88.7% of the vote. The election was held only in the roughly 40% of Syrian territory controlled by government forces, and among Syrians outside the country. An official stated the turnout was 73.4%, or 11.6 million of the 15.8 million people called on to vote.
The Syrian Government announced on 25 August that it will work with the international community, including the United States, to fight terrorism and implement UN Security Council resolution 2170, targeting IS and Al Nusra Front (AFP 25/08/2014). The Syrian Foreign Minister told the UN on 29 September that Syria will not begin peace talks to end the conflict "while terrorism is still rampant" (AFP 30/09/2014).
On 13 October, IS fought their way into central Kobane and claimed half of the town. Kobane is surrounded by IS, except for the north, where the border with Turkey lies; fighting is ongoing less than 1km from the border fence (AFP). US-led airstrikes against IS have increased in number over the past week. On 20 October, the US announced it has airdropped arms to Kurdish fighters (Guardian).
IS is also battling to control other parts of Syria, including Al Hasakeh, where Kurdish fighters killed 20 jihadists on 16 October. As of 15 October, ground clashes alone in the battle for Kobane had killed 662 people since 16 September, including 20 civilians. IS lost 374 fighters, while 268 people have been killed fighting on the Kurdish side (AFP/SOHR).
On 30 June, Islamic State (formerly the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) declared an Islamic caliphate across a stretch of land straddling Iraq and Syria, defining the group's territory as running from northern Syria to the Iraqi province of Diyala, northeast of Baghdad. The group has transferred some of the weapons pillaged in Iraq to Syria.
IS’s stronghold in Syria is in Ar-Raqqa. It also holds large swathes of land in Deir-ez-Zor and strings of towns and villages in Al Hasakeh and Aleppo governorates.
Humanitarian Context and Needs
The UN estimates that the number of people in need of assistance has grown to 10.8 million, including 6.4 million IDPs, of which 50% are children. 1.65 million people in Rural Damascus are affected by the crisis. Approximately 1,117,000 people need humanitarian assistance in Idleb. In Al Hasakeh, approximately 582,000 people are estimated to be in dire need of emergency humanitarian support; 711,000 are in need in Deir-ez-Zor. Approximately 800,000 are affected by the crisis in Damascus, another 800,000 in Dar’a, and 748,000 in Homs. About 500,000 people are affected by the crisis in Ar-Raqqa – more than half the governorate’s population. 533,000 people are in need in Hama, mainly in rural areas, with lower numbers in the other governorates (OCHA 28/08/2014)
4.7 million people in need are estimated to be in areas that are hard to reach. This includes at least 241,000 people in locations that are besieged by either government or opposition forces, according to UN figures (UN Security Council 31/07/2014).
In October, the UN started cutting food aid to 4.2 million Syrians because of a shortfall in funding. Food will continue to be provided to the same caseload, but it has been cut to 60% of the normal food basket (AFP 13/10/2014). Further cuts are expected in November. For December, WFP has no funding available for programmes in Syria (WFP 18/09/2014).
During the September round of deliveries, WFP dispatched enough food to feed 3.94 million people in 11 of Syria’s 14 governorates; 93% of the monthly plan and a 5% decrease compared to August. The rise in transportation costs from fuel shortages slowed deliveries. Insecurity forced WFP to suspend deliveries to some parts of rural Aleppo and rural Idleb (WFP 06/10/2014).
The dispatch of non-food items (NFIs) has fallen significantly since April. August was the second-worst month after May, when the introduction of the new procedures created tremendous challenges in dispatching NFIs from warehouses to partners for distribution as well as importing NFIs (UNHCR 16/09/2014).
Security Incidents Involving Aid Workers
In August, the deaths of 21 medical personnel were documented. 16 were targeted killings. Twenty were killed by government forces, and one was killed by IS (Physicians for Human Rights, or PHR, 25/09/2014). In total, PHR has documented the deaths of 561 medical personnel since the start of the conflict, of which 252 were targeted killings. 553 deaths were caused by government forces and eight by non-state armed groups (PHR 25/09/2014).
13 UNRWA staff have died in Syria (UNRWA 26/08/2014). As of the end of July, 59 humanitarian workers had been killed since March 2011 (UN Security Council 31/07/2014, SARC 20/08/2014). 27 UNRWA staff are detained or presumed missing and one UNDP staff is in detention.
Trapped and Hard-to-Reach Communities
Aleppo: During the last week of September, three cross-border convoys through Bab Al Salam and Baba Al Hawa from Turkey allowed the delivery of rations to the eastern side of Aleppo city for the first time in over one year, with enough support for 75,000 people. Some 350,000 people are currently estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance (WFP 06/10/2014).
Al Hasakeh: On 23 September the Turkish authorities granted approval to implement UN humanitarian deliveries from Nusyabin to Qamishli. Shipment commenced on 30 September and the rations will provide support to some 225,000 people in the governorate, allowing WFP to meet its target in the area for the first time in over one year (WFP 06/10/2014).
Ar-Raqqa: Volatile security conditions and the presence of armed groups along the access routes have prevented deliveries since July, while assistance was intermittent and well below planned levels during the first half of 2014. Since 23 September, military action has further restricted access options (WFP 06/10/2014).
Damascus: Access to Yarmouk Palestinian camp is frequently disrupted. Since the end of July, there has been a significant decline in the quantity of food and other essential items that UNRWA has been able to deliver. Only very limited health services have been available. In several instances, the distribution of aid in Yarmouk has been interrupted or proved impossible on account of exchanges of gunfire and insecurity (UNRWA 18/10/2014).
Deir-ez-Zor: Volatile security conditions and the presence of armed groups along the access routes have prevented deliveries since May. Since 23 September, military action has further restricted access (WFP 06/10/2014).
Homs: Over 17–30 September, food assistance was delivered for 46,000 civilians in opposition-held Al Houle, Al Qabo, Al Ghor and Falla in the northern part of the governorate, and 2,200 civilians were reached in Al Wa’er, west of Homs city, which has been under partial siege since the end of 2013 and had not been reached for the past three cycles. 75,000 people are estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance. Food needs are believed to be high, as protracted access restrictions have resulted in shortages of basic food items and inflated market prices (WFP 06/10/2014).
Rural Damascus: WFP is still unable to reach several villages in western Kisweh, where at least 25,000 people are believed to be in need of assistance, and new arrivals were reported. Part of Mliha’s population fled after its recapture by the Government, relocating to towns in eastern Ghouta that have been cut off from humanitarian assistance for up to two years (WFP 09/09/2014).
In September, fighting in and around the governorates of Quneitra and Dar'a intensified, displacing over 100,000 people to Damascus and Rural Damascus (ICRC 17/10/2014).
Aleppo: The most populous governorate in Syria, Aleppo has 1,787,000 IDPs. The largest number of people in need (1,222,000) and IDPs (625,000) are mainly concentrated on the western side of Aleppo city (OCHA 28/08/2014). Kobane’s population used to be 400,000. More than 200,000 people have fled to Turkey. At 10 October, 10,000–13,000 people were thought to be trapped between the border of Turkey and Syria near Kobane. 500–700 mostly elderly people and civilians are estimated to be in the centre of the city (UN 10/10/2014).
Al Hasakeh: Over the last two weeks of September, large-scale displacement continued in the areas of Tal Hamis, Ya'robiyah and Gweran. Escalating violence between government forces and armed opposition groups forced some 30,000 individuals to seek refuge in the safer neighbourhoods of Al Hasakeh city, Quamishli, and surrounding villages (WFP 06/10/2014).
Ar-Raqqa: Starting from 23 September, reports indicate worsening humanitarian conditions in Ar-Raqqa, as fears over airstrikes are forcing thousands of families to flee Ar-Raqqa city, Al Tabqah and Ein Issa. Most IDPs relocated to surrounding rural areas as well as to Tell Abiad, close to the Turkish border (WFP 06/10/2014).
As-Sweida: 69,000 IDPs; most are sheltering in host communities, tents, and collective shelters across the governorate (OCHA 28/08/2014).
Damascus: 410,000 IDPs. Most are hosted by the local community and 24 official collective shelters host about 50,000 IDPs (OCHA 28/08/2014).
Dar’a: Dar’a has seen very high levels of displacement, with a large number of people having left the governorate and the return of refugees from Jordan and displaced from other areas. As of April, 33% of the estimated 2011 population of Dar’a (around 330,000) were registered as refugees in Jordan, and around 266,000 people were displaced within Dar’a (OCHA 28/08/2014).
Deir-ez-Zor: Heavy fighting between IS and opposition factions displaced approximately 76,000 people in August (WHO 09/09/2014).
Hama: Families continue to flee Halfaya, Aziziyeh, Rasif and Jid in northwestern rural Hama after fighting broke out in early September. IDPs are mainly seeking shelter in the neighbouring towns of As Suqaylabiyah and Muhrada (WFP 06/10/2014).
Homs: On 1 October, UNOSAT located 132 probable IDP shelters in the open desert along the border with Jordan, about 25km southwest of the Al Waleed border crossing. This is a 47% increase in apparent IDP shelters visible compared to 25 July (UNOSAT 01/10/2014).
Idleb: 708,000 IDPs from neighbouring governorates or within Idleb are in need of assistance (OCHA 28/08/2014).
Lattakia: 300,000 IDPs; the majority reside in Lattakia city. Of the six shelters, the Sport City hosts around 1,400 families from rural Idleb and rural Aleppo (OCHA 28/08/2014).
Quneitra: Escalating fighting pushed people to flee towards opposition-controlled areas in southwest Dar’a and southeast Quneitra, where access constraints prevent any food distribution from taking place (WFP 24/09/2014).
Rural Damascus: Heavy clashes continue in the periphery of Damascus city, forcing thousands of civilians to flee. Most IDPs have sought refuge in neighbouring areas. However, a spread of the conflict to Kashkoul and Kabbaza is forcing a second wave of displacement, reportedly to As-Sweida, Damascus city, and safer locations of Rural Damascus (WFP 06/10/2014).
Tartous: About 200,000 of some 452,000 IDPs are in need of humanitarian assistance, mainly in Tartous city, Mashta Hellou and Banyas. Around 1,600 families reside in 21 collective shelters; 14 are in Tartous city.
Refugees in Syria
An estimated 6,000 Iraqi families are in Newroz camp in Malkia area, while others moved to villages in Malkia, Qamishli, Amuda and Derbasia. Newroz camp is overcrowded and sanitation is very poor. Many of the residents are temporary, staying for short periods and leaving in the morning, when the Peshakapour-Semalka border is opened, as others arrive (UNHCR 07/09/2014).
Estimates indicate that hundreds of Syrians are returning to Syria on a daily basis; an estimated 1,000 Syrians previously seeking refuge in Iraq have crossed back into Syria. (UN Security Council 31/07/2014).
Syrian Refugees in Neighbouring Countries
3,201,785 Syrians are registered or waiting to register as refugees outside Syria as of 16 October. Lebanon: 1,1137,500; Turkey: 1,066,000; Jordan: 619,500; Iraq: 215,500; Egypt: 140,000.
In Lebanon, 53,070 Palestinian refugees from Syria (PRS) have been recorded with UNRWA. In Jordan and Gaza, 14,290 and 860 PRS respectively have approached UNRWA for assistance. UNRWA has received reports of around 6,000 Palestine refugees in Egypt and smaller numbers in Libya, Turkey, and East Asia. (UNRWA 06/08/2014)
An estimated 6.3 million people are in need of food and agriculture assistance (OCHA 09/08/2014).
Bread shortages are threatening food security in many areas. Production has plummeted as wheat flour, yeast, or fuel are either not available or sold at prohibitive prices, particularly in the north, where commercial routes are continually disrupted by clashes and most bakeries have been destroyed or damaged. Government subsidies have brought down inflation in some parts of the country. However, prices have risen over 75% in just over three months in parts of opposition-held Dar’a, Deir-ez-Zor, and Rural Damascus (WFP 06/10/2014).
54% of the labour force, 3.39 million people, are without work (UNDP 19/10/2014). More than half the population (54.3%) were living in extreme poverty at the end of 2013, unable to secure the most basic food and non-food items required for survival (Syrian Centre for Policy Research).
Agriculture and Markets
Ar-Raqqa is part of the so called “cereal belt” of Syria (including Aleppo, Al Hasakeh, Deir-Ez-Zor, Hama, and Idleb), which produces more than 80% of the country’s wheat. This year, cereal crop production in Ar-Raqqa has been particularly affected by conflict, drought conditions and limited access to essential production inputs. According to FAO estimates, Syria’s overall cereal production in 2014 amounted to around 2.4 million metric tons, approximately 18% below total production in 2013 and 38% below the five-year average (2009–13) (FAO 14/10/2014).
Health and Nutrition
In August, it was reported that government soldiers at checkpoints have prevented injured civilians from reaching hospitals. Hospitals in insecure areas continue to be targeted and government forces refused to allow deliveries of essential medicines and surgical supplies (Human Rights Council 27/08/2014).
Since the start of the conflict, some 200,000 Syrians have died from chronic illnesses due to lack of access to treatment and medicines.
Lengthy administrative procedures surrounding the supply of clinics have caused delays in distributing medical equipment and medicines to some areas. Insufficient access to safe blood is increasingly exposing the population to the risk of blood-borne diseases.
Even functioning hospitals are unable to cope with the demand for surgery, due to the increase in the number of injured – averaging 25,000 each month – combined with severe shortages in supplies and frequent power cuts. An increasing number of complications such as septicaemia, gangrene, organ failure are being reported (WHO 25/07/2014).
Syrian pharmaceutical production capacity has been reduced by 65–70%. The devaluation of the Syrian pound by more than 50% and the increase in the cost of medications has affected patients’ purchasing power (WHO 25/07/2014; 16/07/2014).
Attacks on health staff and facilities: In August, PHR documented nine new attacks on medical facilities, all of which were committed by government forces. In total, PHR has documented 195 attacks on 155 separate medical facilities since the start of the conflict. Of these, 176 were committed by government forces, 13 by non-state armed groups, and six by unknown forces (PHR 25/09/2014).
35% of Syria’s 97 public hospitals are partially functioning and 24% are completely out of service; 22% of public health centres are partially functioning and 17% are completely out of service (Health Resources Availability Mapping System cited by WHO 22/08/2014).
Aleppo city: Four primary healthcare centres and five trauma clinics are functioning; seven of 17 ambulances are operational. As of March, in the opposition-controlled areas of Aleppo city, there were an estimated 10–12 general surgeons, three–five orthopaedic surgeons, and fewer than ten internal medicine specialists.
Ar-Raqqa: The only dialysis service in the governorate was destroyed by bombing in March. It had served 200 patients (PHR 04/07/2014).
Damascus: As of April, only two of 18 medical facilities in Qaboon were functioning, and were only providing very basic services. In Jobar, there are no functioning medical facilities. In Yarmouk Palestinian camp, the only pharmacy still operating has been attacked by shelling and rockets at least twice. There were once between 100 and 120 pharmacies in the camp.
Dar’a: Five of Dar’a’s nine public hospitals are out of service and three are only partially functioning, with the one operational hospital serving a population of 256,750 (WHO 20/07/2014).
Deir-ez-Zor: None of the seven public hospitals are fully functioning, with two completely out of service (UNFPA 04/08/2014).
Rural Damascus: 24 of 44 private hospitals, three of six public hospitals, and 54 of 176 health centres are out of service (PHR 04/07/2014).
Diarrhoeal diseases are one of the main causes of death in children under 12 months old (IFRC 24/07/2014). The number of acute diarrhoea cases continues to increase, with 22,169 cases reported across the country in July. The highest number of cases was in Deir-ez-Zor. 533 cases of bloody diarrhoea were reported in July (WHO 22/08/2014).
2,173 cases of hepatitis A were reported in July (WHO 22/08/2014). 82 cases were reported between 1 and 14 June, 85% of which were in Deir-ez-Zor, where access to safe drinking water is particularly reduced (EWARS).
Leishmaniasis is particularly common among people living in communal shelters and is spreading to more areas; the worst cases are being reported from Aleppo, Deir-ez-Zor, and Ar-Raqqa governorates (IFRC 24/07/2014).
Worsening food security, limited access to water, poor hygiene, sanitation and health services combined have contributed to declined nutritional status among children under five (WHO 25/07/2014).
An estimated 200,000 pregnant women are in need of care in Syria, and every day, some 1,480 women give birth in dire conditions (United Nations Population Fund). The proportion of deliveries by caesarean section increased from 19% in 2011 to 45% in 2013.
The ability to provide basic reproductive health services and safe delivery in contested or besieged areas is further constrained by the low number of accredited heath partners. The same is true for treating victims of gender-based violence (UNFPA 02/09/2014).
It is estimated that more than 350,000 individuals in Syria suffer from severe forms of mental illness, over 2,000,000 suffer from mild to moderate problems such as anxiety and depression disorders, and a large percentage have moderate to severe psychological/social distress (WHO, UNHCR 19/10/2014).
36 polio cases have been reported in Syria since October 2013: 25 in Deir-ez-Zor, five in Aleppo, three in Idleb, two in Al Hasakeh, and one in Hama. The most recent case had onset of paralysis on 21 January (Global Polio Eradication Initiative 02/07/2014).
According to a July WHO/UNICEF report, polio vaccination coverage has dramatically declined from an average of 99% to 52%. The first case of polio since 1999 was reported in October 2013 (WHO).
876 typhoid cases were reported in July (WHO 22/08/2014). 1,056 cases of typhoid had been reported between 1 and 14 June (EWARS).
All parties to the conflict are increasingly targeting vital services, resulting in interruptions to supplies. This is aggravating the already dire water, sanitation, and health conditions in conflict areas and increasing the risk of outbreaks of waterborne diseases.
Syrian families consume 40% less water than they did pre-crisis. A third of Syria’s water treatment plants no longer function, and treatment of the country’s sewage has halved (WHO/UNICEF 22/07/2014)
Polluted water supplies, hot weather, and serious water shortages are heightening the risk of disease. Health staff are already seeing an increase in hepatitis A, typhoid and diarrhoea, and skin complaints, especially among IDPs living in communal shelters.
Since the first week of September, the mains water supply in Yarmouk Palestinian camp has been disrupted, apparently as a result of damage to pipes in a contested area inside Yarmouk. Drought conditions have forced Yarmouk’s 18,000 civilian residents to rely on untreated groundwater and a single well. These water sources are unsafe and insufficient to meet minimum water and sanitation needs (UNRWA 03/10/2014).
4,000 Syrian schools have been destroyed, damaged, or used to house IDPs, leaving the educational system on the verge of collapse. Nationwide, 51.8% of school age children were not going to school, but that figure reaches 90% in Aleppo and Ar-Raqqa governorates, and 68% in Rural Damascus (Syrian Centre for Policy Research 05/2014, AFP 12/09/2014).
In areas under IS control, particularly in the north and northeast, Fridays are regularly marked by executions, amputations, and lashings in public squares, according to a UN report in August. Women have been lashed for not abiding by IS’s dress code. Journalists and other media workers are systematically targeted.
Other non-state armed groups continue to commit violations, including summary executions.
US missile strikes reportedly killed at least seven civilians in Kafr Deryan in Idleb on 25 September (AFP/HRW 28/09/2014).
At least 188 civilians have been killed by government forces’ aerial bombing in Aleppo, Deir-ez-Zor and Rural Damascus in August and September (UN Security Council 30/09/2014).
There was a spate of new allegations of chlorine attacks in August. The most recent reported attack was on the town of Kafr Zeta on 28 August (OPCW 10/09/2014). A commission from the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons has found confirmation that a toxic chemical was used in three villages of northern Syria earlier in the year.
ERW and Mines
In a July remote assessment of child protection trends and patterns inside Syria conducted by the Global Child Protection Working Group, 42% of respondents identified explosive remnants of war as the main violent threat in Syria to children’s safety in the areas in which they were living (UNHCR 16/09/2014).
On 14 August, Human Rights Watch released a report corroborating allegations of mass deaths in government custody. A defector had taken photographs of an estimated 11,000 bodies in military hospitals and other locations in Damascus. The bodies showed signs of torture (HRW 14/08/2014). 20,000 people detained by the Government since the beginning of the conflict are completely unaccounted for, as are some 7,000 government troops held by opposition forces (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, 08/07/2014). Another 1,500 IS, other opposition, and Kurdish fighters have been kidnapped during battles in recent months (AFP 10/07/2014).
Children are increasingly recruited by non-state armed groups and by the Government’s Popular Committees to participate in and support hostilities. In Ar-Raqqa, children as young as ten are being recruited by IS (Human Rights Council 27/08/2014). Over 120 cases of the recruitment and use of children have been documented between 1 January and 19 August, including girls, and some as young as eight. More than half the cases have been attributed to the Free Syrian Army (UN Security Council 28/08/2014).
Yemen Country Analysis
9 October: A suicide bomb on the capital’s Al Tahrir square targeted a gathering for Houthi supporters, killing 47 and wounding dozens. Al Qaeda claimed responsibility (AFP).
9 October: Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak turned down his appointment as Prime Minister following strong opposition by Houthis, who then agreed to cancel planned protests (AFP).
9 October: 20 Yemeni soldiers were killed in a suspected Al Qaeda car bombing of an army post on the western outskirts of the city of Mukalla (AFP).
- 14.7 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance (OCHA, 09/10/2014).
- Over 10 million are food insecure, including 5 million severely food insecure (Comprehensive Food Security Survey 2014). Levels of food insecurity have doubled since 2009 (FAO, 06/2014).
- 8.6 million have no access to healthcare (OCHA, 09/10/2014).
- One million children under five are acutely malnourished; 280,000 are severely malnourished (OCHA, UNICEF 06/2014).
- 13.1 million do not have access to safe water and improved sanitation; 4.4 million lack access to adequate sanitation (OCHA, 09/10/2014). Open defecation remains the practice for more than 20% of the population (UNICEF 2014)
- There are 335,000 internally displaced people (IDPs), 227,000 returnees and 245,000 refugees in the country (OCHA, 09/10/2014).
Nearly 15 million people, over half the population, are in need of some form of humanitarian assistance (UN, 15/05/2014). This figure includes nearly all two million people in Sa’ada and Al Jawf governorates in the north (HNO 2014, 2014 Yemen Humanitarian Response Plan). In the central governorates, an estimated six million people need assistance, including food aid, improved water, adequate sanitation, and primary healthcare. More than half the population in Al Hudaydah, Raymah, and Mahwit (3.8 million people) need humanitarian assistance. A large number of returnees in the southern governorates have limited livelihood and income opportunities.
Yemen is undergoing a political transition process aimed at opening the way for fully democratic elections in 2015. In addition to economic challenges, it continues to face three concurrent security challenges: Houthi insurgents in the north; southern secessionists; and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) throughout the country.
Despite interim President Hadi overseeing a US-supported political transition, instability and violence continue across Yemen. On 28 February, a UN Security Council resolution banned travel and froze assets of people who obstruct or undermine the country's political transition and who commit human rights violations.
Shia Houthi insurgents from the far north, who already have de facto control over Sa’ada and neighbouring Amran, and parts of Al Jawf, and Hajjah governorates, have rejected the proposed division of the country, claiming it is unequal in terms of wealth distribution. In the south, a large portion of leaders are still aiming for a fully independent, unified south, according to local sources.
Yemen’s economic difficulties are adding to the political crisis. Oil revenues declined almost 30% between January 2013 and January 2014 (Yemen Central Bank, 02/2014). In July, the Government increased the price of petrol by 60% and diesel by 95%. Following a series of mass protests in the capital, Shia Houthi leader Abdul Malek al Houthi urged a campaign of civil disobedience (Al Jazeera, 31/08/2014). In September, Houthi militants gained control over much of the capital after fighting with soldiers loyal to the Sunni Islah Party.
The Houthis signed the Peace and National Partnership Agreement on 21 September. The agreement, representing a broad political consensus, stipulates the formation of a new Government within one month, during which the current Government will act as caretaker (Yemen Times, 22/09/2014). On 29 September, the Houthis signed an annex to the agreement, covering security and military conditions in Amran, Al Jawf, Marib, and Sana’a governorates, as well as other governorates witnessing violence (Yemen Times, 29/09/2014).
On 9 October, Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak turned down his appointment as Prime Minister following strong opposition by Houthis, who then agreed to cancel planned protests (AFP, 09/10/2014).
On 27 September, Houthis clashed with presidential guards as they ignored a demand to leave the city. Two fighters were killed and 15 wounded (AFP, 27/09/2014). On 28 September, hundreds of demonstrators demanded the withdrawal of all militias from Sanaa and the return of security forces, in the first protest against the Shi’ite insurgents since they overran the capital (AFP, 28/09/2014). A second protest was staged on 30 September (AFP, 30/09/2014).
Between the end of January and August, around 2,980 people have been killed in violence, including military and security personnel, Houthi insurgents, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) militants, armed Sunni tribesmen, and civilians (Yemen Times, 12/08/2014).
Various forces use the country’s oil resources to pressure the Government, and observers have warned that the economy will continue to decline if the Government cannot protect pipelines. On 30 July, armed men blew up an oil pipeline in the Wady Obaida area of Marib governorate, halting the flow of crude to the Ras Isa oil terminal on the Red Sea. The pipeline had been repaired several days earlier, having been bombed on 12 July. Similar incidents were reported in May (Al Jazeera). In July, tribes from Marib and Shabwah clashed over the ownership of an oil-rich desert.
Conflict in Northern Yemen and the Capital
Houthis, also referred to as Ansarullah, have been advancing from their stronghold in Sa’ada governorate towards other majority Shi’ite areas near Sanaa, and fighting has spread to Al Jawf, Amran, and Hajjah governorates.
Since the beginning of the clashes in Sanaa on 16 September, 274 people have been killed and 470 injured (OCHA, 02/10/2014).
In Al Jawf, a tribally mediated agreement calling for all parties to withdraw from Al Ghail district came into force on 18 September. Over 15–16 September, fighting in Al Jawf killed 22 people (Reuters, 16/09/2014). Over 5-6 September, at least 12 people were killed in clashes in the Ghail and Majzar regions straddling Al Jawf and Marib (AFP, 06/09/2014).
On 30 August, Houthi fighters attempted to seize a road that links the capital Sanaa with the oil-rich provinces of Marib, Shabwah, and Hadramaut, according to local government officials. At least ten men from local militias and the Yemeni army were killed (Reuters, 31/08/2014).
As of 30 August, the situation in Amran has calmed and the governorate is under de facto Houthi control (Middle East Monitor, 30/08/2014). Fighting in Amran escalated in June, with fierce clashes between pro-government tribesmen and Houthi fighters in villages close to Sanaa international airport. An agreement between the Houthis and government forces was reported on 9 July, although it is apparently subject to interpretation.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
AQAP, based in the south and east, has regrouped since a 2012 military offensive, with US support, largely drove the fighters from their strongholds. AQAP regularly targets army and security forces, oil pipelines, and foreigners for abduction. Being an affiliate of Al Qaeda Central, AQAP also cooperates with other Al Qaeda branches without involving the central command (Critical Threats, 18/09/2013).
On 30 August, President Hadi announced that his Government was ready to negotiate with AQAP, provided that foreign nationals fighting within its ranks leave Yemen (Yemen Online, 31/08/2014).
In May, the Government declared open war on AQAP (ICG, 01/06/2014). In April and May, government forces and tribal militias captured Al Mahfad, in Abyan governorate, which had been the main stronghold of Al Qaeda since 2012 (AFP). But the Government’s offensive has not been able to weaken the group significantly. (23/09/2014). At least 20 people were killed in AQAP attacks on military outposts in August, and AQAP has expanded its presence in Hadramaut (IRIN, 23/09/2014). According to Yemeni officials, Al Qaeda has taken advantage of the political unrest in Sanaa and at least 60 fighters have joined sleeper cells over the past few weeks (Wall Street Journal, 14/09/2014).
In mid-September, a regional leader of Ansar al Sharia, an AQAP offshoot, announced that the group was increasing its presence in Sanaa in preparation for a fight with the Houthis (23/09/2014).
Sanaa: On 9 October, a suicide bomb on the capital’s Al Tahrir square targeted a gathering for Houthi supporters, killing 47 and wounding dozens more. Al Qaeda claimed responsibility (AFP, 09/10/2014). On 27 September, Al Qaeda claimed to have fired a rocket that struck near the US embassy, wounding at least two Yemeni guards (AFP, 27/09/2014; Reuters, 27/09/2014).
Marib: On 28 September, a suicide bomber linked to Al Qaeda drove a car laden with explosives into Al Jafra hospital in the town of Majzar, used as a base by the Houthi movement, killing at least 15 people and wounding over 50 (Reuters, 28/09/2014).
Shabwah: AQAP carried out two suicide car bombings on military locations at the end of August (Reuters, 31/08/2014). Three soldiers were attacked on 2 August (Reuters, 04/08/2014).Two separate drone strikes killed seven suspected AQAP militants in August (AP, 16/08/2014).
Lahj: On 16 August, suspected AQAP gunmen killed two Yemeni men in separate attacks (AFP, 18/08/2014). Three days earlier, a roadside bomb killed ten civilians and three army technicians, and wounded another 13 in Saber (Reuters, AFP, 13/08/2014).
Hadramaut: On 9 October, 20 Yemeni soldiers were killed in a suspected Al Qaeda car bombing of an army post on the western outskirts of the city of Mukalla. On 11 October, two Yemeni soldiers were killed and three wounded when a roadside bomb exploded targeting a military vehicle in the interior town of Shibam (AFP, 09/10/2014).
At least 43 people were killed in August, either in clashes between AQAP fighters and security forces, or attacks on checkpoints and army facilities. The bodies of another 14 Yemeni soldiers were found near Seiyoun city (Al Jazeera, 09/08/2014). A drone attack killed three suspected AQAP militants (Al Jazeera, 16/08/2014). At the end of June, suspected AQAP briefly seized Sayun airport (Gulf News). The Wadi border crossing to Saudi Arabia was attacked (Reuters).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
On 25 and 30 September, denial of access prevented a coordinated multi-sector needs assessment in Sanaa. The recently signed peace agreement specifically calls on all parties to facilitate humanitarian access (OCHA, 02/10/2014).
The ongoing fuel crisis and insecurity are slowing humanitarian operations and access. Road closures further hamper aid deliveries.
Conditions in Amran governorate and neighbouring are improving. With calm restored, humanitarian partners are re-establishing operations, despite losses from looted facilities (OCHA, 04/08/2014).
Security Incidents Involving Aid Workers
The last kidnapping cases reported took place in Sanaa in April.
Population movements affect over 1.5 million people, and include people displaced by conflict, people returning home after conflict, and hundreds of thousands of returning Yemeni migrant workers, as well as migrants and refugees (OCHA, 11/05/2014). In 2014, 80,000 people fled their homes due to conflict (OCHA, 09/10/2014).
Several waves of conflict, lack of access, and the fluidity of displacement all make it extremely difficult to estimate new displacements and needs.
At the end of August, there were 335,000 IDPs in Yemen (OCHA, 28/08/2014). As of August, OCHA reported that the vast majority were hosted in five governorates: Sa’ada (103,014 people); Hajjah (89,136 people); Amran (79,136 people); Sanaa (46,228 people); and Al Jawf (24,700), with 8,000 newly displaced from Al Ghail (OCHA, 31/08/2014).
Amran and the North: Persistent insecurity makes humanitarian presence and access to Al Jawf governorate extremely limited (OCHA, 14/08/2014). On 25 August, 90% of residents from Al Ghail (around 8,000 people) were reported displaced, many to Al Hazm district (Islamic Help, 25/08/2014; Yemen Times, 23/07/2014). IDPs are with host communities or relatives.
90% of the population of Al Ghail, in Al Jawf is thought to have fled (Islamic Help, 25/08/2014). Despite a ceasefire, IDPs have reportedly not returned home in significant numbers due to concerns that fighting could resume (OCHA, 02/10/2014).
Around 800,000 refugees, asylum seekers and migrants require humanitarian assistance. More than 243,000 Somali refugees are living in precarious conditions either in the only refugee camp, Kharaz, or in urban areas. One million undocumented Ethiopian migrants also live in Yemen (ECHO, 27/08/2014).
January–August, 48,485 refugees and migrants arrived in Yemen. There has been a marked increase in arrivals of refugees and migrants from Africa, in excess of 10,500 people in August. Border controls have been relaxed between Ethiopia and Somalia since early 2014, which may have contributed to the increase in arrivals (OCHA 29/09/2014).
A group of around 200 Eritreans have been detained for several months upon crossing into Yemen and were confronted with homelessness after being released in January 2014. Most refugees spent between three and 20 months in a prison in Hudaydah governorate (Yemen Times, 19/08/2014).
At the end of August, 227,000 IDPs had returned home (OCHA, 28/08/2014). In August, returnees were located in Abyan (150,671), Sa’ada (76,132) and Al Bayda (8,155) (OCHA, 31/08/2014).
Between January 2013 and July 2014, 685,000 Yemenis returned from Saudi Arabia, as the Saudi Government restricted the activities of foreign workers (OCHA, 31/08/2014). Most returnees have acute humanitarian needs, and the returns place a burden on Yemen’s fragile political transition. An estimated 400,000 Yemeni nationals may return from Saudi Arabia in 2014.
Amran: As of 10 August, most of the at least 35,000 IDPs who had fled Amran governorate since the end of April had reportedly returned (IRIN, 31/08/2014); opponents of Houthis and those whose properties were damaged or destroyed may face difficulties (OCHA, 04/08/2014). Access to lifesaving primary healthcare is a priority (OCHA, 31/07/2014).
South: 155,000 people have returned to the south. Living conditions are difficult: reconstruction has not yet started, basic services are hardly available, and landmines are still a threat (ECHO, 27/08/2014).
Around 10.6 million people are food insecure, five million of whom are severely food insecure (Comprehensive Food Security Survey 2014 quoted by OCHA, 10/08/2014; WFP, FAO, Food Security Cluster, 05/2014). Levels of food insecurity have doubled since 2009 (FAO, 06/2014). 50–75% of the population in Lahj, Hajjah, Raymah, and Al Jawf governorates are food insecure. Over 80% of households in these governorates are estimated to be in debt to meet food needs (Comprehensive Food Security Survey cited by OCHA, 10/08/2014).
The combination of poor purchasing power and continued conflict is likely to limit food access for displaced households, resulting in a continuation of Crisis conditions (IPC Phase 3) through December 2014 for households in conflict-affected areas (FEWSNET, 27/08/2014). Food availability and access have become a major concern since 96% of households are net food purchasers, and several markets, especially Sa’ada market, are located in conflict areas (FEWSNET 07/2014).
About 58% of households do not have enough food or money to buy food to sustain their minimum consumption requirements (FEWSNET 07/2014). About 75% of food insecure people give economic concerns as the primary causes of food distress. Household debt levels increased from 2011 to 2014 (Comprehensive Food Security Survey cited by OCHA, 10/08/2014). The increase in the cost of fuel since July exacerbates the crisis (ECHO, 27/08/2014; FEWSNET, 27/08/2014).
Hajjah is the third most food insecure governorate in Yemen, according to the 2014 Comprehensive Food Security Survey. More than 32% of the population are severely food insecure compared to 31% in 2011 (OCHA, 31/08/2014).
Agriculture and Markets
Yemen is particularly vulnerable to international hikes in food prices, since it imports up to 90% of its main staple foods, like wheat and sugar.
Despite declining international wheat prices and stable international rice prices (FEWSNET, 01/08/2014), Yemen’s continued instability, currency depreciation, and low foreign reserve levels contributed to costlier food imports and higher local commodity prices. Increased commodity prices raised the cost of the food basket by 7% compared to the last quarter (WFP, 31/07/2014).
Insecurity is hampering agricultural activity as well as agricultural assistance programmes (FAO cited in OCHA, 08/10/2014). Farmers affected by the Amran conflict are in need of support to avoid losing the next harvest (OCHA, 31/07/2014).
Crop production levels will be lower due to drought and locust infestation in the northwest. (FAO, 03/06/2014).
The loss of remittances due to the expulsion of Yemeni migrant workers from Saudi Arabia is likely to have a severe impact on the lives of thousands of families (ECHO, 27/08/2014).
Health and Nutrition
An estimated 8.6 million people have limited access to health services (OCHA, 09/09/2014). Qualified medical staff are in short supply, as is medical equipment.
As of 2 October, all health facilities in Sanaa are back in operation (OCHA, 02/10/2014).
An estimated 1.06 million children under five are acutely malnourished in 2014, approximately 280,000 of whom are severely malnourished (ECHO, 27/08/2014).
Preliminary results of the CFSS show that GAM has improved considerably in Al Hudaydah, Aden, Lahj, Marib, Al Dhale’e, Hadramaut and Al Bayda; but severely deteriorated in Taizz, Ibb, Dhamar and Al Maharah. The net result is that national GAM has slightly improved: 12.7% of under 5 children are malnourished compared to 13 per cent in 2011 (OCHA, 31/08/2014).
An estimated 13.1 million people do not have access to safe water (OCHA, 09/09/2014), 12.1 million are without access to improved sanitation, and 4.4 million lack access to adequate sanitation (OCHA, 28/02/2014). Open defecation remains standard practice for more than 20% of the population and appears to be higher for young children (UNICEF 2014).
Displaced families in Amran district transit camp require WASH assistance (OCHA, 31/07/2014).
IDPs in Al Ghail district have to walk up to 17km to fetch water (Islamic Help, 25/08/2014).
750 houses have been damaged due to fighting in Sanaa (Yemeni Red Crescent cited by IRIN, 29/09/2014).
Unverified reports estimate that between 200 and 500 houses were damaged in the Amran conflict (OCHA, 04/08/2014).
Nationwide, an estimated 2.5 million children are not in school (OCHA, 04/2014). The drop-out rate is more than 20% in the 37 most affected districts. Over 350 damaged schools require rehabilitation or reconstruction, affecting some 72,000 children.
Four of the 51 schools affected by conflict in Sanaa were extensively damaged. Five schools remained occupied by fighters as of 30 September (OCHA, 02/10/2014).
Conflict in Sanaa has raised critical protection concerns regarding systematic violations of human rights and international humanitarian law. There are also reports that parties to the conflict commandeered civilian residences for military purposes, including the storage of weapons and munitions (OCHA, 08/10/2014).
In a survey, around 72% of Yemenis returning from Saudi Arabia said they suffered deprivation of food or water, detention, or physical and psychosocial abuse (OCHA, 12/05/2014).
Violations of child rights were reported in Amran, Al Dhale’e, and Sa’ada during the Amran conflict in July (UNICEF, 31/07/2014).
The Watchlist on Children and Armed Conflict has reported that Houthis, Ansar al Sharia, AQAP and state forces are all recruiting children (01/10/2014). Child recruitment by armed forces and armed groups was also reported during the Amran conflict (UNICEF, 31/07/2014). Armed children guarding checkpoints indicates the prevalence of recruitment of children by armed groups (OCHA, 08/10/2014).
In the first half of 2014, 285 cases of gender-based violence have been reported in Aden; many more remain unreported (OCHA, 05/06/2014). Women and children in Al Dhale’e face harassment from soldiers (Protection Cluster, 28/04/2014).
Mines and ERW
Landmines and explosive remnants of war are a major concern in the northern governorates. On 29 September, three children in Sanaa were wounded by unexploded ordnance (OCHA, 08/10/2014).
10 October: Nearly 4.3 million people in Burundi (43% of the population) do not have access to improved sanitation facilities (Belgian Technical Cooperation).
- As of June, 78,958 people are food insecure (OCHA, 05/08/2014).
Since the President’s re-election in 2010, scores of political killings, intimidation of the opposition, and a crackdown on media freedom have all been reported, which has cast a shadow over the post-civil war reconciliation process. Most recently, observers stated concerns on restrictions on civil and political rights, following a series of violent acts by the ruling party’s increasingly militant youth wing, Imbonerakure.
2015 General Elections: Proposed Constitutional Amendments
Deteriorating relations between the parties within the ruling coalition stem mainly from the desire of President Nkurunziza, elected in 2005 and again in 2010, to run for a third term in elections scheduled for June 2015. On 9 June, the Government, the National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI), and all political parties and actors signed the General Principles for the conduct of the 2015 elections (UN, 10/06/2014).
In February, the UN Secretary General was tasked with establishing an electoral observer mission to monitor the situation ahead of, during, and after the 2015 presidential election.
Humanitarian Context and Needs
As of July, Burundi has 78,948 IDPs (UNHCR, 07/2014). They are mostly ethnic Tutsis, located in and around 120 sites across northern and central Burundi. No new displacement has been recorded since 2008 (Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre).
As of July, Burundi is host to 56,856 refugees (UNHCR, 07/2014). Refugees are mainly located in the border regions of Ngozi (north, alongside Rwanda), Ruyigi, Muyinga, and Cankuzo (east, alongside Tanzania) and Bubanza (west, alongside DRC).
43,000 Burundians living in Tanzania have been forcibly repatriated. Limited information makes it difficult to quantify the exact number of people expelled since the end of July 2013. Many returnees, 65% of whom are women and children, have chosen to return to their province of origin without being registered due to a lack of reception facilities at entry points (IOM, 01/2014).
Land scarcity and high population density have resulted in pervasive tensions over land ownership. This is aggravated as a high number of IDPs and refugees are returning to their places of origin and claiming land where other families, often of a different ethnic background, have since settled.
Burundian Refugees in Neighbouring countries
As of 1 September, 13,400 Burundian refugees and asylum-seekers were residing in Uganda, corresponding to 3% of the total refugee population in Uganda. Most Burundian refugees are located in Nakivale and Oruchinga (UNHCR, 23/09/2014).
As of 30 June, 9,764 Burundian refugees were residing in DRC (UNHCR, 30/06/2014).
As of 31 July, 6,101 Burundian refugees were residing in Kenya (UNHCR, 31/07/2014), most of the located in Kakuma Camp.
Nearly 4.3 million people in Burundi (43% of the population) do not have access to improved sanitation facilities. This facilitates the risk of waterborne disease outbreaks, and is also a major cause of dropping out of school (Belgian Technical Cooperation, 10/10/2014).
As of August, 78,958 people were food insecure (OCHA, 05/08/2014). Poor households in northeastern livelihood zones are expected to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity until December, when food availability and access to harvests will improve (FEWSNET, 20/09/2014). Production deficits in Kirundo have led to atypical migration (FEWSNET, 30/06/2014).
Agriculture and Markets
Dry spells since mid-April – only 50–80% of average seasonal rainfall – have led to a rapid deterioration in ground conditions across Burundi. Production in the northeast was estimated to be 40–60% below average. In September, early seasonal rainfall enabled land preparation and planting for Season A. Above average rainfall is expected from October to December (FEWSNET, 20/09/2014).
Due to production deficits in Season B, prices remained higher than the five-year average but stabilised from June to July (FEWSNET, 31/08/2014), and staple food prices stabilised from July to August (FEWSNET, 20/09/2014). Variability in some areas has caused poor households to reduce non-food expenditures in order to cover food requirements. The most affected households are in the northeast (FEWSNET, 31/07/2014).
At least 36 cases of cholera were reported 15–25 September in Cibitoke province. Access to clean water remains a problem in this part of the country, with much drinking water drawn from the Nyakagunda River (international media, 25/09/2014).
Early October: 10 Chinese and 17 Cameroonian hostages held by Boko Haram (BH) since May were free in exchange for the release of around 20 imprisoned Islamists and a ransom. Cameroonian President Paul Biya vowed to fight BH until it was completely exterminated (AFP, 13/10/2014).
30 September: 1.8 million people are food insecure (OCHA).
30 September: 63,000 cases of severe acute malnutrition have been recorded among children under five in 2014 (OCHA).
- 131,000 refugees have arrived from CAR since December 2013, bringing the total to 238,500 (UNHCR, 09/2014).
- Cameroon hosts approximately 43,000 Nigerian refugees (IRIN, 17/09/2014).
- The 2011–2012 drought impact continues, with 615,000 people in the north at risk of food insecurity and malnutrition (WFP).
- 30% of Cameroon’s 20 million inhabitants have access to piped drinking water. In Yaoundé, needs surpass the current capacity by three times (Government).
The spillover from fighting between the Nigerian army and Boko Haram militants impacts on Cameroon and threatens regional security. Conflict in both Nigeria and CAR continues to displace vulnerable refugees to Cameroon (OCHA, 30/09/2014).
Armed attacks and targeted kidnappings and armed attacks by Boko Haram (BH) are on the rise, especially since May. The number of security incidents has already reached 36 in 2013–2014, up from 20 in 2011–2012 and 23 in 2012–1013 (UNICEF, 08/2014).
In early October, 10 Chinese and 17 Cameroonian hostages held by BH since May were freed in exchange for the release of around 20 imprisoned Islamists and a ransom. Cameroonian President Paul Biya vowed to fight BH until it was completely exterminated; he declared war on BH in May (AFP, 13/10/2014).
On 6 October, at least eight people were killed in a BH rocket attack fired from the Nigerian town of Banki, which hit the town of Amchide in the Far North region (AFP, 06/10/2014).
On 18 September, six people, including four civilians, were killed in Assighassia and Ganse villages, in the Far North region, following incursions by BH (AFP, 19/09/2014).
Over 28–30 August, clashes between BH and the Cameroonian army were reported in the village of Fotokol, resulting in the death of 27 BH and one Cameroonian soldier (ECHO, 28/08/2014). On 26 August, BH attacked the village of Kolofata (ECHO, 28/08/2014). Since June, BH has been raiding towns and villages near the border. Amchide town has become a significant base. BH has developed alliances with businesses and is reportedly forcing others to finance their activities (AFP, 24/06/2014).
Authorities in the Far North region have imposed a curfew and banned vehicle and motorcycle movement at night (IRIN, 15/08/2014). In July, troop levels along the Nigeria border were increased to 4,000 (ICG, 01/08/2014). On 23 February, it was confirmed that Nigeria had closed its northern border with Cameroon to block the movement of BH.
The security situation remains unstable in East region. Infiltrations of anti-balaka from CAR into Cameroon have been reported, and local authorities have asked UNHCR to expedite the transfer of CAR refugees from the border entry points of Kentzou and Gbiti in order to allow them to undertake search operations in the area (UNHCR, 22/05/2014). The Gbiti site has been closed. UNHCR and Cameroonian security forces are seeking possible locations for security posts at the refugee sites of Lolo, Mbilé, and Timangolo in East region (UNHCR, 04/07/2014).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
Congestion at the port in Douala has resulted in extended delays for the arrival of food. This has impacted the effective delivery of food to WFP operations for CAR refugees (WFP, 17/09/2014).
The escalation of attacks by Boko Haram is restricting aid operations in the Far North region (IRIN, 15/08/2014). UN agencies have only been undertaking priority activities such as assisting refugees and some host communities, according to WFP (IRIN, 15/08/2014).
Flooding in Bibemi, Benoue department, in the North region at the end of August affected nearly 3,500 people displaced over 1,380 people. The floods destroyed 223 houses, washed away farms and crops, and killed livestock and poultry (OCHA, 09/09/2014).
As of September, there are 291,000 refugees in Cameroon and 20,000 IDPs and returnees (OCHA, UNHCR, and partners, 09/2014).
Refugees from the Central African Republic
As of 10 October, 241,223 CAR refugees are in Cameroon: 133,637 have arrived since December 2013 (UNHCR, 10/10/2014). At least another 17,670 third-country nationals and returnees have arrived (UNHCR, 07/2014 and IOM, 25/07/2014). The number of new CAR refugees is expected to reach 180,000 by the end of 2014 and 30,000 third-country nationals are expected to need assistance (UNHCR, 17/07/2014).
The refugees are spread across the East (95,075), Adamawa (23,060), Douala (3,820), Yaounde (3,540), and the North (3,540) (UNHCR, 31/08/2014).
The number of arrivals has dropped from 10,000 per week to about 8,000 in mid-August (UNHCR). Access is reportedly hindered by militia requesting an ‘exit fee’ to leave CAR. MSF said most new arrivals are in critical need of medical attention (Voice of America, 13/08/2014). ECHO found that arrivals at the border are in acute need of almost all services (ECHO, 05/2014). Security is a concern: local authorities have reported the presence of armed anti-balaka in the village of Diel, and have doubled the number of soldiers guarding the border and patrolling the village (UNHCR, 22/08/2014).
Close to 60% of newly arrived refugees are children, of whom 20% are under five years of age. 96% of refugees are Muslim.
59,160 refugees have been transferred to sites: 44,600 in the East region, including 10,750 in Lolo, 17,540 in Gado, 9,700 in Mbilé, 5,900 in Timangolo, and 760 in Ngari-Singo; and 14,500 in the Adamawa region including 11,380 in Borgop and 3,120 in Ngam. An additional 62,930 refugees are living in host villages (UNHCR, 19/09/2014).
In most locations, the number of refugees and third-country nationals exceeds the local population, and living conditions have become very difficult for host communities. In some sites, the rains have created conditions for disease outbreaks. Access to water and sanitation remains below standard. In Gado, Mbilé, and Borgop, the quantity of water provided per day to refugees remains below 15 litres (UNHCR, 07/2014).
Bad road conditions delay the provision of assistance. Moreover, the border is open and extensive, and there are refugees who cross without being registered.
Refugees from Nigeria
43,000 Nigerians are estimated to have fled to northern Cameroon over the past year, including 26,700 refugees registered by UNHCR (IRIN, 17/09/2014). As of September, 18,475 Nigerian refugees have been registered in the Far North region, primarily in the districts of Mayo Tsanaga (7,685), Mayo-Sava (1,966), and Logone-et-Chari (8,824). Another 1,530 refugees are in the Southwest region (UNHCR, 09/2014).
Due to cross-border movements by BH, Nigerian refugees are being encouraged by the Cameroonian Government to settle in Minawao camp, whose population has risen from 6,000 to 15,000 since August, putting a severe strain on services (UNHCR cited by IRIN 06/10/2014). Many have opted to stay in border villages, hoping to return home quickly if the violence subsides. Those living outside the camp do not receive humanitarian assistance and lack of identification is a concern. The needs among the refugees are largely WASH, health, and nutrition-related.
As of September, 1.8 million people are food insecure (OCHA, 30/09/2014).
Cameroon's Far North and North regions have the highest rates of food insecurity in the country, with 54% of households facing shortages. It is feared that more will not have enough food over the current lean season, before harvesting starts in October–November (WFP cited by IRIN, 15/08/2014).
The arrival of refugees has increased pressure on resources. There will be breaks in food supply at Minawao camp, in Far North region, by November if there is no additional funding, according to WFP.
Growing food shortages are compounded by prolonged water scarcity. The impact of the 2011–2012 drought is also still being felt, although 2013 aggregate cereal production was tentatively put at about 3.1 million metric tons, 5% up on the previous year’s output, and 10% above the average of the past five years.
In July, more than 20 million people in the Sahel (Burkina Faso, north Cameroon, Chad, the Gambia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, north Nigeria, and Senegal) were suffering from food insecurity (Donor, 24/09/2014).
Health and Nutrition
Malnutrition, malaria, and respiratory infections are the most common health problems among refugees from CAR, according to an ECHO needs assessment. A number of measles cases were also reported among recently arrived child refugees.
Cameroon's Far North, North, Adamawa, and East regions suffer chronic shortages of health workers. In the Far North region, the ratio is 0.47 doctors for 1,000 people (IRIN, 06/08/2014). The concentration of health staff in wealthier areas leaves around 40% of Cameroonians without access to healthcare. 45.7% of health centres do not have access to electricity and 70% do not have piped water (Inter Press Service, 19/08/2014).
Families often use unauthorised clinics. The Ministry of Public Health has started a campaign to ensure the creation of legally registered clinics that meet national standards with regard to staff, equipment, and hygiene. The Ministry said it would close down unregistered clinics.
A cholera outbreak in Sadje health centre in northern Cameroon has been aggravated by rains and insecurity caused by Boko Haram (UNICEF, 08/2014 and 09/2014). As of late September, 2,176 cases and 113 deaths (case fatality rate: 5.2%) have been recorded since the beginning of the year. Only 22 cases were reported within the same period in 2013 (UNICEF, 09/2014).
The first cholera case was in a Nigerian refugee family in April. Water scarcity, poor public health services and risky hygiene practices have rekindled the disease, which hit Cameroon badly between 2009 and 2011 (IRIN, 06/08/2014).
A Cameroonian government spokesperson announced that all borders between Cameroon and Nigeria had been closed in order to prevent the spread of Ebola (AFP, 19/08/2014).
As of September, there were 63,000 cases of severe acute malnutrition among children under five in 2014 (OCHA, 30/09/2014). In August, there were 48,780 children under five suffering from SAM were in Far North, North, Adamawa, and East regions and targeted for assistance. This includes new refugees from CAR and Nigeria (UNICEF, 08/2014).
A nutrition assessment conducted by WFP and UNHCR in June found high rates of malnutrition among refugee children. Between March and early July, more than 1,600 children with severe acute malnutrition were admitted to therapeutic feeding centres at arrival points and refugee sites and hospitals. Another 9,000 children and 2,000 mothers received supplementary feeding (UNICEF and WFP, 03/07/2014). In one village, GAM was 25% (the emergency threshold is 15%).
As of June, up to 30% of refugees from CAR under the age of five were suffering from acute malnutrition (UNHCR, UNICEF, WFP): 7–8% of cases were infants under six months and 18% children over five years.
Approximately 15% of all children with SAM require hospitalisation. It is estimated that inpatient facilities will need to triple their capacity. Mortality rates were over 20% at some locations in June, due to dehydration, hypothermia, and severe anaemia (OCHA, 06/2014).
According to ECHO, an estimated 186,000 children, including refugee children, are expected to require lifesaving care in 2014.
An epidemic of wild poliovirus centred in Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea is spreading in the region. Since the onset of the outbreak in October 2013, nine cases have been confirmed in Cameroon (UNICEF, 11/09/2014). On 17 March, WHO elevated the risk assessment of international spread of polio from central Africa, particularly Cameroon, to very high. Wild polio had not been reported since 2009.
Several cases of yellow fever were reported in an area previously considered at low risk, and therefore not covered by the preventive campaign of 2009 (WHO, 04/07/2014).
Regions affected by the CAR refugee crisis have low access to potable water (East: 54% and Adamawa: 70%) and basic sanitation (East: 22% and Adamawa: 64%).
Thousands of students and teachers have deserted schools in towns along the border with Nigeria's Borno state as the new academic year begins. With some schools either destroyed or occupied by BH, the Government said it will relocate populations to more secure areas (Voice of America, 08/09/2014).
Over 36,000 child refugees have arrived from CAR since January: approximately 50% have not attended school for extended periods of time. Only a small number of CAR refugee children reportedly attend public schools in host communities (UNHCR, 07/2014).
On 3 April, Cameroonian police reported that an estimated 200 young people (aged 15–19) from Kolofata area in the Far North region have been recruited by Boko Haram since February and reportedly transferred to training camps in the Nigerian bush. Early August, police sources confirmed that hundreds of children continued to be forcibly recruited (AFP, 06/08/2014).
30 September: The drought caused total or partial losses of primera crops across the country and failure of primera staple grain crops in eastern and western parts of the country. Food reserves are said to be exhausted, and year-end prices will remain high (FEWSNET).
- An estimated 400,000 individuals have been affected by drought and 25,000 face critical conditions of food insecurity (ACT Alliance)
Humanitarian Context and Needs
An estimated 400,000 people have been affected by drought (ACT Alliance, 29/08/2014). The drought has affected 65% of agricultural land (FAO; 19/09/2014), and 105 municipalities in 12 departments (La Prensa Grafica, 12/09/2014). As of 12 September, 103,500 farmers have been directly affected, according to a Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock evaluation (FEWSNET, 30/09/2014). The worst damage has been recorded in the eastern region, namely Usulutan, San Miguel, Morazan, and La Union, which cultivates 30% of the country’s maize production (FAO, 19/09/2014).
Farmers have estimated that around USD 100 million will be needed to recover from the losses and restore the land damaged by drought (OCHA, 01/09/2014).
Rains have improved since mid-August, but dryness from poor primera season rains lingers (FEWSNET, 12/09/2014).
Small-scale coffee and bean farmers will be under Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security conditions from October to December in eastern and western parts of the country (FEWSNET, 30/09/2014).
Agriculture and Markets
The drought has caused total or partial losses of primera crops across the country and failure of primera staple grain crops in eastern and western areas. Up to 30% of the annual maize harvest and 90% of the total bean crop have been lost (EU, 20/08/2014). Food reserves are said to be exhausted, and year-end prices will remain high (FEWSNET, 30/09/2014).
Compounding the impact of the drought, nearly three-quarters of coffee trees are infected with leaf rust, threatening livelihood security for small-coffee producers (Save the Children, 29/09/2014).
Prices for basic grains have spiked, and unemployment has further hampered the food security situation (FEWSNET, 31/08/20147). An estimated 100,000 farmers who directly depend on coffee for their livelihood have lost their jobs this year (Money News, 11/09/2014).
Health and Nutrition
In mid-September, the Ministry of Health stated that the country remains on national alert due to chikungunya and dengue epidemics. The alert was first declared on 25 June (The Tico Times, 15/09/2014).
As of 12 September, 16,389 suspected cases of chikungunya have been recorded since the end of May; 54 cases have been confirmed (PAHO, 12/09/2014).
As of 7 October, 41,968 suspected dengue cases have been reported, including 12,928 confirmed cases and 360 of severe haemorrhagic dengue in 2014 (PAHO, 07/10/2014).
Ethiopia Country Analysis
9 October: The Baro River continues to flood, forcing refugees to settle in different locations near Nyinyang and along the Nip Nip and Jikaw corridor and Gambella–Matar road (UNHCR).
6 October: 157,570 refugees need to be relocated to new camps. Refugees are refusing to go to Okugo, citing security concerns (WFP, UNHCR).
6 October: In the Somali region, seven out of nine zones are reportedly suffering from water shortages, causing people and livestock to migrate in search of water and pasture (OCHA).
- Armed insurgencies continue to affect Ogaden region, with inter-communal tensions contributing to frequent violence.
- There are 635,956 refugees, mainly from Kenya and South Sudan (UNCHR). Over 250,000 South Sudanese refugees are in Gambella region; 90% are women and children, 68% children under 18 (OCHA).
- 2.4 million people need food assistance. The most affected regions are Oromia, Somali, Amhara, Tigray and Afar (FAO).
- A majority of the refugee camps have reached, or are reaching, full capacity. Main concerns include the building of a new refugee camp, malnutrition among refugees, as well as critical shortfalls in humanitarian aid.
Ethiopia is considered comparatively stable, but deep clan tensions and intra-communal violence persist. Two decades of deadly conflict in the southeastern region of Ogaden have had a severe impact on the Ethiopian Somali population, especially after years of a relatively successful government counter-insurgency campaign. The Government has yet to address the root causes of the violence.
However, weak political opposition, the perspective of a new peace process between the Government and separatist groups, and the Government’s determination to accelerate economic growth all make continued stability likely.
Protests against projects to expand the boundaries of Addis Ababa into lands currently hosting the Oromo community, which has reportedly been marginalised by successive Governments, began on 25 April. In May, dozens of people were reported killed in violence across the region, according to local sources.
In September, Amnesty International reported violations of civil and political rights. Elections are schedule for May 2015 (Amnesty International, 22/09/2014). Four opposition party members were arrested in July for alleged connections with terrorist organisations (Crisis Watch, 01/08/2014).
Participation in Regional Military Operations
Ethiopia has historically been a key player in peacekeeping and counter-terrorism operations in East Africa. Peace talks on the South Sudan conflict, under the mediation of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, are taking place in Addis Ababa. In 2014, Addis also hosted peace talks over conflict in Sudan.
In January 2014, according to official reports, the Government pledged that Ethiopian troops, currently part of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) would remain in Somalia until durable peace and security is achieved. The Somali militant group Al Shabaab has repeatedly threatened Ethiopia since Ethiopian troops arrived in Somalia. On 13 October 2013, a bomb blast killed two people in Addis Ababa. There was no immediate claim of responsibility.
Humanitarian Context and Needs
The start of the rainy season is posing access problems as many areas are flooded, including refugee camps and Burubiey entry point, which is now closed (UNICEF 15/07/2014). Helicopter drops have proved difficult due to poor weather conditions. Floods have also submerged the entire area designated for helicopter landing in Nip Nip (UNHCR, 25/09/2014). By 2 October, only 50km of the road from Gambella to Leitchuor was accessible, and the rest was completely under water. This has cancelled any possibility of pumping out the water or opening new bypass roads (IOM, 02/10/2014). All humanitarian interventions in Leitchuor and Nip Nip have continued to be affected (WFP, 06-10/10/2014).
Security conditions have made some camps in Benishangul‐Gumuz inaccessible (IOM, 09/09/2014).
Heavy rains have flooded 95% of Leitchuor and most of Nip Nip IDP camps (UNICEF, 15/08/2014). Flooding has affected the border crossings at Matar and Pagak. 171,733 refugees have been evacuated from Gambella and 2,439 from Benishangul-Gumuz (IOM, 21/09/2014).
As of 9 October, the Baro River continues to flood. The rain has destroyed homes, temporary structures, as well as latrines and sanitation facilities (UNHCR, 03/09/2014). The ground within the camp has not yet dried and refugees have settled in different locations near Nyinyang and along the Nip Nip and Jikaw corridor and Gambella–Matar road (UNHCR, 09/10/2014).
As of 31 March, Ethiopia had 328,080 IDPs (OCHA, 11/06/2014).
Refugees in Ethiopia
As of 23 September, Ethiopia hosts up to 635,956 refugees from 13 countries, but mainly Somalis, South Sudanese, Eritreans, and Sudanese (IOM, 23/09/2014). Ethiopia is now the largest refugee-hosting country in Africa (UNHCR, 19/08/2014).
Northern Ethiopia continues to receive Eritrean refugees, including unaccompanied minors. The first week of September saw an increase in arrivals with 429 people registered, compared to 293 the week before (OCHA, 15/09/2014).
South Sudanese Refugees
As of 25 September, 191,400 South Sudanese have sought asylum in Ethiopia since December 2013 (OCHA, 25/09/2014). The majority of arrivals come from Upper Nile state and are predominantly from Gajaak, Gajiok, and Luo-Nuer tribes (UNHCR, 03/07/2014). They are arriving through Pagak (50%), Akobo (21%), Burubiey (24%), Matar, Raad, Pugnido and Wanke entry points (UNHCR, 25/07/2014). 46,362 South Sudanese refugees were in Ethiopia before 2013. 90% are women and children, and almost 68% are under 18 years old, and arrive in critical nutritional conditions (WFP, UNICEF, 15/08/2014). Most new arrivals cite insecurity and poor food security as their main reason for flight (UNICEF, 15/08/2014).
The number of South Sudanese refugees crossing the border into Ethiopia has seen a sharp decline, from an average of 2,000 per day in May to 92 in the first week of October (WFP, 10/10/2014). 1,411 refugees arrived in September (UNHCR, 01/10/2014).
According to UNHCR, as of 25 September, 157,570 individuals need to be relocated to other camps due to flooding (WFP, 06/10/2014). Leitchuor, Nip Nip, and Matar way station have been dismantled due to the continued risk of flooding. The refugees will be relocated to Okugo district in October, at the end of the rainy season, according to the government refugee agency (OCHA, 15/09/2014). A transit centre has been constructed at Geder around Macha (IOM, 02/10/2014). However, Okugo can only absorb 29,000 refugees in addition to the current population of 6,000. Refugees are rejecting the relocation proposals, citing insecurity as their main concern, including attacks by the South Sudanese armed forces from nearby border areas ((IOM, 23/09/2014; UNHCR, 01/10/2014).
Ethiopian Refugees in Neighbouring Countries
As of 1 July, there are 30,343 Ethiopian refugees in Kenya (10/07/2014, UNHCR).
An estimated 6,820 Ethiopians made their way to Yemen in May, slightly fewer than the 6,865 who arrived in April, and a 31% increase on the number who arrived in May 2013. New arrivals came predominantly from Oromia, Tigray, Amhara, Harar, and Ogaden regions, for economic reasons and risk of persecution. New arrivals in Yemen have reported cases of arbitrary detention and torture as a result of perceived affiliation to the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), and repression premised on political affiliation in light of the general elections scheduled for 2015 (RMMS, 31/05/2014).
The food security situation wass deteriorating in September, with part of the northeast, pockets of central Ethiopia, and the southern and southeastern pastoralist areas the most affected (OCHA, 22/09/2014). Insufficient rainfall is exacerbating food insecurity in eastern parts of the country as well (USAID, 30/09/2014). Poor households in the highlands of the Arsi zone in central Oromia have moved into Crisis conditions (IPC Phase 3). Southern and southeastern pastoral areas and poor households in most areas are Stressed (IPC Phase 2), but only thanks to humanitarian assistance (FEWSNET 12/08/2014). Critical water shortages are persisting despite ongoing karan rains in parts of the Somali region. In more drought-prone areas, like Afar and Oromia, critical water shortage also exists.
With a much below-average meher harvest in the Rift Valley in central Oromia, Waghimra Zone in Amhara and Tigray, households will quickly deplete their food stocks, likely becoming more food insecure after December (FEWSNET, 26/09/2014). Similarly, the expected deyr rains will improve water and pasture availability for pastoralist communities (OCHA, 22/09/2014). Despite karan rains, pasture has not fully recovered in most northern pastoral areas (FEWSNET, 26/09/2014).
On 26 February, an estimated 2.7 million people were food insecure (FEWSNET). This is a 12% increase compared to the first half of 2013. The most affected regions are Oromia (897,000 people in need of humanitarian assistance), Somali (690,970), Amhara (548,000), Tigray (321,400), and Afar (152,600).
Agriculture and Markets
An early stop of Mar-May seasonal rainfall and a particularly dry July has led to further deterioration of crops and degraded pasture conditions across central and northern areas (FEWSNET 03/09/2014).
In July, the year-to-year general inflation rate increased to 6.9%; food inflation to 5.8% and non-food to 8.2%. The terms of trade between shoat and staple cereals has deteriorated for producers and consumers in most areas of the Somali region and Diredawa markets (WFP, 31/07/2014).
Health and Nutrition
Malaria remains the main public health concern in all the refugee camps, followed by respiratory tract infections and diarrhoeal diseases (OCHA 01/09/2014). A survey carried out among South Sudanese refugees residing in Ethiopia indicate a serious public health emergency (OCHA 15/08/2014). Monitoring in Gambella region has shown “critical gaps” in medical personnel and supplies, as well as funds for public health clusters (OCHA, 11/08/2014).
Between late May and late August 354 cases of hepatitis E and jaundice were detected among the refugee population (MSF, 04/09/2014). Ten new cases were reported in the last week of September (UNHCR, 01/10/2014).
Cases of malaria have significantly increased in refugee camps in the past weeks due to flooding and poor use of treated bed nets (OCHA, 01/10/2014). In July, the death rate from malaria in Kule 1 camp was reported as 5.9/1,000/week, in Leitchuor 5.6/1,000/week and in Tierkidi 5/1,000/week (UNHCR 03/07/2014).
Results of a SMART survey in Leitchuor, Kule, and Tierkidi show GAM rates of 25.8%, 30.3%, and 28%, and SAM rates of 5.7%, 10%, and 7.8% respectively. Crude mortality rates in Kule 1 were 1.47/10,000/day and Leitchuor 1.03/10,000/day. Under-five mortality rates at Kule 1 were 5/10,000/day and Leitchuor 2.73/10,000/day (WFP, 15/08/2014; UNICEF, 15/07/2014).
The Government and humanitarian actors on the ground have responded to more than 200 measles outbreaks this year (OCHA, 11/08/2014). Close to 2,600 measles cases were recorded between until mid-January and May in Gambella, Amhara, Oromia, SNNP and Somali regions (OCHA, 12/05/2014).
On 17 March, according to OCHA, a new case of polio was confirmed in Somali region, bringing the caseload in Ethiopia to ten since the outbreak started in May 2013. All cases were reported in woredas that share borders with Somalia, where the regional polio outbreak started.
According to UNICEF, only 31% of Ethiopian households have access to safe water (USAID, 30/09/2014). Critical water shortages exist in Afdera, Berhale, Bidu, Dubti, Elidar, Erebti and Kori woredas (OCHA, 01/09/2014). In the Somali region, seven out of nine zones are reportedly suffering from water shortages, causing people and livestock to migrate in search of water and pasture (OCHA, 06/10/2014).
The ratio of latrines to people in refugee camps varies greatly: 1:217 in Burubiey; 1:78 in Kule 1; and 1:55 in Kule 2; 1:47 in Leitchuor; and 1:26 in Pugnido (UNHCR, 03/07/2014).
Inaccessible inter-camp roads between Kule and Nip Nip have delayed water trucking (UNHCR, 25/09/2014).
As of 14 April, according to the Education Cluster, 30,000–40,000 children were in need of emergency education intervention in Gambella region.
In mid-February, human rights NGOs reported that a government-run land clearance plan had affected an estimated 7,000 indigenous people in the lower Omo Valley in the southwest. This raises concerns over indigenous people’s livelihoods. Forced resettlement of indigenous people in the area has also been reported.
A government land development plan to allow sugar-cane plantations, dam construction, and commercial agriculture is expected to relocate 150,000 indigenous people into permanent sedentary villages.
30 September: More than 3.4 million Haitians (one-third of the population) lack access to safe water, facilitating the spread of waterborne diseases (UN).
- Despite the decreasing trend in cholera cases since January 2014, the disease remains a concern (WHO 27/06/2014). Waterborne diseases are one of the main causes of infant mortality (World Bank, 09/10/2014).
- According to national authorities, 500,000 people could be affected by disaster this year, not only by floods during the hurricane season, but also by the effect of El Niño (OCHA, 20/08/2014).
- The resilience of the population and its capacity to cope with new crises are generally weak.
- 85,430 IDPs (22,741 households) remain in 123 camps as of September as a result of the 2010 earthquake (OCHA, 04/10/2014).
An estimated three million Haitians have both chronic and acute humanitarian needs, and are facing displacement, food insecurity, and malnutrition. Haiti’s political and economic situation is extremely fragile, and the country is vulnerable to natural disasters, including hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, landslides, and droughts. The resilience of the population is extremely low.
Supporters of former President Jean-Bertrand Aristide clashed with UN peacekeepers on 14 August (ABC News, 14/08/2014). On 10 September, Aristide was placed under house arrest (AFP, 10/09/2014).
On 23 September, Prime Minister Laurent Lamothe said that elections will be held no later than early 2015, more than three years behind schedule (ABC News, 23/09/2014).
The indefinite postponement of parliamentary and local elections since 2011 has contributed to a polarised political climate. While the UN stabilisation mission, MINUSTAH, maintains police in regions, the Haitian National Police are not yet fully capable of dealing with civil unrest (OCHA, 31/07/2014).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
85,430 IDPs (22,741 households) remain in 123 camps as of September as a result of the 2010 earthquake, a 17.5% decrease on June numbers (OCHA, 04/10/2014). Delmas (38%), Port-au-Prince (27%) and Croix-des-Bouquets (10%) account for 75% of displaced households (CCCM, 08/10/2014). Port-au-Prince has the highest number of IDP sites (37% of open sites), followed by Delmas and Carrefour (IOM 07/07/2014).
Population numbers in camps have grown over the first six months of 2014, as other camps have closed, and insecurity elsewhere has grown (OHCHR, MINUSTAH & Protection Cluster, 30/06/2014).
Due to inadequate funding, an estimated 69,399 IDPs are not currently targeted by any return or relocation programmes. As of June, 8,542 displaced families in 46 camps are considered at risk of forced eviction. 56,506 people in 53 camps considered to be at particularly high risk of flooding (OCHA, 20/08/2014).
Basic services in camps have declined faster than the pace of return or relocation. The camps often now resemble slums, and it is difficult to distinguish IDPs having arrived in 2010 from prior residents, in a study of 20 camps March-April 2014 by Action against Hunger and IOM. Access to healthcare was reported to be problematic due to lacks of infrastructure and funding. The camp populations studied registered 12.5% GAM. Two-thirds of the surveyed population did not have access to latrines and less than 3% had access to improved drinking water and hygiene (OHCHR, MINUSTAH & Protection Cluster, 30/06/2014). Only one-third of IDP camps have access to water (OCHA, 31/07/2014).
As of July, 2.6 million Haitians continue to be affected by food insecurity, including 200,000 severely food insecure (OCHA, 20/08/2014).
Parts of Artibonite, Nord-Ouest, Sud-Est, and Nippes departments face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security levels. Drought in Haiti has led to a 30% loss of seasonal harvests. El Niño could also harm agricultural production over October–December and lead to 15,000 more people suffering from acute food insecurity, especially in northern departments (OCHA, 04/10/2014).
The increase in rainfall throughout Haiti during August has greatly helped to offset short-term moisture deficits due to poor seasonal rainfall this summer. However, below-average moisture conditions persist in the south (FEWSNET, 01/09/2014).
The early end of the rainy season and El Niño could further deteriorate food security conditions, particularly in the north (OCHA, 20/08/2014).
Health and Nutrition
As of October, 65,000 suspected cases of chikungunya have been reported since the May outbreak (IFRC, 10/10/2014).
As of 30 August, 8,628 suspected cases of cholera, including 69 fatalities, had been registered in 2014, a 76% decrease compared to same period in 2013. Projected numbers have been revised from 45,000 to 15,000 cases in 2014. Since October 2010, nearly 706,100 suspected cholera cases and 8,600 deaths have been reported by the Ministry of Health (UN, 30/09/2014).
So far in 2014, more than 2,000 Haitians had been affected by cholera and 13 had died in central areas (local media, 29/09/2014). Hinche, Cerca Carvajal, Cerca la Source, Thomassique and Mirebalais communes in the Centre department were placed on high alert in mid-September for cases of cholera and acute diarrhoea (Government, 06/10/2014).
Cholera incidence in camps has been higher in 2014 than 2013. 1,332 suspected cases of cholera have been registered in 102 camps since the beginning of 2014 compared to 1,054 cases reported in 73 camps during the whole of 2013 (OCHA, 20/08/2014).
100,000 children under five suffer from GAM, among whom 20,000 suffer from SAM. Ten communes have above 10% GAM (OCHA, 20/08/2014).
Malnutrition rates in IDP camps are of great concern. In the sample 20 camps surveyed in May, GAM stood at 12.5% (OCHA, 20/08/2014).
More than 3.4 million Haitians (one-third of the total population and 47% of rural population) lack access to safe water, facilitating the spread of waterborne diseases (UN, 30/09/2014). 38% do not have access to improved water sources and 69% lack access to improved sanitation (World Bank, 30/09/2014). As of June, 47–49% of camps have adequate sanitation facilities; only one-third have a water point.60% of schools in Haiti have no toilets and more than three-quarters lack access to water (HRW, 08/10/2014).
Waterborne diseases are one of the main causes of infant mortality (World Bank, 09/10/2014).
Former IDPs living in informal settlements are at high risk of eviction (OCHA, 20/08/2014). Most people who have been relocated from camps continue to live in temporary housing and dire conditions.
17% of IDPs in camps recently surveyed have not received any education (OHCHR, MINUSTAH and Protection Cluster, 30/06/2014).
The number of rapes reported in the first half of 2014 is double that of the same period in 2013. More than two-thirds of the rapes reported involved minors (OHCHR and Protection Cluster, 30/06/2014).
Gender-based violence continues to be of great concern in IDP camps, where most cases of sexual aggression are reported among women (OHCHR, MINUSTAH and Protection Cluster, 30/06/2014).
13 October: About 14,000 people from 16 communities in Valle department were affected by the Goascorán River overflowing. These communities had already been affected by drought and crop losses (La Tribuna).
- 745,000 people in the Dry Corridor are affected by food insecurity (La Prensa, 25/09/2014): Choluteca, Valle, El Paraíso, Francisco Morazán, Intibuca and Lempira departments are the most affected (EU, 20/08/2014)
Humanitarian Context and Needs
At end September, the impact of the drought was worsening in southern parts of the country as food insecurity increases in the Dry Corridor (La Prensa, 25/09/2014). The most affected departments are Choluteca, Valle, El Paraíso, Francisco Morazán, Intibuca and Lempira (EU, 20/08/2014). The Government declared a state of emergency in the Dry Corridor on 5 August (Government, 05/08/2014).
Rains have improved since mid-August, but dryness from poor primera season rains lingers (FEWSNET, 12/09/2014). The coffee leaf rust epidemic, affecting the entire Central American region, is aggravating the situation (Government of Honduras, 29/07/2014).
Since 26 September, intense rains have provoked flash flooding over Choluteca and Valle departments, in the south. As of 29 September, the north of Choluteca department is almost inaccessible due to severe damage to roads and infrastructure. 4,000 people are directly affected.
In Valle department, the communities of La Ceiba, Los Amates, El Olanchano, Valle Nuevo, Capulín, Guatales, Muruahaca, El Carrizo y El Conchal have been flooded since 26 September. 2,000 people are affected (Proceso Digital, 29/09/2014, El Heraldo, 29/09/2014).
On 5 October, flooding in Santa Barbara department, western Honduras, left people without drinkable water as water pipes were damaged. 150 people were evacuated (La Prensa, 05/10/2014; El Heraldo, 05/10/2014).
On 13 October, about 14,000 people from 16 communities in Valle department were affected by the Goascorán River overflowing. These communities had already been affected by drought and crop losses (La Tribuna, 13/10/2014).
The food security situation in Honduras has worsened due to drought, yet strong winds and rains have hit San Manuel Úlua, and the destruction of crops has affected 14,000 people (3,500 families) (REDLAC, 18/08/2014).
745,000 people in the Dry Corridor are now affected by food insecurity (La Prensa, 25/09/2014), a significant increase from 480,000 people recorded in the beginning of September (OCHA, WFP, 01/09/2014). Families with small farms have been of direct concern, namely 308,800 people who suffered partial or total loss of their livelihoods (FAO, 19/09/2014).
Well below-average 2014 primera harvests, reduced income from coffee sector employment and sales, and above-average red bean prices mean that the people affected by food insecurity in the Dry Corridor will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels of food insecurity August–December (FEWSNET, 16/09/2014). Extremely poor households will experience a rapid deterioration in their food security in early 2015, and more humanitarian assistance is expected to be needed than usual (FEWSNET 18/08/2014).
Agriculture and Markets
Recent estimates point to a 25% drop in maize production during the primera season compared to last year, and losses of over 8,000 metric tons of beans (FAO, 19/09/2014). 70% of maize crops and 45% of bean crops have been lost in drought-affected areas (La Prensa, 10/08/2014). Fish farms have been affected by the depletion of fish stocks (EU, 20/08/2014). The floods in Valle department have destroyed all apple crops in the area (Proceso Digital, 29/09/2014).
Prices for red beans have increased by 132% since June 2013 and by 68% over the last five years. Seeds losses are likely to extend to other geographical areas and high prices for basic grains are also likely (FEWSNET, 30/07/2014).
Health and Nutrition
19,200 suspected cases of dengue have been recorded so far this year, of which 1,422 severe haemorrhagic dengue. 497 cases have been confirmed (PAHO, 22/09/2014).
The drought has affected access to safe drinking water in the most affected areas (La Prensa, 10/08/2014).
3 October: Leaders from Mandera and Wajir signed an agreement seeking to end the conflict between Degodia and Garre clans (Capital News, The Star).
29 September: People displaced by conflict in Mandera and Wajir are in desperate need of safe drinking water (The Star).
1 October: 6,197 unaccompanied children have arrived in Kakuma camp since December 2013, bringing the total to 12,174 (UNHCR).
- Violence is ongoing in the capital Nairobi, as well as the northeastern and coastal areas; two-thirds of those violent attacks have been attributed to the Somali Islamist Al Shabaab movement.
- Inter-communal tensions are running high: 491 people were killed and 47,000 displaced by tribal conflict in 2013. Tana River, Mandera, Marsabit, and Moyale counties are the most affected.
- There are over 585,551 refugees in Kenya, including at least 426,500 Somalis and 87,129 South Sudanese (UNHCR 31/07/2104, 07/08/2014).
- 1.5 million people are acutely food insecure (FEWSNET).
Kenya is considered relatively stable in the Horn of Africa and held peaceful presidential elections in March 2013. However, the country remains ethnically polarised and affected by two decades of conflict in neighbouring Somalia. The implementation of a devolution process, land reform, and national reconciliation all challenge stability in a country where institutions are perceived to be weak.
President Uhuru Kenyatta announced on 6 October that he will be temporarily stepping down from office in order to attend the International Criminal Court as a civilian. He charged with crimes against humanity, stemming from 2007–08 post-election violence, where more than 1,000 people died. Depute William Ruto will act as President during his absence (AFP, BBC, 07/10/2014).
The frequency and scale of militant attacks in Kenya have increased dramatically since Kenyan troops began operating in Somalia, as has the nature of the violence, with 40% of events targeting civilians. Al Shabaab has built a cross-border presence and clandestine support network among the Muslim population in the northeast, in Nairobi, and on the coast. Kenyan troops began operating against Al Qaeda in Somalia in 2011. On 23 June, Kenyan fighter jets attacked Al Shabaab groups in Somalia, killing at least 80 (23/06/2014, BBC, AFP).
Deadly inter-communal violence remains common in a number of areas.
Tensions with Somali Communities
Since Al Shabaab’s attack on Nairobi’s Westgate shopping mall in September 2013, tensions with the Somali community have risen further. Muslims make up 11% of Kenya’s 40 million population, and the increasing radicalisation of the ethnic Somali Muslim population is allegedly fuelled by systematic ethnic profiling and discrimination.
In March, the more than 50,000 refugees living in urban areas were ordered to relocate to two camps: Dadaab and Kakuma. Three bomb blasts in the following weeks killed ten people, according to international media. Throughout April, mass arrests targeting refugees took place in Nairobi and Mombasa: 82 allegedly illegal immigrants were reportedly deported to Mogadishu. 281 refugees were reportedly transported from Nairobi’s Kasarani stadium, where hundreds of refugees had been detained, to Kakuma and Dadaab camps.
Seven attacks in Kenya’s coastal region between mid-June and July left 102 dead. Soweto in Mombasa, Mpeketoni, Poromoko, Panganguo the villages of Witu and Kibiboni, and Gamba police station were all targeted. About 500 families reportedly fled the area to nearby camps (Reuters, 06/07/2014). Leaflets were distributed demanding minorities leave Mombasa (AFP, BBC, 19-21/07/2014).
Although evidence points towards Al Shabaab involvement in these attacks, the Kenyan Government insists local political networks are to blame, flaring political and ethnic tensions in the coastal area (IRIN 23/07/2014). Lamu county governor Issa Timamy, is under investigation for terrorism and murder (BBC, 20/07/2014).
A growth in the population of both people and livestock has led to more frequent cattle raiding and violence, fed by the availability of small arms. The Ethiopian Oromo Liberation Front insurgent group is also said to have made several deadly incursions into Kenya. In 2013, 491 people were killed and 1,235 were injured in inter-communal violence. The areas most affected by inter-communal violence were the southeastern county of Tana River, the northeastern county of Mandera, and the Moyale area in Marsabit county.
Conflict in Baringo
In Baringo county, drought has pushed pastoralists to take their livestock to new locations, and violence has been reported (ACTED, 08/08/2014). Throughout September, tensions in the area have risen, after raiders shot dead four herders and stole their animals, causing some villagers to flee, limiting their access to water and basic services (Kenya Daily Nation, 24/09/2014).
Conflict in Mandera and Wajir
On 22 August, fighting resumed in Mandera county. Houses have been burned down, schools and dispensaries raided and livestock stolen. By early October, total fatalities had risen to 48, with 68 wounded and 19,000 displaced (Kenya Red Cross, 05/09/2014). On 3 October, leaders from Mandera and Wajir signed an agreement that seeks to end the conflict between the Degodia and Garre clans (Capital News, Red Star, 09/2014). But on 6 October two men from the Degodia clan were attacked by Garre (The Star, 06/10/2014). Rhamu, in Mandera north, has been raided twice. In August, a Red Cross ambulance was attacked and security personnel were unable to access some towns near the border (Kenya Red Cross, 26/08/2014; Kenya Daily Nation 24/08/2014).
Clashes between Garre and Degodia communities along the border between Wajir and Mandera counties caused at least 60 deaths and displaced 75,000 people between May and June (OCHA, 23/06/2014). The Garre and Degodia Somali clans have been feuding over natural resources since March 2012.
Humanitarian Context and Needs
According to national authorities, 300,000 famine-stricken people (60,000 families) in drought-hit Wajir South constituency need humanitarian assistance. The National Drought Management Authority said most of the water points in the northeasterm constituency had dried up due to the prolonged drought (Kenya Daily Nation, 08/09/2014)
On 31 March, the total number of IDPs in Kenya was 309,200 (OCHA, 16/06/2014).
Mandera: 18,000 were displaced in Mandera over the last week of August. At the end of July 5,574 people were displaced (ACT Alliance, 30/07/2014). At 11 June, 61,000 IDPs had been reported (Kenyan Red Cross). Although no figures have been reported, local media have reported that the number of displaced has reduced, but those who remain displaced are in dire need of safe drinking water (The Star, 23/09/2014).
Lamu: Local media reported in August that about 1,000 people displaced by the June–July Lamu attacks near the coast are in dire need of food, and are consuming untreated waters from two bore holes. Their livelihoods are also affected, since they will have no harvest this year (Kenya Daily Nation, 24/08/2014).
As of 14 October, Kenya is hosting more than 585,551 refugees and asylum-seekers (UNHCR, 14/10/2014). 178,580 are located in Kakuma, 356,879 between Dabaab and Alinjugur and 50,092 in Nairobi. Somalis make up 75% of the refugees, South Sudanese 13% (UNHCR, 30/07/2014). As of 21 September, humanitarian actors have registered a decline in the number of refugees entering the country (IOM, 21/09/2014).
From Somalia: As of July, 427,000 Somali refugees were in Kenya, a decrease of 50,000 from previous estimates (UNHCR, OCHA). Most are in the northeastern Dadaab and Alinjugur refugee camp complex, which in July hosted 340,000 Somali refugees. 55,468 Somali refugees are in Kakuma camp, Turkana, and 32,014 are in Nairobi (UNHCR, 01/07/2014).
The Tripartite Agreement between the Kenyan and Somali Governments and UNHCR, signed in November 2013, establishes the legal framework for those Somali refugees wishing to return home. About 2,500 refugees living in Dadaab camp are set to be relocated to Somalia by the end of October. This first batch of refugees will be used to test the viability of returning the 337,500 Somali refugees still registered at the camp (Kenya Daily Nation, 07/09/2014). Refugees cite insecurity and lack of opportunities to earn a living as their main uncertainties to return to Somalia. UNHCR has promised material and financial support for those deciding to return (UNHCR, East African, 02/08/2014).
From South Sudan: As of 29 September, more than 43,455 South Sudanese refugees have crossed into Kenya since mid-December, bringing the total to 87,474 (IOM, 29/09/2014). A May report indicated a daily arrival rate of 90 (UNHCR, 23/05/2014). Humanitarian agencies are reportedly expecting 100,000 South Sudanese refugees by the end of 2014 (WFP, 28/05/2014). 75,038 South Sudanese refugees are in Kakuma camp, Turkana county (UNHCR, 07/07/2014).
Kakuma camp is hosting 178,210 refugees, surpassing its capacity of 150,000 (UNHCR, 17/09/2014). Flooding from heavy rains on 25 August and 3 September has caused further displacement, and hampered access by humanitarian actors (OCHA, 27/08/2014; UNHCR, 17/09/2014). The need for land is critical. Regular relocations from the reception centre have stalled as a result of the rains, and the need for dry, safe areas is urgent (UNHCR, 17/09/2014). Government officials have authorised the construction of a new camp nearby, although as of 11 July, no land had been granted to settle new arrivals (UNHCR, 11/07/2014).
As of 19 August, 1.5 million are in need of food aid, in a survey carried out by national and county governments (FEWSNET, 27/08/2014). These households are concentrated in pastoral areas of Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera, Samburu, Isiolo, and Baringo (FEWSNET, 26/08/2014). August reports indicated that some areas of East Pokot subcounty are facing a severe drought, and food is either unavailable or inaccessible (ACTED, 08/08/2014).
Households in parts of Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera, Samburu, Wajir, Baringo and West Pokot are entering Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity. The food security situation in Mandera and Wajir is deteriorating, with the recent drought further weakening the situation. The biggest challenge is water scarcity (Kenya Red Cross, 05/09/2014). Schools have been forced to shut down in Basuba Ward, in East Lamu, because students have joined their parents in search of food (Kenya Daily Nation, 06/10/2014).
Agriculture and Markets
Poor rains have affected pasture and water availability in most pastoral and agro-pastoral areas (GIEWS, 19/09/2014).
Maize lethal necrosis disease has damaged more than 260,000 hectares of crops in the Rift Valley and 10,000 hectares in Nakuru (Kenya Daily Nation, 06/09/2014, 21/09/2014). Small-scale farmers are most affected, who depend on the crops for food and livelihood, forcing some to revert to negative coping mechanisms (Kenya Daily Nation, 30/09/2014).
On 13 August, due to the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, the Ministry of Health and WHO have reported that Kenya is a Category 2 country, at high risk of transmission because of movement of people between affected countries or because they are near the affected countries. Kenya has blocked all flights coming from Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Nigeria (WHO 13/08/2014).
In August, GAM of up to 28.7% was reported in Turkana Central, 27.3% in Mandera North, and 29.2% Marsabit North/Loinyangalani (Kenya Red Cross 16/08/2014). GAM rates in East Pokot subcounty (Baringo) have reached 21.1% due to severe drought and inconsistent rains (ACTED, 08/08/2014).
SAM rates among South Sudanese refugees arriving in Kakuma between 13 and 20 September were at 16%, up from 10% in May. GAM was at 28%, up from 16.3% in May (UNHCR, 23/05/2014, 24/09/2014). Statistics show that malnutrition rates are higher among the most recent arrivals from South Sudan (UNHCR, 11/07/2014).
There is a critical need for clean water nationwide. Households are currently having to walk long distances to access water, much of which does not meet health standards. Since water sources are being shared with animals, the risk of waterborne diseases is much higher (ACTED, 08/08/2014).
Heavy rains on 25 August and 3 September caused pit latrines to collapse in Kakuma camp, overflowing and affecting about 400 latrines (UNHCR, 17/09/2014). The per capita distribution of water is at 16/L/p/d against UNHCR standards of 20L/p/d (UNHCR, 01/10/2014).
South Sudanese refugees face high levels of insecurity on their journey to Kenya: three were killed on their way to the border in mid-July (IOM, 20/07/2014).
Since December 2013, 6,197 unaccompanied children have arrived in Kakuma camp, bringing the total to 12,174 (UNHCR, 01/10/2014).
No significant developments this week, 14/10/2014. Last update: 06/10/2014.
- 1,125,122 Syrians are registered as refugees in Lebanon and 17,000 are awaiting registration, as of 9 October. More than 78% are women and children (53% children) (UNHCR 01/07/2014). Over 53,000 Palestinian refugees from Syria have been recorded by UNRWA.
- 77% of refugee children are under the age of 11 and 25% are at risk; 16% of refugees are aged 15–24 (UNHCR 06/2014, UNFPA 06/08/2014)
- Shelter is a critical problem: as of 1 September, 1,392 informal settlements house 186,243 refugees (UNHCR).
- Vulnerability has increased since late 2013: UN mapping indicates 242 most vulnerable localities, where 68% of Lebanese reside on less than USD 4 per day with 86% of registered Syrian refugees.
Lebanon has the highest per capita concentration of refugees worldwide. While the country struggles to deal with the refugee influx, which exceeds a quarter of the Lebanese population, tensions between host and refugee populations are increasing due to pressure on health and education systems, housing, employment, and food price hikes. The World Bank estimates that the Syria crisis cost Lebanon USD 2.5 billion in lost economic activity during 2013 and threatens to push 170,000 Lebanese into poverty by the end of 2014.
National Political Context
Lawmakers have failed to convene and elect a new president for lack of a quorum. Former president Michel Sleiman’s term expired on 25 May. March 8 bloc lawmakers, which include Hezbollah, have boycotted numerous rounds of voting, arguing that the sessions are futile until rival groups agree on a consensus candidate.
A new Government was formed in February after ten months of political stalemate. The new Government brings together the Hezbollah movement and its allies, and the Future Movement bloc, who back opposing sides in the Syria war. Neither side has veto power over the other.
Security forces have reported that extremist militants plan to increase activities in Lebanon’s north, south, and the Bekaa valley (Daily Star/UNFPA 08/10/2014).
A roadside bomb targeting the Israeli army’s Rowaisat al Alam outpost in the disputed Shebaa Farms wounded two Israeli soldiers on 7 October. Hezbollah claimed responsibility. Israel responded by launching 23 shells near the Shebaa hills, according to a Lebanese Army statement (Daily Star)
On 24 September, armed fighters opened fire at army posts in Tripoli (Daily Star 25/09/2014).
On 21 September suicide car bomber reportedly killed three people at a Hezbollah checkpoint in the Bekaa Valley, 5km from the Syria border near the town of Khreibeh (Al Jazeera 21/09/2014). On 19 September, two Lebanese soldiers were killed by a roadside bomb near Arsal.
Heavy fighting took place between the Lebanese army and armed groups in Arsal in the first week of August, with renewed fighting on 27 August, as well as reports of air raids along the border.
IS and Al Nusra Front are believed to be holding about 15 Lebanese soldiers and 15 other members of the security forces. Three kidnapped soldiers have been killed. IS has asked for the release of Islamists detained in Ruomieh prison, while Al Nusra Front are demanding protection for Syrian refugees and the opening of a safe passage for civilians into and out of Arsal. On 24 September, Lebanon’s interior minister said for the first time that the Government was not opposed to a prisoner swap (Daily Star 24/09/2014, Al Jazeera 21/09/2014).
Refugee–Host Community Violence
On 25 September, Lebanese troops raided a Syrian refugee camp in Arsal, with the army saying unknown assailants had set fire to several tents Local residents disputed the army's story, saying troops set fire to the camp (AFP 25/09/2014).
Recent months have seen an increase in acts targeting Syrian refugees (UNHCR 26/09/2014). Human Rights Watch has documented 11 violent attacks in August and September against unarmed Syrians or those perceived to be Syrian by private Lebanese citizens. In at least four cases, witnesses reported that the attacks took place in full view of Lebanese security forces, who did not intervene (HRW, 30/09/2014).
The armed clashes in Arsal in early August have had an important impact on social cohesion, particularly in the Bekaa (AFP 09/09/2014). In addition to a rise in evictions, incidents, and restrictive measures imposed on refugees, local NGOs and partners are reporting increasing opposition from local institutions and communities to the international response and assistance (UNHCR 26/09/2014).
86% of Syrian refugees are living in Lebanon’s 242 most vulnerable locations. Competition for scarce income-generating opportunities, more expensive goods and services, and less affordable accommodation, are all creating tension (REACH 05/08/2014).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
The UN estimates that Lebanon will need USD 1.6 billion in funding to cope with the humanitarian situation this year; as of 9 August, only 36% has been raised (UNHCR 03/07/2014, 10/9/2014)
Access to refugees in Arsal has been constrained since August, preventing WFP from distributing e-cards and food parcels to new arrivals (WFP 03/10/2014). Insecurity in parts of Bekaa, especially North Bekaa, where many refugees are living, has at times challenged humanitarian access (OCHA 28/08/2014). In Southern Lebanon, access and movement have at times been affected by the security measures implemented by local authorities, communities, and other groups (OCHA 28/08/2014).
Refugees live in 1,700 different locations in Lebanon, making the delivery of humanitarian assistance challenging (UNHCR 13/09/2014).
1,125,122 Syrians are registered as refugees in Lebanon and 17,000 are awaiting registration, as of 9 October. 78% are women and children. The number of Syrians in Lebanon who are not registered with UNHCR is unknown. Bekaa is hosting the largest number of refugees.
Reported raids by the Lebanese Armed Forces in search of suspected terrorists in Arsal on 25 September caused small-scale movements of refugees to the Bekaa area. Further displacements could follow (WFP 03/10/2014).
More than half of refugees coming to Lebanon have moved at least once before crossing the border; one in ten have moved more than three times (UNHCR 01/09/2014).
Palestinian refugees from Syria: An August assessment indicates the presence of 42,000 Palestinian refugees from Syria (PRS) in Lebanon (UNRWA cited by OCHA 01/09/2014).
Iraqi Refugees: Lebanon hosts nearly 7,500 registered Iraqi refugees and a further 1,200 are awaiting registration (USAID 19/09/2014).
An IOM survey of Lebanese returnees from Syria indicated that 13% have specific needs such as injury, serious medical conditions, or disability. 27% live in single-room structures, warehouses, garages, or unfinished buildings; 4% live in informal settlements and collective shelters; 4% are classified as homeless. Half of those surveyed had experienced lack of food or money to buy food within the last 30 days (OCHA 01/09/2014).
All 446 host communities surveyed in August perceived access to water, waste water management systems, affordable housing, and employment opportunities as insufficient or inadequate. Conditions in more developed urban locations are better than in rural communities. In Akkar, surveyed communities’ main concerns were inadequate access to water, wastewater management, and electricity. In Bekaa, health services and livelihoods were additional concerns. Water supply and availability of affordable housing were high priorities in Mount Lebanon and Beirut. In Tripoli governorate, water, wastewater management, and affordable housing topped the list of priorities, along with livelihoods. In southern Lebanon, communities also mentioned the lack of electricity (OCHA 01/09/2014).
Current funding shortfalls are forcing WFP to reduce the October voucher value from USD 30 to USD 20, affecting 918,792 people (WFP 03/10/2014). Food parcels for new arrivals and vouchers for Palestinian refugees will be discontinued (WFP 18/09/2014).
Monitoring in August indicates that 27% of new Syrian refugees have poor to borderline food consumption scores (UNHCR 14/08/2014).
As of August, almost 13% of households were classified as moderately or severely food insecure. Nearly 68% of households reported having reduced the number of meals (VASyR 10/08/2014).
Agriculture and Markets
Aggregate cereal consumption has increased from 0.9 million metric tons a year (2004–2008) to 1.2 million, but national grain production has remained stagnant at just under 200,000 metric tons over the past decade (WFP 07/08/2014)..
A severe drought has resulted in a substantial decline in agricultural production throughout the country. The most affected products are fruits and vegetables, for which prices have increased (Inter Press Service 23/07/2014).
77% of refugee households were found to rely on non-agricultural casual labour and debts or loans. Approximately 80% of households borrowed money or received credit and/or money to buy food (VASyR 10/08/2014). In assessments carried out between January and March, 68% of refugee households reported that WFP vouchers were their main source of income (WFP 07/09/2014). 28% of Syrian refugee households resorted to emergency coping strategies in 2014, up from 22% in 2013, according to preliminary results of the 2014 VASyR.
UNHCR reports that newcomers arriving in 2014 are in general more vulnerable, having spent their savings and assets while in Syria and finding conditions more difficult on arrival: 39% of refugees surveyed in July were unemployed for over 12 months in Syria before fleeing to Lebanon; 65% stated their standard of living in Lebanon were worse than in Syria (UNHCR 13/09/2014).
Unemployment in border areas hosting Syrian refugees has doubled since the refugee influx (Reuters 03/07/2014). Most working Syrians endure harsh conditions, and the average monthly income for a Syrian refugee in Lebanon is almost 40% less than the national minimum wage (ILO).
Palestinian refugees from Syria: More than 37% of PRS have reported cash and food aid as their main source of income (UNRWA, 03/2014). The majority of employed PRS cannot rely on wages to ensure a decent standard of living. Only 11% of PRS households were able to rely on previous saving and remittances.
Health and Nutrition
An estimated 12.1% of refugees surveyed 18–25 July needed health services in the month before the survey. Difficulties reported in accessing antenatal care include not being able to afford cost of care (84.2%), and transportation (26.9%) (UNHCR 01/10/2014). 56.1% of people with chronic conditions were unable to access care, because they were unable to afford fees (78.9%), faced a long wait at the clinic (13.3%), or did not know where to go (11.6%) (UNHCR 01/10/2014).
72% of primary health centres assessed by UNICEF lack sufficient essential drugs, 67% lack sufficient medication for chronic diseases, and 49% lack sufficient antibiotics for children (UNICEF 22/08/2014).
Palestinian refugees from Syria: Almost 75% of PRS children aged between six months and five years were sick in the two weeks prior to an UNRWA survey in March. 42% of surveyed households had at least one member who required hospitalisation. Households living outside the refugee camps access UNRWA’s health services less frequently than households in the camps (UNRWA, 03/2014).
Around 300,000 displaced Syrians are estimated to be most vulnerable to mental health concerns, 60% are women and children (WHO 16/07/2014).
Further displacements of refugees mean WASH services are needed in new locations. In some areas, especially in north Bekaa, the security situation is significant delaying the provision of assistance (UNHCR 26/09/2014). WASH conditions are worse for Syrian refugees living in informal settlements, and for Syrian refugees in difficult-to-access locations in the Bekaa Valley and the north. 26,000 PRS are also considered to be among those most in need of WASH assistance (UNHCR 01/07/2014).
Demand for water has increased 7% due to the refugee influx (UNHCR 01/07/2014). 33% of refugee households do not have drinking water, compared to 28% in 2013 (VASyR 10/08/2014). An estimated 55.4% of households reported storing water in containers at home compared to 33.1% in September 2013. Storing water for consumption can increase the risk of infectious disease transmission (UNHCR 01/10/2014).
Approximately 12% of households (twice the percentage in 2013) do not have access to a place for washing/bathing, and of those who had access, over 7% were sharing bathrooms and latrines with 15 people or more (VASyR 10/08/2014).
In Arsal, 544 latrines in informal settlements and communal shelters were destroyed during recent fighting, as was 623,000 litres of water storage capacity in informal settlements (UNHCR 19/08/2014).
2014 is likely to be the driest year in 100 years. Average rainfall in 2014 is estimated at 470mm, far below annual averages of 824mm, according to the Rafik Hariri International Airport Meteorological Department (Inter Press Service 23/07/2014).
Waste management: Waste management remains poor in most places where refugees live, and municipalities do not have the capacity to collect. Diminishing funding reduced waste management activities in Bekaa and the north (UNHCR 26/09/2014).
Over 60% of Syrian refugees live in the north or the Bekaa Valley, where winter conditions are more severe than in the rest of the country. Also, over 40% of refugees live in sub-standard accommodation, and are especially vulnerable to cold temperatures. Challenges for the winter response mainly centre on the fact that refugees are scattered across 1,700 locations (SNAP 03/10/2014).
Shelter is the primary reason for widespread secondary displacement (MSNA 05/2014). Housing is the most serious concern for most refugees both in terms of quality and monthly cost (UN Habitat 09/08/2014, VASyR 10/08/2014).
41% of refugees live in tents, collective shelters, unfinished constructions, and garages; 14% live in tented settlements. Only 10% of registered Syrian refugees possess a written rental agreement. The Government agreed on 11 September to establish camps along the Syria–Lebanon border to accommodate approximately 20,000 Syrians (UNHCR 19/09/2014).
As of 1 September, 1,392 informal settlements house 186,243 refugees. In June 2012, there were 282 informal settlements (UNHCR 03/09/2014, UNHCR 27/07/2014). Akkar has over 300 settlements of four or more tents, and the Bekaa 700. The multi-sectoral assessment of informal settlements in Bekaa indicates congestion, poor drainage, and great need for repairs.
Arsal: According to initial assessments, the shelters of 822 Syrian families in 14 informal settlements and seven families from a collective shelter were affected by fighting in August (UNHCR 21/08/2014). General rehabilitation of damaged shelters in informal settlements, and especially in residential areas, was not advised by the municipality as the delivery of shelter materials could aggravate social tensions (UNHCR 26/08/2014).
Palestinian refugees from Syria: An assessment of all 42 unofficial Palestinian communities in Lebanon, or ‘gatherings’, found the population to have increased from 110,000 to 140,000 since 2011: 26,000 are Palestinian refugees from Syria. Pressure on already inadequate basic services has increased. Shelter needs are a priority, with many housing units in need of intervention (OCHA 01/09/2014).
PRS households are residing in alarmingly crowded dwellings, with an average of 4.6 persons per bedroom; 8.4 people on average share one bathroom. Most households (71%) reported paying rent for shelter. Slightly over a quarter of households (27%) were hosted free of charge.
Lebanese returnees: Some 50,000 Lebanese nationals are expected to return from Syria by the end of 2014, with the majority obliged to rent or live with host families. At least 51% are shelter insecure and require assistance to cover rental costs or shelter repair (UNHCR 01/07/2014).
Based on registration data at the end of August, 502,500 Syrian, 21,000 Palestinian, 7,000 Lebanese returnees, and 40,000 vulnerable Lebanese children were in need of education services. Approximately 351,500 children between the ages of 3 and 18 have not accessed any learning opportunities. The biggest barrier to schooling is the lack of space in public schools, with other obstacles including the cost of transportation and the cost of tuition fees. Language barriers and safety concerns contribute to a high drop-out rate among refugee children (UNHCR 26/09/2014).
Palestinian refugees from Syria: School enrolment rates have doubled since the last academic year, to 64%. Most PRS children are enrolled in UNRWA schools. Enrolment rates are lower for PRS living outside camps, and decrease as children grow older (even within the same household): children aged 13 years and older are facing difficulties adjusting to UNRWA’s Lebanese curriculum, taught in English or French.
Between 19 and 24 September, more than 200 Syrian refugees, including minors, were arrested in Arsal by the Lebanese army. There were also reports that the army evicted a large number of refugees from private homes. On 25 September the Lebanese army launched a crackdown in the area of Ras al Jafar. More than 30% of the refugees left the area for Syria or areas within Lebanon. More than 20 informal settlements received eviction orders Preliminary estimates indicate 40 communities are threatened with eviction, bringing the number of refugees affected by army operations in the region to around 12,000. Serious violations were committed by members of the Lebanese army against detained refugees (Al Akhbar 11/10/2014, UNFPA 08/10/2014).
53.4% of the Syrian refugee population are children and 32% of registered families are headed by women. Over 38% of households include at least one person with specific needs (UNHCR 26/09/2014).
Restrictions on freedom of movement due to security checkpoints, curfews, and lack of identification expose refugees to many vulnerabilities (UNHCR 13/09/2014). Human Rights Watch reported that at least 45 Lebanese municipalities have imposed curfews on Syrian refugees since the August Arsal clashes. Such curfews violate international human rights law and appear to be illegal under Lebanese law (HRW 03/10/2014).
Only Syrians with valid and undamaged identification cards or passports can enter Lebanon. While most Syrians are granted access, there is a reported increase in arrests and detentions of Syrians for illegal entry and stay (UNHCR). An average of 13% of registered refugees have entered through unofficial border crossings and are not able to pay the prohibitive regularisation fees. Many of those who have entered through official crossings have difficulties meeting the residency renewal fees (UNHCR 13/09/2014).
On 31 May, Lebanon’s Interior Minister announced that displaced Syrians registered with UNHCR must refrain from entering Syria from 1 June, or they will lose their status as refugees in Lebanon.
Since May, PRS entry to Lebanon has been almost entirely limited to those transiting to a third country. The restrictions on entry and visa renewal mean that an increasing number of PRS remain in Lebanon without legal stay. They face an array of protection concerns, including limits on their freedom of movement and ability to complete essential civil registration procedures such as birth registration (OCHA 01/09/2014).
Statelessness: Stateless refugees in Lebanon include Syrian Kurds who were denaturalised in Syria in 1962. Between March 2011 and July 2014, 31,879 Syrian refugees have been born in Lebanon and, according to a January survey, 72% do not possess an official birth certificate (UNHCR 13/09/2014).
Mines and ERW
Lebanon has nearly 1,400 confirmed minefields and 520 cluster munitions strike areas, including in areas hosting refugees. In March, refugees were living within 10–20m of known minefields in West Bekka and Rashaya (Mine Action Group).
Unaccompanied girls and adolescents, single heads of households, child mothers and spouses, and women and girls living with disabilities are among the most at risk of SGBV. 25% of survivors of reported SGBV cases are under 18 years of age (UNHCR 13/09/2014).
Scarce economic opportunities coupled with high costs of living lead some families to negative coping mechanisms including early marriage, child labour, survival sex. Refugee women in Lebanon report that fear of sexual harassment and exploitation has restricted their mobility (UNFPA 13/08/2014).
A weak legal framework, limited resources, and social barriers prevent refugees at risk of SGBV, or victims, from seeking and receiving adequate protection. Other challenges include lack of documentation, overcrowding, and growing tension between refugees and host communities.
There are no official statistics on child marriage, which exists in some areas; but the rate has risen with the influx of Syrian refugees, according to a UNICEF child protection expert (AFP 28/08/2014).
Child labour is reported to be increasing across the country, and children are engaging in dangerous forms of work. There is a noted increase of unaccompanied or separated children amongst working children. Within Mount Lebanon, there are reports of men approaching girls on the streets. Increased restrictions on visa renewals and entry into Lebanon of Palestinian refugees from Syria is also increasing concerns about the impact on children (UNHCR 18/07/2014).
Lesotho Country Analysis
No significant new developments this week, 17/10/2014. Last update 08/10/2014.
- The number of food insecure people, estimated at 30%, has doubled since February 2014. Around 450,000 people in all districts will require humanitarian assistance for a period of 4–5 months from October–November 2014 (FAO, 03/07/2014).
- As of July, acute malnutrition rates among children under five stand at 8%. 16% of the population is underweight (OCHA, 25/07/2014).
- More than 25,000 new HIV infections occur every year in Lesotho.
After weeks of crisis, it has been agreed that the King will reconvene parliament on 17 October, and elections will be held two years early, in February 2015. Thabane has announced that he will contest the elections (BBC, 03/10/2014; Reuters, 02/10/2014). Prime Minister Thabane returned to Lesotho in September following an alleged coup.
In June, the leading party, the All Basotho Convention (ABC), suspended Parliament for nine months, following the opposition’s attempt to pass a motion of no confidence on the governing coalition. Tensions escalated between the Lesotho Defence Force and the Lesotho police, which side with different political parties (Institute for Security Studies, 29/07/2014; 03/07/2014). At the end of August, Prime Minister Thomas Thabane fled the country, alleging a military coup (UN, African Union, 31/08/2014).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
The number of food insecure doubled to 447,760 people, or 30% of the population, between February and July. These people will require humanitarian assistance for a period of 4–5 months from October/November 2014 to February/March 2015 (OCHA, 31/07/2014; FAO 09/10/2014). Staple food prices have started to increase in line with seasonal trends. Combined with poor production and reduced income opportunities, this will result in poor households facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes between October and December (FEWSNET, 27/08/2014).
The highest concentration of food insecure people is located in the western districts of Maseru, Mafeteng, and Mohale's Hoek (FAO, 01/08/2014).
Agriculture and Markets
In southern Lesotho livelihood zones – namely in the lowlands, the Senqu river valley and the foothills between the lowlands and the highlands – the areas most affected by reduced production, prices for maize, a staple, are 220–290% above prices at the same time in 2010, the reference year (FEWSNET, 31/07/2014).
Despite a significant 26% increase in the area planted with maize this year, heavy rain and frost damage contributed to a reduction in yields (FAO, 01/08/2014). Maize accounts for almost all of the cereal harvest (83%).The 2014 cereal crop, which was harvested in May–June, is estimated at a comparable level to the previous year’s near-average output. Sorghum production is estimated to be 29–75% lower than in 2013 (FEWSNET, 14/08/2014; FAO, 01/08/2014).
Health and Nutrition
On 7 March, international media reported that contribution shortfalls from donor countries – cutbacks of around 30% in 2014 and another 20% in 2015 – threaten adequate treatment of HIV/AIDS patients in what is an already underfinanced healthcare system. HIV prevalence is 23.5% among adults, and more than 25,000 new HIV infections occur every year. Lesotho also has particularly high HIV–tuberculosis co-infection rates (ICAP, 01/07/2014).
As of July, acute malnutrition rates among children under five stand at 8%. 16% of the population is estimated to be underweight (OCHA, 25/07/2014).
Libya Country Analysis
21 October: Libya’s elected parliament officially endorsed former General Haftar and his Operation Dignity against Islamist militias.
15–19 October: Former General Haftar launched an offensive to recapture Benghazi. Over 75 people have been killed in the clashes (AFP, 17/10/2014; 19/10/2014).
- The conflict has affected more than two million people (UN, 03/09/2014), with 1,000 people killed and 4,000 injured
- 290,000 people are internally displaced, and more than 150,000 people have sought refuge abroad (OCHA, 03/09/2014; UNHCR 10/10/2014).
- Over 331,000 people are at risk and in need of humanitarian assistance (OCHA, 08/10/2014).
- Indiscriminate shelling and targeting of civilian areas (UNSMIL, 04/09/2014).
- Access is a major concern (OCHA, 03/09/2014).
The rapidly deteriorating security situation in Libya continues to cause new waves of displacement, particularly in the western outskirts of Tripoli and in the eastern city of Benghazi. The renewed fighting is deepening the humanitarian needs of IDPs and communities affected by the fighting. The price of food and basic items such as cooking fuel and wheat flour, have doubled.
Most displaced people are living in schools and host communities under growing strain from the influx. Access is difficult, with blocked roads preventing the delivery of food and medical supplies to areas most affected by conflict.
On 23 September, Prime Minister Al Thani won the blessing of parliament for his proposed cabinet of 13 ministers, an earlier proposal having been rejected (AFP, 23/09/2014). The Government was sworn in on 28 September. The previous Government had resigned on 1 September, admitting it had lost control over Tripoli to Islamist armed militias.
The political crisis has led to worsening armed conflict over the course of the year. Without a minimum of consensus, Libya is likely to have two ineffectual governments with militias exerting real control on the ground (International Crisis Group, 01/09/2014). The House of Representatives, elected in June, moved to Tobruk in early August. On 25 August, the Islamist-dominated General National Congress, which had preceded the House of Representatives and never stood down, reconvened and voted to replace the House.
On 21 October, Libya’s elected parliament officially endorsed former General Haftar and his Operation Dignity against Islamist militias.
Despite hostilities, a referendum on a new constitution has been scheduled for December (Reuters, 11/09/2014).
On 29 September, UN-brokered talks began between Libya's House of Representatives and elected members who have boycotted the assembly and have links to the General National Congress (Reuters, 01/10/201). The Libya Dawn coalition in Tripoli denounced the dialogue and declared that it was continuing with its military operations. The Shura Council of Benghazi Revolutionaries (SCBR) issued its own statement rejecting the initiative, and the country's highest religious authority called for the suspension of the talks (AFP, 30/09/2014). In what may signal a rift in Libya Dawn, Libya Shield Central has said it remains open to involvement in potential peace talks (Libya Herald, 02/10/2014). Further talks are planned in Algeria later this month, with Algeria planning to invite only elected officials (Libya Herald, 04/10/2014; 5/10/2014). The UN has announced it plans to hold talks with militias (Reuters, 01/10/2014).
The surge in violence since mid-July has affected more than two million people (UN, 03/09/2014). Current estimates from Libya’s Emergency Crisis Committee and local partners suggest that 1,000 people had been killed and 4,000 injured, and 107,028 displaced by 3 September.
On 17 September, heavy fighting broke out on the coast road towards Zawia from Tripoli, with heavy artillery shelling (IOM, 17/09/2014). On 8 October, Prime Minister Al Thani announced that Egypt would help to train the Libyan army and called on Libyans to fight Islamist-led militias that have overrun the capital.
Ansar al Sharia has declared an Islamic emirate in the eastern city of Derna and pledged allegiance to Islamic State (Al Arabiya, 06/10/2014).
An abundance of weapons from the NATO-backed uprising against Gaddafi are sustaining warring factions (AFP, 14/07/2014). Frequent air strikes have taken place on populated areas in Benghazi since May, while in Tripoli there have been two air strikes (UNSMIL, 04/09/2014). The United Nations Stabilization Mission for Libya left the country in mid-July.
The Libya Shield brigades, tied to the city of Misrata, are allied to Islamist political forces, as are the Shura Council of Benghazi Revolutionaries (SCBR), a Benghazi-based alliance including Ansar al Sharia, Libya Shield units and other armed groups. Together with insurgents from Tripoli and other towns including al Zawiya and Gheryan, these groups make up the Libya Dawn.
The Al Qa’qa’ and Al Sawai’q brigades, allied with the city of Zintan, and fighters from the Warshefana region west of Tripoli back the House of Representatives, as does former General Khalifa Haftar, supported by units of Libya's regular armed forces.
Tripoli has witnessed continuous violence since 13 July, when Tripoli-based armed groups allied with others, primarily from the city of Misrata but also from other towns including al Zawiya and Gheryan, launched Operation Dawn
Over 11–12 October, militias from Zintan attacked the neighbouring town of Kekla, which supports Libya Dawn. The clashes left 21 people dead and more than 60 wounded (AFP, 13/10/2014).
On 16 September, fighter jets from an unknown country have reportedly carried out at least four attacks near Tripoli, targeting ammunition warehouses and weapons depots under the control of Operation Dawn. Egypt and the United Arab Emirates were believed to have carried out air strikes against armed groups in Libya in August, but neither state has admitted responsibility for the attacks (Al Jazeera, 16/09/2014).
On 24 August, Operation Dawn fighters seized control of the airport and other areas of Tripoli, and Zintan-affiliated armed groups withdrew. Fighting was still ongoing in the Warshefana region (UNSMIL, 04/09/2014).
On 15 October, former General Haftar launched an offensive to recapture Benghazi, which appears to have been mostly under SCBR control since mid-July (UNSMIL, 04/09/2014). Previously, Haftar’s forces had been forced to retreat to Benghazi airport, which has been under attack by Islamists since mid-September. By 19 October, 75 people had been killed in the clashes (AFP, 17/10/2014; 19/10/2014).
Over 2–9 October, at least 17 people, mostly soldiers, were killed in fighting (AFP, 09/10/2014). The Islamist militias have not disclosed their casualties. Reports indicated warplanes and military helicopters over the city, as well as anti-aircraft fire (AFP, 09/10/2014). Ansar al Sharia has announced it aims to seize the airport, but does not plan to capture other cities (Reuters, 10/10/2014). Military planes and helicopters have bombed the 17 February Brigade’s headquarters, those of SCBR in Hawari, and SCBR facilities in Gwarsha (Libya Herald, 04/10/2014). Several residential areas have been subjected to regular shelling. Some areas have been subject to air attacks (UNSMIL, 04/09/2014).
On 24 September, an air strike on a port in Benghazi was claimed by forces loyal to Haftar. Haftar’s forces claim Islamists were using the port to bring in supplies and weapons; the port is the main gateway for wheat and fuel imports into eastern Libya (Reuters, 24/09/2014).
By 28 September, clashes in Sabha, southern Libya, between Awlad Suleiman and Gaddadfa tribes had killed at least two people (AFP, 28/09/2014). A ceasefire for Eid celebrations was agreed on 1 October (Libya Herald, 02/10/2014).
Obari, Wadi Al Haya municipality in western Libya, has seen armed clashes between the Tebu and Tuareg communities since mid-September. They began when Tuaregs supportive of Libya Dawn, and reportedly from another region, tried to take over Obari’s main fuel station (Reporters sans Frontieres, 14/10/2014).
Egypt, Tunisia, and Algeria are all concerned that the violence will spill into their territories (Reuters, 11/10/2014). In August, the United States said Egypt and the United Arab Emirates secretly bombed Islamist militia positions near Tripoli's airport (AFP, 08/10/2014).
Libya lacks the staff and equipment to effectively control border movements. In late September, 15 members of Islamic State crossed from Egypt into Libya (Reuters, 13/10/2014).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
Indiscriminate fighting has led to restrictions of movement for people trying to flee conflict areas. Violence and checkpoints along the route to Zawia from Tripoli are preventing people from reaching the Tunisian border.
Most humanitarian agencies have left, owing to the deterioration of the security context. Even before the worsening security situation prompted aid organisations to withdraw, there were few humanitarian agencies with staff on the ground in Libya. The lack of available cooperating partners is a major challenge for planned aid deliveries (IRIN, 30/09/2014).
National capacity is very limited. The agency tasked with leading the humanitarian response reports that it has not received funds in over a year, and evaluates its own response capacity as almost non-existent (IRIN 07/08/2014).
Armed groups lack knowledge of humanitarian organisations and restrict their access to people in need.
Security Incidents Involving Aid Workers
On 4 June, an ICRC staff member was assassinated in Sirte, prompting the ICRC to suspend its work in the country (UN Security Council, 05/09/2014).
Power outages of up to 19 hours a day in Tripoli impede communications (IRIN, 01/10/2014).
The battle for Tripoli airport resulted in the damage or destruction of numerous civilian aircraft and the ignition of a large fuel storage facility on airport road that burned for days. Bridge 27, linking Tripoli and western Libyan cities, has also been damaged (UNSMIL, 04/09/2014). Significant damage and destruction has been reported to public installations in Tripoli’s southern and western suburbs (UN Security Council, 05/09/2014).
As of 10 October, there are 290,000 IDPs from 29 cities and towns in Libya, including 100,000 displaced from the area around Warshefana since mid-September (UNHCR, 10/10/2014). Additionally, at least 56,544 IDPs still displaced since the 2011 armed conflict (IDMC, 23/09/2014). Between mid-May and late September, at least 165,968 people were displaced in eastern and western Libya; approximately 4,800 IDPs because of clashes in southern Libya in January. Approximately 33,650 IDPs are located in Benghazi (IRIN, 01/10/2014).
Most displaced people are living with local families who, in some cases, have opened their homes to several families. People unable to stay with relatives or host families sleep in schools, parks, or non-residential buildings (UNHCR, 10/10/2014). Many of those displaced in Benghazi have found shelter in schools (UNSMIL, 04/09/2014).
The west of the country has been most affected, such as the districts of Az Zawiyah and Yafran. Displaced families are currently being hosted by relatives and local communities or living in public buildings or shelters (OCHA, 03/09/2014).
In Tripoli, many internally displaced Tawerghans reportedly left their camps at the beginning of the fighting because of the shelling and fear of abduction. Following the victory of Operation Dawn, al Fallah camp, in an area under the control of Operation Dawn, was raided on 30 August. One person was reportedly killed and three injured. Many Tawerghans also left the camp at the Janzour Marine Academy for fear of abduction, moving to a number of locations including Bani Walid and Tarhouna to the east of Tripoli, and al Zawiya, Surman, and Ajaylat to the west (UNSMIL, 04/09/2014).
Migrants, Refugees and Asylum-seekers in Libya
Prior to the crisis, in addition to IDPs from the 2011 conflict, Libya was supporting an increasing population of refugees and asylum seekers using the country as an exit point to Europe. Some of these have been further displaced by the current unrest (UNHCR, 12/07/2014).
There are approximately 200,000 migrants, refugees and asylum-seekers in Tripoli, Misrata and Benghazi. Among them, 7,000 are deemed particularly vulnerable and need immediate evacuation assistance (IOM, 05/09/2014). Detention of migrants, asylum-seekers and refugees in Libya is widespread and prolonged; conditions, which were poor prior to the current fighting, have worsened (UNSMIL, 04/09/2014). Third-country nationals face extreme difficulties in leaving the country as passage through Libya’s borders with Egypt and Tunisia is restricted (IOM, 14/09/2014).
While some migrants were displaced towards the south of the country, others opted to attempt leaving Libya by sea (IOM, 05/09/2014). Main departure points to Europe have shifted from Tripoli towards Benghazi, from where the journey is longer and more dangerous (IRIN, 06/08/2014). More than 3,000 migrants have died trying to cross the Mediterranean so far this year, more than double the previous peak in 2011 (IOM, cited in AFP 02/10/2014). 2,200 died between the beginning of June and 15 September (AI, 30/09/2014). The vast majority of refugees and migrants who arrived in Italy in 2014 had departed from Libya (AI, 30/09/2014).
Refugees and Third-country Nationals in Neighbouring Countries
More than 150,000 people, including third-country nationals (estimated at 15,000) have sought refuge abroad (OCHA, 03/09/2014). Since mid-July, a steady flow of Libyans and migrants have crossed to Tunisia through the two main land crossing points. After Eid al Fitr (28 July) the normal flows of migrants increased from 4,000 to about 16,000 per day for several days (UNSMIL, 04/09/2014). In August, 6,000 people were crossing from Libya into Tunisia every day; most were Third Country Nationals (TCNs) (ICRC, 22/09/2014).
Since 2011, approximately 1.8 million people have fled to Tunisia (NYT, 09/09/2014).
Shortages of basic food supplies have been reported in all areas of Tripoli and food prices have risen drastically (IOM, 12/08/2014). Warehouses (both public and private) are situated in conflict areas, and fuel shortages are aggravating the situation. Food prices have doubled (UNHCR, 10/10/2014).
Farms have been shelled and livestock killed in Qasr Ben Ghashir, according to local authorities (Amnesty International, 08/08/2014).
Libya largely depends on imports (up to 90%) for its cereal consumption requirements and the country’s increasing isolation could impede food imports (FAO, 28/01/2014).
People in Benghazi and Tripoli specifically, and in other cities in general, have been facing regular electricity cuts, plus interruptions to the internet and wider communications. In Tripoli, fuel shortages and water cuts have affected livelihoods (IFRC, 12/08/2014).
Health and Nutrition
Large numbers of expatriate medical personnel have left Libya, and such staff make up 80% of all medical personnel, according to the Ministry of Health. According to the Libyan Ministry of Health, the health system could collapse if the trend continues.
The hospitals that remain operating in Tripoli and Benghazi have been overstretched dealing with casualties. Many national medical personnel could not report to work due to insecurity. Al Afya hospital near the airport in Tripoli had to close on 17 July, after it was hit by several shells. The Tripoli Medical Centre was also hit by shells on 13 August. Hospitals in the Al Hawari area of Tripoli have had to suspend operations due to shelling. In Benghazi, Al Jala hospital was occupied for several weeks by Ansar al Shari’a. On 28 August five newly equipped ambulances were stolen (IRIN, 02/09/2014).
Hospital staff in Tripoli and Al Zawiya reported that medical supplies could not be retrieved from storage facilities, which were inaccessible or had been destroyed (UNSMIL, 04/09/2014). Vaccines have been stolen from warehouses (IOM, 12/08/2014). The Libyan Red Crescent Society branches in Zawia, Khoms, Eljmail, and Zwara have reported difficulties in accessing and transporting medicines and medical supplies for people with chronic diseases and nursing mothers (IFRC, 12/08/2014). In Warshefana, fighting has disrupted health services and Zahra hospital reported severe shortages of medicines and medical supplies (ICRC, 17/09/2014).
Benghazi’s Jalaa Hospital was closed on 4 October, following fighting which broke out as locals attempted to evict Ansar-Al Sharia forces. Ansar and SCBR fighters wounded during the fighting for Benina airport had been treated at the hospital (Libya Herald, 04/10/2014).
Increased shelling on residential areas has been observed mainly in Tripoli and Benghazi (IFRC, 28/07/2014). Alongside civilian properties, factories, mosques, and shops have also been destroyed in the residential areas of Qasr Ben Ghashir, Al Akwakh, Kremiya, and along the main airport road in Tripoli (Amnesty International, 08/08/2014).
In Benghazi and nearby Derna, there have been at least 250 politically motivated killings in 2014 (HRW, 24/09/2014). Peace activists as well as senior army officers and journalists were killed in a string of 10 coordinated assassinations on 19 September (The Guardian, 20/09/2014).
In Tripoli, a number of activists and other public figures have been abducted, received threats or had their homes looted or burned since July (UNHCR, 14/10/2014).
Abductions, looting, burning of homes and other acts of revenge have all been frequently reported in relation to ongoing hostilities (UN Security Council, 05/09/2014).
With some exceptions, civilians have not been given the chance to evacuate before hostilities commenced and severe fighting has taken place in and around houses and other places of refuge (UNSMIL, 04/09/2014).
Abduction and Detention
In addition to the detention of fighters or suspected fighters, dozens of civilians have been abducted and remain missing solely for their actual or suspected tribal, family, or religious affiliation (UNSMIL, 04/09/2014). Fighters from Operation Dawn have reportedly continued to search for and abduct people following their takeover of Tripoli (UNSMIL, 04/09/2014). In eastern Libya, soon after mid-May, Operation Dignity detained dozens of men in areas under their control based on their political or religious affiliation or nationality, in addition to fighters of the SCBR (UNSMIL, 04/09/2014).
Third-country refugees and asylum-seekers, including unaccompanied children, face arbitrary arrest and indefinite detention for migration control purposes by both state and non-state actors. Torture and ill-treatment has also been reported (AI, 30/09/2014).
Mines and ERW
Land mines reportedly used in the airport area in Tripoli and are now a major hazard. In many cases, incorrectly armed fuses or faulty ammunition have resulted in large quantities of unexploded ordnance in conflict areas (UNSMIL, 04/09/2014).
Mauritania Country Analysis
No significant developments this week 13/10/2014. Last update: 07/10/2014
- 384,000 people estimated to needing humanitarian assistance in 2014 (OCHA, 08/2014).
- 800,000 people are estimated to be food insecure, of whom 190,000 are severely food insecure (OCHA, 02/2014).
- 31,000 SAM cases up to March 2014 mean that acute malnutrition level has already surpassed the estimated caseload for the year (UNICEF, 03/2014).
- Security challenges continue to be a problem in Mbera refugee camp on the border with Mali. Mauritania is the largest recipient of refugees fleeing the conflict in Mali (UNHCR, 06/2014 and OCHA, 04/2014).
National Political Context
On 21 June, President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz was elected for another five-year term, winning 82% of the vote, according to the Election Commission. Most opposition parties boycotted the poll, citing a lack of electoral reform.
In 2013, the first legislative elections were held since 2006, and the country’s ruling Union for the Republic and its allies won 76 of 147 seats. The National Electoral Commission announced a record turnout of 75% of 1.2 million registered voters. However, the vote was boycotted by most parties in the 11-member Coordination of Democratic Opposition. The credibility of the government continues to be questioned by much of the northern population, who claim they are being marginalised concerning the provision of basic services.
Humanitarian Context and Needs
Mauritania hosts almost 55,000 Malian refugees as of 1 September (OCHA, 08/09/2014). Almost all refugees live in Mbera camp, a remote desert location on the border with Mali that has significant security challenges. According to UNICEF, 60% of camp residents are women and children, and many have been in the camp for two years, resulting in overlapping emergency and medium-term needs. Mbera camp is located in a poor region, where food insecurity and malnutrition are high and government services are few. Security problems and the inaccessibility of areas of northern Mali make it difficult to obtain return figures. A tripartite agreement is being prepared between UNHCR, Mali, and Mauritania to facilitate the safe return of refugees.
The improvement in rainfall conditions in the first three weeks of August were insufficient to cover rainfall deficits experienced earlier in the season. Poor households in northwestern areas of the agropastoral zone will continue to have difficulty maintaining regular food access and will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through December (FEWSNET, 09/2014).
In February, nearly 800,000 people, a fifth of the total population, were food insecure, including 190,000 severely food insecure (OCHA, 02/2014). Half of the country records malnutrition rates above the emergency threshold, and humanitarian partners indicate that a third of the country’s population requires humanitarian assistance.
Small-scale desert locust breeding is likely to continue during October in the south. Locust numbers are expected to increase in the west and northwest as vegetation dries out (FAO, 02/10/2014).
Food Security in the Sahel Region
24.7 million people in the Sahel (Burkina Faso, north Cameroon, Chad, the Gambia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, north Nigeria, and Senegal) are suffering from food insecurity as of 30 September (OCHA, 07/10/2014).. Food insecurity in 2014 has risen dramatically compared to 2013, when 11.3 million people had inadequate food (OCHA, 03/02/2014).
Health and Nutrition
Late March, UNICEF reported that 125,300 children will be affected by acute malnutrition in 2014, including 30,740 children with severe acute malnutrition; an increase of almost 30% compared to the 2013 caseload.
Preliminary results of an August survey indicate that the national GAM rate has decreased from 13.1% to 9.8%, with SAM at 1%. Guidimakha region is reported to have GAM of 16%, exceeding the emergency threshold. GAM is over 10% in Gorgol, Assaba, Tagant, Hod El Chargui and Hod El Garbi (UNICEF, 10/2014).
Myanmar Country Analysis
15 October: The Myanmar Army has ordered more than 1,000 Kachin residents to leave the villages of Kanzihall, Aung Bar Lay and Tang Kaw, Kachin state, warning civilians of possible fighting between the army and KIA rebels (local media, 16/10/2014).
14 October: The commanders of units of different Karen rebel groups, including the Democratic Karen Buddhist Association (DKBA) and parts of the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), the armed wing of the Karen National Union, announced they would begin military cooperation in order to confront the increase of army operations in their areas over several months (local media, 14/10/2014).
11 October: An explosion killed four people, including a child, and wounded ten more in a mortar bomb explosion on a road between the towns of Kawkareik and Myawaddy. Residents suspect the attack was linked to the recent fighting between troops and rebels from the DKBA (AFP, 12/10/2014).
- Repeated bloodshed between Buddhists and Muslims in Rakhine state since 2012, with human rights abuses against the Muslim minority reported (UN).
- 640,000 IDPs, resulting from years of internal conflict, including 137,400 IDPs, mainly Rohingya Muslims, in Rakhine state (OCHA, 08/2014).
The military-led authoritarian regime in Myanmar (Burma) has made moves to improve its record on human rights over recent years, with the release of the opposition activist Aung San Suu Kyi in November 2010 being a turning point. Since 2013, several amnesties have been granted to political prisoners.
While recent efforts by the authorities to improve the country’s human rights record have been welcomed, local activists report that the prosecution of dissidents is continuing.
New rules approved by the Yangon divisional parliament on 29 August mean that only 1.5% of the voting-age population will be allowed to vote in the city’s next elections (local media 01/09/2014).
Minority groups make up some 30% of the 51.4 million population, and ethnic and political groups have conducted protracted insurgencies mainly in remote and economically marginalised areas such as Kachin, Kayin (Karen ethnic group), Kayah (Karenni), Rakhine, and Shan states (Government, 28/08/2014).
In 2013, authorities signed several separate peace deals with various insurgent movements, with the exception of the Kachin Independence Army (the armed wing of the Kachin Independence Organisation, or KIO), and the ethnic Ta’aung army (TNLA).
In July, the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT), the most comprehensive alliance of ethnic actors to assemble in recent history, established guidelines for pursuing peace talks with the Myanmar Government (local media 31/07/2014). The most notable exclusions from the NCCT are the Shan State Army-South and the United Wa State Party.
As of late September, the NCCT is unable to reach agreement with the Government on the proposed nationwide ceasefire (local media, 25/09/2014). Unresolved issues revolve around military issues and security sector reform (local media, 29/09/2014).
Despite peace negotiations between the authorities and various insurgent groups, the security situation remains tense in parts of Myanmar, especially in the north. In the west, massive human rights infringements against the Rohingya Muslim minority in Rakhine state, continue to be reported. Myanmar has so far signed ceasefires with 14 of the 16 major armed ethnic groups (AFP, 12/10/2014). The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), a rebel force of an estimated 800 fighters in Shan and Kachin State and the Kachin Independence Army, have not struck bilateral agreements with the Government (IRIN, 08/10/2014).
According to local sources and several human rights organisations, at least 40 people, including women and children, were killed in government attacks on Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine state in January. Médecins Sans Frontières reported that it treated 22 people who had apparently been wounded around the same time as the reported massacre of Muslims. The Government denies the incident, a though it acknowledges that clashes took place. The UN is calling for an investigation. Tensions remain high, with authorities imposing restrictions on the displaced Muslim minority.
On 15 October, the Myanmar Army ordered more than 1,000 Kachin residents to leave the villages of Kanzihall, Aung Bar Lay and Tang Kaw, located about 16 km from the jade mining town of Hpakant, Kachin State, warning civilians of possible fighting between the army and KIA rebels (local media, 16/10/2014).
A week of conflict between the Myanmar army and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in April affected several villages and IDP camps on the borders between Kachin state, northern Shan state, and China. Over 2,700 people were displaced and are being hosted in four camps around Man Win Gyi and Nam Kham. Clashes between the KIA and state army have been intermittent since the termination of a 17-year ceasefire in June 2011. Subsequent ceasefire negotiations have repeatedly failed. The Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), the military wing of the KIA, still has administrative control over several key areas of Kachin (local media, 06/10/2014).
Kayin and Mon States
On 14 October, the commanders of units of different Karen rebel groups, including the Democratic Karen Buddhist Association (DKBA) and parts of the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), the armed wing of the Karen National Union, announced they would begin a military cooperation in order to confront the increase of army operations in their areas over several months (local media, 14/10/2014).
On 11 October, an explosion killed four people, including a child, and wounded ten more in a mortar bomb explosion on a road between the towns of Kawkareik and Myawaddy. Residents suspect the attack was linked to the recent fighting between troops and rebels from the DKBA (AFP, 12/10/2014).
On 26 September, tensions and occasional incidents escalated into full-scale clashes between government forces and the DKBA, a group of primarily Buddhist soldiers that broke away from the Kayin National Liberation Army in 1994. In some of the worst fighting since 2012, fighting involving mortar fire and rocket-propelled grenades was reported in Mon state’s Kyaikmayaw township and near Kayin state’s Myawaddy town (local media, 29/09/2014). Two civilians were injured on 29 September when a bus was hit by an explosive device in Myaing Gyi Ngu village during a DKBA ambush of a Myanmar soldiers near Thamanya Hill, about 40km southeast of Kayin state capital Hpa-an (local media, 01/10/2014). Over 100 villagers were displaced in central Mon state (local media, 29/09/2014). The Kayin militia’s leadership has been negotiating with Burmese military officers to prevent further clashes from breaking out (local media, 26/09/2014). The Karen National Union has joined the peace talks and a new round is scheduled to begin in late October (AFP, 12/10/2014).
Fighting continues in eastern Shan state, and hundreds of people have fled insecurity since June.
In northern Shan state, two civilians were killed and at least ten children wounded after fighting broke out between government troops and opposition fighters over 19–20 of July. Fighting between the regular army and the Shan State Army-North (SSA-N) has continued despite agreeing a ceasefire in January 2012.
Humanitarian Context and Needs
According to local NGOs, the delivery of aid to conflict-affected communities in remote areas within Shan and Kachin State, is hampered by the fact that some areas are categorized as “black zones” by the Myanmar army and foreign groups’ access is therefore restricted (IRIN, 08/10/2014).
Over 36,000 people were displaced by floods or strong winds during August.
In Mon state, 7,000 people were temporarily evacuated and in Rakhine state, 6,400 people were displaced due to floods and rising river levels. Evacuees have since returned to their homes and camps have been closed (OCHA, 08/2014).
Five residential areas of Tachilek, at the border between Shan state and northern Thailand, were flooded on 17 September. No deaths have been reported, but many stranded civilians were in need of rescue. Schools in the region are closed. Many market stalls in this major trade hub between Myanmar and Thailand were reported to be severely damaged (local media, 18/09/2014).
Rescue camps for the 25,800 victims of earlier flooding in the towns of Bago, Thanatpin, Waw and Kawa in Bago region have been closed as waters receded. At end August, 25 flood shelters are still open in Kawa town (local media, 28/08/2014).
As of September, WFP expected that funding shortfalls would limit the ability of humanitarian actors to address food needs in Myanmar beginning in November (USAID, 30/09/2014).
Over 50% of 5,000 IDPs in southern Kachin are in areas beyond government control, which are difficult to access (IRIN 05/2014).
On 11 September, the Government lifted a curfew in the city of Sittwe, which had been imposed more than two years ago (INGO, 12/09/2014).
As of mid-July, a vulnerability mapping exercise showed that 36,000 Rohingya Muslims in 113 isolated villages in Rakhine state have no or limited access to basic services, including markets, education, and healthcare (OCHA). Access to services is impeded by tension and restrictions on freedom of movement. Many Rohingyas cannot travel, get married, or even seek medical treatment without official permission, which is costly and difficult to obtain.
On 23 July, the Rakhine state Government issued a statement inviting UN agencies and INGOs to work in Rakhine, which should facilitate humanitarian access, although international media reports from the end of July indicate that access to northern Rakhine state along the Myanmar–Bangladesh border is tightly restricted. In June, over 60% of humanitarian personnel had returned to Rakhine and operations were being scaled back up after assistance was disrupted in March, following attacks against humanitarian workers over perceived bias towards Rohingyas. The Government has designated a specific area of Sittwe – the Southern Quarter – for relief organisations to establish offices and accommodation. NGOs and UN agencies have identified the limited availability of space in the Southern Quarter as a key constraint to operating at full capacity (USAID 02/07/2014).
Buddhist Rakhine activists and politicians have campaigned to restrict healthcare and other aid for many of the estimated one million Rohingya living in the state.
As of 1 August, there are 639,502 IDPS in Myanmar, of whom 400,000 are in the southeast (OCHA, 08/2014).
Rakhine: 137,400 people, mainly Rohingya Muslims, continue to be displaced as of end of July, since inter-communal violence erupted between Rakhine Buddhists and the Muslim minority in June and October 2012 (OCHA, 08/2014). An estimated 50,000 people live in host communities and 50,000 in isolated villages. 70,000 are said to be food insecure (OCHA 31/07/2014). Rohingya Muslims continue to face abuse and movement restrictions, according to reports from human rights groups; most are considered crisis-affected and need humanitarian assistance.
Kachin: 99,070 people are displaced in Kachin and Shan states, with almost half of the IDPs living in areas where Government services are not available (OCHA, 09/2014). An estimated 20,000 live with host communities. Many have been displaced for up to two years, triggering renewed and additional needs for provision of basic services, livelihoods, and protection. As of 6 October, 5,000 people fled Tanaing township in the capital Myitkyina amid concerns over possible renewed fighting between local armed opposition and government forces following a KIA recruitment drive (local media, 06/10/2014).
Shan: Tensions remain high in Man Pu village despite the return of most of the 800 people displaced by fighting between government forces and TNLA (Ta’ang Liberation Army) over 19–21 July (local media, 19/08/2014). 400 people abandoned another village in fear of Myanmar army reprisals after the death of two army officials (local media 01/08/2014). Almost 4,000 people have been displaced from Palaung (Ta’ang) villages (local media 25/07/2014). Fighting in northern and eastern Shan is disrupting humanitarian access to some areas and people are in urgent need of livelihood support (local media 21/07/2014; OCHA 08/2014).
Refugees from Myanmar
According to UNHCR as of late March, over 415,000 refugees originate from Myanmar.
In early November, UNHCR reported that an increasing number of people, mainly Muslims from Rakhine state, are setting out to sea on smuggling boats from the Bay of Bengal. Although numbers are difficult to obtain, such forced departures often result in disaster as boats capsize.
Bangladesh: To date, most Rohingya are denied refugee status by the Bangladeshi authorities. An estimated 30,000 Rohingya Muslims live in official camps, where they are assisted by aid agencies, and another 200,000 refugees reside in unofficial camps or Bangladeshi villages where they get little or no humanitarian assistance and almost no protection from human rights abuse.
Malaysia: In June, 28,000 Rakhine Muslims were registered as refugees in Malaysia (UNHCR). However, according to groups representing them, the real number of Myanmar Muslim immigrants is much higher.
Thailand: In July, the Thai junta pledged to send back to Myanmar about 100,000 of the 120,000 refugees living in the border camps (UNHCR has registered 76,000 refugees). Since June, movement restrictions have been more strictly enforced; Myanmar refugees are banned from leaving the camps, confined to their homes from 1800-0600, and threatened with deportation if they don’t comply (Refugees International 29/08/2014). Rohingya Muslims are reportedly subject to human trafficking in Thailand (international human rights organisations, 12/2013).
Overall, the food security situation has improved. However, recurrent inter-communal tensions since June 2012 have negatively impacted the food security situation of the vulnerable population, mainly the IDPs (FAO, 24/09/2014).
Health and Nutrition
Health services in Rakhine remain inadequate, especially in the north.
In June, 2.1% SAM and 6.8% MAM was found among 32,000 children under five screened in Rakhine. This indicates a deterioration in the nutritional status of children in parts of Rakhine state since March. Severely malnourished children are being referred to Sittwe hospital; fewer referral services, high transportation costs, and fear of traveling to Sittwe are preventing many children from receiving medical care (OCHA 30/06/2014).
In Rakhine state, a general deterioration in the WASH situation in camps is aggravating health problems and increasing the risk of waterborne disease (OCHA, 11/09/2014).
On 7 October, the Government began the release of 3,000 amestied prisoners, citing humanitarian grounds. The prisoners released include one political prisoner and former military intelligence figures (AFP, 07/10/2014).
Legal Status of Rohingya Muslims
The Government has drafted a plan which would force Rohingya Muslims either to register as Bengalis or be detained. The plan proposes Rakhine authorities construct temporary camps for people who refuse to be registered or who are without adequate documents. Rights advocates say it could potentially put thousands of Rohingya, including those living in long-settled villages, at risk of indefinite detention. Accepting the term Bengali could leave the Rohingya vulnerable should authorities class them as illegal immigrants and attempt to send them to Bangladesh (Reuters, 27/09/2014).
Over 800,000 people, mostly Muslims, are estimated to be without citizenship in the northern part of Rakhine state (UNHCR). On 21 November 2013, authorities rejected a UN resolution urging them to grant citizenship to the Rohingya Muslims. Myanmar continues officially to state that the Rohingya Muslims are migrants from neighbouring Bangladesh, thus excluding them from citizenship under the 1982 Citizenship Law.
New census figures indicated 1.1 million people in Rakhine state, most of them Rohingya Muslims. This is the first time some Rohingyas have been included in the census. In the past the Government refused to acknowledge their existence and excluded them from any official publication (UNFPA, 30/08/2014).
91 children have been released from the armed forces as part of the Government and armed forces’ commitment to end the recruitment and use of children (UN 01/08/2014).
In Rakhine state, 28,000 vulnerable children require education support. 60,000 adolescents in isolated communities are without any education opportunities (OCHA, 08/2014).
Adolescent girls in camps in Kachin and Rakhine states face increasing violence and abuse, including SGBV (OCHA, 02/2014).
In 2014, the Women’s League of Burma released a report that documented more than 100 victims of sexual violence at the hands of the Myanmar army since Thein Sein’s government took power (local media 24/07/2014).
Mines and ERW
Around 15–20 people are injured annually by landmines in Kayah but the number of fatalities is unknown. More than 34,000 IDPs are at greatest risk due to their movement in unfamiliar areas. Mine clearance has not begun in Kayah state, despite a ceasefire since 2012.
Around five million people in Myanmar live in mine-contaminated areas, according to a 2011 report by Geneva Call (IRIN 25/07/2014).
16 October: Heavy rains that began on 9 October continued for several days, affecting, as of 14 October, large parts of the country (ECHO). There are 10 departments with significant damages, 9 people dead and 4,577 affected families (PAHO, 16/10/2014).
14 October: a 7.4 magnitude earthquake affected large parts of the country. As of 15 October, a yellow alert was in place in the departments of Chinandega, León, Managua, Carazo, Masaya, Granada and Rivas (Government). 100 000 people were preventively evacuated from coastal areas (ECHO).
- The current drought is the most severe in Nicaragua in more than 30 years. Nearly 75% of maize crops have been lost (OCHA).
- Vulnerable communities will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) Food Insecurity from October to December (FEWSNET, 01/09/2014).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
On 14 October, an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.4 on the Richter Scale affected large parts of the country. As of 15 October, a yellow alert was in place in the departments of Chinandega, León, Managua, Carazo, Masaya, Granada and Rivas (Government, 15/10/2014). 74 communities (100,000 people) were preventively evacuated from coastal areas immediately after the quake (ECHO, 15/10/2014).
It is estimated that 112 of the country’s 156 municipalities have reported damage or loss of crops due to the drought. Latest official assessments have revised estimated losses upward, to 77,000 metric tons of maize and 45,000 metric tons of rice. The worst-hit areas are the northern departments of Nueva Segovia, Madriz, and Estelí, bordering Honduras.
Nearly 75% of the primera maize crop has been lost (OCHA, 09/08/2014). Early prospects for the postrera season, which accounts for 40% of maize production, are uncertain. Severe losses of beans and groundnuts, as well as livestock, are reported. The dry spell also affected parts of the major growing areas of Matagalpa and Jinotega (FAO, 19/09/2014). The increase in temperatures in coastal areas has affected the fishing sector (EU, 20/08/2014).
Lower than average rainfall is forecasted for August to November. The situation could worsen by the beginning of 2015 if, as projected, the harvest of the second cropping season is below average (FAO, 09/10/2014).
The drought, which began in late July, has been the worst in more than 30 years. Nicaragua has requested aid from humanitarian and development actors in the country (OCHA, 29/08/2014).
Heavy rains began on 9 October and continued for several days, affecting, as of 14 October, large parts of the country (ECHO, 14/10/2014). There are ten departments with significant damages, 5 departments with minor damages, 42 municipalities affected, nine people dead and 18,308 affected people (4,577 families) (PAHO, 16/10/2014).
In August, 700 people in Managua were affected by floods after more than 100 houses were destroyed (Government, 26/08/2014).
The loss of primera crops and spikes in the price of beans means that poor households and migrants in the Dry Corridor will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity from October to December (FEWSNET, 16/09/2014).
Despite increased rainfall, moisture deficits in northeastern Nicaragua continue as the region has received insufficient rainfall since the beginning of the August-November Postrera season (FEWSNET, 17/10/2014).
Pakistan Country Analysis
19 October: Suspected separatists killed nine Punjabis in an ethnically motivated attack in Hub, Balochistan (AFP).
15 October: At least five people were killed and seven wounded by a suicide attack in Pir Mela, Khyber Agency (AFP).
- September floods have affected more than 2.53 million people, caused 367 deaths and injured 673 in Azad Kashmir, Punjab and Gilgit-Baltistan. Priority needs are health, food, shelter and access to safe drinking water (Government, 11/10/2014).
- Nearly 6,000 people were killed and 5,500 injured in militant, sectarian, terrorist, and politically motivated attacks in 2013, making it one of the deadliest years in the last decade (Center for Research and Security Studies).
- Over one million displaced by military operations in North Waziristan. There were already 930,000 IDPs in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA as of mid-December 2013.
- 2.9 million documented and undocumented Afghan refugees (UNHCR). Numbers are difficult to confirm.
Priority humanitarian needs are for health, nutrition, and food assistance. An estimated 4.2 million people were in need of humanitarian support in November 2013 (OCHA). The security situation remains volatile due to militant attacks in urban centres and military operations against the Taliban in the tribal areas. Peace talks with an increasingly fragmented Taliban are stop-start. Pakistan’s relations with neighbouring countries, and with the US, remain tense.
A year after Nawaz Sharif became Prime Minister, Pakistan is in a political crisis. Observers state the chaos can be blamed on the military undermining Sharif’s authority.
There are continued signs that the military is exploiting protests by Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Tahirul Qadri’s Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) to influence politics. Government negotiations with PTI and PAT were suspended on 12 September, after police arrested over 500 protestors in Islamabad and Lahore; a joint session at the parliament on 19 September condemned the protests (ICG, 01/10/2014).
As of 5 October, 1,332 civilians were killed in terrorist violence in Pakistan in 2014 (SATP, 05/10/2014). Over 1,400 people were killed in more than 850 incidents of violence between June 2013 and January 2014.
The Pakistan armed forces have intensified their military offensive against armed groups with strongholds in the North Waziristan Agency (NWA) of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The Government launched operation Zarb-e-Azb on 15 June, after the Taliban declared war and attacked Karachi airport, and the army began ground assaults and air strikes against suspected Taliban hideouts. Authorities announced mid-July that they would continue until all militants are eliminated. The area is off-limits to journalists, making assessments difficult. There are fears that many insurgents have escaped into Afghanistan.
Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
On 10 June, the Taliban vowed to start all-out war. A ceasefire had expired on 23 April, and both militant and security sources stated that the ceasefire was used by the Taliban to preserve militant bases.
Al Qaeda in South Asia
Early September, Ayman al Zawahiri, the Al Qaeda leader, announced a new branch, called Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, covering Myanmar and Bangladesh, the Indian states of Assam and Gujarat, and the disputed territory of Kashmir (Financial Times, 03/09/2014).
Al Qaeda claimed responsibility for a raid on a Karachi naval yard on 11 September, which left a sailor and three attackers dead, saying former military officers had helped in the attack. The Taliban also claimed to be behind the attack (AFP, 11/09/2014).
Bombing at an IDP camp in the northwestern town of Hangu killed seven civilians and injured ten on 28 September. Nobody claimed responsibility (AFP, 28/09/2014).
A car bomb suicide attack targeting a senior military officer killed at least four people and wounded 24 in Peshawar on 23 September (AFP, 23/09/2014).
A leader from the Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat (ASWJ), a Sunni religious group in Pakistan, was killed in a suspected sectarian attack on 21 September (AFP, 21/09/2014).
At least five people were killed and seven wounded by a suicide bomb attack in Pir Mela in Khyber Agency on 15 October (AFP, 15/10/2014). At least six people were killed and 17 others wounded when a bomb exploded in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on 4 October (AFP, 04/10/2014). Another bomb blast in the northwest had killed seven people and wounded another six in suspected sectarian violence on 1 October (AFP, 02/10/2014), while militant attacks targeting police on 15 September had killed three (AFP, 15/09/2014).
Unidentified militants attacked a NATO supply convoy on the Pak-Afghan Highway in Jamrud tehsil of Khyber tribal region in August, killing two (DAWN, 21/08/2014).
The United Baloch Front (UBF) has been running against the alleged annexation of Balochistan since 1948. 2014 saw a sharp rise in acts of violence. Attacks by Islamist armed groups are also a problem.
Suspected separatist insurgents killed nine Punjabis in an ethnically motivated attack in Hub on 19 October (AFP, 19/10/2014). At least three people were killed and two others injured on 6 October in the Khuzdar area of Balochistan (DAWN, 06/10/2014). A suicide bomb in a minority Shi’ite colony in southwest Balochistan had killed five people and wounded another 25 on 4 October (AFP, 05/10/2014). On 1 October, two UBF grenade attacks in Quetta killed four people and injured nine (DAWN, 02/10/2014).
Militant sources claim that many people with suspected links to separatist groups have disappeared at the hands of intelligence agencies.
Tensions in the Disputed Kashmir Region
Fighting along the border between Pakistan and India that began on 6 October had resulted in an estimated 20 casualties and thousands displaced by 9 October (UN, 09/10/2014). On 27–28 August, 15,000 people fled gunfire and shelling near the LoC between India and Pakistan (The Guardian, 28/08/2014). India cancelled talks with Pakistan in August, after Pakistan’s High Commissioner met Kashmiri separatist leaders in New Delhi (International Crisis Group, 01/09/2014).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
People affected by military operations in NWA face problems obtaining assistance, mostly due to lack of documentation. Within the IDP population female-headed households (7%), children-headed households (4%), older persons and persons with disabilities (5%) are excluded from distribution. Access to information, particularly on the registration process, available services, and support is lacking (OCHA, 15/08/2014).
Security Incidents Involving Aid Workers
Between January and August, 60 aid workers, including 12 polio workers, have been killed, 10 injured and 19 abducted. The highest number of incidents occurred in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA (23 each), followed by Sindh (13) (OCHA, 31/08/2014). In 2013, 155 aid workers were killed, 171 seriously wounded, and 134 kidnapped – a 66% increase in the number killed from 2012 (OCHA, 19/08/2014).
A roadside bomb exploded along the Afghan border in northwest Pakistan on 8 October, killing two civilians, including a polio vaccinator, and wounding one (AFP, 08/10/2014).
As of 11 October, monsoon rains and floods have affected more than 2.53 million people, caused 367 deaths, and injured 673 people in Punjab (2.47 million affected), Azad Kashmir (47,000 affected) and Gilgit-Baltistan (13,270 affected). More than 107,000 houses have been damaged and 971,000 hectares of cropped areas affected.
684,000 people have been evacuated, 3,720 of whom are residing in seven camps (Government, 11/10/2014). Access has been hampered by stagnant water, fresh rains, and blocked roads. Priority needs are health, food, shelter, and access to safe drinking water. There is a shortage of essential medicines, notably vaccinations (WHO, 23/09/2014). Waterborne diseases have broken out in Bajwat, Head Marala, Chaprar, and Pasrur (DAWN, 11/09/2014).
On 4 October, Pakistan barred activists from taking relief goods to the border with India-administered Kashmir, where delays in aid have created widespread anger among residents (AFP, 04/10/2014). In August, Peshawar and tribal areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were hit by severe rain and hailstorms, inundating low-lying areas. 31 people were killed and 130 injured (Government; DAWN, 22/08/2014).
Over the past three years, the monsoon region has shifted 100km west. As a result, heavy and unpredicted rainfall has occurred in Pakistan, especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, causing massive destruction (Government, 20/08/2014).
As of 5 September, 961,000 people (74% women and children) have been displaced by conflict in NWA to FATA, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and other areas of Pakistan, adding up to the 930,000 pre-existing IDPs in the two former provinces (mainly residing outside camps in Peshawar, Dera Ismail Khan, and Koha) (OCHA, 12/09/2014; UNHCR, 09/06/2014). 40% of the population in NWA remained despite army operations and is now far from basic services and humanitarian support due to limited access (IRIN, 25/09/2014).
Most IDPs from NWA have taken refuge in overcrowded public buildings in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (UNDP, 14/07/2014; ECHO, 01/08/2014). As of October, as schools re-opened, 940 schools across Bannu, Barat and Lakki Marwat had been vacated. IDPs have moved to host families, unused schools, or to Baka Khel camp (USAID, 04/10/2014).
58% of IDPs from NWA need food assistance, 95% lack income, and many require emergency livestock support (USAID, 04/10/2014). Temporary shelter construction assistance in overcrowded host communities, better protection monitoring, and emergency education services for 82,000 displaced children are also required (OCHA, 12/09/2014).
Overall, 186,000 IDPs do not have access to safe drinking water, more than 128,000 remain in need of improved sanitation facilities, and approximately 256,000 people require critical hygiene services (USAID, 04/10/2014).
Around 100,000 people have returned to FATA since November 2013, and 270,000 people are expected to return to FATA over the year, despite recent violence provoking new displacement (OCHA, 19/08/2014). Some 4,690 families returned to Tirah Valley in May and 407 families returned to Upper Kurram in June 2014 (UNHCR, 30/06/2014). Most are returning to damaged houses and disrupted livelihoods. Restoration of basic social services and livelihood support are vital to ensure sustainable returns (OCHA, 20/05/2014).
Refugees in Pakistan
There are an estimated 2.9 million Afghan refugees and undocumented migrants in Pakistan, although the exact number is difficult to ascertain (OCHA, 22/04/2014). Most are in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, and most require humanitarian assistance (UNHCR/IOM, 31/12/2013). At least 1.6 million Afghan refugees are in need. National media report that the presence of Afghan refugees is triggering tensions with host communities.
Refugees in Afghanistan
As of 15 October, nearly 244,200 Pakistanis and Afghan returnees (33,000 families) had fled conflict in North Waziristan to Khost and Paktika provinces in Afghanistan (UNHCR, 15/10/2014).
Distribution points for food and NFIs have been established in Bannu, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Most IDPs in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA are relying on negative coping strategies or income support (Detailed Food Security Assessment, Food Security Cluster). Increasing demand for food and NFIs has also resulted in massive inflation, which further aggravates the food security situation.
Only 5% of IDP families from NWA have a source of income (OCHA, 15/08/2014).
Health and Nutrition
An estimated 1.21 million people are in need of basic health services and quality maternal and child health services. The influx of IDPs has severely strained health facilities and the lack of medical staff to provide care for displaced women is a critical challenge (UN Population Fund, 03/10/2014).
Stagnant waters from the September floods but also overcrowding and high temperatures have increased the risk of waterborne disease (PI, 01/10/2014, WHO, 08/07/2014).
Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever (CCHF)
So far in 2014, 68 cases (25 laboratory confirmed), including 20 deaths, have been reported, 31 in Balochistan and 21 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (WHO, 13/08/2014). CCHF is endemic in Pakistan but the virus is most active between June and September (WHO, 25/07/2014).
455 dengue cases have been reported in Punjab in 2014, with 29 new cases diagnosed on 19 October. The most affected districts are Rawalpindi, Sheikhupura, and Lahore (USAID, 19/10/2014). In Rawalpindi, four union councils have been declared high-risk, with 75 new cases during the first week of October (DAWN, 05/10/2014).
Over 1.8 million cases of acute diarrhoea were reported 29 December–9 August. Another 29,573 cases of bloody diarrhoea were reported in the same period (WHO, 13/08/2014).
In April, an estimated 17,000 children had SAM and 55,000 MAM (04/2014). By May, more than 200 people had died from malnutrition-related causes in 2014 (OCHA, 09/05/2014). Over 46,000 pregnant and lactating women are priorities for nutrition assistance. Many are in Tharparkar district, Sindh province. In the remote Neelum Valley, an estimated 21% of children are acutely malnourished, well above the national average of 15%, which is already at the emergency threshold (WFP, 12/2013).
As of 19 October, 206 wild polio cases had been reported in 2014 in Pakistan, from FATA, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, Balochistan, and Punjab, surpassing the previous record of 199 in 2000 (Global Polio Eradication Initiative, 20/10/2014).
Attacks on polio vaccination teams have killed 59 people since December 2012, including health workers and police providing security (AFP, 02/10/2014).
87% of displaced families are not treating water at home (OCHA, 15/08/2014). An estimated 690,000 people – largely IDPs and returnees in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and FATA – urgently need assistance in accessing safe drinking water.
Hygiene conditions among the newly displaced are very poor, and the probability of WASH-related disease outbreaks is rising (OCHA, 07/08/2014). 40% of displaced families in Bannu are not using latrine facilities and practise open defecation (OCHA, 15/08/2014).
Inadequate shelter services, overcrowding, harsh weather conditions, and high rental charges are key challenges for displaced families (OCHA, 15/08/2014).
Educational supplies are a major gap in education response, such as school tents, stationery, and other teaching and learning materials.
At least 86,000 students from government schools in NWA are affected by the current military operations. The number of students enrolled in private schools is unknown. Many educational institutions are occupied by military or security forces (DAWN, 15/07/2014).
An estimated 1.08 million people are in need of awareness-raising protection activities. This group largely consists of IDPs and returnees in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA. Women, children, the disabled, and the elderly need referral assistance and specialised protection in displacement and returnee areas (OCHA, 20/02/2014).
421 incidents of violence involving 534 women and girls were reported in Karachi province during the third quarter of the year (DAWN, 11/10/2014).
In areas where the Taliban is active, over 500 girls’ schools have been bombed. In the south and southwest of the country, ethnic violence continues to curtail women’s freedom of movement.
17 October: The Ebola outbreak in Senegal in officially over (WHO).
- 340,000 children are estimated to suffer from acute malnutrition, 79,000 from severe acute malnutrition, and 261,000 from moderate acute malnutrition (UNICEF, 03/2014).
Although Senegal enjoys a reputation for stability in a largely volatile region, the country has been unable to resolve the 30-year conflict in the coastal Casamance area, where separatist movements continue to oppose authorities. Attempts to restart talks in March 2013 failed.
On 25 February 2014, the Community of Sant'Egidio, which is mediating the conflict, announced that progress had been made in discussions between the Senegalese authorities and the Movement of Democratic Forces of Casamance (MFDC), with confidence-building measures agreed. Senegalese authorities agreed to withdraw an international arrest warrant against the leader of the separatist movement, Salif Sadio. MFDC has not, however, agreed on any demining. On 30 April, Salif Sadio declared a unilateral ceasefire as proof of engagement in the peace process.
Humanitarian Context and Needs
As of 30 September, there were 14,000 refugees in Senegal, as well as 2,000 IDPs and returnees (OCHA, 30/09/2014).
An estimated 2.6 million people are food insecure as of 30 September (OCHA, 30/09/2014).
Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity levels are likely to persist due to strained crop development (FEWSNET, 30/09/2014).
Agriculture and Markets
In the northern and central parts of Senegal, lack of rains over May–September has negatively impacted cultivation. Cereal production decreased by 17%, resulting in high food prices (OCHA, 30/09/2014). Despite improved weather prospects for October, crop development is likely to remain strained (FEWSNET, 30/09/2014).
As a result of the closure of borders and markets due to Ebola containment measures, trade volumes have fallen 50% below last year’s levels, leading to a 40% and 50% increase in the prices of palm oil and coffee, respectively, in less than four weeks. The slowdown in economic activity is likely to have a significant impact on food security in all Ebola-affected countries (WFP, 15/09/2014).
Sahel Food Crisis: Regional Overview
24.7 million people in the Sahel (Burkina Faso, north Cameroon, Chad, the Gambia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, north Nigeria, and Senegal) are suffering from food insecurity as of 30 September (OCHA, 07/10/2014). Food insecurity in 2014 has risen dramatically compared to 2013, when 11.3 million people had inadequate food (OCHA, 03/02/2014).
Health and Nutrition
The Ebola outbreak in Senegal in officially over, now that the 42 days-active surveillance period passed without new cases detected (WHO, 14/10/2014). On 29 August, a 21-year-old student of Guinea was tested positive for Ebola. The student is now cured (Reuters, 22/09/2014).
Nonetheless, the porous borders between Senegal and Guinea and trade flows via regular weekly markets constitute a serious risk to the spread of Ebola to the country (Red Cross, 29/09/2014).
More than two million people, or 15% of the population, including 350,000 chronic carriers, have hepatitis B, due to untimely vaccination, prohibitive treatment costs, and lack of universal screening to curb transmissions (IRIN, 08/05/2014).
340,000 children are estimated to suffer from acute malnutrition, including 79,000 from severe acute malnutrition. These figures are an increase on 2013, when 63,323 SAM and 255,675 MAM cases were reported (2014 Humanitarian Needs Overview).
Ukraine Country Analysis
11 October: Shelling is reporting daily, and has caused more than 300 deaths since the ceasefire was signed on 5 September, according to the UN (international media).
- 5.1 million people live in areas directly affected by the conflict and are in need of protection (OCHA, 13/09/2014). Winterisation is an urgent priority (UNHCR, 23/09/2014; OCHA, 03/10/2014).
- Access to humanitarian aid in conflict areas is reportedly near to impossible (OCHA, 19/09/2014).
- Worsening tuberculosis epidemic in eastern Ukraine, according to doctors (AFP, 18/08/2014). 340,000 people in need of medicine and medical supplies (WHO, 09/09/2014).
- Competition over scarce resources and fatigue among host communities have increased tensions (OCHA, 09/08/2014).
About 402,000 people have been displaced, while continued fighting and lack of transportation make it difficult for civilians to escape contested areas. The capacity of absorption within host communities has been weakening and there is a critical need of winterized shelter.
Medical supplies are lacking and health services limited. The supply of fresh food supply is limited in some contested cities. Gas, water and electricity facilities in the east have been damaged or destroyed, as well as transportation infrastructure. The human rights situation is deteriorating as a consequence of the continued instability and violence.
The Prime Minister has signed a resolution to establish a centralised system to register IDPs (OCHA, 03/10/2014).
Parliament ratified the EU Association Agreement on the same day and voted in favour of three years’ limited self-rule of some areas of Donetsk and Luhansk. The law authorises the use of Russian in state institutions within the opposition-held Luhansk and Donetsk regions, and the holding of local elections on 7 December. Amnesty was also granted to all non-government forces taking part in the fighting, on condition that they turn in their weapons (international media, 16/09/2014). These two bills need to be signed by the President to enter into force (OHCHR, 08/10/2014).
On 26 August, Ukrainian President Poroshenko dissolved parliament and called for elections to be held on 26 October (OCHA, 29/08/2014; 10/10/2014).
As of 8 October, 3,682 people had been killed in eastern Ukraine with 8,871 people confirmed wounded by the conflict (OCHA, 10/10/2014). The death toll could be significantly higher, according to the UN, since access to the conflict-affected areas is restricted and reliable information is difficult to collect (OCHA, 13/09/2014; UN, 08/09/2014).
Serious violations of the 5 September ceasefire are reported daily and fighting and indiscriminate shelling have intensified in parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions (OCHA, 03/10/2014). More than 300 people have died since the ceasefire was signed, according to the UN (international media, 11/10/2014). The ceasefire may not be holding, but according to local NGOs, it has reduced the scale of attacks (international media, 05/10/2014).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
5.1 million people live in areas directly affected by the conflict and are in need of protection as of 12 September (OCHA, 29/08/2014). There are severe needs for water, electricity, shelter and healthcare, far outweighing the response (OCHA, 28/09/2014; 10/10/2014). The humanitarian situation in the areas controlled by armed groups remains precarious, especially in the Luhansk region (OHCHR, 08/10/2014).
In Donetsk, limited amounts of humanitarian aid has been delivered, but shelling in Donetsk and Luhansk regions continues to impede access. The presence of humanitarian actors is increasing, but bureaucratic, security and financial restrictions are impeding response at the scale required (OCHA, 19/09/2014).
On 2 October, an ICRC delegate was killed in Donetsk due to indiscriminate shelling (ICRC 02/10/2014).
Road transportation from Ukraine to Crimea experiences many border checks by Crimean authorities and long delays at the ferry crossing in Kerch. Since 15 July, international shipping has been prohibited from the ports of Evpatoria, Kerch, Sevastopol, Theodosia, and Yalta on the Crimea peninsula (GARD, 17/07/2014). Every day passengers travelling to and from Crimea are denied passage due to a lack of documentation (OSCE, 15/08/2014).
Displacement continues and safety and security are prime concerns (OCHA, 10/10/2014).
The IDP situation is a cause for major humanitarian alert. As of 10 October, about 402,000 IDPs are registered in Ukraine (OCHA, 10/10/2014). Unofficial estimates suggest that the number of IDPs could be higher, as there is no established centralised registration system (UN, 25/09/2014; UNHCR, 18/08/2014). Among the IDP population, two-thirds are reported to be women, as many men have stayed in conflict areas to protect their property (UNHCR, 23/09/2014).
Movements of the affected population from opposition-held areas to government-controlled areas have separated families and blurred the lines between IDPs and affected populations, making people more insecure (OCHA, 10/10/2014).
Most IDPs have left with few belongings, and need shelter, food, and other essential assistance. Tensions between IDPs and host communities are rising (IDMC, 15/08/2014). Multiple sources have reported pressure on IDPs to return to conflict areas (OCHA, 13/09/2014). NGOs report decreasing local volunteer response, and a lack of initiative and decision-making by local authorities to address IDP issues, particularly the rapid need for housing (OCHA, 28/09/2014). The absorption capacity within host communities has been weakening (OHCHR, 08/10/2014).
Around 15,000 IDPs have returned home to Slavyansk, according to the city administration, since government forces retook the area (UNHCR, 03/09/2014). Other have returned to Kramatorsk. Many are facing challenges due to damage to infrastructure, housing, businesses, industries (OCHA, 09/08/2014; 28/09/2014). Returnees need building materials (OCHA, 19/09/2014).
Refugees in Neighbouring Countries
As of 10 October, more than 427,000 people have fled to neighbouring countries. About 370,000 people have applied for temporary residence in Russia since the beginning of the year (OCHA, 03/10/2014; 10/10/2014). However, the UN and Russian authorities estimate that 875,000 Ukrainians have actually fled to Russia. Authorities on both sides of the Russia–Ukraine border appear to be preparing for a long-term population shift (international media, 03/10/2014).
In addition, an estimated 17,000 people are estimated to be displaced within Crimea (OCHA, 29/08/2014).
Food availability remains limited in Donetsk and Luhansk cities. The conflict and the approaching winter are having a significant negative impact on markets and the food supply chain (OCHA, 10/10/2014). With food prices tied to fuel prices, household food expenditures could significantly increase (OCHA, 28/09/2014; 03/10/2014).
The discontinuation in payment of salaries and social benefits to the affected population in opposition-held areas has resulted in lack of access to food and other commodities. Many IDPs can no longer afford to pay the rent (OCHA, 03/10/2014).
The conflict has already impacted Ukraine's economy, which is set to shrink 9% this year (international media, 19/09/2014). Inflation and rising prices add pressure to financially stressed IDPs (OCHA, 13/09/2014). More than 70% of Donbas businesses are closed and banks are not operating at full capacity in the affected areas (OCHA, 19/09/2014). As of 10 October, nearly 40,000 small and medium businesses in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions have ceased activity due to the fighting, leaving thousands of people without any income (OCHA, 10/10/2014).
Health and Nutrition
At the beginning of September at least 32 hospitals in Donbas region were reportedly not functioning, at least 45 hospitals have been destroyed or damaged; up to 80% of health workers are absent from the conflict area (OCHA 19/09/2014; 10/10/2014). There is an overall lack of health system coordination by the regional and local government. The resilience of local health facilities is at risk of failure if the number of IDPs increases (UNICEF, 23/09/2014). Low supply of fuel have prevented ambulances to respond, according to some NGOs (OHCHR, 08/10/2014).
340,000 people need medicine and medical supplies (WHO, 09/09/2014). Due to the national currency’s devaluation, the Ministry of Health may not be able to procure sufficient medicine and, unless an urgent solution is found, starting January 2015, Ukraine will not be able to cover needs for antiretroviral and TB drugs (OHCHR, 08/10/2014; OCHA, 03/10/2014).
There are critical supply shortages include vaccines and dialysis treatment, as well as treatment for diabetes, cancer and rare diseases, as well as provision for the special needs of the disabled (OCHA, 03/10/2014). Access to specialised care, including chronic non-communicable diseases, maternal and newborn care, and safe blood transfusion, remains very limited for residents of rural areas in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (OCHA, 10/10/2014).
Lack of security is preventing access to emergency and primary health services in Shahtersk, Snizhne, Yasinovataya (OCHA, 29/08/2014).
Due to low vaccine coverage rates, especially among children, there is a heightened risk of infectious disease outbreaks among IDPs and affected populations in conflict areas (UNICEF, 27/06/2014; OCHA, 05/08/2014).
Antiretroviral drugs are urgently needed in Kyiv, Volyn, Odesa, Mykolayiv and Kirovograd. Regional AIDS Centres in Donbas area are not operating or providing only limited services (UNICEF, 07/10/2014). Provision of health products for HIV testing is critical (OCHA, 10/10/2014).
Doctors are warning of a worsening tuberculosis epidemic in eastern Ukraine. 48,000 people are registered with the disease; however, one in four people with TB are not officially registered, according to WHO (AFP, 18/08/2014).
Shelter and NFIs
Winterisation is one of the urgent priorities, including the provision of warm blankets and winter clothes for IDPs (UNHCR, 23/09/2014). But there is a shortage of winter clothing, shoes, NFIs, medicine, hygiene kits and food items (OCHA, 28/09/2014).
Approximately 20% of IDPs, about 75,000 people, are believed to be staying in collective centres, which in many cases are old Soviet summer camps, sanatoria, and dormitories with cracked wooden windows, leaking roofs and no heating (IOM, 03/10/2014).
Many residents and IDPs residing in elderly centres in opposition-controlled areas are in urgent need of food, medicine, mattresses, and hygiene items (OCHA, 10/10/2014).
The lack of reliable energy supply over the winter is a serious concern (OCHA, 28/09/2014). 20% of needs for electricity are covered in Luhansk (OCHA, 03/10/2014). Already on 24 September, severe weather disrupted electricity and water in Mariupol and cut power in Crimea (ECHO, 24/09/2014). The storm has further worsened electricity and water supplies in many locations in Donbas.
Concerns remain about how to fund the temporary accommodation of IDPs, as some regional authorities are no longer able to accommodate IDPs (UNHCR, 23/09/2014). Due to lack of financial resources and facilities, Government coordination agencies often refuse free accommodation to IDPs (OCHA, 13/09/2014).
Water supplies are irregular in many parts of Donetsk and Luhansk. Dokuchaevsk, Volnovaha, and other eastern settlements have limited or no access to safe drinking water. Krasnoarmeyski district, in Donetsk region, reportedly has no water supply and repairs are not possible while insurgents control the reservoir. There has been no significant improvement to the water supply situation in Donetsk region; some parts still do not have water and people are digging shallow wells to cope with the shortage (UNICEF, 07/10/2014). Problems related to water supply also persist in several districts of Luhansk city (OCHA, 28/09/2014; 03/10/2014). At 19 September, water supply in Luhansk city had been disconnected for 46 days (OCHA, 19/09/2014). Diesel generators are needed to power water pumps and treatment units (OCHA, 28/09/2014).
Safe sanitation remains a priority in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts; temporary latrines and disinfection materials are urgently required (OCHA, 28/09/2014). Access to toilets and adequate sanitation facilities remains an issue since the sewage system is dysfunctional in Luhansk city (UNICEF, 07/10/2014).
Around 290 schools have been destroyed or damaged due to fighting (UNICEF, 08/09//2014).
On 1 October, authorities in opposition-held areas announced the beginning of the school year but the actual number of children attending school in those areas is unconfirmed (OCHA, 10/10/2014).
Armed groups have increasingly committed human rights abuses, including abduction, torture/ill-treatment, unlawful detention, execution and forced mobilisation of civilians, as well as the seizure and occupation of public buildings (OHCHR, 08/10/2014).
As of September, insurgent forces are detaining around 460 civilians on allegations of violating public order, and subjecting them to forced labour. Forced mobilisation and threats of the death penalty are being used by armed groups (OHCHR, 19/09/2014). From mid-April to 25 August, at least 1,000 people have been detained on suspicion of being militants and subversives (OHCHR, 08/10/2014).
Alleged torture and executions of detainees by armed groups and volunteer battalions continued to be reported but still require thorough verification (OHCHR, 08/10/2014).
Mines and ERW
Increasing reports of mines and unexploded ordnance have been reported in areas of Donetsk and Luhansk affected by conflict, with civilian deaths reported (UN, 19/08/2014).
An estimated 260,000 Roma live in Ukraine. In August, OCHA reported that the Roma population displaced from Donbas experiences access restrictions to government health and social services, as 40% do not have documentation (OCHA, 06/08/2014). Roma are afraid to be registered as IDPs, fearing persecution when they return (UNHCR, 05/08/2014). Limited awareness among the Roma concerning available assistance and insufficient outreach activities have exacerbated their vulnerability (OCHA, 10/10/2014).
In Crimea, Crimean Tatars and other pro-Ukraine figures have been forcibly disappeared or gone missing since May. On 6 October, a Crimean Tatar was found hanged (HRW, 07/10/2014).
Elderly people are particularly affected as many were left alone after their families fled. About 20,000 older people or people with disabilities have been left alone in Donetsk region and have no access to their pensions or food (UN, 29/08/2014).
Women face a series of specific protection challenges, including: prohibition from leaving conflict zones by partners; rape; forced domestic labour by insurgents; post-traumatic syndrome and possibility of violence in collective centres (OCHA, 19/09/2014).
Bangladesh Country Analysis
10 October: 10,000 people are estimated to have lost everything in the floods (Salvation Army).
- Bangladesh is considered one of the world’s most hazard-prone countries, and every year cyclones cause extensive damage and floods.
- 30,000 Rohingya Muslim refugees from Myanmar are in official camps, and some 300,000 are in unofficial camps or villages, where they receive little or no humanitarian assistance.
- Food insecurity is rising due to frequent natural disasters and civil unrest. An estimated 40% of the population is considered food insecure, and western areas are more affected.
- In 2013, 507 people died as a result of political violence, making it the deadliest year since the country's independence.
Longstanding tensions persist between Islamic groups and secular activists. Violence and protests erupted ahead of the January 2014 elections, which the AL went on to win.
Protests began in January 2013, over the trial and sentencing of senior political leaders from the main opposition party – the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) – and its Islamic allies for offences and crimes committed during the 1971 war of independence from Pakistan. Several leaders are still officially on trial. By the end of the year, the strikes – or hartals – had evolved into open showdowns between hundreds of thousands of supporters of the governing Awami League and BNP.
Aftermath of the January Elections
International observers declared the 2014 elections flawed and the BNP described them as a farce. The impasse between the two dominant parties is fuelling concerns about economic stagnation and further violence. International human rights organisations report that nearly 150 people were killed and thousands injured in election-related violence.
Following inter-religious violence between settlers and the indigenous population in Khagrachari, Chittagong, around 250 members of minority groups, who have been subject to similar violence in the recent past, have crossed the border to Tripura, India (OCHA, 09/06/2014).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
Needs in Bangladesh can be difficult to assess; the humanitarian impact of frequent low-profile events is chronically underreported.
In Lalmonirhat, five villages in Kaliganjupazila were submerged by water as a flood protection embankment broke down at Modanpur under Tuhbhandar union on 24 August (Prothom Alo, 24/08/2014). In many places, embankments are in poor shape due to lack of proper maintenance, and sluices and regulators no longer function properly (INTRAC, 2010).
In mid-September, almost 3 million people had been reported affected by flooding across 20 districts; 340,000 people were displaced, and 34,000 houses completely destroyed. Humanitarian actors have reported 59 deaths and 447 injured (Oxfam, 15/09/2014; IFRC, 08/09/2014, 14/09/2014, 15/09/2014). 1.87 million of those affected are located in nine districts in the northwest (WFP, 30/09/2014). Nilphamari, Lalmonirhat, Kurigram, Rangpur, Gaibandha, Jamalpur, Sirajgonj (northwest), Sunamjon and Sylhet (northeast) are severely hit (ECHO, 25/08/2014).
On 24 September, flash floods affected 70,000 people in the district of Netrokona, northeastern Bangladesh (OCHA, 29/09/2014). Local media indicate that thousands of houses were submerged (Dhaka Tribune, 26/09/2014).
10,000 people are estimated to have lost everything in the floods (Salvation Army, 10/10/2014). Women, children, the elderly, people with disabilities, and the extreme poor are among the most vulnerable. Children in makeshift shelters are less likely to receive assistance than children in flood shelters (SC 2006, WFP, 30/09/2014).
Most critical needs include access to safe drinking water, sanitation facilities, food and shelter. In addition, the affected need cooking facilities, safe emergency shelters, and medicines for water-borne illnesses (Muslim Aid, 18/08/2014, Dhaka Tribune, 26/09/2014).
Households in Bhola, Patuakhali and Barguna had already been affected by flooding in July (OCHA, 21/07/2014). Bhola and Patuakhali districts were affected by tropical storm Mahasen in May (WFP, FAO, Food Security Cluster, 20/05/2014).
IDPs make up 0.2% of the population. Most were displaced by violence in the 1970s. The 280,000 IDPs estimated to be in Bangladesh in 2007 are unlikely to have returned, integrated, or settled elsewhere in the country given persistent tensions and fighting (IDMC, 13/05/2014).
Rohingya Muslim Refugees
300,000 Rohingya from Myanmar – even more according to local media – are in unofficial camps or with host communities and receive little or no humanitarian assistance. As of September 2013, an estimated 30,000 Rohingya Muslims were officially registered and lived in formal camps, where the Government allows only UNHCR and humanitarian organisations to assist refugees (humanitarian partners). On 24 March, the Governance and Social Development Resource Centre (GSDRC) stated that the Government had restricted aid to registered refugees living in official camps. GSDRC indicated that conditions in unofficial camps are dire: overcrowded, lacking clean water and sanitation, with poor shelter, health and nutrition, and human rights abuses. New refugees cannot register with the Government or UNHCR and cannot enter official camps. The majority of Rohingya are denied refugee status by Bangladeshi authorities.
The Rohingya crisis is regional, with a large number in Thailand, Malaysia, India, Indonesia, and Australia (ECHO, 21/05/2014).
Flood-affected have been reported as suffering from an acute food crisis (ECHO, 25/08/2014).
Around 40% of the population is food insecure, especially in western parts of the country. The lingering effects of natural disasters, violent demonstrations, and other local problems have increased the food insecurity of a large number of households. Relatively high domestic rice prices are also limiting low-income groups’ access to food (FAO, 16/06/2014).
Agriculture and Markets
The floods have meant loss of household food stocks and damaged rice crops. Small-scale and marginal farmers, as well as day labourers, appear most impacted by food insecurity caused by the flooding (WFP, 15/10/2014).
Health and Nutrition
Flooding has increased the risk of waterborne disease. At end August, most of those affected had not been able to reach government health facilities (Bangladesh Red Crescent Society, 25/08/2014).
As reported by ECHO in late February, an estimated 500,000 Bangladeshi children suffer from severe malnutrition annually. Among children under five, 13.5% are acutely malnourished, and 3.4% suffer from severe acute malnutrition.
Access to safe drinking water has been the main concern for the flood-affected, according to humanitarian actors on the ground. In some cases, the shortage has meant that some communities have been using contaminated water. Numerous hand tube wells are contaminated by flood waters (BRCS, 25/08/2014).
Open defecation and polluted waters have greatly increased the risk of diarrhoea and water-borne diseases among flood victims. In Kurigram, floods have immersed latrines, causing wastewater to contaminate homes, lands and wells (Terre des Hommes, 23/09/2014).
Thousands of houses have been either washed away or seriously damaged by flooding. Houses in the area are typically built on mud platforms (or plinths), which can be damaged and destroyed by severe flooding.
The displaced have moved to whatever high ground they can find and are staying in makeshift or temporary shelters. These arrangements offer limited privacy, poor protection from the elements, and inadequate or no sanitation. Living conditions are likely to worsen if the rain continues. (BRCS, 25/08/2014).
More than 300 schools in flood-affected areas have been shut (TRUST, 26/08/2014).
Flood shelters have inadequate WASH facilities (SC 2006). Past disasters have found that this poses risks to women and adolescent girls, who resort to a range of detrimental practices to avoid exposure.
Legal Status of Refugees
On 24 March, GSDRC reported that unregistered status means that refugees who have been victims of violence have no legal recourse. Incidents of domestic and sexual violence have been increasing around Rohingya settlements. Unregistered female refugees are especially vulnerable to sexual and physical attacks. Many female refugees are forced into illegal activities as a survival mechanism or sell their children into domestic labour, putting them at risk of abuse and arrest.
No significant developments this week, 15/10/2014. Last update 08/10/2014.
- 325,000 affected by heavy rainfall and flooding across most of Bolivia (Government, WFP, and OCHA, 06/2014).
- Bolivia is prone to natural disasters including earthquakes, floods, and droughts. The 2013 drought and severe frost affected over 340,000 people and damaged 87,000 hectares of crops (Government).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
A series of natural disasters has affected Bolivia since the beginning of the rainy season in October 2013 and have had a severe impact on livelihoods and food security.
On 1 October, a 4.9 magnitude earthquake, with more than 30 aftershocks, affected over 500 people in three districts of La Paz: Irupana, Cajuata, and Cairoma. Those affected were evacuated and remain in shelters (OCHA, 07/10/2014). Some houses have been destroyed and others are at high risk of collapse (La Razon, 06/10/2014).
Heavy Rainfall and Floods
At 24 September 146 out of 339 communities were still affected by the flooding of the last rainy season. On 25 September, 11 districts north of La Paz were under a state of emergency (Government).
As of 2 June, an estimated 325,000 people had been affected in Bolivia’s Amazon valleys, lowlands, and plains during the October–March rains (OCHA). The floods caused the collapse of around 2,000 homes, the destruction of 63,000 hectares of arable land, and the death of 150,000 livestock (ACT Alliance, 24/09/2014). Officials estimate that agriculture is the primary income-generating activity of 40% of affected families. This has been the worst flooding in the last 60 years (ACT Alliance, 24/09/2014).
In July, the nutritional status of flood-affected families in the departments of Pando, Beni, La Paz and Cochabamba was deteriorating, according to preliminary results of the Emergency Food Security Assessment (WFP, 25/07/2014).
According to FAO on 27 February, livestock is expected to be the most affected by the rains. Estimates indicate that close to 63,000 hectares of crops, including rice, maize, and cassava, have been negatively impacted. Despite losses in the department of Beni, prospects for 2014’s de verano season are favourable, since the main cereal-producing departments of Santa Cruz, La Paz, and Cochabamba, were less severely affected and the abundant rains may have benefited the developing crops in some places.
The flood-affected are suffering from gastrointestinal infections, respiratory infections, and skin diseases; pregnant women and children are most affected (ACT Alliance, 24/09/2014).
Cambodia Country Analysis
No significant developments this week, 14/10/2014. Last update 02/09/2014.
In January, following a two-week dispute and strikes over pay, government security forces launched a violent crackdown on garment factory workers and on a camp of anti-government demonstrators. The military police reportedly opened fire on the workers protesting outside a factory in Phnom Penh, killing five people and wounding at least 20. Following the crackdown, the UN human rights agency urged Cambodia to launch an investigation into the "disproportionate" use of force by security forces. The latest series of demonstrations followed similar events in December.
Humanitarian Context and Needs
As of 20 August, heavy seasonal rain has caused flooding along the major river systems. 45 people have been killed and over 80,000 people (16,000 families) affected. Water levels are already reported to be receding (OCHA, 25/08/2014).
Over 1.7 million people, more than 10% of the country’s population, were affected by weeks of extensive flooding in September–October 2013, which hit 20 of 24 provinces.
Côte d'Ivoire Country Analysis
No significant developments this week, 16/10/2014. Last update: 07/10/2014.
- 3.13 million people in Côte d’Ivoire do not have access to potable water and sanitation (OCHA 12/2013).
- In the region of Zanzan, on the eastern border with Burkina Faso and Ghana, 60% of the population live below the poverty line and 75% lack access to safe drinking water (UNICEF).
- Agricultural production is still impacted by over a decade of civil unrest.
On 11 August, the new Electoral Commission, responsible for the election scheduled for October 2015, was officially established (AFP, 11/08/2014).
As the 2015 election approaches, attempts to unite the opposition parties into one common front have faced delays and obstacles. Five of the 11 invited parties have declined to sign the founding document proposed by the Ivorian Popular Front (FPI), accusing it of consistently refusing to join other common opposition efforts developed by the Permanent Framework for Dialogue over the past two years.
A framework of direct dialogue was initiated over a year ago between the Government and the FPI: the two sides met for the first time in five months in January. Tensions date back to the 2010-2011 crisis, and remain strained due to the FPI’s position that the current President Ouattara is not eligible to put himself forward for the 2015 election.
National Reconciliation Process
On 30 September, public testimonies to the truth and reconciliation commission have ended after three weeks of hearings. However, insufficient broadcasting meant they did not have the expected impact on the national peacebuilding process (AFP, 30/09/2014). The Commission was created in 2011, and its initial two-year mandate was extended to early 2015. Investigations are yet to be carried out.
In February, the Ivorian Government released 70 senior army officers and politicians who had been detained for crimes including murder, kidnapping, and corruption. Critics of President Ouattara’s Government have expressed concern that such political compromises undermine the authority and independence of the judiciary.
A UN human rights report indicated in January the security situation remains fragile. A large number of ex-fighters have not yet benefited from disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) programmes. In addition, large quantities of illicit arms are still circulating in the country.
Several violent incidents have taken place on the border with Liberia, with the UN and the Government often blaming allies of former President Gbagbo.
Humanitarian Context and Needs
The situation is slowly improving following the destruction and displacement of the 2010 election crisis. Needs are higher in the west, which was most affected. And in Zanzan, on the eastern border with Burkina Faso and Ghana, nearly 60% of the population live below the poverty line, and three-quarters of the population lack access to safe drinking water.
The presence of humanitarian organisations remains low in comparison with needs. UNICEF reports that the most pressing needs include child protection, access to water and health facilities, nutrition, education, and provision of birth certificates.
Humanitarian needs are pressing for 45,000 IDPs, and their host communities, in the west.
Ivorian Refugees in Neighbouring Countries
An estimated 70,730 Ivorian refugees still reside in neighbouring countries: 52,785 in Liberia, 8,461 in Ghana, and 6,170 in Guinea at end December 2013, according to UNHCR. This figure represents a significant decrease from 2011 (250,000) and 2012 (85,000).
The majority of Ivorian refugees are unwilling to return until after the 2015 presidential election.
At least 23 people have been killed and over 7,000 people displaced by floods since the start of the rainy season in June. 5,000 people are living in primary schools (OCHA 22/07/2014).
The instability and unrest of the past decade has affected the food security and economic stability of the population, leaving households more vulnerable. This is largely due to repatriation/late return of farmer households, insecurity and population movements, delay/early end of rains, and crop loss due to flooding.
High risks of violence and abuse against children and women remain, with continued impunity of perpetrators. A recent report expressed deep concern over the increase in sexual violence and trivialisation of the offence, though comprehensive data is hard to come by.
Using Ivorian government statistics, UNHCR estimates that 700,000 people are stateless or of undetermined nationality. As of 3 October, only about 25,000 had started a legal process to obtain Ivorian nationality. UNICEF estimates that there are another 2.8 million unregistered minors, which stands for one-quarter of under 18s in the country (AFP, 03/10/2014). Abandoned children are not covered by national legislation and do not have Ivorian citizenship.
Access to basic rights remains problematic for people who lack proper documentation. Vital records and documents were lost and destroyed during the 2002 civil war and the post-election crisis of 2010–2011.
13 October: 1.2 million people have been affected by the drought, according to the latest assessment (Prensa Libre).
3 October: The state of calamity following the 7 July earthquake has been prolonged for 30 days to monitor the consequences (Prensa Libre).
- 3.5 million people are estimated to be food insecure (UN, 28/08/2014).
- 11,000 cases of acute malnutrition have been recorded among under-fives in Guatemala in 2014, as of 6 September (Ministry of Health cited by UN, 25/09/2014).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
On 23 September, the Government prolonged its state of emergency for 30 days to monitor the consequences of the drought in the 16 affected departments (Government, 23/09/2014). 1.2 million people have been affected according to the latest assessment (Prensa Libre, 13/10/2014). 944,000 people in the Dry Corridor are particularly affected, being highly dependent on subsistence farming (ACT Alliance, 15/10/2014).
73% of the country’s territory is affected (UN Country Team, 28/08/2014). The departments affected are Jutiapa, Jalapa, Santa Rosa, Zacapa, El Progreso, Chiquimula, and Baja Verapaz in the Dry Corridor; and Quiché, Huehuetenango, Retalhuleu, Totonicapán, Sololá, San Marcos, Suchitepéquez, Chimaltenango and Guatemala (Siglo XXI, 02/09/2014).
The Government has appealed for international help to deal with the loss of crops (OCHA, 01/09/2014). 98% of harvests have been lost in Chiquimula, El Progreso and Zacapa (Government, 28/08/2014). 80% production losses were recorded for maize harvests and 63% for bean harvests (World Vision, 17/09/2014). 56% of affected communities have no possibility of planting (ACTED, 28/08/2014). 99,600 people are left with no income opportunities (Government, 11/09/2014).
The current crisis is preceded by two years of bad harvests and aggravated by the impact of reduced employment in the coffee bean sector, caused by the coffee leaf rust epidemic of the last two harvests (UN Country Team, 28/08/2014).
The drought is regional. Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador are also affected (Oxfam, 28/08/2014).
On 3 October, the state of calamity following the 7 July earthquake was prolonged for 30 days in order to monitor the consequences (Prensa Libre, 03/10/2014). By 25 July, 63,280 people had been affected, 9,885 homes damaged, and 6,730 people evacuated (UN, 25/07/2014). The earthquake struck off the coast of the Mexican state of Chiapas, 50km from the border with Guatemala (ECHO, 08/07/2014). Dozens of schools were damaged and roads were blocked in the Guatemalan departments of Quetzaltenango and San Marcos (Government of Guatemala, 05/08/2014).
Heavy rains have affected a total of 483,000 people and damaged 5,300 houses in 2014 as of 14 October (Siglo XXI, 14/10/2014).
On 30 September–1 October, 785 people had been affected by flooding in San Marcos, Suchitepéquez, and Zacapa, and a landslide in Huehuetenango (Government, 01/10/2014). On 27–28 September, heavy rains caused the overflow of Coyolate and Paz Rivers, affecting 2,325 people in Nueva Concepcion, Escuintla department and 462 in Moyuta, Jutiapa department (Government, 29/09/2014). 260 people were affected by floods in Chimaltenango department on 24 September (Prensa Libre, 24/09/2014).
Since the beginning of September, heavy rains caused repeated flooding and landslides in Petén, Guatemala and Suchitepéquez, affecting a total of 1,770 people (Government, 08/09/2014; 02/09/2014; OCHA, 01/09/2014). San Benito, Petén, took the heaviest toll with 1,120 people affected and a drainage collapse in mid-September; 39 houses were damaged and 20 wells contaminated (Government, 09/11/2014; 17/09/2014).
Heavy rains in Petén and Izabal departments in August had already affected 818 people and damaged 136 houses (Government, 25/08/2014).
In July heavy rains affected Alta Verapaz, Izabal, and Baja Verapaz. Alta Veralpaz was particularly affected: flooding in early August had affected 15,000 people and bridges were severely damaged following heavy rains in July (Government, 15/07/2014; 28/07/2014). As of 13 October, 2,500 residents remain cut off (Prensa Libre, 13/10/2014).
An estimated 3.5 million people (754,919 families) are food insecure (UN, 28/08/2014). Approximately 1.5 million people are estimated to have partially or completely lost their harvests and have reduced food reserves for the coming months (UN Country Team, 25/09/2014). Thousands of families have been forced to resort negative coping mechanisms, like reducing the number of meals per day or portion sizes, and selling family assets (ECHO, 11/10/2014).
Crisis conditions are expected to persist until October in El Progreso, San Rosa, Zacapa, Chiquimula, Jalapa and Jutiapa. Between November and December, food security will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in most of the country’s affected areas, an improvement due to prostrera harvests and the peak of labour demand. Highlands that do not harvest in this period will remain in Phase 3 (FEWSNET, 17/09/2014).
The coffee leaf rust epidemic, which began in 2012, is affecting the entire Central America region, and is one of the worst ever (International Coffee Organization). In Guatemala, some 70% of crops have been affected, corresponding to a loss of 100,000 jobs and a 15% drop in coffee output over the past two years (Save the Children, 29/09/2014).
The Dry Corridor normally provides 20% of national maize production, and recent estimates predict a 9% drop in national primera maize production compared to last year (FAO, 19/09/2014). Primera and postrera harvests will not cover the food consumption deficits of households suffering crop failures for the last two years and reduced incomes due to coffee leaf rust (FEWSNET, 05/2014).
Health and Nutrition
Provision of primary healthcare has been interrupted in rural areas of several municipalities due to budget limitations. Compulsory vaccination programmes, nutritional vigilance, and specific care for pregnant women and malnourished children have been interrupted (Acción contra la hambre, 30/09/2014).
49 cases of chikungunya have been confirmed since the virus was first detected on 13 August (PAHO, 10/10/2014).
At 12 October, the Food and Nutrition Secretariat had recorded 12,200 cases of acute malnutrition in 2014, which represents a 21% reduction compared to last year. Escuintla, Huehuetenango, Guatemala, Chique and Chiquimula departments have the highest acute malnutrition rates (Government, 12/10/2014). 126,000 children are at high risk of severe acute malnutrition (UN, 03/09/2014).
By 24 July, 58 children had died from causes related to malnutrition (Government of Guatemala, 24/07/2014). In Huehuetenango, 17 children under five had died of malnutrition in 2014 by 17 July. It is feared that this year’s figures will surpass those of 2013, when 25 children died (Prensa Libre, 17/07/2014).
14 October: Severe cyclonic storm HudHud made landfall in Andhra Pradesh, eastern India, on 12 October. 24 people have been killed, and thousands remain at risk due to flooding. 350,000 people were evacuated before the storm hits (GDACS, IDRC, AFP, AlertNet, Times of India).
11 October: Although tensions have diminished along the Line of Control in Kashmir, thousands of residents are still too afraid to return to their homes (Times of India).
10 October: A huge mudslide destroyed hundreds of households in Udhampur, in India-administered Kashmir (Reuters).
- Landslides and floods triggered by heavy monsoon rains have left 281 dead. At least 600,000 have been affected and 40,000 left homeless (Times of India 30/09/2014).
- The floods have caused extensive damage to livestock, water supply, livelihood, telecommunications and road accessibility, which has hampered relief and rescue operations (IFRC).
Kashmir is a disputed between the Government of India, the Government of Pakistan and Kashmiri insurgent groups, who since the Indo-Pakistan War have fought over control of the area. Pakistan controls the northwest portion, India controls the central and southern portion and Ladakh, and China controls the northeastern portion (Aksai Chin and Trans-Karakoram Tract). Although thousands have died as a result of this conflict, the situation has become less deadly in recent years. UNHCR-supported elections in 2008 resulted in the creation of a pro-India Jammu and Kashmir National Conference, which has now formed a state government.
On 27–28 August, 15,000 people fled gunfire and shelling near the Line of Control (LoC) between India and Pakistan, taking refuge in shelters in the Kashmir border. Most have since left the shelters, with 2,000 opting to remain (The Guardian, 28/08/2014). As of 8 October, the cross-border firing had claimed 12 lives, most of them civilians (AFP, 08/10/2014). Fighting at night has been steadily reduced and confined to a smaller area (AFP, 10/10/2014). On 11 October, local media reported that residents were too frightened to return to their homes (Times of India, 11/10/2014).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
Severe cyclonic storm HudHud made landfall on 12 October on India’s east coast, around the city of Visakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh. Sustained winds of approximately 200km/h, before moving inland and weakening, Hudhud affected north coastal Andra Pradesh, south Odisha and Chattisgarrh with strong winds, heavy rainfall and storm surge along the coasts (IFRC, ECDM, 13/10/2014). Large-scale precautionary measures and the evacuation of around 350,000 people before the onset helped avert a large humanitarian tragedy (AFP, 13–14/10/2014). By 14 October, 24 people had been killed in the states of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, with thousands still at risk due to flooding (AlertNet, 14/10/2014). Thousands of houses have been destroyed, and electricity lines and communication systems are down (AFP, 14/10/2014).
Floods in Assam and Meghalaya
Over 20 September–7 October, flash floods and landslides killed up to 95 people. Thousands remain stranded by floodwaters. 150,000 people have been displaced to 227 camps, 130,000 houses have been destroyed and over 87,000 hectares of crops are damaged (OCHA, 07/10/2014). At 26 September, the Brahmaputra River and its tributaries were still flowing above danger levels, and many areas remained inaccessible (ECHO, 26/09/2014).
Floods in Jammu and Kashmir
1,949,790 people have been directly affected by flooding, including 543,379 displaced, 67,934 left homeless and 110,000 evacuated (Caritas India, 25/09/2014). As of 30 September, landslides and floods triggered by heavy monsoon rains have left close to 281 dead and 29 missing (OCHA, 15/09/2014; Times of India, 30/09/2014). On 10 October, reports suggest a huge mudslide destroyed hundreds of households in Udhampur (Reuters, 10/10/2014).
The most affected areas are Srinagar, Anantnag, Baramulla, Pulwama, Ganderbal, Kulgam, Budgam, Rajuri, Poonch and Reasi (Corporate Disaster Resource Network, 09/09/2014). Around 137 camps in the Kashmir valley are assisting over 100,000 people (OCHA, 15/09/2014). The water has now started to recede, and work is concentrating on pumping the stagnant water to prevent the spread of disease (AFP, 17/09/2014). The Prime Minister declared a national emergency on 7 September (Sphere India, 12/09/2014).
Major parts of Srinagar were completely submerged (IFRC, 08/09/2014). The floods have swept away the houses of more than 30% of the population living along the river’s path. (SEEDS 08/09/2014). Except for connectivity between Srinagar and north Kashmir's Ganderbal district, all other districts of the valley – including Anantnag, Pulwama, Kulgam, Shopian, Badgam, Baramulla, and Bandipora – were cut off (Spehere India, 23/09/2014).
On 4 October, Pakistani authorities barred actors from delivering goods intended for flood victims in India-administered Kashmir (AFP, 04/10/2014).
Late September, around 10–15 villages were still inaccessible in Assam and Meghalaya, including Lilehar, Goripura and Bandarpore (Caritas India, 25/09/2014).
People in flooded areas are receiving limited food from neighbouring villages and community groups (Caritas India, 25/09/2014).
Many people affected by flooding are reporting severe gastroenteritis, and fear of an outbreak is high, as the population is vulnerable to waterborne disease (Times of India, 19/09/2014). Medicine and medical supplies are lacking (Times of India, 18/09/2014).
90% of hand pumps in flood-affected villages of Jammu and Kashmir are submerged, non-functional and have muddy water, and piped water is not functional due to electricity failure (Caritas India, 25/09/2014).
Early October: According to trusted sources, an estimated 4,000–5,000 Syrians are waiting to enter Jordan on the eastern border with Syria. Conditions are reported to be poor, and women, children and the elderly make up 80% of the number.
- 619,400 Syrian refugees registered with UNHCR (09/10/2014); another 35,000 Iraqi refugees (UNHCR, 09/2014). The influx of refugees has placed enormous pressure on scarce water resources and public services, which has increased tensions between host communities and refugees.
- Operational and protection concerns are growing as the Government of Jordan is increasingly restricting the approval process for humanitarian projects, and infringing the basic protection of refugees, including their right to seek asylum and freedom of movement.
Jordan has remained politically stable despite spiralling crises in neighbouring Iraq and Syria and fears of infiltration by extremist groups, particularly Islamic State (IS). These concerns have increased since Jordan joined the US-led airstrikes against Islamic State (formerly known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, or ISIL) in late September. Thousands of Jordanians are reportedly fighting for opposition groups with links to Al Qaeda, particularly Al Nusra Front, as well as IS, despite the military’s tight control of cross-border movements.
In Jordan, the extremist movement in Jordan is generally dominated by groups supporting Al Qaeda and there are significant division among Jordanians who support IS (Al Jazeera 10/07/2014, AFP, 23/06/2014). In June, however, a small group demonstrated in Ma’an, southern Jordan, praising IS victories in Iraq and arrests of alleged IS supporters have increased (Petra News 22/09/2014).
Tensions between refugees and host communities remain a key concern and have manifested in localised protests, particularly around Za’atari refugee camp and the neighbouring town of Mafraq, as well as regular reports of discrimination and harassment of refugees. Key sources of tension include access to affordable housing and employment (REACH 09/2014)
Humanitarian Context and Needs
The influx of Syrian refugees has overwhelmed public services, particularly health and education, and placed major stress on Jordan’s scarce water supplies.
Since mid-2013, the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation has required aid agencies to include Jordanians as 30% of the beneficiary list of all aid programmes targeting Syrian refugees. More recently, aid agency projects have faced pressure to increase the proportion of Jordanians targeted for assistance to 50% (PI 06/2014). The requirement is viewed as an attempt to pressure international donors to channel more resources through government systems and institutions.
Throughout most of its history, Jordan has been host to vast numbers of refugees, beginning with the 1948 influx of Palestinian refugees and again in 1967. Today over 600,000 Syrian refugees are in Jordan.
Jordan hosts the third largest number of Syrian refugees, after Lebanon and Turkey. As of 8 October, about 619,400 Syrian refugees were registered with UNHCR in Jordan. Over 80% live in local communities, with the remainder in camps. (UNHCR 09/10/2014)
The Syrian refugee influx peaked with about 1,700 arriving each day in early 2013, but have since decreased significantly to less than 200 new arrivals, due to the Government’s border management policies.
According to trusted sources, in early October an estimated 4,000–5,000 Syrians are waiting to enter Jordan on the eastern border with Syria. Women, children, and the elderly are thought to make up around 80%. Some refugees who were allowed to enter reported that conditions on the Syrian side of the border were poor, with hot weather and sandstorms. Due to a lack of food availability, a black market has developed, with extremely high prices. Lack of latrines is forcing women to walk into the desert. There have been protests to be allowed to enter Jordan.
The number of Iraqi refugees continues to grow, with about 35,000 registered with UNHCR as of September, stretching registration and assistance capacities. UNHCR estimates that it is seeing about 100–150 new refugees each day, nearly matching the number of Syrian arrivals. As of 6 September, about 10,000 Iraqis have registered with UNHCR in 2014, about double the number registered throughout 2013. Like the earlier refugees, the majority of arrivals originate from Baghdad, although an increasing number are coming from IS-controlled areas of northern Iraq. Over 2,000 refugees and asylum seekers from Sudan, Somalia and other countries currently live in Jordan.
Refugees in Host Communities
Over 80% of Syrian refugees living outside camps are in the northern governorates of Amman, Irbid, Mafraq, and Zarqa. The priority need among refugees in host communities is consistently for cash to pay rent. Work permits are cost-prohibitive for refugees, although many Syrians, including children, work in agriculture and construction, despite protection risks that include arrest and detention.
About 20% of Syrians in northern governorates live in substandard accommodation, including garages, basements, chicken houses, and tents. Housing has become increasingly overcrowded as resources are depleted. In Mafraq, one of the poorest governorates, rental costs have quadrupled; refugees now outnumber local residents.
Over 15,000 refugees were residing in informal tented settlements in September, according to REACH/UNICEF assessments, representing a more than threefold increase since December 2013. Many of the refugees had left Za’atari camp due to conflicts in the camp with powerholders from Syria’s Dar’a governorate. While there is a threat of mass evictions, reliable sources indicate that the Jordanian authorities will refrain from a major crackdown due to the logistical challenges and negative attention.
Azraq camp in Zarqa governorate opened on 30 April. As of 29 September, nearly 15,000 refugees were registered by UNHCR in the camp. However, it is believed that only about half this number remains due to the harsh, hot, and windy climate, long distances to reach services, lack of electricity, and the camp’s isolation from livelihood opportunities. At full capacity, Azraq camp will be able to accommodate 130,000 refugees.
Za’atari is the second largest refugee camp in the world with about 80,000 residents, and the equivalent of a new city in Jordan. The lack of security in certain parts of the camp impedes access to services, particularly for women and girls. Security incidents and protests are frequent. Since the camp was established in 2012, at least 200,000 refugees have left for other urban centres through both official and unofficial channels. However, authorities have cracked down on unofficial departures in 2014.
About 4,000 Syrians live in the Emirates Jordan Camp (EJC), which has high living standards and extensive support, primarily from the UAE Red Crescent. Despite the improved living standards, a significant number of refugees have also left EJC camp for urban areas or to return to Syria.
Palestinian Refugees from Syria (PRS)
About 14,500 Palestinian refugees from Syria (PRS) have been recorded by UNRWA, which provides cash assistance for vulnerable PRS, who make up the vast majority of the PRS population in Jordan. About 200 PRS are held in the Cyber City facility, a former industrial complex, and are subject to heavy restrictions on movement (UNRWA 03/10/2014, HRW 04/07/2012).
Since late 2012, the Government has explicitly stated that it would not allow PRS to enter Jordan. Those who do enter are subject to a number of protection issues, including refoulement, the confiscation of documents and, for those with Jordanian citizenship, de-nationalisation (HRW 05/2014, HRW 04/07/2012).
WFP budget shortfalls for the regional Syrian response mean that refugees in host communities will face drastic food assistance cuts, with the voucher values reduced by more than half in October. In July, 74% of households cited WFP vouchers as their main source of income and 85% said they would not have sufficient access to food if WFP ceased assistance.
Jordan is the fourth most water-scarce country in the world and was already struggling to cope with the demands of its growing population prior to the Syrian crisis. The 2013/14 rains were only 77% of the long-term annual average, leading to a reduction in underground water reserves and a marked increase in underground water salinity in some well fields. The situation is expected to result in increased stress on existing water resources (UNICEF/REACH, 31/04/2014).
Trusted sources reported that there was an increase in refoulements of Syrian refugees in September by Jordanian authorities. Those with invalid documentation appeared to be targeted, including those found to be working without legal permission in host communities. The re-verification process conducted in Za’atari camp in early 2013, which aimed to ensure that complete biometric data is recorded for all registered refugees, also led to cases of refoulement by Jordanian authorities (PI 09/2014).
Evictions and Encampment
Since early 2014, the Government appears to be implementing a more rigorous approach to its encampment policy of Syrian refugees. On 14 July, Jordanian authorities notified UNHCR that it is not permitted to register refugees in urban areas if they have left camps unofficially, outside of the ‘bailout’ process. An estimated 200,000 Syrian refugees have left the camps unofficially, and without official documentation, refugees are unable to access public services or receive WFP food vouchers. In recent months, UNHCR has reported an increase in the number of refugees forcibly returned to Za’atari camp from host communities (CCCM 16/09/2014).
Women and Girls
The proportion of early marriages of Syrian girls (between 15 and 17 years of age) among all registered Syrian marriages increased from 12% in 2011 to 25% in 2013, according to Jordan’s sharia courts, which are responsible for legally registering marriages. In the first quarter of 2014, about 32% of all registered Syrian marriages were classified as early marriages. Both UNICEF and SCI reports found that early marriage was perceived as a form of security among Syrian refugees, given financial difficulties and the general sense of insecurity. Both agencies also reported that some Syrians used early marriage to circumnavigate government restrictions, such as the bailout rules in the camps (which require a close relative for sponsorship), as well as those which bar single males from entering Jordan. (UNICEF 07/2014)
An estimated 3,800 defectors from the Syrian armed forces are being held at military premises in Mafraq with no freedom of movement. The Government has not permitted UNHCR to conduct status determination for these people, although the ICRC has had access. (Al Monitor 08/2013)
No significant developments this week, 16/10/2014. Last update 01/09/2014.
- More than 100,000 people are in need of food assistance and over half a million people are at risk of food insecurity from June to December 2014 (Food and Nutrition Security working group, 22/07/2014).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
As of July, 117,600 people were affected by a food security crisis and around 557,900 people in rural areas were at risk of food insecurity (Food and Nutrition Security Working Group 22/07/2014).
The northern regions have been worst affected by the 2013 drought, with the largest number of food insecure in Kavango and Ohangwena. Households have employed negative coping strategies, including reducing the numbers of meals and increasing consumption of wild foods.
Agriculture and Markets
National cereal production was 136,680 metric tons over the 2013-2014 season, a significant increase from the 2012-2013 season’s harvest but still below the five-year average (OCHA, 26/09/2014). However, crop harvests as of 22 September were 20–50% lower than in the same period in 2013, and agricultural employment opportunities had been reduced by 40–65%. Agricultural assistance is needed for the areas most affected by the 2013 drought (OCHA, 22/09/2014).
Nepal Country Analysis
15 October: Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Hudhud led to the evacuation of 400,000 people. 17 people died and more than 100 are reported missing (International Business Times; Nepal News, 13/10/2014).
- 125,000 people affected by landslides and massive flooding in August caused by heavy monsoon rains in 21 districts (IFRC, 08/09/2014)
Humanitarian Context and Needs
The monsoon season had a normal start until early August, when heavy rains created massive landslides in Jure, Mankhaa village, Sindhupalchowk district, killing 134 people. Mid-August rains caused further flooding and several landslides in 21 districts, the majority of the in the mid-west. 225,000 people were affected, but the number decreased to 125,000 as waters receded (IFRC, 08/09/2014). As of 11 September, the death toll had risen to 180, with 17,000 still displaced (GDACS).
A two-kilometre dam created by August's landslides in Sindhupalchowk district, which blocked the Sunkhosi River, burst on 7 September, damaging homes as far as 6km downstream (National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 18/09/2014).
Tropical Cyclone HudHud
As of 13 October, the Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Hudhud has led to the evacuation of 400,000 people. Widespread destruction has been recorded (Nepal News, 13/10/2014). 17 people died in the Himalayan region and more than 100 are reported missing (International Business Times, 15/10/2014).
Damage from the landslide interrupted power supply in several hydropower plants in the valley, which led to a 9% decrease in electricity generating capacity and caused power shortages across the country, according to media reports (National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 18/09/2014, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, 04/08/2014; Nepali Times, 16/10/2014).
13 October: 77,058 people have been affected by rains in Zamboanga city and in Maguindanao and Lanao del Sur provinces, ARMM, since 7 October, 1,852 were evacuated to 14 centres (Government). Another 41,400 were affected in Sultan Kudarat, SOCCSKAGEN (OCHA).
9 October: Two people were killed and three others wounded in a grenade attack on a church in North Cotobato (AFP).
- Over 26,000 people remain displaced ten months after typhoon Haiyan struck and more than 2 million lack adequate shelter or housing (FAO, 09/10/2014).
- Thousands of people who fled fighting in Zamboanga in September 2013 are still displaced and being temporarily moved to the Masempla Transition Site, where minimum standards for WASH and basic services are currently unmet (OCHA, 01/10/2014).
- The Philippines is one of the most hazard-prone countries in the world, experiencing several large-scale natural hazards a year.
A series of natural disasters, most significantly Typhoon Haiyan in November 2013, has caused widespread damage across the Philippines and affected millions.
The overall political situation is relatively stable, and the Philippine authorities are finalising a peace deal with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). However, various breakaway armed groups continue the insurgency.
The disarmament process for Philippine Muslim opposition groups started on 27 September, with the decommissioning of a first batch of firearms expected by end of 2014. An independent body that will oversee the process has yet to be nominated (AFP, 28/09/2014).
Since October 2012, the Government has been engaged in finalising a lengthy peace process with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the country’s largest Muslim separatist group. Draft legislation for the 2014 March Comprehensive Agreement on Bangsamoro, which gives MILF ruling of a new autonomous region to replace the current Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) as a political group, was submitted to Congress in September (AFP, 10/09/2014). The deal excludes important stakeholders, including the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF), Abu Sayyaf and Khalifa Islmiyah Mindanao.
Splinter groups on Mindanao and smaller neighbouring islands continue their violent opposition against the Government. MILF has condemned extremist jihadists in Iraq and Syria, while Abu Sayyaf and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) have recently vowed allegiance to Islamic State (AFP, 28/08/2014).
Insurgents and Counterinsurgency Operations
Abu Sayyaf has about 300 armed fighters, split into several factions. On 28 July, 21 people were killed and 11 wounded by Abu Sayyaf militants in Talipao on Jolo island. Abu Sayyaf holds about ten hostages.
Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF)
On 11 September, two soldiers and an unknown number of BIFF fighters were killed during clashes in North Cotabato (AFP, 11/09/2014).
BIFF split from MILF in 2008. Thousands have been displaced by fighting between the Philippine army and BIFF in 2014 (IRIN, 22/07/2014; OCHA).
Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF)
Following 2013 September-October attacks by the MNLF – led by Nur Misuari – 202 people were killed, including over 160 militants, 324 were injured and 140,000 displaced (UNHCR). The attacks were seen as an attempt to sabotage peace talks between authorities and MILF.
New People’s Army
Sixteen people were killed in southern Mindanao on 15 July as a result of clashes between the New People’s Army and armed tribesmen (AFP, 15/07/2014).
On 9 October, two people were killed and three others wounded in a grenade attack on a church in Pikit in North Cotobato (AFP, 09/10/2014).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
Insecurity in parts of Mindanao and nearby areas is limiting humanitarian access. Concurrent natural disasters have hampered further aid delivery to affected populations.
At 13 October, rains since 7 October had affected 77,058 people (15,357 families) in Zamboanga city and in Maguindanao and Lanao del Sur provinces, ARMM. 1,852 (317 families) are in 14 evacuation centres (Government, 13/10/2014). Another 41,400 were affected in Sultan Kudarat municipality in SOCCSKAGEN (OCHA, 13/10/2014).
A hazardous eruption of Mayon Volcano is possible within weeks; alert Level 3 was declared on 15 September. An extended high-risk zone, over a 6–8km radius, affects Legazpi, Ligao, and Tabaco cities (OCHA, 01/10/2014). As of 13 October, 55,075 people (12,930 families) in Albay province had been moved to 48 evacuation centres (Government, 13/10/2014). There are concerns over camp management, coordination, WASH, and education (OCHA, 29/09/2014).
Tropical Storm Fung-Wung
At 30 September, Tropical Storm Fung-Wong (known locally as Mario) had affected more than two million people (453,190 families; 18 people dead and 16 injured) across 27 provinces, of which 8,293 were still in 35 evacuation centres. 11,590 houses were damaged and some areas in Pangasinan province were still flooded (Government, 30/09/2014).
At 23 September, flash floods and landslides caused by Typhoon Kalmaegi (known locally as Luis) on 14 September had affected more than 300,000 people (IFRC, 23/09/2014), 236,175 of whom were in Dagupan city. On 18 September, five Pangasinan towns were declared to be in a state of calamity (Government, 18/09/2014). As of 15 September, three people had been killed, three injured, and 17,633 people displaced (ECHO, 15/09/2014).
Floods in Mindanao
Late August, nearly 111,400 people were affected by flash floods (28,600 in Cotobato province, 3,770 in Cagayan de Oro and 79,000 in eastern Maguindanao, where landslides occurred) (ECHO, 04/09/2014; OCHA, 01/09/2014). Supplies for schools and health centres have been damaged (Government, 02/09/2014). 160,000 people had been affected by floods in Maguindanao and in some areas of North Cotabato mid-July (OCHA, 14/07/2014).
Over 1.6 million people were affected (97 dead, 460 injured and five missing) after Typhoon Rammasun hit the Philippines on 15–16 July. Nearly 120,000 houses were destroyed or damaged, along with crops and fisheries (OCHA, 22/07/2014). A state of calamity was declared in the regions of Cagayan Valley and Eastern Visayas (NDRRMC, 22/07/2014)
24,000 remain displaced ten months after Category 5 Typhoon Haiyan (locally known as Yolanda) made landfall on the east of the Philippines on 8 November 2013. 14.1 million people were affected, including 5.9 million in Central Visayas, 3.9 million in Eastern Visayas, 466,000 in MIMAROPA, and 70,000 in Caraga. 6,201 people were killed, over 28,600 injured, and over 550,000 houses destroyed (OCHA).
IDPs in Maguindanao
By late August more than 5,000 people were displaced in Sultan Sa Baronguis Mangui in Maguindanao, as a result of violent confrontations between two MILF armed groups (Government, 01/09/2014). In July and early August, 2,875 people were affected by conflict between an armed group and government forces in Maguindanao, of whom 1,150 were living in one evacuation centre (Government 09/08/2014).
In Basilan, ARMM, over 5,250 people were displaced as a result of fighting between Palaman and Sandiki groups (Government, 07/08/2014).
Disease outbreaks in the camps for people displaced by violence in Zamboanga have left about 160 evacuees dead; sanitary conditions are a major concern (OCHA, 09/09/2014). Around 40,000 remain homeless one year after fighting between an MNLF faction and the army (IRIN, 10/09/2014). 15,130 people were in evacuation centres and 9,790 in transit centres at the end of August (OCHA 02/09/2014).
Two of the largest camps in Zamboanga city will be closed between July and December. People are being temporarily moved to the Masempla transit site, until the construction of permanent housing is complete. Minimum standards for WASH and basic services are currently unmet; monsoon rains have damaged roads leading to the camp, affecting the delivery of clean water. Protection concerns remain critical, where women and children in particular are at risk of abuse and exploitation (OCHA, 01/10/2014).
Over 26,000 people remain displaced ten months after typhoon Haiyan struck and more than two million lack adequate shelter or housing (FAO, 09/10/2014). They are living in 64 sites, including tent cities and makeshift camps in flood-prone coastal areas. 1,710 displaced people from the hardest-hit communities of San Jose district in Central Luzon are in four transitional shelters in Tacloban (UNHCR, 13/10/2014).
With 89% of affected households still showing varying levels of typhoon-related damage, longer-term assistance such as supporting self-recovery, assisting households in no-build zones, helping with safer reconstruction, and enabling access to health care, schools, public transportation, and livelihood opportunities is required (UNHCR, 30/09/2014).
In Bohol, extensive shelter needs and repair of health and school facilities are required following the October 2013 earthquake (IFRC, 13/10/2014). All evacuation centres have now been closed and families are housed in 885 transitional shelters (UNICEF, 10/10/2014).
Health and Nutrition
High prices of main staple rice lead to food security concerns. A 4.7% increase on the September 2013 Consumer Price Index was witnessed in September (FAO, 10/10/14).
As of July, flooding had affected 45% of the planted area in Maguindanao, affecting over 5,000 farmers (OCHA, 07/07/2014). Agriculture, fisheries, and agricultural infrastructure were affected by July’s Typhoon Rammasun.
In 2014 in Mindanao, ten attacks on schools have been reported, affecting over 3,500 school children (UNICEF, 10/10/2014).
BIFF continues to actively recruit and train child soldiers.
No significant developments this week, 16/10/2014. Last update: 28/08/2014.
- 260,650 people are food insecure (OCHA 05/08/2014).
While the overall security situation in Rwanda is calm, the Rwandan Hutu Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), mostly active in DRC, are a source of insecurity in the region. The UN has denounced FDLR as being behind forced labour, harassment, beatings, and torture in eastern DRC (AFP, 06/08/2014).
On 30 May, a voluntary disarmament process for FDLR started under the auspices of MONUSCO, the African Union and the Southern African Development Community. On 2 July, several states from the region agreed to suspend military operations against the FDLR for six months in order to give them more time to lay down their arms. 305 former FDLR, now unarmed, have been living in DRC’s Kanyabayonga’s transit camp for the past three months, while 20 others were relocated in August due to space constraints (Radio Okapi, 05/09/2014).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
Refugees in Rwanda
Rwanda currently hosts 73,336 refugees, mainly from DRC (OCHA, 16/06/2014), located in Nyabiheke, Gihembe, Kiziba, and Kigeme (American Refugee Committee, 01/2014). There has been an influx of refugees from DRC since last year, prompting humanitarian actors to prepare a fifth refugee camp in Mugombwa. The monthly arrival rate is 2,600 (UNHCR 20/08/2004).
Rwandan Refugees in Neighbouring Countries
As of 1 September, there are 16,050 Rwandan refugees in Uganda, corresponding to 4% of the total refugee population in Uganda. Most Rwandan refugees are in Nakivale and Kampala (UNHCR, 23/09/2014).
As of 1 August, there are 1,395 Rwandan refugees in Kenya (UNHCR, 31/07/2014).
260,650 people are food insecure in Rwanda (OCHA, 05/08/2014).
The areas hardest hit by poor food availability are the eastern Semi-Arid Agro-Pastoral zone, the Bugesera Cassava zone, and the Eastern Congo Nile Highland Subsistence Farming zone. Poor households in these areas continue to experience the impact of Season B production deficits and earlier-than-normal food stock depletion, and will remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) level of food security for the October–December main lean season (FEWSNET, 02/10/2014).
Agriculture and Markets
Since the beginning of September, poor rains have led to deteriorating crops and compromised planting activities throughout Rwanda (Government, 08/10/2014).
A recent outbreak of disease affected more than 15,000 hectares of cassava crops in Kamonyi and Ruhango districts in Southern province (FEWSNET, 02/10/2014).
In some eastern agro-pastoral areas, where moisture deficits are significant, maize and bean outputs are 50% below average (FAO, 25/08/2014). Below-average cumulative rainfall from March to May was has affected pasture and water resources, especially in southern areas of the East and South provinces, with a deterioration in livestock conditions (FAO, 15/09/2014).
A fall in area planted due to the disease outbreak has caused a decline in demand for agricultural labour in food insecure areas, leading to migration (FEWSNET, 02/10/2014).
16 October: 2,800 people are affected by floods in Matara district, Southern region (Disaster Management Ministry).
- Inter-communal tensions between the Buddhist majority and the Muslim minority are rising again.
-1.69 million people across 14 districts are affected by drought.
- An estimated 770,000 people are food insecure due to consecutive droughts and floods.
Tensions are rising again between Buddhists and the Muslim minority, who make up 10% of the population. In May, Muslim legislators asked President Rajapakse to protect their minority community from what they described as Buddhist extremist elements.
In June, three Muslims were killed and 80 people were seriously injured in sectarian violence. Clashes took place in Aluthgama and Beruwela, two Muslim-majority towns on the Buddhist Sinhalese-dominated southern coast, during a protest march led by the hardline Buddhist group Bodu Bala Sena (BBS), or Buddhist Power Force.
Humanitarian Context and Needs
On 15 August a Sri Lankan court ordered authorities to stop deporting Pakistani asylum seekers following complaints that they were being forcibly sent home without having their claims properly assessed.
Since early June, national authorities have arrested and detained 328 refugees and asylum-seekers, and deported 183 of them to Pakistan and Afghanistan (UNHCR, 12/09/2014). Some 157 asylum seekers, including 84 Pakistanis, 71 Afghans, and two Iranians, remain in detention. UNHCR has requested that the Government stop deportations immediately and grant it access to asylum seekers in detention so that its staff can assess their needs for international protection (UNHCR 12/08/2014).
A 700% increase in the asylum seeker and refugee population has been observed since 2013, with 1,562 asylum seekers and 308 refugees by 30 June, according to a government report in early August, which also states that the majority of arrivals are driven by commercial human trafficking networks.
On 2 October, 400 people were affected by landslides and collapsed buildings after high winds and heavy rainfall hit the Southern region (OCHA, 07/10/2014). As of 16 October, 2,800 people have been affected by floods in Matara district, Southern region (Disaster Management Ministry, 16/10/2014).
Drought conditions are affecting more than 1.69 million people across 14 districts in six provinces (Disaster Management Ministry, 01/10/2014). About 900,000 people are in the Northern and Eastern provinces, regions that are generally poor, dependent on agriculture and lack strong coping mechanisms or infrastructure to withstand the impact of natural disasters (Inter Press Service, 29/09/2014). Families are suffering shortages of water for domestic and agricultural use in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Hambantota, Puttalam, Mannar, Vavuniya, Moneragala, Batticaloa, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Killinochchi, Jaffna, Kurunegala, and Ampara districts.
The December-February northeast monsoon maha which supplies water for agriculture across the key rice-producing areas of the country was delayed and brought the lowest reported precipitation (less than 40%) of the last three years (Dept. of Meteorology cited by OCHA, 29/08/2014)
As many as 770,000 people affected by the drought are food insecure (WFP, 01/10/2014). The areas most affected by food insecurity are Ampara and Moneragala in the east (WFP, 04/2014 and FAO, 05/2014).
In normal conditions, the proportion of households with poor or borderline food consumption in the northern provinces is estimated to be around 6%; in May, 18% of the population in affected areas had limited meal diversity and/or quantities (WFP, 04/2014 and FAO, 05/2014).
Agriculture and Markets
The southwest monsoon rains (beginning in May) have also been below average.
Overall, crop production has decreased by 42% compared to 2013 (Government of Sri Lanka 05/08/2014). The 2014 maha main season, reduced by drought, has brought estimated aggregate rice production for 2014 to 22% lower than last year and 12% below the previous five-year average (FAO, 02/10/201). 2014 yala rice output, accounting for 35% of annual production, is officially estimated 30% lower than last year due to a 29% contraction in area planted and dry weather at the start of the cropping season, particularly in the key north-central and eastern producing areas. The drought has resulted in the loss of about one-third of the paddy harvest in parts of the country (WFP, 01/10/2014).
Rice prices have increased 36% above 2013 levels due to the sharp contraction in this year’s production. Such an inflation is hampering access to food for low-income population, given that rice constitutes the main staple in the country (FAO, 02/10/2014).
On 27 August, the Defence Ministry announced that nearly 98% of landmines in the Northern and Eastern provinces have been cleared (Government, 28/08/2014).
13 October: 200 people have been displaced from Moyo district to Adjumani town, as a result of clashes that began mid-September (ACT).
10 October: 146 contacts of the patient with Marburg virus disease have been identified and isolated for a 21-day incubation period (WHO).
- 127,000 South Sudanese refugees have fled to Uganda since December 2013. 150,000 are expected by the end of 2014 (WFP, 01/10/2014).
- Cholera is endemic in the region, with an ongoing outbreak in Arua and Moyo districts (25/08/2014).
- 19.9% GAM among South Sudanese refugees. GAM is above 10% in Karamoja (OCHA, 05/08/2014; WFP, 06/2014).
- The Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), an Islamist group fighting the Ugandan government and based in the DRC–Uganda border region, has been accused of recruiting child soldiers, sexually abusing women and children, and carrying out attacks on peacekeepers.
In July, Ugandan troops killed 41 people in a clash with tribal gunmen on the border with DRC (AFP, 06/07/2014). Another 90 people were killed in subsequent attacks in the same area, presumed to be the result of inter-ethnic clashes (UNHCR, 08/07/2014).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
As of July, Uganda has 30,196 IDPs (OCHA, 05/08/2014).
As of 13 October, 200 people had been displaced from Moyo district to Adjumani town as a result of clashes that began mid-September; some had taken refuge in schools in Moyo district (ACT, 13/10/2014).
Refugees in Uganda
As of 2 September, there were 400,000 refugees and asylum seekers in Uganda, mainly from DRC (46%), South Sudan (37%), Somalia (6%), Rwanda (3%) and Burundi (3%) (UNHCR, 23/09/2014).
As of 3 October, nearly 127,000 South Sudanese refugees had fled to Uganda since December 2013. Refugees entering via the Elegu and Arua border points continue to be hosted in refugee settlements in Adjumani, Kiryandongo, and Arua districts (IOM, 05/10/2014). 150,000 South Sudanese refugees are expected to arrive by the end of 2014 (WFP, 01/10/2014). The Ugandan Government has secured additional land in Moyo district in order to settle newly arrived refugees (UNICEF, 20/08/2014).
80,740 South Sudanese refugees are in Adjumani, the majority in Nyumanzi and Ayilo settlements. Women and children account for 87% of arriving refugees. Nearly 365 unaccompanied minors have been reported (ACT, 13/10/2014).
Arua, Adjumani, and Kyriandongo are stretched far beyond capacity, and there is an urgent need to improve shelter, WASH, health, food, and psychological support (Red Cross, 17/09/2014). Hygiene practices and behaviours are lacking due to limited awareness among refugees and available latrine utilization very poor (Red Cross, 30/09/2014). The onset of the rainy season in May has brought new challenges, as heavy rains damaged shelter and WASH facilities in camps (ACT, 13/10/2014).
Returnees to South Sudan
Clashes that began on 15 September between the Kuku and Ma’di communities in Moyo district, northern Uganda, have displaced nearly 8,000 South Sudanese refugees in Uganda back into Kajo-Keji county in South Sudan as of 3 October. Food, shelter, non-food items and social services are required (IOM, 05/10/2014). Voluntary repatriation of the South Sudanese to Uganda has begun (UNHCR, 03/10/2014).
Ugandan Refugees in Neighbouring Countries
As of 31 July, there were 1,263 Ugandan refugees in Kenya (UNHCR, 31/07/2014). As of 30 June, there were 1,211 Ugandan refugees in DRC (UNHCR, 30/06/2014).
Land disputes in western Uganda have allegedly led to the eviction and brutalization of nearly 700 residents in Hoima. They have no access to medical aid and are suffering from malnutrition and SGBV (VOA, 24/09/2014).
As of 5 August, 560,000 people are food insecure (OCHA 05/08/2014).
Some localised areas in Karamoja remain at Crisis (IPC Phase 3) level of acute food insecurity due to the lack of green harvests. In these areas, food access through firewood and charcoal sales, wild food collection, and the typical safety nets provided for the poorest is inadequate (FEWSNET, 30/09/2014). Northern and central districts including Amudat, Nakapiripirit, Moroto, Kotido, Napak, Abim and Kaabong are of concern, with an estimated 824,104 food insecure (FEWSNET, 31/07/2014). 20% of households in the region are only marginally able to meet minimum food needs, with continued erosion of livelihoods through sales of livestock. As of end July, levels of humanitarian assistance were not meeting the needs of vulnerable households (FEWSNET, 31/07/2014).
Below-average pasture conditions are reported at the start of the second rainy season in Apac and Lira, parts of northern Gulu and Kitgum, and parts of Kaabong, Moroto, and Nakapiripirit districts in Karamoja region (FAO, 15/09/2014).
In Karamoja, the September–October harvest is expected to be only 20–30% of average (FEWSNET, 01/08/2014). Cereal crop production by November is forecast to be below average as unfavourable rains in April reduced planting (FAO, 15/09/2014).
A small reduction in income from livestock sales is expected across northern Uganda as a result of the quarantine imposed on cattle markets following an outbreak of foot and mouth disease in May (FEWSNET, 30/09/2014).
Health and Nutrition
One person died from Marburg virus disease in Kampala on 28 September (AFP, 05/10/2014). 146 contacts have been identified and isolated for a 21-day incubation period (WHO, 10/10/2014).
Health centres in Arua, Adjumani, and Kyriandongo require additional staff, space and supplies to respond to refugee needs (UNICEF, 20/08/2014).
Cholera outbreaks have been identified in the northwestern districts of Arua and Moyo (UNICEF, 20/08/2014).
Blanket feeding programmes are required to address increased GAM among South Sudanese refugees in West Nile (WFP, 01/10/2014). GAM among South Sudanese refugees in Uganda had reached 19.9% as of August (OCHA, 05/08/2014).
There are concerns over lack of water supply in Alere, Boroli and Olua I and II refugee settlements in Adjumani district, where the average supply is 9.7 litres of water per person per day, far below the minimum standard of 15 (ACT, 13/10/2014).
In Amudat district, safe water access, latrine access, and sanitation issues are a serious concern (WFP, UNICEF, 06/2014).
Democratic People's Republic of Korea Country Analysis
No significant developments this week, 14/10/2014. Last update: 24/09/2014No current data on child mortality, food security, food price levels, or the general magnitude of humanitarian needs is available. Therefore, DPRK is not included in the Global Overview prioritisation.
- Massive human rights infringements, including against prisoners in prison camps who face starvation and torture, continue to be reported. Humanitarian access remains extremely limited (UN).
- Information on the food security situation remains limited. As of August, an estimated 16 million people (almost 65% of DPRK’s population) are chronically food insecure and an estimated 2.4 million people need food assistance (OCHA).
- As of August, malnutrition rates, particularly in the northwest, were extremely high with global chronic malnutrition (stunting) at almost 28% and global acute malnutrition (wasting) at 4% among children under five (OCHA).
- DPRK is disaster prone, regularly experiencing seasonal flooding that, for instance, affected over 800,000 people in summer 2013 (OCHA).
On 26 March, the UN Human Rights Council passed a resolution condemning DPRK for longstanding and ongoing systematic, widespread, and gross human rights violations. On 17 March, China dismissed the UN for making unfounded accusations. On 18 February, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights had urged world powers to refer DPRK to the International Criminal Court; a UN report documented evidence of widespread and systematic human rights violations and crimes against humanity and recommended targeted UN sanctions. DPRK announced in August that it is to publish a human rights report to counters the claims in the UN report (international media, 08/2014).
On 29 April, Pyongyang conducted a scheduled military exercise near its sea border with South Korea, international observers reported. On 25 April, South Korean officials said that DPRK had completed all steps required prior to a potential nuclear test.
On 12 February, Seoul and Pyongyang held their first high-level talks in seven years, in the Panmunjom truce village. According to reports, although no agenda had been set, the parties discussed a range of issues including reunions of families separated during the 1950–1953 Korean War.
In September 2013, DPRK agreed to restore a cross-border military hotline with South Korea, which had been shut down six months earlier, and DPRK and South Korea reopened the joint industrial park in Kaesong.
Humanitarian Context and Needs
Humanitarian access is extremely limited. On 1 May, the UN Human Rights Council’s recommendations to the Government as part of the Universal Periodic Review included unrestricted access to prisons and prison camps for humanitarian organisations, and close collaboration with humanitarian organisations to ensure the transparent distribution of aid.
Information on food security remains limited. An estimated 16 million people, of a total population of 24.6 million, are chronically food insecure. An estimated 2.4 million people need food assistance (OCHA, 11/09/2014).
WFP reports that 45% of households have borderline and 30% poor food consumption. People in central mountainous areas do not have access to sufficient food from the public distribution centre and have to rely on planting risky hillside crops to supplement their daily diet, despite poor seed quality, shallow soil, accelerated erosion, low yield expectations, and the fact that most of the hillside cultivators do not necessarily have an agricultural background (US State Department, 22/09/2014).
OCHA reports that although the humanitarian situation has improved slightly since 2013, the structural causes of vulnerability persist and external assistance is needed, notably in the northeastern provinces. The food system in DPRK remains highly vulnerable to shocks and serious shortages exist, particularly in the production of protein-rich crops.
Health and Nutrition
Chronic child malnutrition and poor dietary diversity among children, women, and households remain the main concern. Super cereal, biscuits, pulses and oil are needed to supplement the poor dietary intake among target vulnerable groups (WFP 06/2014).
No significant developments this week, 15/10/2014. Last update: 03/09/2014.
No accurate or verified data relating to the food security situation or food price levels in Eritrea is available, therefore Eritrea is not included in the Global Overview prioritisation.
- Torture, arbitrary detention, and severe restrictions on freedom of expression, association, and religion are common in Eritrea (UN, HRW).
- Ongoing human rights abuses prompt thousands of Eritreans to flee the country every year. In December 2013, Ethiopia was hosting an estimated 84,200 Eritrean refugees (UNHCR).
- Over 60% of the Eritrean population was reported as being undernourished between 2011 and 2013 (WFP).
Human rights abuses, including torture, arbitrary detention, and severe restrictions on freedom of expression, association, and religion are common in Eritrea, according to the UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Eritrea and Human Rights Watch. Conscription to national service can last for an indefinite period of time, and is reportedly poorly paid. Interviews with Eritrean asylum seekers revealed that the main reason for fleeing the country was to avoid conscription. Harassment of citizens by authorities, on the grounds of their plotting to leave Eritrea, is reportedly widespread (UN Human Rights Council, 31/03/2014). In September, the UN Human Rights Council set up a Commission of Inquiry to investigate human rights abuses in Eritrea (Human Rights Watch, 24/09/2014).
Between 5,000 and 10,000 political prisoners are being held in a country of just over six million people. The UN human rights chief has accused the government of torture and summary executions (UN Human Rights Council, 05/02/2014).
Eritrea and Djibouti engaged in border wars in 1996 and 2008. During the latter, according to Ethiopian officials in 2014, a number of Eritrean soldiers deserted and became refugees in Djibouti. President Isaias Afewerki, who has ruled for over 20 years, uses the pretext of the border conflict with Ethiopia to justify tight control over its people (New York Times, 03/10/2014).
Humanitarian Context and Needs
There is a lack of updated and reliable data on the humanitarian situation due to limited humanitarian access.
In 2011, the Government of Eritrea issued a directive to all non-state development partners operating in Eritrea to cease operating by the end of 2012. In November-December 2013, several projects in partnership with the UN and the government commenced (IFRC, 30/05/2104).
As reported in ECHO’s Humanitarian Implementation Plan (HIP) released in October 2013, providing direct humanitarian assistance remains a challenge due to limited access, and absence of assessments and humanitarian space.
On 24 April, according to media sources, the UAE Red Cross had access to a million children across six provinces to distribute clothing.
As of 30 April, 64 stateless persons and IDPs reside in Eritrea (UNHCR).
As of 31 May, 3,136 refugees reside in Eritrea, including 3,056 Somalian refugees (UNHCR).
Eritrean Refugees in Neighbouring Countries
According to 2012 UNHCR figures, there are 300,000 Eritrean refugees in neighbouring countries as well as in Europe and Israel. According to UN figures, some 4,000 Eritreans, among them hundreds of unaccompanied minors, are fleeing the country every month to escape government repression and lack of basic freedoms (UN, 05/06/2014).
Ethiopia: More refugees crossed into Ethiopia in 2013 compared to 2012. In December 2013, OCHA said that Ethiopia had registered the arrival of 3,043 new refugees from Eritrea, and as of 31 December, Ethiopia was hosting an estimated 84,200 Eritrean refugees, who are mainly settled in four camps in the northern Tigray region and two others in Afar region (OCHA). The high proportion of unaccompanied minors who cross from Eritrea to Ethiopia is a priority problem (UNHCR).
Sudan: Eastern Sudan received an average of 500 Eritrean refugees per month in 2013, down from 2,000 a month in 2012. Sudan reportedly hosts at least 114,500 Eritrean refugees.
Djibouti: Djibouti receives an estimated 110 Eritreans each month (UNHCR). On 30 June, 74 Eritrean refugees and asylum seekers were sent back from Sudan, after being convicted of illegally entering Sudan (UNHCR, 04/07/2014)
Yemen: Hundreds of Eritrean refugees are currently in Yemen. Several NGOs have called on the Yemeni authorities to stop deporting Eritrean political refugees (UNHCR). Reports indicate hundreds of Eritrean refugees are scattered across the streets of Al Safeyah in Sana’a, without proper shelter or livelihood. Refugees have informed UNHCR that most are imprisoned upon arrival in Yemen, who state security concerns (Yemen Times, 19/08/2014).
Kenya: As of 31 July, there are 1,641 Eritrean refugees in Kenya, most of them located in Nairobi (UNHCR 31/07/2014).
Good kiremti rains have had favourable effects on the main 2014 cropping season as satellite-based monitoring shows above-average vegetation conditions in Debub, Maekel, Gash Barka and Anseba zobas. The Red Sea coastal area, however, has seen low precipitations, showing significant deterioration of grazing resources (FEWSNET, 02/09/2014).
A swarm of desert locusts was treated in July. Small scale breeding will occur in the western lowlands in August, causing locust numbers to increase slightly (FAO, 01/08/2014).
As indicated in ECHO’s October HIP, as a result of access restrictions imposed by the authorities, very little data on food security in Eritrea is available. However, it is estimated that Eritrea produces only 60% of the food it needs, and markets do not seem to be functioning properly. These two factors suggest that a significant part of the population may be in need of food assistance. In addition, local food and fuel prices are likely to remain high, putting severe pressure on household coping mechanisms. The government officially denies any food shortages within its borders and refuses food aid.
Health and Nutrition
Malnutrition remains a widespread problem. As reported by UNDP, quoting the Food Security Strategy (2004) report, 38% of Eritrean children experience stunting; 44% are underweight, and 50% suffer from anaemia. About 59% of the Eritrean population consumes less than the daily calorie requirement.
According to FAO in 2013, over 60% of the Eritrean population was reported to be undernourished during 2011–2013.
According to a Government report, malaria infections have visibly declined thanks to higher community awareness and regard for environmental hygiene (Government of Eritrea, 24/09/2014). No figures are available to confirm this information.
On 13 May, the Report of the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Eritrea was released. It focuses on the indefinite national service and arbitrary arrest and detention, including incommunicado detention and inhumane prison conditions. Rampant human rights violations cause hundreds of thousands to leave the country (UN Human Rights Council).