Global Emergency Overview

Afghanistan Country Analysis

Politics and security

The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) withdrew from Afghanistan in December 2014, leaving only around 12,000 NATO personnel to provide training and equipment to Afghan security forces (Talk Radio News Service 22/06/2015). 22,634 security incidents were recorded in 2015, a 3% increase on 2014. Almost half of the incidents occurred in the provinces of Ghazni, Helmand, Kandahar, Kunar, and Nangarhar (UN 18/03/2016). The Taliban have gained control of an increasing number of districts, notably in Farah and Faryab, Badakhshan, Takhar, and Baghlan (UNSC 02/02/2015; ECHO 12/10/2015). They attempted to seize control of provincial capitals in the last three months of the year (Long War Journal 16/10/2015, 14/11/2015). This change in strategy pushed the US to stop the complete withdrawal of its troops scheduled for 2016 (BBC 15/10/2015). The Taliban reportedly control many areas around Kunduz city despite Afghan forces’ operatins to remove them, raising concern over a possible new attack on the city (Afghanistan Analysts 06/02/2016).

Political instability

President Ashraf Ghani and Prime Minister Abdullah Abdullah were sworn in in September 2014 (Reuters 29/09/2014). Rival candidates in disputed presidential elections, they have been struggling to maintain a unity government (Reuters 08/07/2015; AFP 26/09/2014). Leaders of ethnic groups have criticised Ghani for filling key government posts with Pashtun kin (Reuters 08/07/2015; AFP 26/09/2014). Parliamentary elections, scheduled for April 2015, have been postponed to 15 October 2016, because of the deterioration of the security situation (Reuters 19/06/2015; local media 01/04/2015; UN 18/03/2016).

Peace talks

Afghan officials and Taliban met in July 2015 in Islamabad, Pakistan, for a first round of peace talks, but the Taliban pulled out at the end of the month (AFP 08/07/2015, 24/07/2015; The Telegraph 30/07/2015; The Age 31/07/2015). Four-way talks between the governments of Afghanistan, Pakistan, China, and the US started in January 2016 in Islamabad, aiming to revive peace negotiations within the coming six months (VOA 02/01/2016; Reuters 07/01/2016; IPCS 06/02/2016; Tolo News 06/02/2016; AFP 06/02/2016; The Diplomat 08/02/2016). On 24 January the Taliban indicated that preconditions for their participation in the talks include their removal from the UN’s terrorist blacklist and the reopening of their political office in Doha, Qatar (AFP 24/01/2016).

As winter comes to and end and the ‘fighting season’ approaches, local media sources have reported that Russia is urging the Taliban to participate in the peace talks (Tolo News 25/02/2016). On 27 February, after the first of two suicide attacks that day, President Ghani declared that the government will not hold peace talks with factions of the Taliban that target Afghan civilians (RFERL 28/02/2016). On 5 March, the Taliban refused to participate in direct peace talks with the government. Nonetheless, Afghan officials were reported to be optimistic about peace talks with the Taliban starting in the coming weeks (AFP 05/03/2016; 06/03/2016).

Pakistan–Afghanistan relations

Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have long been tense; both states have accused each other of harbouring terrorists (Journal of Political Studies 2015). In September 2015, Afghanistan accused Pakistan of organising insurgent attacks in Afghanistan, indicating in particular the December 2014 attack on an army school (The Tribune 03/09/2015). On the other side, Pakistan accused Afghanistan several times of harbouring militants carrying out attacks in Pakistani territory, the last of which being the attack to Bacha Khan University in Charsadda on 20 January (Muslim Press 23/01/2016).

Conflict developments

In 2015, 11,002 civilian casualties were recorded in Afghanistan: 3,545 dead, and 7,457 injured. This represents a 4% decrease in civilian deaths, and a 9% increase in civilian injuries, compared to 2014. In 2014, 10,548 civilian casualties were reported: 3,699 deaths and 6,849 injured (UNAMA 13/02/2016; 02/02/2015).

There have been reports of Afghan forces withdrawing and repositioning in February and March: on 6 March, reports indicated that Afghan forces had withdrawn from outposts in central Uruzgan province (AFP 06/03/2016).

Helmand: On 22 February, the Afghan army reportedly retreated from two army bases in Musa Qala district, and from one in Nawzad district. Government sources reported that the decision was part of a tactical repositioning of forces in order to prioritise crucial districts such as Sangin and the areas surrounding Lashkar Gah (RFERL 22/02/2016). The Taliban reportedly gained control of Sangin district in December (BBC 21/12/2015).

Kabul: On 29 March, a bomb attack killed at least two civilians and injured at least ten (Tolo News 29/03/2016). On 27 February, at least 12 people were killed and eight were injured in a suicide attack near the Defence Ministry (AFP 27/02/2016).

Other incidents: On 2 March, at least three people were killed and 19 were injured in a suicide attack close to the Indian consulate in Jalalabad, Nangarhar province (AFP 02/03/2016). On 27 February, at least 13 people were killed and around 40 were injured by a suicide attack in Asadabad, in Kunar province (Al Jazeera 27/02/2016). On 22 February, a Taliban suicide attack killed 13 people and injured at least 19 in the district of Sia Gerd, Parwan province, northeast of Kabul (AFP 22/02/2016). On 21 February, more than six people, including four children, were killed by an improvised explosive device in the district of Waz Khwa, Paktika province (RFERL 21/02/2016). On 17 February, armed men, reportedly belonging to Afghan special forces, killed two patients and an 11-year old caregiver at a health centre run by an international NGO in Wardak province (ECHO 20/02/2016; HRW 19/02/2016).

Stakeholders

Taliban

The Taliban has regained strength, especially since ISAF forces withdrew in December 2014. In 2014 the movement was composed by an estimated 60,000 people, compared to 25,000 militants in 2009. The ultraconservative Islamist force’s activities have expanded from south and southeastern areas to northern provinces, especially Kunduz, Balkh, and Faryab (The Telegraph 30/07/2015; Daily Mail 28/09/2015; Counter Extremism 21/01/2016). The Taliban is increasingly financed by criminal enterprises including heroin laboratories, illegal mining, and kidnapping (UNSC 02/02/2015). Media sources report that, in December, the Taliban leader Mansour was shot and wounded in Quetta, Pakistan, by a Taliban member (AFP 11/01/2016). Splintering of the Taliban has been reported since 2013, with concerns that this may attract Taliban members to Islamic State (AlBawaba 08/12/2015; Business Recorder 06/09/2015).

Islamic State (IS)

Militants fighting under the IS banner in Afghanistan, including an unknown number of former Taliban and foreign fighters, have reportedly seized territory from the Taliban in several district of Nangarhar province. IS launched its first offensive against Afghan forces in September 2015, attacking a checkpoint in Nangarhar (The Tribune 28/09/2015). On 13 January, IS carried out an attack on the Pakistan consulate in Jalalabad (Reuters, 29/06/2015; The Diplomat 02/02/2016).

International military presence

NATO’s combat mission in Afghanistan ended on 31 December 2014, leaving just 13,000 troops in the country. The focus of the current mission is on supporting Afghan forces’ fight against the Taliban, along with US counter-terrorism operations (NATO 06/2015). Its headquarters are in Kabul, with four other bases in Mazar-e-Sharif, Herat, Kandahar, and Laghman (NATO 27/02/2015). The US will maintain all its 9,800 NATO troops until the end of 2016, and then reduce them to 5,500 in 2017 (BBC 15/10/2015; US Government 12/02/2016).  NATO troops from Germany, Italy, and Turkey have not set an end date to their presence (Fox News 11/10/2015).

Afghan National Security Forces

The Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) are composed of around 350,000 personnel, including troops and police. They lack adequate management and are in deep need of reform (Tolo News 12/02/2016).

Pro-government militias

In Khanabad district, Kunduz province, the membership of US-funded pro-government militias, also known as local police, grew to 3,000 in 2015, 1,000 more than in 2014, according to district governor Hayatullah Amiri. The militia was founded with the purpose of mobilising rural communities against the Taliban. However, civilians have reported a rise in abuse by these groups, including extortion, theft, and assault (Daily Mail 03/06/2015; IRIN 07/09/2015). Around 22,000 combined local police and pro-government militias are reportedly operating in Faryab province; however episodes of corruption and weapon-trade with insurgent groups, involving these militias, were reported (Gandhara RFERL 19/01/2016).

Natural Disasters

Around 282,800 individuals were affected by disasters triggered by natural hazards in 2015, in 218 districts. It represents a significant increase compared to the 177,000 people affected over 202 districts, in 2014. In 2015, 1,141 Afghans were injured or killed by such disasters and 38,835 houses were damaged or destroyed, compared to 819 people killed and 21,674 houses damaged or destroyed the previous year. The main natural hazards were floods and landslides/avalanches. Badakhshan and Nangarhar were most affected in 2015, while in 2014 the most affected provinces were Balkh, Baghlan, Faryab, and Jawzjan (OCHA 24/03/2016; 18/01/2015).

Displacement

Over 1.1 million displaced people were within the country as of November 2015 (IDMC 16/07/2015; ECHO 16/11/2015). Afghanistan is home to over 236,000 Pakistani refugees, and to around 130,000 documented and undocumented Afghans who returned from Pakistan in 2015 (ECHO 16/11/2015; HRW 18/11/2015). Around 68,600 people live in Kabul informal settlements, including IDPs and returnees. Over 55,000 of these live in mud houses with no running water or sanitation facilities (OCHA 31/12/2015; Terre des Hommes 26/02/2016). Average household size in the settlements is 8.9. 29% are children under five. 61% of households have at least one pregnant or breastfeeding woman; 18% have at least one person with a disability (OCHA 10/02/2016).

IDPs

More than 1.1 million people were reported internally displaced due to conflict as of December. Of these, more than 335,400 were newly displaced in 2015, representing a 78% increase in IDPs compared to 2014. Most were displaced from Kunduz, Helmand, Farah, Kabul, Badakhshan, and Badghis (OCHA 03/02/2016; ECHO 18/02/2016). Access to water, food, adequate shelter, and employment opportunities is very limited for people displaced in remote and inaccessible areas (IDMC 31/10/2015).

Refugees and asylum seekers

As of 10 February 2016, around 237,000 Pakistani refugees were reported in Afghanistan, with at least 67,000 living in Gulan camp in Khost province. 67% are under 18 years of age (UNHCR 10/02/2016; OCHA 20/01/2016). In 2015, UNHCR started implementing a return plan for Pakistani refugees who fled military operations in FATA that began in June 2014.

Refugee returnees

Between January and October 2015, over 54,700 registered and 95,700 undocumented Afghans returned from Pakistan. Over 2,700 registered and 260,500 undocumented Afghans returned from Iran. Around 220,000 of the undocumented returnees were deported, most from Iran (USIP 13/01/2016; Tolo News 19/12/2015). The number of documented Afghan refugees returning home from Pakistan under the UNHCR programme more than tripled compared to the 16,995 of 2014 (UNHCR 21/12/2015). Police abuse of Afghans in Pakistan is reportedly pushing many refugees to return (UNHCR 31/05/2015; HRW 17/11/2015; Reuters 04/09/2015).

Refugees from Afghanistan in other countries

As of 23 December, Kabul passport office still reported 4,000 applications per day after having peaked to 10,000 as of 24 September (Tolo News 23/12/2015; VOA 24/09/2015).

Pakistan: As of 3 December, over 1.5 million registered Afghan refugees, and an estimated 1.2 million unregistered, are reported to be in Pakistan (ECHO 22/01/2016). On 12 January, Pakistan decided to extend the permit of residence (PoR) of registered Afghan nationals for six months, allowing them to stay in Pakistan until 30 June 2016 (DAWN 14/01/2016).

Iran: As of 3 December, 982,027 registered Afghan refugees, and an estimated 1.5 million unregistered, are reported to be in Iran (ECHO 03/12/2015).

Europe: Overall 80,900 Afghans entered Europe as asylum seekers in 2015 (ECHO 16/11/2015; UNHCR 29/11/2015). According to a UNHCR survey in February 2016, 45% of Afghans who left the country to reach Greece are children, 22% are women, and 34% men. 48% are Shia, 48% Sunni, and 5% belong to a different religion. 43% are Tajiks, 39% Hazara, and 9% Pashtun. 4% have a disability. 80% left for reasons of conflict and violence. 70% were IDPs before leaving (UNHCR 13/03/2016).

Humanitarian access

Access in Afghanistan deteriorated in 2015 as insecurity grew.

The Taliban has historically targeted humanitarian workers (AFP 06/11/2015; The Guardian 04/06/2015; Humanosphere 03/06/2015). 50% more attacks against health personnel and facilities were recorded in 2015, than in the previous year (ICRC 18/03/2016).

Terrain and poor transport infrastructure also challenge access to the most remote areas (USAID 18/11/2015; OCHA 12/11/2015).

Access of relief actors to affected populations

Humanitarian presence is falling. Security fears are causing a reduction in applications to work in the country (AFP 06/11/2015). In 2015, 73 aid workers were reported to have been attacked: 39 national aid workers were killed, 21 wounded, and nine kidnapped; four international aid workers were kidnapped (Aid Workers Security Database 04/01/2016). In January and February, over 20 security incidents against NGOs and international organizations were recorded, including four cases of violence against health facilities and 14 abductions (OCHA 13/03/2016). On 2 April 2016, 15 deminers working for the organization Halo Trust were kidnapped by unidentified gunmen in the district of Kohsan, in Herat province (Afghanistan Times 02/04/2016).

Food security and livelihoods

Conflict-induced displacement has caused a deterioration in the food security situation (FAO 19/02/2016). Over 1.76 million people are reported to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security. In the IPC classification for the lean season from January to March 2016, 10–15% of the population in Badakhshan, Kunduz, and Paktika, are in Emergency (IPC Phase 4); six provinces of Afghanistan are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity, and 12 others are in Crisis. Women and children are the most vulnerable (OCHA 05/01/2016; FAO 19/02/2016; Food Security Cluster 31/01/2016; 28/01/2016; 14/01/2016).

Health

At least 3.1 million people are in need of health assistance at the end of 2015 (OCHA 05/01/2016). Health services are severely underequipped and understaffed (Medical Teams International 02/10/2015). There is a shortage of trained surgeons, anaesthetists, and trauma capacity in conflict-affected areas (OCHA 25/11/2014). Only 22% of the country’s 5,858 medical doctors, and 21% of Afghanistan’s 5,599 nurses, are women. Only 3% of community health supervisors are female. This has a heavy impact in a country where cultural beliefs often impose that women can be treated only by female health workers (UNFPA 09/03/2016; UNICEF 29/11/2015).

Gaps in health services also include lack of maternal care and problems in the delivery of treatment for victims of sexual and gender-based violence (OCHA 31/07/2015; Medical Teams International 02/10/2015).

Prevalence of diarrhoea, cholera, and malaria is high nationwide, due to poor WASH conditions (ACTED 10/11/2015). Additionally, Afghanistan still records a high burden of tuberculosis, with over 14,000 deaths reported every year (Government 30/03/2016).

Heroin and opium abuse

3.5 million people (11% of the population) are involved in abuse of heroin and opium derivatives, according to the Ministry of Health. Between 650,000 and 890,000 are women, and 100,000 are children (IWPR 03/12/2015). High rates of unemployment are reportedly exacerbating drug abuse (IWPR 07/12/2015).

Polio

At the end of March, a new case of polio was recorded in Afghanistan. It is the second case in 2016, one more than in the same period of 2015. Some media sources report that the affected child contracted the disease despite having received polio drops multiple times (Global Polio Eradication Initiative 30/03/2016; Pahjwok 02/04/2016). In all 2015, 20 polio cases were reported in Afghanistan, while 28 were recorded in 2014 (Global Polio Eradication Initiative 23/03/2016; GPEI 10/02/2016).

Nutrition

At the end of last year, around 2.9 million people were reported to be in need of some kind of nutrition assistance (OCHA 05/01/2016).

The nutrition situation is worsening, with over 500,000 children reportedly affected by severe acute malnutrition in 2015, compared to 360,000 in 2014 (UNICEF 12/09/2015; IASC 17/09/2015). Throughout 2015, severe acute malnutrition (SAM) values were: 5.5% in the first quarter, 9.6% in the second, peaked to 12.9% in the third, and then decreased to 8.8% in the fourth, also thanks to the deployment of new therapeutic units (Government 10/03/2016).

WASH

Around 1.5 million people were reported to be in need of WASH assistance in 2015 (OCHA 05/01/2016). Approximately 65% of the urban population and 81% of people living in rural areas do not have access to clean drinking water (ACTED 10/11/2015). No city in Afghanistan has a comprehensive and functional sewage system (government 22/09/2015). As of the end of February 2016, water shortages in Bamyan province are reportedly forcing families to abandon farming and move to urban areas. Over 50% of Bamyan’s population lives below the national poverty line (OCHA 13/03/2016).

Shelter and NFIs

At the end of 2015, over 700,000 people were reported to be in need of emergency shelter and NFIs (OCHA 05/01/2016).

Education

Despite enrolment rates having registered a steady increase over recent years, more than 4 million children are still out of school, with particular issues in terms of gender equality in access to education (BBC 02/11/2015; UNICEF 23/07/2015). In eastern Afghanistan, only 50% of the students who enrol in the first year of school complete the fifth year (WarChild UK 02/02/2016). The UN reported that in 2015, there were 20 verified instances of military use of school facilities. 15 of these involved the Afghan National Security Forces. Most of the incidents occurred in the provinces of Kunduz, Nangarhar, Baghlan, Kunar, and Badakhshan (HRW 22/03/2016).

Access and learning environment

In 2015, over 222 schools were reportedly closed because of threats or attacks on schools, students, or teachers, according to the UN (HRW 22/03/2016). In Helmand province, more than 150 schools have been forced to close due to intensification of conflict, leaving around 100,000 students vulnerable to potential recruitment by militant factions (IRIN 16/12/2015).

IS has reportedly started teaching its ideology in schools in the districts under their control, such as Shaigal, in Kunar province (PBS 17/11/2015).

Protection

The deterioration in security is bringing protection needs to the fore, as civilians are being targeted. At least 1.7 million people are reported to be in need of some form of protection assistance, with reported risks for over 6.3 million people (OCHA 05/01/2016). In 2015, 11,002 civilian casualties were recorded in Afghanistan: 3,545 dead, and 7,457 injured. This represents a 4% decrease in civilian deaths, and a 9% increase in civilian injuries, compared to 2014 (UNAMA 13/02/2016; 02/02/2015). Fighting on the ground was the main cause of civilian casualties. Other causes include improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and suicide attacks. In 2015, anti-government forces reportedly caused 62% of all civilian casualties, compared to 72% of the previous year. Taliban offensives often target civilians (UNAMA 13/02/2016; 02/02/2015; Amnesty International 14/05/2015).

Afghan local police have reportedly been involved in intimidation, physical abuse or violence, bribe-taking, salary fraud, and theft. Incidents of rape, drug trafficking, drug abuse and the selling or renting of local police weapons and vehicles have also been reported (ICG 05/06/2015).

Mines and ERW

IEDs caused 21% of civilian deaths in 2015, compared to 28% in 2014, while ERWs caused 4% in 2015, the same as in 2014 (UNAMA 13/02/2016). In Afghanistan, as of 31 December 2015, there were still 589km² of mine-contaminated areas (MAPA 29/02/2016). Funding shortfalls mean the 2023 deadline for meeting the obligations of the Mine Ban Treaty is unlikely to be met (MAPA 22/03/2016).

Gender

Around 87% of women in Afghanistan experience at least one form of violence, be it physical, psychological, or sexual. 62% experience at least two types (UNFPA 18/02/2016). The number of reported cases of violence against women is increasing, in part due to heightened awareness of women and human rights (IWPR 10/03/2016). However, sexual violence is still heavily underreported because of resulting social stigma as well as lack of access to Taliban-controlled areas. Usually, less than 10% of the cases reported to the authorities are actually prosecuted (UNFPA 18/02/2016).

In 2015, UNAMA documented a 37% increase in female casualties (1,246 casualties, including 333 dead and 913 injured) compared to 2014 (UNAMA 13/02/2016). Nine women out of ten are reported to regularly face physical, psychological, or sexual violence. Forced marriage, often underage, is also a problem (Al Jazeera 03/07/2015). In Nangarhar province, especially in the most remote areas, tribal courts are reportedly increasing the use of summary justice measures against women. These measures include stoning, mutilation, and forced marriage (IWPR 13/02/2016).

Children

In 2015, the number of child casualties in Afghanistan was 2,829, including 733 deaths and 2,096 injured, representing an increase of 14% compared to 2014. In 2014 the number of child casualties was 2,474: 714 dead and 1,760 injured) (UNAMA 13/02/2016; 02/02/2015).

Human Rights Watch reported that throughout the last year, in Kunduz, the Taliban increasingly used madrasas and other religious schools to recruit and train children aged 13–17 to be child soldiers (HRW 17/02/2016).

Also the Afghan national police, local police, and armed groups have been listed for recruitment and use of children (Watchlist on Children and Armed Conflict 02/05/2015). On 4 February 2016, a 12-year old was killed by the Taliban in Trin Kot, Uruzgan province, because of his membership of an anti-Taliban militia last summer (AFP 04/02/2016).

Vulnerable groups

Between March 2015 and March 2016, 191 security incidents against journalists were recorded in Afghanistan, compared to 103 in the previous year. 10 journalists were killed, 22 injured, and 24 were beaten. 14 attempted bomb- and armed-attacks on journalists were recorded (HRW 18/03/2016). On 20 January 2016, at least eight people were killed and 25 were injured in a targeted suicide-attack on a minibus carrying media workers in Kabul (AFP 20/01/2016; UNAMA 21/01/2016). On 29 January, a famous writer and journalist was killed in Nangarhar province (HRW 02/02/2016).

Updated: 04/04/2016

Cameroon

Central African Republic Country Analysis

For more information on CAR, visit the ACAPS country analysis page.

Politics and security

The security situation in Central African Republic remains highly volatile. Despite multiple disarmament efforts, many disparate armed groups continue to exist (OCHA 31/11/2015). In January, a surge in attacks by armed groups was reported in Haute-Kotto, Mbomou, and Haut-Mbomou provinces (OCHA 12/02/2016). September 2015 saw the biggest surge in violence since October 2014: at least 79 people were killed and 512 injured (OCHA 16/10/2015). 

Elections

Presidential and legislative elections were held on 30 December (MINUSCA 31/12/2015). Voter turnout was estimated at 79% and no major incidents were reported (AP 07/01/2016; AU 02/01/2016; AFP 02/01/2016). However, the legislative elections were run again due to irregularities, and passed peacefully at the same time at the presidential run-off, on 14 February (Reuters 29/01/2016). Voter turnout was 61% (AFP 14/02/2016; 21/02/2016). On 20 February, Faustin-Archange Touadera, Prime Minister under President François Bozizé, was declared winner (AFP 20/02/2016). He was sworn in on 31 March, the same day as the second round of voting for legislative elections (AFP 31/03/2016).

Approximately 90% of voters voted in favour of a new constitution during a referendum in December 2015 (AFP 31/10/2015; 17/12/2015; UN News 18/12/2015).  Incidents of intimidation were reported and voter turnout was particularly low in Ndele, Birao, and Kaga Bandoro (AFP 13/12/2015). Violent clashes in Bangui’s PK-5 neighbourhood killed at least five people and wounded 20 others (AFP 14/12/2015).

Stakeholders

Ex-Seleka: Created in 2012, Seleka was an alliance of parties based in the north of the country. They advanced to the south, taking Bangui in March 2013; Michel Djotodia took the presidency, and dissolved Seleka in late 2013. Many fighters remained active and were dubbed ‘ex-Seleka’. Most moved out of the capital, but continued to control much of central and northern CAR in 2014, with Bambari, Ouaka, reported as their headquarters. 17,114 fighters were confined to three military camps in Bangui (IRIN 17/09/2014). Conflict among Seleka factions, involving in particular the Front Démocratique du Peuple Centrafricain (FDPC), grew over 2015, weakening the alliance significantly (IRIN 12/01/2015; international media 30/09/2014; Enough 17/06/2015). The Popular Front for the Renaissance of Central Africa (FPRC) is considered to be among the most vocal of the Seleka factions, FPRC is based in Kaga Bandoro town, Nana-Grebizi prefecture and is thought to have 500–700 fighters (AFP 05/12/2015). Its leader Nourredine Adam has declared an autonomous state in the north, where the Bangui government has very little reach (Reuters 16/12/2015).

Anti-balaka: Many members left the armed forces (FACA) to join the anti-balaka (anti-machete) militias that formed to counter the Seleka in 2013. There are around 75,000 anti-balaka, though the numbers are contested and the majority are only loosely organised (IRIN 12/01/2015).

LRA: The Lord’s Resistance Army, a faction of Ugandan insurgents, is active in eastern CAR (Stratfor 26/08/2015; LRA Crisis Tracker 22/09/2015). LRA activity has reportedly surged in 2016: 31 attacks are reported and 221 people abducted (OCHA 06/03/2016; Invisible Children 03/03/2016). LRA militants have abducted nearly twice as many people in the first months of 2016 as in the whole of 2015 (OCHA 29/03/2016), which recorded the lowest level of LRA activity in CAR since 2011. There were reports of large groups of armed LRA insurgents crossing into eastern CAR from South Sudan in January 2016 (UNICEF 31/01/2016).  LRA abductions and forced recruitment between December and March in Obo subprefecture, Ouham-Pende, expanded LRA numbers by 60% (OCHA 28/03/2016).

UN peacekeeping mission (MINUSCA): MINUSCA officially took over peacekeeping operations from the France-backed African Union forces (MISCA) in September 2014. The total number of peacekeepers is 12,627 uniformed personnel (UN 29/02/2016). MINUSCA forces have been accused of sexual abuse, and deaths of civilians (UN 14/08/2015; Reuters, 12/08/2015; Aljazeera 11/08/2015). The head of the mission has been replaced and peacekeepers repatriated,  with their salaries suspended (United Nations 11/09/2015). The unit from Democratic Republic of Congo is being withdrawn following allegations of rape by DRC peacekeepers (Reuters 09/01/2015). New allegations of sexual abuse committed by peacekeepers are being investigated (NYT 29/01/2016; AFP 18/02/2016; UN 28/03/2016; UN 25/03/2016).

French forces: The French peacekeeping operation was formally handed over to MINUSCA on 19 May (French Ministry of Defence 22/05/2015). Around 900 French soldiers remain in the country (Reuters 09/01/2015; AFP 05/12/2015). French officials say that they intend to draw their troops down to pre-crisis levels of around 300 by the end of 2016 (Reuters 31/01/2016).

EU advisory mission: The EU launched its Military Advisory mission (EUMAM RCA) on 19 January, with the objective of reforming the security sector (Government 16/03/2015; R2P Monitor 20/01/2016).

US forces: The US is providing logistical support, special forces, and advisers to African troops operating against the LRA (WP 29/09/2015).

Conflict developments

Fighting persists between ex-Seleka and anti-balaka, Muslim and Christian communities, and pastoralists and farmers.  Armed groups are largely not very well organised under a central command and much of the fighting is localised and characterised by banditry and reprisal attacks. December and January saw an increase in attacks on IDP camps. About a million cattle are reported killed or stolen, and around 1,000 livestock farmers belonging to the Mbororo ethnic group have been killed by anti-balaka since March 2013 (AFP 02/09/2015).

Bangui: On 11 February local defence groups from the PK5 and Boeing districts signed a non-aggression pact (UNDP 11/02/2016).This followed a spike of violence in Bangui in late September that left at least 79 people dead and injured 512 (OCHA 16/10/2015).

Haute-Kotto: On 8 March, suspected LRA militants looted a village in eastern Haute-Kotto, kidnapping 25 people (OCHA 14/03/2016).

Haut-Mbomou: On 22 March, suspected LRA militants abducted 14 men in a village in eastern Haut-Mbomou, and later released 12 (OCHA 29/03/2016). On 5 March, the LRA reportedly abducted 12 people from a village in Zemio subprefecture. One person was killed as houses and the local health post were destroyed (USAID 25/03/2016).

Mboutou: On 2 and 3 February armed groups raided the villages of Mabo and Balama, 40km west of Bangassou. 20 people were taken hostage during an attack on Mabo town, 9 of whom were later released (OCHA 08/02/2016).

Nana-Grebizi: Two new armed groups have emerged between Bakala and Azene. On 3 and 4 February, militants from one of these groups killed two people at the Mbres health centre (OCHA 08/02/2016).

Ouaka:  An attack on a restaurant in Bambari killed one restaurant staff and seriously injured 11 other people, of whom eight were humanitarian personnel (UNHCR 31/03/2016). 12 people were reported dead on 6 March after a series of attacks on villages surrounding Bambari. The attacks are thought to be related to tension between pastoralists and farmers (Reuters 06/03/3026). An additional 10 people were killed in clashes between armed groups in Bambari following the murder of two Muslim youths on 2 March (ALJ 08/03/2016).

Ouham Pende: The presence of armed groups, particularly in the Paoua area, has grown in 2016. An armed group has established a presence at Pougal, west of Paoua (OCHA 08/02/2016). Rising intercommunal tensions may lead to more displacement. In March, at least 20 people were killed in a number of incidents (OCHA 28/03/2016).

Displacement

There are 435,000 IDPs, and 7,661 refugees in CAR. 454,840 CAR refugees are in neighbouring countries (OCHA 29/02/2016; UNHCR 29/02/2016). Displacement remains dynamic, with secondary displacement and people returning (USAID 25/03/2016).

IDPs

421,280 IDPs are estimated, down from 435,000 estimated at the end of 2015 (UNHCR/Shelter Cluster/Protection Cluster 12/03/2016; OCHA 29/02/2016; WFP 31/12/2015). About 44% are in IDP sites, the rest are with host families (UNHCR/Shelter Cluster/Protection Cluster 12/03/2016). Priorities for IDPs include food security, healthcare, WASH, shelter, and basic household items (OCHA 31/08/2015). Host communities need shelter and NFI assistance (UNHCR 20/11/2015).

Bangui: As of 12 March, 66,310 IDPs are in Bangui up from 27,315 prior to violence in September (OCHA 29/02/2016; UN 27/09/2015 UNHCR/Shelter Cluster/Protection Cluster 12/03/2016). 81% are with host families, the rest are spread across 36 sites (UNHCR/Shelter Cluster/Protection Cluster 12/03/2016; OCHA 16/10/2015).

Mpoko IDP site at the airport hosts an estimated 19,000 IDPs, about 7,200 of whom were displaced at the end of September 2015 (OCHA 27/11/2015; OCHA 01/10/2015).

Bamingui-Bangoran: There are 3,370 IDPs in IDP sites (UNHCR/Shelter Cluster/Protection Cluster 12/03/2016). On 31 January, 400 people from Gozamar village moved in with host families in Ndele following clashes between pastoralists and farmers (OCHA 08/02/2016).

Basse Kotto: 7,470 IDPs with host families (UNHCR/Shelter Cluster/Protection Cluster 12/03/2016).

Haute-Kotto: 15,090 IDPs with host families (UNHCR/Shelter Cluster/Protection Cluster 12/03/2016). Recent attacks by LRA in eastern Haute-Kotto have displaced an estimated 2,200 people from surrounding villages to Bria town (OCHA 29/03/2016).

Haut-Mboumou: 15,650 IDPs: 83% in IDP sites, 13% with host families (UNHCR/Shelter Cluster/Protection Cluster 12/03/2016).

Kemo: 3,250 IDPs: 14%  in IDP sites, 86% with host families (UNHCR/Shelter Cluster/Protection Cluster 12/03/2016).

Lobaye: 32,550 IDPs: 3% in IDP sites, 97% with host families (UNHCR/Shelter Cluster/Protection Cluster 12/03/2016)

Mambere Kadei: 20,290 IDPs: 3% in IDP sites, 97% with host families (UNHCR/Shelter Cluster/Protection Cluster 12/03/2016).

Mbomou: 10,780 IDPs are with host families (UNHCR/Shelter Cluster/Protection Cluster 12/03/2016).

Nana-Grebizi: 23,330 IDPs: 41%  in IDP sites and 59% with host families (UNHCR/Shelter Cluster/Protection Cluster 12/03/2016). On 2 February, fire partially or totally destroyed 1,069 shelters  at L’Eveche IDP camp in Kaga-Bandoro (OCHA 08/02/2016). 

Nana-Mambere: 17,260 IDPs: 1% in IDP sites, 99% with host families (UNHCR/Shelter Cluster/Protection Cluster 12/03/2016).

Ouaka: 79,780 IDPs: 76%  in IDP sites, 24% with host families (UNHCR/Shelter Cluster/Protection Cluster 12/03/2016). A series of security incidents involving armed groups in early March prompted the populations of Mbata and Mbasiyanga villages to flee to the Kidjigra and Baladama-Ouaka sites. About 390 new IDPs were registered at the NDV IDP site (OCHA 15/03/2016). Hot and dry conditions have led to accidental fires at IDP camps, destroying 28 shelters at Cotonnerie site on 14 February (OCHA 25/02/2016); 156 shelters  at Notre Dame des Victoires site in Bambari  on 22 January, and seven huts at the S site on 20 January.

372 inhabitants fled Mobu in Mboutou subprefecture during a raid on the town in early February. Most fled to the bush, but some went to Bangassou and Loungougba (OCHA 08/02/2016).

Ouham: 59,600 IDPs: 77% in IDP sites and 23% with host families (UNHCR/Shelter Cluster/Protection Cluster 12/03/2016). Around 9,800 people who fled their village of Kambakota in February have returned and are in urgent need of safe water, health services, and education (OCHA 28/03/2016). 600 people in Botto and Finaye villages were displaced after conflict on 20­–23 March. They are in need of health and food assistance (OCHA 28/03/2016).

At Batangafo IDP camp, 493 shelters were destroyed by fire at the beginning of February (OCHA 26/02/2016).  In Kaga-Bandoro, a fire on 2 February at the Catholic Mission site destroyed the shelters and belongings of over 1,069 households (OCHA 26/02/2016). A second fire on 25 February destroyed another 85 huts and damaged 75. 758 people are in need of shelter, and are living in schools and at the town hall (OCHA 01/03/2016).

Ombella Mpoko: 57,770 IDPs: 72% in IDP sites, 28% with host families (UNHCR/Shelter Cluster/Protection Cluster 12/03/2016). Heavy rains on 7 March in Birlo village severely damaged 120 houses, displacing residents to host families (OCHA 15/03/2016).

Ouham Pende: 4,590 IDPs with host families (UNHCR/Shelter Cluster/Protection Cluster 12/03/2016). In early March, the presence of armed groups was reported in Koui subprefecture and in Baboua town (OCHA 15/03/2016). At least 710 people from the village of Pougol have fled to Paoua due to insecurity. An additional 6,000 displaced people are in Yelewa, 2,500 displaced people are estimated to be in Bocaranga subprefecture, 3,000 in Koui, and 750 in villages along the road between Bocaranga and Bouar (OCHA 15/01/2016; OCHA 08/02/2016). Over 2,700 people became displaced on 18 March, after rumours of armed groups coming to attack Kolo village (OCHA 28/03/2016).

Sangha-Mbaere: 2,880 IDPs with host families, 20 IDPs in sites (UNHCR/Shelter Cluster/Protection Cluster 12/03/2016).

Vakaga: 1,330 IDPs with host families (UNHCR/Shelter Cluster/Protection Cluster 12/03/2016).

Refugees and asylum seekers

As of 31 December, 7,661 refugees were registered in CAR (UNHCR 31/12/2015).

7,000 South Sudanese refugees are in Bambouti in eastern CAR. They are in urgent need of shelter, food, water, health, and protection. Most have fled recent violence in Western Equatoria. New arrivals in Bambouti outnumber the local population of about 1,500 and this is straining food and water resources. The local health clinic does not have enough medicine or equipment and there is just one midwife and a medical assistant in the town. The local school has been closed since 2002 (UNHCR 11/03/2016).

CAR refugees in neighbouring countries

As of 29 February, 454,840 CAR refugees were reported in neighbouring countries: the majority in Cameroon, followed by DRC, Chad, and Congo (UNHCR 29/02/2016).

Humanitarian access

Humanitarian access is severely limited, particularly for people in enclaves such as PK-5 and in affected communities outside Bangui, due to armed groups’ control of the roads and threats against humanitarian actors (UNHCR 31/12/2015; OCHA 20/10/2015). Truck drivers in Cameroon periodically refuse to transport food and humanitarian assistance into CAR during surges in violence (VoA 20/10/2015).

Access to South Sudanese refugees in Bambouti is constrained by the remote location and poor road conditions. Travelling from Bangui by truck takes eight days (UNHCR 11/03/2016).

Access of relief actors to affected populations

More than 200 attacks were perpetrated against humanitarian organisations in 2015 and 160 were reported in 2014 (OCHA 31/12/2015; USAID 25/03/2016). Humanitarian organisations have been increasingly targeted since September 2015 (UNHCR 20/11/2015).

52 security incidents affecting humanitarian access were reported in February 2016, down from 75 in January (OCHA 12/02/2016). Ten of the February incidents  were aimed at humanitarian personnel (USAID 25/03/2016). Humanitarian actors suspended most operations in high-risk areas of Haute-Kotto, Ouaka, and Ouham prefectures in February (USAID 25/03/2016).

The main causes of insecurity are fighting between armed groups (12%), attacks on aid workers and the population (56%), and looting (12%) (OCHA 15/03/2016). UN, NGOs, and private vehicles are regular targets on main roads (IOM 02/02/2015). Kidnapping of humanitarian workers is frequent (USAID 27/04/2015; OCHA 20/10/2015).

Physical and security constraints

Physical constraints limit road access to many parts of the country, including east of Sibut and roads north of Bangui to Nana-Gribizi and Ouham (Logistics Cluster 22/03/2016). Severe damage to roads and bridges hinders access to the cities of Bangassou and Rafai in Mbomou prefecture, and Bossangoa in Ouham prefecture (Logistics Cluster 22/03/2016). Poor airstrip conditions severely restrict humanitarian access, particularly during April­–September rainy season (Logistics Cluster 04/03/2016). At least ten important runways need repairs (OCHA 29/02/2016).

In Ouham prefecture, access to some villages near Nana-Bakassa was restricted in early March as an armed group took control of the river crossing. In Ouaka prefecture, the presence of armed groups has restricted humanitarian access near Wabe (OCHA 15/03/2016).

Access of affected populations to assistance

As of December 2015, around 36,000 Muslims are trapped in seven besieged communities (UNHCR 31/12/2015; UNICEF 30/12/2015). Anti-balaka fighters regularly carry out attacks on these communities and prevent access to the distribution of medical supplies, food, and humanitarian aid (UNICEF 31/12/2015; OCHA 30/11/2015; ODI 20/11/2015; Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect 15/09/2015).

Food security and livelihoods

2.1 million people are estimated to be moderately or severely food insecure (OCHA 29/02/2016; 30/03/2016). Of these, 600,000 people are estimated severely food insecure as of February.

IDPs staying with host families in the west and central CAR are particularly affected (FEWSNET 29/02/2016). 26% of the residents of Bangui are food insecure, or 216,000 people, 33,000 of whom are severely food insecure. The highest rates of food insecurity are found in the prefectures of Nana-Mambere (77%) Haut-Mbomou (75%), Mambere-Kadei (73%), Ouham (69%), Vakaga (64%), and Nana-Grebizi (61%) (FAO 14/01/2016; WFP 31/12/2015). In Bouar, Nana-Mambere, 1,850 households (about 9,250 people) have been affected by bush fires that destroyed 347 hectares of cassava, impacting their food insecurity (OCHA 15/03/2016).

Purchasing power shrank by one-third between 2012 and 2015, as prices for food staples increased (FAO/WFP 01/03/2016). However, maize and cassava prices remain stable in Bangui (FEWSNET 31/03/2016).

Livelihoods

Livelihoods have been severely affected by fighting: 75% of Central Africans rely on agriculture for their food and income, yet the country's overall crop production in 2015 was 54% below the pre-crisis average (FEWSNET 01/01/2016; FAO/WFP 01/03/2016; FEWSNET 31/03/2016). Livestock numbers have fallen by an estimated 50% compared to pre-crisis levels (USAID 25/03/2016).

Health

2.2 million people need access to health services (OCHA 31/03/2016). Malaria, acute respiratory infections, diarrhoea, and physical trauma are the biggest health issues among displaced people and in host communities (WHO 20/11/2015; OCHA 16/03/2016). Thousands of people in enclaves or cut off from services by violence are not able to securely access healthcare facilities and depend on visits from mobile clinics (Reuters 24/11/2015).

Healthcare availability and access

Nationwide, 23% of health centres are not functional and 80% of health services are provided by humanitarian actors (OCHA 31/11/2015). There are 250 medical doctors in the country, equating to five for 100,000 inhabitants (WHO 20/11/2015). Public health facilities lack medicine and equipment (OCHA 29/02/2016).

Monkeypox

As of 5 February, 13 cases of monkeypox, an infectious viral disease, were confirmed in Mbomou prefecture (ICRC 19/02/2016). At least two deaths have been reported (Government 18/01/2016; ICRC 19/02/2016). Suspected cases are being quarantined (OCHA 29/01/2016; 18/01/2016). The national health authority declared an epidemic on 28 December (OCHA 29/01/2016).

Meningitis

On 16 March, a meningitis outbreak was announced in Ouham prefecture: 90 cases were confirmed, including 24 deaths (OCHA 21/03/2016). Communication channels to raise community awareness are lacking (OCHA 28/03/2016). Meningitis is seasonally endemic to CAR.

Nutrition

200,000 people are in need of nutrition (OCHA 31/11/2015; 30/03/2016). In 2015, 23,489 children were admitted for treatment for severe acute malnutrition (SAM), similar to 2014 numbers (UNICEF 31/12/2015). A SMART survey of enclaves and IDP sites in Kaga Bandoro, Bambari, and Batangafo indicated global acute malnutrition was approaching 9.2%, and SAM 2.2% (UNICEF 08/09/2015). Acute malnutrition is expected to peak as CAR enters its lean season, which runs from April to November (OCHA 16/03/2016).

WASH

1.4 million people are in need of WASH (OCHA 30/11/2015; 30/03/2016). Only 22% of the urban population and 34% of the rural population have access to safe drinking water. 94% of the rural population does not have access to latrines. WASH needs are most severe in conflict-prone areas including Bambari, Kaga-Bandoro, and Batangafo (OCHA 30/11/2015).

Water shortages have been reported at the Pladama IDP site in Ouaka prefecture (OCHA 15/03/2016).

IDPs in Batangafo are also in urgent need of waste management, latrines and showers (OCHA 28/03/2016).

Shelter and NFIs

600,000 people are in need of shelter and NFIs (OCHA 31/11/2015).

Over 40,000 houses were estimated damaged or destroyed in Ouham, Nana Grebizi, Kemo, Ouaka, and Ombella Mpoko prefectures during the spike of violence in September 2015 (Shelter Cluster 31/12/2105).

Hot and dry conditions in January and February led to accidental fires in several IDP camps, exacerbating shelter needs (USAID 25/03/2016).

South Sudanese refugees in Bambouti are in urgent need of shelter. The majority are in make-shift shelters, but some are staying with host families (11/03/2016).

Education

800,000 people are in need of education (OCHA 31/11/2015). Less than one-third of children are enrolled in school (UNICEF 27/01/2016; OCHA 31/11/2015).

Since late 2012, 38% of schools in the country have been attacked or looted (UNICEF 12/02/2016). Only 25% of schools in Nana-Grebizi are functional, 50% in Ouaka and 63% in Sangha-Mbaere (OCHA 31/11/2015).

Protection

2.3 million people are in need of protection (OCHA 31/11/2015). Protection concerns are highest in Ouham, Nana-Grebizi, Ouaka, Mambere-Kadei, Haute Kotto, Ouham Pende, and Haut-Mbomou (OCHA 30/11/2015).

36,000 people are estimated to be trapped in enclaves and unable to move around freely, including 26,000 in PK-5 in Bangui, 8,374 in Boda, 523 in Carnot, 229 in Yaloke, 1,200 in Bouar, 115 in Dekoa, and 425 in Berberati (UNHCR 31/12/2015; UNICEF 30/12/2015).

Ex-Seleka and anti-balaka groups are both listed for child recruitment, killing, rape and other forms of sexual violence. The ex-Seleka are also listed for attacks on schools and/or hospitals (Watchlist on Children and Armed Conflict 01/04/2015).

Gender

More than 60,000 cases of sexual and gender-based violence were registered by the UN Population Fund during the first ten months of 2015 (UNHCR 10/12/2015). 9,685 cases of gender-based violence were reported in October 2015, up from 6,396 in September 2015 (OCHA 30/11/2015). Anti balaka have reportedly raped women in Mpoko IDP camp  for conducting business with Muslim traders (VOA 16/01/2016; HRW 17/12/2015).

There have been 42 allegations of sexual abuse or exploitation perpetrated by UN personnel in CAR since 2014 – at least 10 allegations involve minors ((Washington Post 27/02/2016; AFP 11/09/2015; HRW 04/02/2016).

Children

At 2.4 million, children represent half of the population affected by crisis in CAR, including food insecurity, protection, and access to basic services (UNICEF 31/12/2015). The number of children recruited into armed groups has risen from 2,500 at the beginning of the crisis, to 6,000-10,000 (UNICEF 28/08/2015; UNICEF 12/02/2016; OCHA 29/02/2016).

Documentation

Many citizens are unable to access important documents including identity documents, property deeds, and birth certificates, owing administrative deficiencies (OCHA 30/11/2015). Refugee children without access to birth certificates are at risk of statelessness (OCHA 28/05/2015).

Updated: 04/04/2016

Democratic Republic of Congo Country Analysis

Eritrea

Iraq Country Analysis

Libya Country Analysis

Nigeria Country Analysis

Somalia Country Analysis

South Sudan Country Analysis

Politics and security

President Kiir’s Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), who are predominantly Dinka, have been fighting a loose alliance of military defectors loyal to former Vice President Riek Machar, the Sudanese People’s Liberation Army-In-Opposition (SPLA-IO), and ethnic Nuer militia, since December 2013. Fighting has killed at least 50,000 people and displaced over two million people. Armed violence is mostly concentrated in Unity, Jonglei and Upper Nile but in recent months has spread to parts of Greater Equatoria. An increasing number of armed groups are neither aligned with the government nor the opposition (AFP 25/12/2015; Al Jazeera 03/03/2016).

A peace deal was signed in August between Machar and President Kiir, but the agreement has not been implemented and ground fighting and aerial bombardment continue. There are reports that both the government and opposition are stockpiling arms and ammunition (New York Times 01/02/2016). The AU has warned that the peace deal is at risk of total collapse and has urged all parties to uphold their commitments, including a permanent ceasefire (News24 29/11/2015). 

Progress of the peace agreement

Dispute over the President’s unilateral decision to restructure South Sudan from 10 states into 28 has been a major obstacle to implementing the peace agreement and forming a transitional government. The final peace deal established power-sharing on the basis of the existing 10-state structure (AFP 25/12/2015).  Armed groups in parts of Greater Upper Nile, Bahr el Ghazal and Eastern Equatoria have rejected the restructuring, warning that they will incite ethnic conflict over border demarcation (Sudan Tribune 02/01/2016; Radio Tamazuj 02/01/2016).

More positive developments regarding the implementation of the peace agreement include the appointment of 50 legislators from the SPLM-IO on 8 January. On 12 February Riek Machar was reappointed as Vice President. After weeks of delay, the government has begun to withdraw half of its forces from the capital, and over 25% of the requested number of SPLM-IO forces have been installed. Machar has pledged that he will return to Juba once all security arrangements are in place (AU 28/03/2016; UNMISS 01/04/2016).

Sudan–South Sudan

Tensions between Khartoum and Juba have persisted since South Sudan gained independence in 2011. Oil production is of key concern to both countries. Sudanese forces moved towards the border with South Sudan’s Unity and Upper Nile states in July 2015, reportedly in an attempt to protect Sudan’s interest in the oil-rich territory that straddles the border (World Bulletin 13/07/2015). On 30 March, Khartoum closed the border with South Sudan, after only having reopened it at the end of January (Sudan Tribune 31/03/2016). Relations between the two recently deteriorated after each government accused the other of supporting opposition forces (UNHCR 31/03/2016).

At the end of March the South Sudanese government accused Sudanese forces of dropping 24 bombs in Renk county, Upper Nile: Sudan denied the accusation (UNHCR 31/03/2016).

International military presence

The mandate of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) has been extended until 31 July 2016. Force levels have been increased to 13,000 troops and 2,000 police personnel, up from 12,500 uniformed personnel (UN Security Council 15/12/2015; All Africa 20/21/2015). On 15 December the Security Council also extended the mandate of the United Nations Interim Security Force in Abyei (UNISFA) until May 2016 (UN Security Council 15/12/2015). The peacekeeping force was deployed to the disputed border region in 2011.

Conflict developments

Fighting between government and opposition forces as well as intercommunal violence increased in mid-February in areas of Greater Upper Nile. Violence has mostly been concentrated around Malakal (Upper Nile), Pibor (Jonglei) and Leer (Unity). There has also been a surge in conflict in parts of Western Bahr el Ghazal since mid-February. The increase in violence is, likely linked to the onset of the dry season facilitating better mobility, however President Kiir’s proposed restructuring of the country has exacerbated tensions (Sudan Tribune 08/02/2016; 13/02/2016). Since November fighting has also been ongoing in Western Equatoria.

Greater Upper Nile: In late February two major incidents of violence occurred in Greater Upper Nile: in Malakal PoC, Upper Nile, heavy fighting between Dinka, Shilluk and Nuer communities left 25 people dead, over 100 injured and forced thousands of people to flee the site. In Pibor, Jonglei, Government forces loyal to the newly appointed governor clashed with armed youth loyal to the previous governor, who was removed from his position last month. In both incidents critical humanitarian infrastructure was destroyed. The security situation in both areas remains tense (MSF 01/04/2016; IOM 28/02/2016; UNHCR 19/02/2016; UNICEF 24/03/2016).

Bahr el Ghazal: In mid-February violence broke out between government forces and armed opposition groups in the newly created Wau state in Western Bahr el Ghazal. Houses have been looted and burned. There are reports of killings and rape in the area around Wau town. Civilians have been displaced and an unknown injured (Sudan Tribune 12/03/2016; UNICEF 24/03/2016; OCHA 28/03/2016).

Western Equatoria: Tensions escalated in Western Equatoria in the final quarter of 2015 after armed cattle herders brought their livestock to the state, destroying crops and threatening livelihoods. An estimated 80,000 displaced people in Mundri East and West and Ezo counties remain in need of assistance (OCHA 10/02/2016).  Over 15,000 people have fled to neighboring countries (UNHCR 20/01/2016). The SPLM-IO is reportedly preparing for government forces to launch further attacks in the Mundri area (Sudan Tribune 16/03/2016). In February, numerous clashes between government forces and the SPLM-IO were reported in Mundri East and in Ezo counties.  Both the government and opposition forces have been accused of grave human rights abuses in the area, including killings, enforced disappearances, and rape (Human Rights Watch 07/03/2016).

Inter-communal violence

Violence between communities is frequent, but underreported. Ownership of cattle is a common source of tension, particularly among pastoralists (Protection Cluster 25/09/2015; IRIN 15/01/2015). Cattle herders are often heavily armed and connected to armed groups. Cattle moved on to fertile farmland often leads to clashes between herders and the local population (Al Jazeera 21/11/2015).

Displacement

As of February 2016, around 2.3 million people have been displaced, both internally and to neighbouring countries, since December 2013 (OCHA 10/20/2016). Fluid displacement patterns and limited access to rural areas make numbers difficult to verify and registration problematic (UNHCR 18/09/2014).

IDPs

There are an estimated 1.69 million IDPs in South Sudan (OCHA 03/03/2016). Around 50% are children (UNICEF 11/02/2016). The following number of IDPs have been registered in each state:

(OCHA, 18/02/2016).

Unity:  There are around 600,000 people displaced by conflict in Unity state. There are about 124,055 people at Bentiu PoC in Unity, and 22,700 more IDPs registered in Bentiu town; most are sheltering in public buildings (IOM 14/03/2016; OCHA 10/02/2016).

Upper Nile: IDPs who relocated to Malakal town after fighting broke out at Malakal PoC on 17–18 February remain in schools and empty houses with limited access to services (UNICEF 24/03/2016).

Jonglei: Following the violence that took place in Pibor on 23–24 February, 2,000 people remain at the UN base and thousands of others remain hidden in the bush (MSF 01/04/2016; UNICEF 24/03/2016).  

Western Bahr el Ghazal: Reports indicate that between 20,000 and 50,000 people may have been displaced in Wau county after fighting escalated in mid-February. In Mboro town at least 8,000 people are sheltering in public buildings or with host communities. The health situation among IDPs is worsening. Food, water, and shelter are priority needs (UNICEF 24/03/2016; OCHA 28/03/2016)

Western Equatoria: Since late November thousands of people have been displaced by clashes between the SPLA and the Arrow Boys in Ezo, Yambio, Mundri and Tambura counties. Over 20,000 people have fled to neighbouring countries. While around 6,000 people have returned to Mundri town, thousands of people are still hiding in the bush: shelter and NFIs are priority needs. Many people have been displaced multiple times since late 2015 (OCHA 28/03/2016).

Protection of Civilians sites

As of 31 March, 188,184 people are in UNMISS Protection of Civilians sites (PoCs). 116,538 are in Bentiu, in Unity state.  40,500 people are in Malakal: this is a decrease of around 6,000 as many people fled violence at the site over 17–18 February. The populations of other PoCs are mostly stable: nearly 700 people are in Melut, Upper Nile; 28,000 in Juba UN House; and 2,300 in Bor, Jonglei (UNMISS 04/04/2016). 61% of the PoC population are children (OCHA, 04/01/2016).

IDP returnees

In February and March thousands of IDPs reportedly returned home to villages in Duk county, Jonglei, ahead of the upcoming planting season: they are in need of food, NFI, water and shelter assistance (Sudan Tribune 30/03/2016).

Refugees and asylum seekers

There are around 268,350 refugees in South Sudan. 104,300 registered refugees are in Unity and 131,900 in Upper Nile, making up 90% of the total refugee population. 2,400 are in Jonglei, 20,300 in Central Equatoria, and 9,500 in Western Equatoria (29/01/2016 UNHCR). 88% of refugees are from Sudan. The rest are from DRC, Ethiopia, and CAR (UNHCR, 30/10/2015). 

Over 69,900 refugees are in Yida, Unity state, although the number is fluid as people move across the border depending on safety and needs. The South Sudan government wants to close Yida camp and relocate refugees further from the border to Ajuong Thok camp, also in Unity, which has a population of over 31,000 (IRIN 09/02/2016). Since the beginning of the year almost 3,000 people have been relocated to Ajuong Thok (UNHCR 31/03/2016).

South Sudanese refugees in neighbouring countries

Nearly 90,000 South Sudanese have fled the country since the beginning of 2015, bringing the total of registered South Sudanese refugees to around 810,800. 65% are under 17 (UNHCR 18/03/2016).

Sudan: As of 15 March, 197,704 South Sudanese nationals have arrived in Sudan since December 2013. This figure does not include those living with host communities (UNHCR 15/03/2016; 29/02/2016). Since late January, food insecurity has driven more than 30,000 people to cross to Sudan from Northern Bahr el Ghazal and Warrap (UNHCR 29/03/2016).

 (UNHCR 18/03/2016).

Humanitarian access 

The delivery of aid is restricted by fighting, logistical constraints, and administrative impediments (Sudan Tribune 12/01/2016).

Access of relief actors to affected populations

Threats against humanitarian staff and facilities are common, particularly in Unity and Upper Nile and more recently in Western Equatoria (OCHA 29/02/2016; Al Jazeera 15/12/2015). Since mid-2015, attacks on NGO compounds and humanitarian convoys have increased (IOM 05/01/2016).  In 2015, 900 humanitarian access incidents were reported: this is a 17% increase compared to 2014. Active hostilities, mainly in Upper Nile, Unity, Western Equatoria and Lakes regularly restricted humanitarian operations and there were 210 cases of withdrawal of humanitarian personnel or suspension of humanitarian activities (OCHA, 18/01/2016; 23/11/2015). 

Humanitarian actors have been denied access to Wau county in Western Bahr el Ghazal since fighting escalated in February (UNICEF 24/03/2016)

Access of affected populations to assistance

Aid workers have managed to regain access to Leer County in recent weeks, however logistical restrictions and ongoing insecurity continue to hinder response (AFP 12/01/2016).

Security and physical constraints

Most roads are passable, but with difficulty, across Unity, Upper Nile, Lakes, Western Equatoria, Warrap, and Jonglei. Two roads around Pibor in Jonglei are closed (WFP 25/03/2016). Vessels transporting fuel up the River Nile are vulnerable to attack (UN 29/10/2015; Reuters 02/11/2015).

Food security and livelihoods                    

Unprecedented levels of food insecurity have been reported: between January and March 2016 an estimated 2.8 million people are expected to be facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3), Emergency (IPC Phase 4) or Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) food security outcomes (IPC 31/12/2015; UN 08/02/2016). This is a 12% increase from the same time last year (FAO 11/02/2016). The highest levels of food insecurity are in Unity, Jonglei and Upper Nile (WFP 05/02/2016). An additional 200,000 people are reported to have moved from Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in Northern Bahr El Ghazal and Warrap (UN 08/02/2016; WFP 08/02/2016). Around 40,000 people in the central counties of Koch, Mayendit, and Leer in Unity remain extremely close to Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) (WFP 08/02/2016). Many people in Unity have been surviving on water lilies and fruit but these food sources have decreased now that floodwater has receded. Coping mechanisms will be further exhausted throughout the dry season, which is at its worst between April and July (UNICEF 11/02/2016; Amnesty International 25/02/2016). Food security has also deteriorated in the Greater Equatoria region due to market disruption, economic downturn, insecurity, and crop failures. It is the first time that such poor indicators have been reported for the Greater Equatoria region (IPC 10/12/2015).

Food availability

Planting across the country has been affected by conflict, displacement and erratic rainfall. Significant soil moisture deficits have affected crop yields and pasture is declining. Cereal production has reduced in Western Bahr el Ghazal and Eastern Equatoria due to low rainfall, as well as in Western Equatoria were agricultural activities have also been disrupted by the increased insecurity. These areas produce food for much of the country (FAO 17/03/2016).

Food access

Food prices remain at record levels across most markets (FAO 17/03/2016). In December fuel prices recorded the highest ever monthly increase (WFP 15/01/2016). Official currency devaluation of 84% occurred in December 2015 (Bloomberg 15/12/2015). Depreciation of the South Sudanese Pound (SSP) has fuelled an already very high cost of living. Fuel shortages worsened at the beginning of March 2016, causing greater spikes in prices and making it increasingly difficult for traders to move food supplies (WFP 29/02/2016; FAO 17/03/2016). Due to the rising food prices, a growing number of urban poor families are struggling to eat one meal a day (FEWSNET 30/03/2016; UNICEF 11/03/2016).

Over 1,500 IDPs who fled Mundri and Maridi counties in Western Equatoria last year to the newly created Yei River state, are in need of food assistance (Sudan Tribune 23/02/2016). People in the area are resorting to negative coping mechanisms (OCHA 28/03/2016; WFP 11/03/2016).

Health

4.7 million people need health assistance (OCHA 31/12/2015).  Health services are overwhelmed and there is a severe shortage of medical personnel and medicine. Malaria remains the top cause of morbidity in non-conflict-affected states. Acute respiratory infections are the top cause of morbidity among IDPs, at 25%, compared to 18% during the same time last year. The number of reported cases has increased among IDPs in recent weeks (UNICEF 24/03/2016; WHO 13/03/2016).

Healthcare availability and access

Due to overcrowding there is a severe lack of medical supplies in Malakal PoC in Upper Nile, and Bentiu PoC in Unity (Sudan Tribune 28/10/2015). The situation has worsened in Malakal PoC after two health centers were destroyed during the violence that occurred at the site over 17–18 February (UNICEF 10/03/2016). The partial destruction of the MSF centre in Pibor, Jonglei, has restricted capacity to respond to the health needs of the 170,000 people in the area (MSF 04/03/2016). Fighting in February around Mundri town, Western Equatoria, damaged or destroyed health infrastructure, leaving only two functioning health centres in the area (OCHA 28/03/2016).

Malaria

In non-conflict-affected states, malaria accounts for 32% of medical consultations. It remains the most common cause of morbidity in non-conflict affected states  (WHO 28/02/2016). 

Measles

389 suspected measles cases have been reported so far in 2016 (WHO 13/03/2016). Since the start of the year, outbreaks have been confirmed in Mangatain IDP site, UN House PoC, Lakes, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Unity and Warrap states. The caseload is higher than the average over the past three years (WHO 13/03/2016). Only six of 79 counties have the minimum 80% vaccination coverage (OCHA 01/12/2015). Children under five in conflict‑affected states are the most affected (WHO 06/12/2015). 

Hepatitis E virus

Since mid-2015 there has been an increase in the rate of hepatitis E transmission mostly in Bentiu town and Bentiu PoC: 2,523 cases have been reported, including 19 deaths. Cases have also been reported in Mingkamen, Lankien, Melut, Guit, and Leer. Since the beginning of 2016, 276 cases have been reported in Bentiu PoC. The spread of the disease is largely facilitated by poor sanitation (WHO 13/03/2016).

Nutrition

An estimated 4.1 million people are in need of nutrition assistance (OCHA 15/10/2015). Global acute malnutrition exceeds the emergency threshold of 15% in over half the country (UNICEF 14/01/2015). More than 230,000 children are suffering from SAM (ECHO 25/11/2015). SAM rates are above the 2% emergency threshold in all PoCs (WHO 25/10/2015; UNHCR 02/10/2015). The situation is most critical in Unity, Jonglei, Warrap, Northern Bhar el Ghazal, and parts of Eastern Equatoria (WHO 28/02/2016).

In February the number of admissions for malnutrition increased. This is in line with seasonal trends, however the increase was more pronounced than a normal year. 25% of admissions were from Northern Bahr el Ghazal, where there are SAM rates are above 6% (UNICEF 24/03/2016).

Higher rates of malnutrition were recorded inside refugee camps in 2015 than in 2014: this is mainly due to reduced food rations after August 2015, and an increase in malaria and diarrhoea (UNHCR 31/03/2016).

WASH

4.7 million people are in need of WASH assistance (OCHA 31/12/2015).

WASH assistance is urgently needed at Pibor UN base in Jonglei: there is currently only one latrine per 350 people and less than 1.5L per person per day (MSF 04/03/2016).

Water

In Bentiu PoC, the water supply has decreased in recent weeks to 9.7L/p/d: the decrease is due to technical problems with the water pumps (UNCIEF 24/03/2016).

In Rubkona town, Unity, an estimated 30,000 people are without safe drinking water (UNICEF 24/03/2016). In early March the water supply fell below emergency standards at Ajuong Thok camp following the arrival of nearly 3,000 Sudanese refugees (UNHCR 31/03/2016).

Severe water shortages have been reported across Jonglei: in Bor town there is less than 4L/p/d, as the population has grown with the arrival of IDPs (Sudan Tribune 23/03/2016).

Sanitation

Following the destruction at Malakal PoC people are living in highly congested conditions which is leading to poor sanitation and increasing the risk of the spread of disease (IOM 11/03/2016).

Shelter

1.9 million people need shelter and NFI assistance (OCHA 31/12/2015).

Emergency shelter and blankets are needed in Malakal PoC following violence on 17–18 February. Over 22,000 people lost their shelter: 75% of the camp population is living in cramped conditions of only 3m²/person. Others are sleeping in the open (IOM 19/03/2016).

Education

An estimated 1.1 million people need education assistance (OCHA 31/12/2016).  Over 50% of primary and lower secondary age children do not have access to education. Since the outbreak of conflict in 2013 more than 800 schools have been destroyed across the country (UNICEF4/01/2016).

Access and learning environment

Around 400,000 children have been forced out of school by conflict; 70% of schools in Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile are non-functional; 33 schools being used for military purposes (EWEA 01/2016; UNICEF 26/01/2016). 

In Yambio, Western Equatoria, schools are overcrowded because many are hosting displaced children (UNICEF 10/03/2016). In Ajuong Thok camp, Unity, primary schools are also over crowded (UNHCR 16/03/2016).

Teaching and learning

There are reports of classes as large as 100. This falls short of the UNHCR standard of 40:1 (UNMISS 12/11/2015; UNHCR 31/03/2016).

Protection

4.7 million people need protection assistance (OCHA 31/12/2015). Reports of torture, rape and targeting of civilians are widespread (Reuters 20/08/2015; AFP 05/08/2015).

In March at least four incidents of armed looting were reported in Leer county, Unity. There has been a recent increase in instances of armed robbery, violent attacks including sexual violence in the county (MSF 16/03/2016).

Gender

Rape is used as a weapon of war by government and opposition forces (HRW 21/07/2015). More than half of young women aged between 15 and 24 have suffered from some form of gender-based violence (UNHCR 27/11/2015).  In the last two years, the reported number of incidents of gender-based violence has increased five-fold (OCHA 01/12/2015). The abduction of IDP women from outside PoCs continues to be reported (UNHCR 12/06/2015). It is difficult to obtain SGBV figures as people collecting information on SGBV face intimidation and threats (UNHCR 14/07/2015). Early and forced marriage, rape, and domestic violence have been reported in and around PoCs (MSF 08/09/2015). 

Children

A UN Security Council report stated that all parties to the conflict since December 2013 were responsible for grave violations against children, including killing and maiming, recruitment and use, abduction, rape, and other forms of sexual violence (UN 30/12/2014). Child marriage has increased since the outbreak of conflict in 2013. Families facing economic difficulty have used it as a negative coping mechanism (OCHA 01/12/2015).

15,000–16,000 children have reportedly been recruited by armed groups since the conflict began (Protection Cluster 22/11/2015). Waterboarding has reportedly been used to torture children who resist joining armed groups (Reuters 08/12/2015).

There are around 12,200 separated or unaccompanied children. The majority are in Jonglei and Unity states. This is an increase of over 3,000 since the figure reported in early December (UNICEF 24/03/2016; 14/01/2016; 03/12/2015; Protection Cluster 31/12/2015). After the fighting that took place in Malakal and Pibor late February, 300 children were identified as unaccompanied or separated: half are yet to be reunited with families (UNICEF 24/03/2016).

Updated: 05/04/2016

Sudan

Syria Country Analysis

For the latest Briefing Notes, visit the ACAPS country analysis page.

For more information, see the SNAP project’s reports.

Politics and security

The conflict in Syria began in 2011, when fighting broke out between pro-government and opposition forces. Widespread conflict and high levels of violence continue, including indiscriminate aerial bombing by government forces and indiscriminate shelling by armed opposition (UNSC 23/06/2015). Civilians have been subject to direct and indiscriminate attacks, including the widespread use of barrel bombs and other explosives in populated areas (UNSC 18/06/2015). 

An estimated 1,300 civilians were killed in February (SNHR 01/03/2016). According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, 55,000 people were killed in 2015, including 21,000 civilians (SOHR 31/12/2015). More than 270,000 people have been killed since fighting began in March 2011 and more than one million people have been wounded or suffered permanent disability (SOHR 23/02/2016; WHO 01/2016). 2014 saw the highest annual death toll since the war began, with 76,000 people killed in conflict, including 18,000 civilians (SOHR 02/01/2014).

In November 2015, the International Syria Support Group (ISSG), which includes all main international stakeholders, met in Vienna. The talks resulted in agreement on establishing a transitional government within the next six months, and elections within the next 18 months (BBC 19/11/2015). A cessation of hostilities came into effect 27 February. The agreement involves all major Syrian actors apart from IS and JAN. Violations have been reported, but the level of violence is reported to have decreased substantially across Syria (BBC 29/02/2016; Al Jazeera 28/02/2016; UNHCR 06/03/2016). The peace talks resumed in Geneva in mid-March. In mid-March, Russia announced it would start withdrawing from Syria (Reuters 15/03/2016). The next round of peace talks is expected to start on 9 April (AFP 24/03/2016).

Syria’s opposition is calling for a widespread boycott of parliamentary elections, which will be held in April (AFP 10/03/2016).

Stakeholders

Government forces aim to regain territory taken by various armed groups since the conflict broke out in 2011, and to strengthen President Assad’s position. By December 2014, the Syrian Arab Army consisted of an estimated 150,000 troops (ISW 12/2014). Government forces have control of the western parts of Syria bordering the Mediterranean and Lebanon, including Damascus, Tartous and most of Lattakia, in addition to areas in Al-Hasakeh, Aleppo, As-Sweida, Dar’a, Deir-ez-Zor, Hama, Homs, and Idleb governorates (ISW 01/2016).

Islamic State (IS, formerly the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) aims to build a caliphate in Iraq and Syria – and eventually a global caliphate, and to hold and extend the territory it currently holds. According to US officials, IS has an estimated 30,000 troops in Syria and Iraq, with foreign fighters accounting for about two thirds (NBC 28/02/2015). Ar-Raqqa governorate is IS’s stronghold in Syria, and has been under IS control since October 2014. IS holds significant swathes of territory in Aleppo, Al Hasakeh, Deir-ez-Zor, and Homs governorates (ISW 01/2016).

Democratic Union Party (PYD) and People’s Protection Units (YPG): The Syrian Kurdish groups are fighting to establish an autonomous or independent region in the majority-Kurdish areas in northern Syria. YPG claims to have 40,000 fighters (Reuters 14/08/2014). In mid-March, the Kurds declared a federal region in northern Syria, reuniting three Kurdish zones in the area (The Wall Street Journal 17/03/2016). The Kurdish groups have been in de facto control of Kurdish zones in the north since government forces withdrew mid-2012. This includes large areas of the northern parts of Al Hasakeh, Ar-Raqqa, and Aleppo governorates (ISW 01/2015).

Other armed groups are predominantly fighting to overthrow the Assad government and establish a new government, although the various groups differ in their view of this new state. Islamist groups like the Al Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat al Nusra (JAN) seek to establish a state based on Shari’a law, while other groups seek a secular state. Various alliances between armed groups have been formed, both militarily and politically. In October, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) was formed by an alliance including YPG and the Syrian Arab Coalition (ISW 29/12/2015; Reuters 12/10/2015).

International intervention: Hezbollah forces are present in government-held areas bordering Lebanon and have been a key actor in military operations against armed groups in the border areas (ISW 14/09/2015). An unknown number of Iranian troops are also present in Syria (ISW 01/10/2015; Reuters 01/10/2015). A US-led coalition began airstrikes on IS positions in September 2014. Russia launched its first airstrikes in Syria on 30 September 2015 (ISW 19/10/2015; BBC 12/10/2015). Turkish cross-border activities targeted YPG-positions in northern Aleppo governorate mid-February (AFP 14/02/2016).

Conflict developments

The most serious violation of the cessation of hostilities occurred on 2 April around Aleppo when fighting broke out between government forces and non-government forces, including JAN (ECHO 03/03/2016). Nearly 900 breaches of the cessation of hostilities had been recorded as of 31 March (SNHR 31/03/2016).

The cessation of hostilities came into effect on 27 February and has substantially reduced the death toll. Over 170 civilian casualties were reported between 27 February and 27 March, which is the lowest monthly death toll in four years (SOHR 27/04/2016; ICG 01/04/2016). The average death toll in February, prior to the ceasefire, was 120 per day.

Heavy clashes involving IS forces, who are not part of the agreement, are reported in several governorates (BBC 29/02/2016; AFP 29/02/2016). Government offensives in Aleppo and Dar’a governorates in February caused widespread damage to civilian infrastructure and new waves of displacement (ECHO 08/02/2016). IS has claimed responsibility for an increasing number of suicide attacks in cities (SOHR 22/02/2016).

Al Hasakeh: Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) advanced against IS forces mid-February, and have cut two main routes from Ar-Raqqa to Mosul in Iraq. On 20 February, SDF forces seized Shaddadi city from IS – previously an IS stronghold in Al-Hasakeh (SOHR 20/02/2016; AFP 19/02/2016). In early March, clashes resumed between IS and YPG in Shaddadi countryside (SOHR 03/03/2016).

Aleppo: In contravention of ceasefire, government forces are fighting non-government forces around al Eis town in the southern countryside in an attempt to regain its control (SOHR 04/04/2016). Clashes continue between IS and government forces supported by international coalition airstrikes in the northern countryside as IS advances (SOHR 03/04/2016; 29/03/2016). SDF forces are planning to launch an extensive attack on IS areas in the north and northeastern countryside (SOHR 27/03/2016). In early February, government forces, supported by Russian airstrikes, made significant gains (UNHCR 10/03/2016; Al Jazeera 05/02/2016). 

Dar’a: Clashes between an IS-affiliated group and JAN are reported in the western countryside as JAN advances (SOHR 04/04/2016). Clashes are also reported in the northeastern countryside between IS and non-government forces (SOHR 12/03/2016).

Homs: In late March, government forces recaptured Palmyra, which had been occupied by IS since May 2015 (New York Times 27/03/2016). Clashes are ongoing between IS and government forces in northern Homs (SOHR 04/04/2016). Government forces took control of al Qaryatayn city in the southeast (SOHR 04/04/2016).

Lattakia: Heavy clashes are ongoing between IS and government forces in the countryside (SOHR 04/04/2016). 

Deir-ez-Zor: Renewed clashes between government forces and IS are reported in the north and around Deir-ez-Zor town (SOHR 25/03/2016). IS allegedly used mustard gas to advance on the government-held military airport in the east (IB Times 05/04/2016).

Rural Damascus: Clashes are ongoing between Islamic factions and government forces in Eastern Ghouta (SOHR 04/04/2016).

Displacement

IDPs

There are 6.5 million IDPs within Syria, with the largest numbers reported in Rural Damascus and Aleppo governorates (OCHA 31/03/2016).

Since September 2015, government offensives in the northern governorates of Aleppo, Hama, Homs, Idleb, and Lattakia have displaced more than 341,000 people, including 64,000 in Aleppo and 15,000 in Idleb since 1 February (UNHCR 29/02/2016; 21/03/2016; CCCM Cluster 17/03/2016). In the southern Dar’a and Quneitra governorates, 86,000 people have been displaced since November 2015. Over 33,000 IDPs have been reported in Al Hasakeh governorate due to fighting since mid-February (UNHCR 15/03/2016; 28/03/2016). Fighting in Yarmouk Valley, Dar’a governorate, has diplaced an estimated 8,200 people. They are urgently in need of shelter and food. The host community has been overstretched (UNHCR 28/03/2016).

Many IDPs have been displaced twice or more (REACH 26/02/2016).

Refugees

Palestinian refugees in Syria (PRS):  Over 95% of the 450,000 Palestinian refugees who remain within Syria are dependent on humanitarian assistance to meet their basic needs (UNRWA 14/01/2016). Two-thirds (280,000) are internally displaced (UNRWA 14/01/2016).

Iraqi refugees: An estimated 29,000 Iraqi refugees live in Syria (UNHCR 25/11/2014). 

Returnees

74,000 Syrian refugees in Turkey returned to Kurdish-controlled areas in northern Syria in 2015 (OCHA 22/09/2015). Syrian refugees in Jordan are increasingly returning to Syria, as funding shortfalls have led to a worsened humanitarian situation (AP 05/10/2015). 25,000 Syrian refugees left Iraq in 2015, either to return to Syria or continue to Europe (UNHCR 08/02/2016).

Syrian refugees in neighbouring countries

More than 4.8 million Syrians are registered as refugees in neighbouring countries as of March 2016 (UNHCR 28/03/2016). In 2015, more than one million fled Syria. Since the war began, almost 900,000 Syrian asylum seekers have been registered in Europe: more than 500,000 registered in 2015 (UNHCR 31/12/2015).

Turkey: 2.7 million registered refugees (UNHCR 28/03/2016).

Lebanon: 1.07 million refugees (UNHCR 28/03/2016).

Jordan: 640,000 refugees (UNHCR 28/03/2016). Over 47,000 Syrian refugees are stranded at the berm, a sand mound marking the border (UNHCR 15/03/2016).

Iraq: 250,000 refugees (UNHCR 28/03/2016).

Egypt: 118,000 refugees (UNHCR 28/03/2016).

PRS: An estimated 110,000 Palestinian refugees have left Syria (UNRWA, 14/01/2016). 42,000 are recorded by UNRWA in Lebanon and 18,000 in Jordan (UNRWA 14/01/2016).

Humanitarian access

4.6 million people live in hard-to-reach areas (areas not reached with assistance on a regular basis), including up to two million children (UNICEF 10/03/2016). Delivery of aid continues to be hampered by ongoing insecurity and lack of access for humanitarian organisations to government and opposition-held areas (AFP 28/08/2015).

Local and international NGOs report a lack of staff due to Syrians fleeing the country, in particular affecting NGOs that provide health services (IRIN 07/09/2015).

84 humanitarian workers have been killed in the conflict since March 2011 (OCHA 22/12/2015).

Access of affected populations to assistance

4.6 million people live in besieged or hard-to-reach areas (UNSC 27/01/2016). Almost 500,000 civilians, including 200,000 children, live in 18 besieged areas, mainly in Rural Damascus, Deir-ez-Zor, and Idleb governorates. More than half of the areas have been besieged for more than three years (UNSC 27/01/2016; ECHO 11/01/2016; UNICEF 10/03/2016). People in besieged areas lack access to humanitarian assistance, and are in particular need of food, clean drinking water, and health services (UNSC 27/01/2016; Human Rights Watch 08/01/2016).

A UN agreement has allowed for some assistance to reach 10 of 18 besieged areas in February, but the population is still unable to leave these areas (BBC 29/02/2016; HRW 04/04/2016). As of mid-March, 32% of people in besieged areas (150,000) have been reached with aid (OCHA 17/03/2016). UN agencies were only able to reach 1.5% of the population in besieged areas and 7% of the population in hard-to-reach areas during 2015 (OCHA 14/12/2015).

Deir-ez-Zor: The government provided airdrops in late March to 200,000 people in the besieged western part of Deir-ez-Zor city, where there has been almost no humanitarian access since January 2015. Food, nutrition, and health supplies are reported as priority needs (UNSC 27/01/2016; OCHA 21/01/2016; HRW 04/04/2016; TASS 28/03/2016).

Idleb: An estimated 12,500 people in al Fouaa and Kefraya towns are facing a deteriorating humanitarian situation, due to increasing shortages of food, basic commodities, medical items, and fuel. Humanitarian aid was delivered in early March (Red Cross 22/03/2016). The only hospital in the area has stopped operating. Airstrikes have reportedly caused extensive damage to civilian infrastructure, including houses and communication towers. Food, water, and healthcare are priority needs (OCHA 31/01/2016).

Northern Homs: An estimated 120,000 people in northern rural Homs received humanitarian assistance in mid-March. Access roads were cut by government forces mid-January (UNHCR 22/03/2016). Deaths related to lack of medical care have been reported, and the humanitarian situation is expected to continue to deteriorate (OCHA 11/02/2016).

Rural Damascus: 250,000 people in Darayya and in Eastern Ghouta (Douma, Harasta, Arbin, Zamalka, and Zabadin) have not been reached by international assistance since October 2012 and October 2013 respectively. Severe shortages of food and medicine are reported (AFP 23/03/2016; HRW 04/04/2016).

Security and ph​ysical constraints

Humanitarian access has become further affected by the escalation of fighting following the first Russian airstrikes in late September – increased aerial bombardment from all parties is making supply routes more dangerous (AFP 16/10/2015).

Intensified ground fighting and airstrikes in Aleppo governorate since late January have severely restricted humanitarian access: humanitarian organisations suspended activities at the Bab al-Salam border crossing on 4 February due to increased insecurity. Humanitarian access from the north to eastern Aleppo city has been cut off (ECHO 06/02/2016; OCHA 04/02/2016).

Siege tactics are used by all actors in the conflict. Parties to the conflict continue to target public infrastructure and facilities, including water supply and electricity (OCHA 27/08/2015). Electricity is only available for two–four hours a day, or not available at all, in most parts of Syria (UNHCR 08/09/2015). Fuel shortages are severely limiting transportation. Since January 2014, prices of diesel have increased by 110%, and petrol prices by 65% (Logistics Cluster 25/09/2015).

Food security and livelihoods

8.7 million people require food assistance, including 2.5 million severely food insecure in besieged areas (WFP 27/10/2015; 29/02/2016). Food insecurity is a major concern in besieged areas, due to limited food availability, extremely high prices, and a complete breakdown of livelihoods (WFP 29/02/2016).

Food availability

Wheat production in 2015 was estimated to be 40% lower than pre-conflict levels, although higher than in 2014. It is the smallest estimated harvested wheat area since the 1960s (FAO 15/12/2015; FAO/WFP 23/07/2015). Production has been adversely affected by the lack or the high price of agricultural inputs (such as seeds, fertiliser, and fuel), damage to agricultural machinery, irrigation systems, and storage facilities, disruptions in electricity supply, and destruction of standing crops (FAO 15/12/2015; FAO/WFP 23/07/2015; FAO 17/06/2015).

Severe food shortages are reported in besieged areas, causing the population to resort to eating grass and leaves (WFP 31/01/2016).

In Al-Hasakeh governorate, food is becoming less available as the Nusaybin border crossing with Turkey remains closed (WFP 29/02/2016).

Food access

Compared to pre-crisis levels, the price of rice has increased 913%, and the price of wheat 621%. Food prices increased substantially over 2015: between July 2015 and January 2016, the price of wheat increased by 56%, and the price of rice by 29% (WFP 31/12/2015; 01/03/2016). The conflict has affected market functionality across the country, particularly in rural areas (WFP 31/12/2015). In besieged areas, markets are severely disrupted and extremely high food prices are reported: in Deir-ez-Zor, the price of a standard food basket costs 12 times more than in Damascus. Wheat is on average six times more expensive in besieged areas in Rural Damascus compared to Damascus city (WFP 31/01/2015; 01/03/2016; 31/12/2015; OCHA 15/01/2016).

Food prices have spiked in opposition-held areas in Aleppo governorate in early February, after government forces cut a main supply route (The Guardian 06/02/2016).

Livelihoods

More than half of Syria’s population are estimated to be living in extreme poverty (ECHO 09/09/2015). Unemployment stood at 57% the last quarter of 2014; an 8% increase since early 2014 (FAO/WFP 23/07/2015). Gross domestic product has contracted by more than 40%, and exports have fallen by 90%. Oil production has dropped by 96% (World Bank/IMF/AFP 02/12/2014). Insecurity is hampering transportation (FAO/WFP 23/07/2015).

In southern Syria, the most common source of income is engagement in armed groups (CARE 09/02/2016).

Health

11.5 million people lack access to adequate healthcare facilities (OCHA 11/2015). 58% of public hospitals and 49% of primary health centres are only partially functional or closed (WHO 29/02/2016). Only 43% of health facilities are fully operating (OCHA 29/12/2015). Russian and Syrian government forces appear to have deliberately and systematically targeted hospitals over the last three months in the advance on Aleppo (Amnesty International 03/03/2016). The national surveillance system has broken down (Reuters 13/11/2015).

Healthcare availability and access

Health services in Aleppo, Dar’a, Homs, Hama, Idleb and Al Hasakeh governorates have been the most affected by shortages and damage (UNICEF 31/07/2015). The number of available health professionals has fallen to approximately 45% of 2011 levels (WHO 27/03/2015). Local medicine production has fallen by 70% and many lifesaving treatments are not available (WHO 12/11/2015; Health Cluster 30/09/2015). A shortage of ambulances has been reported (Health Cluster 30/09/2015).

Populations living in hard-to-reach or besieged areas have very limited access to healthcare. In rural areas, access to healthcare is adversely impacted by shortage of medicines, medical supplies and sufficient numbers of medical personnel. Health facilities in urban areas are overwhelmed by large numbers of IDPs (Health Cluster 30/09/2015). One out of three children under five was not reached by routine vaccination during 2015 (OCHA 11/2015).

In February, the Health Cluster recorded 30 attacks against medical facilities, most in Aleppo. This is more than double the number recorded in January (Health Cluster 11/03/2016). Since 2011, 697 medical staff have been killed (PHR 18/12/2015). Physicians for Human Rights has recorded 336 attacks on health facilities since the onset of conflict, the vast majority by government forces (PHR 18/12/2015). 2015 was the worst year on record for attacks on medical facilities since the onset of conflict, with 112 attacks recorded (PHR 18/12/2015).

In Aleppo city, 95% of doctors have fled, been detained, or killed. More than two-thirds of the city’s hospitals are no longer functioning (PHR 18/11/2015).

WASH

12.1 million people lack access to adequate WASH facilities (OCHA 11/2015).

Water

70% of the population lack regular access to clean drinking water (OCHA 07/12/2015). Availability of clean water has diminished by 50% since 2012. Many people are receiving only 15% of pre-crisis levels (UNICEF 30/03/2016).  The reliability of urban piped water is severely reduced. Fuel shortages also affect water supply (UNICEF 10/07/2015). 

In Aleppo and As Salamia, Hama, many people are receiving less than 5% of pre-crisis levels of water (UNICEF 10/10/2015). In Quneitra governorate, no drinking water station is functioning. In Hama governorate, no drinking water stations have functioning chlorination (Assistance Coordination Unit 20/02/2016).

Deliberate disruptions to water supply systems are used as a war tactic (UNICEF 30/03/2016).  At least five million people in Aleppo, Rural Damascus, Damascus, Hama and Dar’a governorates were affected by long and deliberate water cuts in 2015 and early 2016 (UNICEF 10/10/2015;  30/03/2016; AFP 04/03/2016). 

Contaminated drinking water in IDP camps in Azaz district, Aleppo governorate, has caused an increase in the number of diarrhoea cases (UNICEF 29/02/2016).

Sanitation

One-third of water treatment plants no longer function, and sewage treatment has halved (PHR 10/2014; WHO/UNICEF 22/07/2014).

Shelter and NFIs 

2.4 million people are in need of shelter assistance, and 5.3 million people are in need of NFIs (OCHA 11/2015; Shelter Cluster 31/01/2016).

Shelter

Limited information is available on the shelter needs of the 7.6 million IDPs (IOM 31/08/2015; Shelter Cluster 29/07/2015). 

98% of IDPs live in unofficial settlements and/or in host communities; 2% live in communal shelters, (IOM 31/08/2015). Buildings are often overcrowded and IDPs lack access to basic services (UNHCR 02/09/2015; IOM 31/08/2015). More than one million houses have been damaged, 400,000 of which have been totally destroyed (UNHCR 02/09/2015).

Displaced people in northern Aleppo governorate along the Syria-Turkey border are in urgent need of shelter, as displacement camps are overstretched following a spike in arrivals in February (OCHA 16/02/2016; 08/02/2016). 8,200 people newly displaced in Yarmouk Valley, Dar’a, are urgently in need of shelter (UNHCR 28/03/2016).

Education

2.7 million children are currently out of school – approximately half of all school-aged children, including 733,000 who have been out for more than a year. Another one million children are at risk of dropping out as a result of insecurity and displacement (UNICEF 01/10/2015; Education Cluster 22/09/2015; UNICEF 15/09/2015; Assistance Coordination Unit 29/02/2016). In areas of prolonged active conflict, enrolment is estimated to be at around 6% (Save the Children 03/2015). Attendance levels have dropped in Homs, Idleb, and Hama governorates following increased airstrikes and ground fighting since late September (UNICEF 10/2015). In Aleppo governorate, children have reportedly stopped attending school due to increased insecurity early February (OCHA 08/02/2016).

Schools are frequently deliberately targeted. One in four (over 6,000) has been damaged, destroyed, occupied, or is used as shelter by IDPs. Only 50% of schools are functional, the least number of functional schools is concentrated in Ar-Raqqa and Deir-ez-Zor governorates. There is a lack of safe learning spaces, adequate WASH facilities and lack of learning material (Education Cluster 22/09/2015; OCHA 01/03/2016; Assistance Coordination Unit 29/02/2016). 52,000 teachers are no longer teaching (UNICEF, 01/10/2015). 

Protection

13.5 million people are in need of protection assistance, including six million children (OCHA 11/2015).

Non-state armed groups and pro-government forces continue to commit human rights violations on a large scale (UN Human Rights Council 11/2014).  Chemical weapons attacks have been reported, including the use of mustard gas (BBC, 06/11/2015; Reuters 18/07/2015; HRW 03/06/2015). More than 17,000 barrel bombs were dropped by government forces in 2015, according to Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR 10/01/2016). Syrian troops found a mass grave in Palmyra containing 42 bodies of people executed by IS (AFP 02/04/2016).

Since 2011, 65,000 people have been recorded as forcibly disappeared by the government: 58,000 are civilians, including human rights activists, journalists, doctors, and humanitarian workers. Detention centres are overcrowded, and detainees are subject to torture and extrajudicial execution (HRC 03/02/2016; HRW 16/12/2015; Amnesty International, 05/11/2015). Since the start of the conflict, 11,500 people have died from torture while in detention (Syrian Network for Human Rights, 26/06/2015).

Journalists and other media workers are systematically targeted. Since the conflict began in 2011, 84 journalists have been killed, more than 90 abducted, and 25 remain missing (Institute for War and Peace Reporting 12/08/2015).

Mines and ERWs

IDP areas in Aleppo governorate are increasingly contaminated by explosive hazards (OCHA 05/03/2016).

Children

Six million children are in need of assistance, triple the number in January 2013 (UNICEF 15/11/2015). Various opposition groups, including JAN, Kurdish groups, and IS have been found to recruit children (HRW 15/07/2015; SOHR 15/07/2015; NOREF 16/02/2015). More than 12,000 children have been killed since 2011 (NRC 06/10/2015). Rates of child marriage and child labour have increased as a result of increasing poverty (UNICEF 10/10/2015).

Gender

Gender-based violence has been committed by all parties to the conflict, including enforced disappearances, forced recruitment, and the use of women as human shields (SNHR 27/11/2015). Sexual violence has been used as an instrument of torture and as a tactic of war (UN News Centre 19/12/2015).

Updated: 05/04/2016

Yemen Country Analysis

Politics and security

Instability and violence continue across the country since conflict escalated in March 2015. Houthis, based in the north, who had been in control of the capital since September 2014, dissolved Parliament in February, and began to advance further south in March. 20 of Yemen’s 22 governorates are directly affected by airstrikes, armed clashes, and shelling (OCHA 22/12/2015).  A Saudi-led coalition began airstrikes in support of pro-government forces in March, and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has exploited the power vacuum to take control of large areas in southeastern Yemen (Al Jazeera 27/02/2016; New York Times 25/01/2016).

Over 6,400 conflict-related deaths and 35,000 injuries have been registered since March 2015 (OCHA 18/02/2016; WHO 21/03/2016). At least 3,081 civilians have been killed and 5,733 injured (OHCHR 04/03/2016). The actual numbers are expected to be much higher due to underreporting (WHO 22/12/2015). Peace talks have not brought any agreement or cessation of hostilities, with the last round of UN-led talks held in Geneva in December. Government and Houthi representatives have agreed to a formal ceasefire from 10 April in the lead-up to a new round of talks scheduled for 18 April (UN 23/03/2016). In early March, Houthis met Saudi government official in Saudi Arabia. The talks resulted in an unofficial ceasefire along the Yemen-Saudi border which decreased clashes, and a prisoner exchange (Critical Threats 08/03/2016; 21/03/2016; 28/03/2016). Mass protests against Saudi-led intervention were staged on 26 March in Sanaa, marking one year since the interventions began (MEE 26/03/2016).

Stakeholders

Pro-government forces, supported by Saudi-led coalition airstrikes, aim to regain control of Houthi- and AQAP-controlled areas. However, the Yemeni army is deeply divided, with units loyal to President Hadi fighting pro-Houthi units (ABC 15/04/2015). Separatists from the Southern Movement have been fighting Houthi forces in the south, yet are increasingly pursuing their own interests apart from Hadi forces (AFP 14/10/2015; Critical Threats 10/03/2016).

The Houthis, also referred to as Ansar Allah, are based in Sa’ada governorate. Factions in the Yemeni army who are allied with the Houthis include members of the former central security force, a unit seen as aligned with former President Saleh (Reuters 12/03/2015; ABC 23/03/2015). This alliance has often been considered pragmatic, and tensions between the two factions are said to be rising (Critical Threats 25/03/2016; Stratfor 23/03/2016). Estimates put the number of Houthi militants at around 20,000–30,000 (Al Jazeera 04/03/2015).

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Ansar al Sharia: AQAP is based in the south and east of the country. Ansar al Sharia has gained a foothold in the south and is believed to be a political branch of AQAP (ICG 27/02/2015). They continue to spread their presence in southern Yemen (Critical Threats 03/10/2016).

Islamic State (IS) carried out several attacks on Shi’ite mosques in Sanaa over 2015. In October, IS attacked the temporary government headquarters and a military installation belonging to the Saudi-led coalition in Aden, its first attack on government and military targets (AFP 07/10/2015; BBC 06/10/2015).

International involvement: A Saudi-led coalition began airstrikes in support of pro-Hadi forces on 26 March 2015. UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, Morocco, Sudan, and Egypt are also members of the coalition (CNN 29/03/2015). The coalition has deployed at least 10,000 ground troops in Yemen – the actual number is likely much higher (ECHO 07/12/2015; Reuters 08/09/2015).  Increasing numbers of foreign mercenaries are also reported (The Guardian 08/12/2015; NY Times 25/11/2015). Saudi Arabia claims that Iran is providing financial and material backing to Houthi militants, a claim Iran denies (Amnesty International 26/03/2015; BBC 22/02/2016). Iran has threatened to increase support, after Houthis and Saudi Arabian officials announced unofficial peace negotiations (Critical Threats 10/03/2016). Lebanese Hezbollah has also been accused by the Yemeni government of backing Houthi militants (Critical Threats 01/03/2016).

Conflict developments

Airstrikes continue in Sanaa, Hajjah, Aden, and Taizz governorates, while heavy ground fighting is ongoing in Hajjah, Al Jawf, Marib, Shabwah, and Taizz, governorates (AFP 15/03/2016; Critical Threats  22/03/2016; 30/03/2016). Airstrikes on AQAP targets have increased in the second half of March, with both Saudi- and US-led airstrikes hitting targets in Lahj, Abyan, and Hadramaut governorates (Critical Threats 29/03/2016).

Aden: Widespread insecurity in Aden continues. Former loyal southern secessionists reportedly pursue their own interests, clash with Hadi forces and launch attacks (Critical Threats 08/03/2016; 16/03/2016). Fighting between AQAP and pro-Hadi forces in Al Mansoura district killed at least 22 people and wounded at least 23 on 12 March, mostly by Saudi coalition-led airstrikes. About 300 AQAP fighters reportedly remain in Al Mansoura (EWN 13/03/2016; Reuters 13/03/2016). On 30 March, pro-Hadi forces and local militia reportedly retook government buildings from AQAP in Al Mansoura (Critical Threats 30/03/2016).

IS has carried out several attacks and three suicide bombings since late January. A triple suicide bombing on 25 March in Shaab and Mansoura districts killed at least 22 people, including ten civilians (AFP 25/03/2016).

Dhaleh: Southern secessionist supporters staged protests in Dhaleh on 24 March. Dhaleh province, created to bridge the north-south divide after Yemen’s unification, is home to many southern secessionists (Critical Threats 30/03/2016).

Hadramaut: AQAP continues to consolidate its presence in the south of Yemen, with the seizure of Al Raydah on 13 March (Critical Threats 15/03/2016). An Al Qaeda training camp in Mukallah was hit by US-led airstrikes on 22 March. At least 50 people were killed and 30 wounded (Reuters 23/03/2016).

Hajjah: Government media reported that pro-Hadi forces successfully reclaimed control of Midi port on 27 March. Houthi forces claim that they repelled the attack, which injured over 400 people (Critical Threats 30/03/2016; 31/03/2016).Saudi-led airstrikes on a market in Mustabaa on 15 March killed at least 106 people and wounded more than 40 (AFP 15/03/2016; UN 18/03/2016).

Marib and Shabwah: Fighting is said to be at a stalemate as of 31 March (Critical Threats 31/03/2016). A missile attack on a hospital in Marib, presumably by Houthi forces, killed three people and wounded 17 on 3 April (AFP 03/04/2016). Pro-Hadi forces began fighting Houthi and Saleh forces in Marib and northern Shabwah on 19 March. So far, pro-Hadi forces have reclaimed control of three small but strategically located towns (Critical Threats 23/03/2016).

Taizz:  Pro-Hadi forces partially broke the Houthi siege of Taizz city on 11 March AQAP may have been involved in fighting for the city (Critical Threats 16/03/2016; 30/03/2016). Clashes were reported at Al Dhabab and Al Saleh gardens, western Taizz as of 31 March (Critical Threats 01/04/2016). Western Taizz city is in the hands of pro-Hadi forces. Over 400 wounded people arrived in emergency rooms of MSF-supported hospitals in Taizz (MSF 16/03/2016). Both sides have reportedly violated human rights and international humanitarian law (OCHA 16/03/2016). Joint Houthi and Saleh forces launched a counter-attack on 19 March, and reclaimed positions in southwestern Taizz city on 22 March (Critical Threats 22/03/2016; 23/03/2016).

Displacement

Over 2.4 million people have been displaced in Yemen since March 2015 – adding to an estimated 800,000 returnees, refugees, and migrants already in need of assistance (Protection Cluster 17/02/2016; OCHA 12/06/2015).

IDPs

More than 50% of an estimated 2.4 million IDPs originate from the five most conflict-affected governorates: Taizz, Amran, Hajjah, Sanaa, and Abyan (Protection Cluster 10/12/2015).

Taizz governorate hosts the highest number of IDPs (392,429), followed by Amran (288,437) and Hajjah (228,453) (ECHO 10/02/2016; Protection Cluster 10/12/2015).

Returnees, refugees and migrants

As of 29 February, around 18,300 arrivals have been recorded since the beginning of 2016 (UNHCR 29/02/2016). Around 92,500 new arrivals were registered in Yemen in 2015 (UNHCR 29/02/2016). Ethiopians transiting through Yemen make up the vast majority; the rest are from Somalia. New arrivals are reportedly generally uninformed by the security situation (UNHCR 29/02/2016). An additional 11,104 asylum seekers have been recorded as of 29 February (UNHCR 29/02/2016).

Refugees: As of 29 February, 267,675 registered refugees are living in Yemen: most are Somali (253,547), and 5,707 are Ethiopian (UNHCR 29/02/2016). Since the escalation of conflict last March, more than 27,000 Somalis and 7,543 Ethiopians have returned to their countries of origin. Around 3,800 Sudanese and 2,000 Djiboutian nationals have also returned (IOM 01/02/2016).

Arrivals from Yemen in other countries

Since March 2015, more than 173,000 people, including Yemenis, refugees (around 59,000), and third-country nationals (TCNs) have left Yemen (IOM 15/03/2016). Some 34,500 had arrived in Djibouti and 31,800 in Somalia (IOM 24/03/2016). 51,000 arrivals have been recorded in Oman, 11,500 in Ethiopia, and 6,100 in Sudan (IOM 15/03/2016). 30,000 Yemenis and 10,000 TCNs have arrived in Saudi Arabia; all but 5,000 have since left Saudi Arabia for other countries (UNHCR 18/01/2016; IOM 01/02/2016; 15/03/2016). 

Humanitarian access

Checkpoints, insecurity, administrative hurdles, import restrictions, and the reluctance of transporters to access volatile areas are hampering the delivery of assistance by both road and sea (OCHA 02/01/2016; NRC 22/03/2016). 7% of Yemen’s 333 districts face severe access constraints (USAID 10/03/2016). Fuel shortages are further hampering operations (OCHA 29/02/2016).

Access of relief actors to affected populations

Humanitarian workers face insecurity and movement restrictions from all parties to the conflict (NRC 22/03/2016). Ten humanitarian workers have been killed since March 2015, and two ICRC staff were abducted (OCHA 24/01/2016; ICRC 01/12/2015). On 29 February, an MSF ambulance was hijacked in Lahj governorate (MSF 01/03/2016). Gunmen attacked an IOM migrant response point in Hodeidah on 9 March. One unaccompanied underage migrant was killed (IOM 11/03/2016). Four Yemeni Red Cross volunteers were wounded by shelling in Marib governorate on 14 March (ICRC 18/03/2016).

Access of affected populations to assistance

Taizz city had been under a de facto siege since the beginning of September, with little to no humanitarian assistance reaching the 200,000 people in the city. Although a food convoy and medicine supplies managed to access Taizz city in January and February, the situation remained critical (USAID 19/02/2016). More supplies trickled in after pro-Hadi forces partially broke the siege in western Taizz, the eastern and northern parts of the city remain under blockade (DW 13/03/2016).

Security and physical constraints

The Hadi government has formally banned ships from entering the country’s waters without prior inspection (IRIN 17/04/2015). 

Few shipping companies are willing to operate in Yemen due to insecurity (OCHA 16/09/2015). Financial institutions are credit for traders shipping goods into Yemen (Critical Threats 07/03/2016).  Agreements at the national level for humanitarian aid to pass through checkpoints, are not always passed on to local levels. Aid supplies are therefore sometimes stuck for weeks (OCHA 01/03/2016). Bridges and roads are frequently damaged in airstrikes (Logistics Cluster 07/03/2016; 24/03/2016). 

Hodeidah airport and Ras Isa terminal are closed as of 24 March (Logistics Cluster 24/03/2016).

As of 24 March, main access challenges are in Sa’ada and Hajjah governorates due to airstrikes and artillery barrages. Constraints are also heavy on the frontlines of Marib, Sana’a, Taizz, Amran, and Al Jawf governorates (Logistics Cluster 24/03/2016). As of 29 March, access to Taizz remain largely restricted; the Aden–Taizz road is closed, the Mokha–Taizz road is closed and Al Turbah–Taizz and Ibb–Taizz roads are difficult to access due to fighting or a restriction on relief cargo (Logistics Cluster 29/03/2016).

National average fuel prices remain over 55% higher than pre-crisis levels (WFP 29/02/2016). Fuel prices in Taizz remain the highest due to conflict (WFP 29/02/2015).  The fuel shortages are creating severe challenges for the transportation of food, water, and medical supplies, and the operation of water pumps and generators (FAO 31/01/2016). 

Food security and livelihoods

More than half of the population, 14.4 million people, are food insecure – two million more than in June 2015, and four million more than before the escalation of conflict. 7.6 million people are severely food insecure (FAO 09/03/2016; OCHA 23/03/2016). The food security situation is particularly concerning for the IDP population (WFP 12/2015). Ten out of 22 governorates face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels, (USAID 19/02/2016; WFP 23/03/2016). Another ten governorates face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels. Hadramaut and Al Mahrah governorates face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels (FEWSNET 29/03/2016). These will likely persist until at least September (FEWSNET 31/03/2016).

Food availability

Yemen ordinarily imports 90% of its staple foods, but imports of these foods have significantly decreased since the escalation of conflict (OCHA 29/05/2015; WFP 29/02/2016). Prices for staple foods have gone up by between 40% and 160%, with the highest price rises in southwestern governorates (FAO 22/03/2016). The Central Bank is cutting subsidised credit for staple imports, which may lead to a further reduction of imports (Critical Threats 07/03/2016).

A 30% reduction in the cereal harvest is estimated in the key cropping regions (central highlands, southern uplands, and western coastal plain) compared to previous years (FAO 31/01/2016). Wheat and meat products are only sparsely available in 15 governorates (FEWSNET 29/03/2016).

Food access

Despite local harvests improving the market situation, access to food has not significantly improved due to low household purchasing power among the poor and IDP populations (FEWSNET 31/03/2016). In Taizz governorate, wheat prices increased 70% in February (WFP 29/02/2016). In March, prices of wheat flour in Sanaa increased 12% compared to the previous month, and 7–9% in Sa’ada and Hajjah (FEWSNET 31/03/2016).

The Yemeni rial is expected to depreciate over the next months, leading to an increase in food prices and prices of agricultural inputs. As agriculture is an important livelihood activity for the majority of Yemenis, this could further stress food access (FEWSNET 31/03/2016).

The central bank has ended its de facto subsidy of rice and sugar imports. The bank was covering all the country’s import needs of medicine, wheat, rice, sugar and milk, at the official exchange rate, until mid-February (Reuters 19/02/2016; Critical Threats 22/02/2016).

Livelihoods

By September 2015, over one-quarter of businesses in Yemen had closed; two-thirds had laid off half of their workforce (OCHA 01/02/2016). In Taizz city, 80% of shops have closed (Amnesty International 09/02/2016). The Social Welfare Fund, which provides financial assistance to poor households, has stopped functioning, affecting nearly eight million direct and indirect beneficiaries (UNICEF 21/03/2016). Only 13% of households still have access to international remittances (UNDP 28/03/2016).

The agricultural sector, which employed over 50% of Yemen’s workforce, has been severely disrupted. Livestock production has declined because of scarce animal feed, forage, and veterinary drugs (FAO 22/03/2016). Irrigation, transport, and marketing costs have risen due to high fuel prices (FAO 22/03/2016).

The fishing sector has faced increasing difficulties: fishing boats are reportedly targeted by militia, especially in Hodeidah, Taizz, and Hajjah governorates. An estimated 65% of fishermen have lost their livelihoods, along with 650,000 casual workers engaged in packing, storage, or transportation (FAO 31/01/2016).

Desert locust infestations have been identified on the southern coast of Yemen. The infestation might move inland (FAO 25/03/2016).

Health

14.1 million people lack access to adequate healthcare – five million more than before the escalation of conflict (OCHA 23/03/2016).

Healthcare availability and access

At least 600 health facilities – almost 25% of facilities – have closed due to damage, shortage of supplies or lack of staff (OCHA 18/02/2016; WHO 17/03/2016). Health facilities have suffered more than 100 attacks since March last year (WHO 21/03/2016). According to MSF, hospitals are perceived to be targets for airstrikes and largely avoided unless there are emergencies (MSF 18/01/2016). 11 health workers have been killed and 17 injured in airstrikes and attacks (WHO 21/03/2016).

There is a critical shortage of health staff (WHO 15/01/2016; 17/03/2016).

Ambulance services are not functioning in most areas that are heavily affected by conflict due to fuel shortages and security threats. Militias have commandeered ambulances (MSF 22/01/2016). 

Medicines for diabetes, hypertension, and heart diseases are not available and there are acute shortages of critical medical supplies – trauma kits, medicines, blood bags and other necessities (OCHA 12/06/2015; WHO 17/03/2016; 21/03/2016). The national oncology centre in Sanaa is on the brink of closure for lack of staff and supplies (WHO 21/03/2016). Two out of six blood transfusion centres have shut down since March 2015 (WHO 21/03/2016).

There is an increasing worry for the health of an estimated 500,000 pregnant women who will give birth in the coming months. Due to a lack of health services, maternal deaths are expected to increase (UNFPA 30/03/2016).

Taizz governorate’s health system has collapsed, affecting 3.2 million people. As of January none of Taizz’s 20 hospitals are fully operational, and only six are partially functioning (WHO 07/01/2016). 

Nutrition

Three million people are in need of nutrition assistance, and 2.1 million people are malnourished (OCHA 22/11/2015; 23/03/2016). Almost 1.3 million children are malnourished, including 320,000 severe acute malnutrition (SAM) cases (UNICEF 26/01/2016). In addition, 1 million children are expected to suffer from moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) in 2016, compared to 690,000 before the crisis (UNICEF 25/01/2016). 220 nutrition service facilities have closed due to insecurity and lack of supplies (OCHA 01/02/2016).

In Hajjah governorate, GAM is at 20.9%, and SAM is at 3.8% (OCHA 15/10/2015; FEWSNET 29/03/2016). Lahj also faces 20.5% GAM in lowland areas (FEWSNET 29/03/2016). An assessment in Hodeidah governorate found 31% GAM, 9% of whom are severely malnourished – a significant increase from 18% GAM in 2014 (UNICEF 25/08/2015). An August assessment found 19.3% GAM in in Aden governorate (OCHA 19/02/2016). 

WASH

19.3 million people – 3 in 4 Yemenis – lack access to safe drinking water and sanitation (OCHA 23/03/2016). Almost ten million people have lost access to safe water due to fuel shortages (OCHA 18/02/2016; 05/06/2015). Diesel needed to deliver public water and sanitation is not available, or only sporadically available, in 20 of 22 governorates (OCHA 13/07/2015). 

Sanitation

Solid waste collection has been suspended and sewage treatment plants have reduced operations in several major cities (OCHA 19/01/2016). Garbage has been accumulating on the streets, due to fuel shortages and lack of access – Taizz governorate is particularly affected (OCHA 02/02/2016). Government services are unable to collect waste from dump sites due to significantly reduced capacity (UNDP 26/01/2016).

Shelter and NFIs

2.8 million people are in need of shelter and NFIs (OCHA 23/03/2016). Shortages have led to an increase in commodity prices, as well as transport costs (Shelter Cluster 31/12/2015).

Shelter

Housing available for rent is becoming increasingly limited and costly; in some areas rental prices have tripled. 42% of IDPs are staying in rented houses (Protection Cluster 17/02/2016). 46% of IDPs are in public areas, schools, abandoned buildings or makeshift shelters (Protection Cluster 17/02/2016; Shelter Cluster 15/03/2016).

IDPs staying with host families (8% of IDPs) are reporting overcrowding, lack of food, and lack of adequate WASH facilities (OCHA 18/12/2015; Protection Cluster 17/02/2016). An evaluation among around 1,000 IDPs in Raidah and Kharif districts, Amran governorate, found only one shared latrine in each of the three visited settlement (Shelter Cluster 28/03/2016).

NFIs

An evaluation among IDPs in Raidah and Kharif district found that IDPs are not benefiting from emergency shelter items that have been distributed so far. They highlight the need for plywood, NFIs, lights, and plastic sheeting for privacy (Shelter Cluster 28/03/2016).

Education

1.8 million children are estimated to have lost access to school as a direct consequence of the current conflict (OCHA 18/02/2016). An estimated 1.6 million children were already out of school (UNICEF 17/11/2015; OCHA 18/02/2016). Registration and attendance rates are low (30–70%) in most governorates (UNICEF 17/01/2016). 

Over 1,600 schools are closed due to continued insecurity (UNICEF 21/03/2016). Almost 800 schools have been damaged, including 174 destroyed. Some 58 schools are occupied by armed groups, and 205 are hosting IDPs (Shelter Cluster 15/03/2016). The Saudi-led coalition has stated that schools are legitimate targets if used for military purposes, and have targeted school buildings (Amnesty International 11/12/2015; Global Coalition to Protect Education from Attack 11/06/2015).

Protection

14.1 million people are in need of protection assistance, four times the number before the escalation of conflict (OCHA 23/03/2016). 13,080 human rights violations have been reported since March 2015, an average of 41 reports per day (OCHA 18/02/2016). Reports of gender-based violence have increased by 70% since last March (OCHA 31/12/2015).

Use of explosive weapons in populated areas, attacks on civilian infrastructure, increased recruitment of children, and attacks against humanitarian workers have been reported (Human Rights Watch 10/01/2016; OCHA 19/06/2015; AFP 15/03/2016). In 2015, at least 6,119 civilians died or were injured by the use of explosive weapons, the highest number in the world (AOAV 25/02/2016). Armed groups have detained children, carried out extrajudicial executions, and subjected detainees to general ill-treatment (Human Rights Watch 02/09/2015).

Three journalists have been killed since the start of 2016; ten were killed in 2015 (International Federation of Journalists 29/03/2016). Media agencies are frequently raided, and journalists targeted, tortured, and harassed (International Federation of Journalists 09/02/2016; BBC 18/01/2016).

Mines and ERW

Cluster munitions have been used by Saudi-led coalition forces in at least five governorates (Human Rights Watch 22/03/2016). At least 13 governorates are contaminated by unexploded ordnance (UXO) and landmines. Anti-personnel mines have been reported in Abyan, Aden, Marib, Lahj, and Taizz (HRW 27/01/2016; OCHA 16/03/2016). Lack of access is hampering mine action response (OCHA 14/01/2016).  

Children

7.4 million children are in need of protection assistance (UNICEF 21/03/2016).  At least 930 children have been reported killed and 1,350 injured since March – the majority in Saudi-led airstrikes (OCHA 23/03/2016; Save the Children 10/02/2016). 

At least 848 children have been recruited by armed groups since the escalation of the conflict (UNICEF 29/03/2016). Houthis, Ansar al Sharia, AQAP, and government forces are reported to be recruiting children (Watchlist on Children and Armed Conflict 01/10/2014).

Vulnerable groups

The Muhamasheen minority (about 10% of the population) suffer marginalisation and have greater humanitarian needs than most of the rest of the population. Muhamasheen mainly live in the cities most affected by conflict, including Aden, Taizz, Hodeidah and Sa’ada, and many have been internally displaced. Displaced Muhamasheen fled to open farmland, parks, and public spaces (Minority Rights Group 13/01/2016; International Dalit Solidarity Network 01/10/2015; UNICEF 20/02/2015).

Migrants en route to Saudi Arabia are vulnerable. 89% of migrants in reception centres in Hodeidah and 94% of migrants in reception centres in Aden report human rights abuse. This includes theft, GBV, trafficking, arbitrary detention and physical violence (IOM 26/01/2016; USAID 19/02/2016; UNHCR 31/01/2016).

Updated: 04/04/2016

Burundi

Politics and security

High levels of political instability and frequent violence persist in 2016, having begun in April 2015 with demonstrations opposing President Nkurunziza’s intention to run for a third term. The security situation deteriorated rapidly after Nkurunziza’s re-election at end July with violent incidents frequently reported, particularly in the capital Bujumbura (IRIN 12/10/2015; AFP 08/12/2015). Violence escalated in December and left between 87 and 154  people dead, bringing the total number killed since April to at least 743 (OCHA 07/03/2016; AFP 23/01/2016). Fears are mounting that the conflict could degenerate further after 100 bodies were found in mass graves following December violence (OHCHR 15/01/2016).

Political instability

Large protests denouncing Nkurunziza’s candidacy for a third term were held between April and July 2015, mostly in Bujumbura (OCHA 12/05/2015; AFP 05/06/2015; Reuters 18/05/2015). An attempted coup led by the former head of intelligence failed, after two days of intense clashes in May (BBC 13/05/2015). Several top officials fled the country, including the Vice President and head of parliament (AFP 28/06/2015; 25/06/2015). In March 2015, a new wave of army defections was reported (ICG 01/04/2016).

Parliamentary and presidential elections in June and July were widely declared as not credible. The ruling party won a majority of parliamentary seats and Nkurunziza was re-elected with 69% of the vote. Turnout was low, with 17 opposition parties boycotting the polls (AFP 07/07/2015; 27/07/2015). On 1 August, opposition leaders met in Addis Ababa to form a coalition, the National Council for the Restoration of the Arusha Accords and the Rule of Law (CNARED) (IRIN 12/10/2015). On 20 August, President Nkurunziza was sworn in for a third term (AFP 20/08/2015).

In the months following Nkurunziza’s re-election, the government categorically ruled out negotiations and redoubled its targeting of opposition (AFP 23/09/2015). Dissidence has shifted from protest to armed violence against security forces. Regular grenade attacks against civilians add to a climate of fear (ACLED 13/12/2015). Preliminary peace talks between opposition and government representatives began 28 December in Uganda and stalled (DW 06/01/2016; AFP 19/01/2016; AFP 23/02/2016).

Recent incidents

February saw the worst violence since December with multiple violent incidents involving grenades. On 26 February, six people were injured in grenade attacks in Bujumbura (AFP 26/02/2016). Over the night of  21–22 February, four people were killed and 11 injured in separate grenade attacks in Bujumbura – just hours before the UN Secretary General was due to arrive (AFP 22/02/2016). At least seven people were killed and another 99 injured in five separate grenade attacks in Bujumbura over Feb 2-15 (AFP 15/02/2016; MSF 16/02/2016; AFP 11/02/2016; AFP 07/02/2016; AFP 03/02/2016; Reuters 02/02/2016).

International pressure

A string of high level delegations and human rights observers, including the UN Secretary General, have visited Burundi and met with government and opposition representatives to push for dialogue and political settlement – none have succeeded (IRIN 02/03/2016).

Both the EU and AU have imposed sanctions on individuals in Burundi (AFP 29/09/2015; AU 17/10/2015). On 14 March, the EU announced the suspension of direct aid to Burundi’s government over democracy and human rights concerns, but will maintain humanitarian assistance (EU 14/03/2016).

International concern over insecurity in Burundi has been growing. Although an AU proposal to send a 5,000-strong peacekeeping mission was abandoned in January, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution in April to explore options for UN police deployment to Burundi (Reuters 02/04/2016; UN 01/04/2016; AFP 22/12/2015; 30/12/2015; AU 06/02/2016).

Regional tensions

Relations between Burundi and Rwanda, which the government accuses of backing opposition forces, are souring – Rwanda has denied any involvement (AFP 23/10/2015). On 13 February, around 4,000 people in Bujumbura protested alleged Rwandan aggression and interference in Burundi’s domestic affairs (AFP 13/02/2015). A day earlier, Rwanda had announced it was taking steps to relocate Burundian refugees in its territory – who number over 70,000 – to third countries (AFP 12/02/2016). On 7 October, Burundi ordered a Rwandan diplomat to leave the country, heightening tensions between the two countries (Jeune Afrique 13/10/2015).

Economic situation

Already facing the lowest GDP per capita in the world, Burundi’s GDP shrunk 7.2% in 2015 (IRIN 12/02/2016). International partners funded 50% of Burundi’s pre-crisis budget but have been withdrawing since the onset of political turmoil. Foreign resources now only account for 30% of the budget (UNICEF 31/01/2016). Overall, the 2016 budget has been reduced by 18% compared to 2015: health, education, WASH and protection services are expected to suffer (Reuters 13/12/2015; UNICEF 31/01/2016).

Natural disasters

Heavy rains, floods and landslides

Heavy rains, landslides, and flooding affected some 30,000 people across 11 provinces between September and December 2015 (OCHA 29/01/2016). As of 11 February, the Burundi Red Cross had recorded 63 deaths, 104 injuries, 3,501 destroyed houses, 99 destroyed schools, 10,053 hectares of devastated agricultural fields, and 42 destroyed bridges due to natural hazards, mostly flooding (Burundi Red Cross 11/02/2016). 14 provinces remain at risk of El Niño-induced heavy rains through the wet season, which ends in May (OCHA 29/01/2016).

Displacement

The political crisis since April has displaced more than 250,000 Burundians to neighbouring countries; internal displacement has been limited, but is growing (UNHCR 04/03/2016; OCHA 12/11/2015). The needs of around 200,000 protracted IDPs, returnees and DRC refugees are exacerbated by the current crisis.

IDPs

Tracking of internal displacement resulting from current political violence has been difficult as IDPs are reluctant to identify themselves for fear of retribution (OCHA 13/10/2015; ECHO 17/12/2015). The latest estimates indicate 85,000 IDPs, including both those who have moved due to the political situation and those displaced by flooding. 29% are concentrated in Bujumbura Mairie – which is increasingly segregated between pro-government and pro-opposition neighbourhoods. The southeastern border provinces of Makamba, Rutana, and Gitega host over 36% of the IDPs. Some 48,000 people have been identified as host community members (OCHA 07/03/2016).

As of January 2015, Burundi already had 77,600 protracted IDPs, mostly ethnic Tutsis, living in and around 120 sites in northern and central Burundi (IDMC 31/01/2015).

Refugees and asylum seekers

Burundi remains host to some 53,977 refugees from DRC, mainly in the border regions of Ngozi, Ruyigi, Muyinga and Cankuzo (UNHCR 31/07/2015; OCHA 07/03/2016). Refugees have been requesting relocation since the beginning of the political crisis (UNHCR 05/06/2015).

Refugee returnees

79,000 Burundian returnees who fled past conflicts were going through a slow reintegration process in April, including 43,000 who had been forcibly repatriated from Tanzania. Most have not been registered due to a lack of reception facilities, while tensions have risen with host communities over land ownership issues (IOM 01/2014; HCT 24/04/2015). 

Some spontaneous returns have taken place since April 2015, but data on newly returned refugees is lacking (UNHCR 04/03/2015).

Burundian refugees in neighbouring countries

As of 4 March, over 250,000 Burundian refugees are registered in Tanzania, Rwanda, DRC, Uganda, and Zambia (UNHCR 04/03/2016).  UNHCR estimates 330,000 Burundians will have sought refuge in neighbouring countries by the end of 2016 (UNCHR 16/12/2015).

Tanzania: 135,829 Burundian refugees have arrived in Tanzania since April 2015 (UNHCR 31/03/2016). Arrivals averaged around 200 per day in January, 150 per day in February, and 125 per day in March. Around 75,000 Burundian refugees are in Nyarugusu camp, which remains overcrowded. Nduta camp was opened in October with capacity for 50,000 new and relocated refugees: it is now over capacity, hosting 53,000 refugees. On 14 January, a new site at Mtendeli started receiving refugees: it currently hosts 5,300 refugees (UNHCR 31/03/2016).

Rwanda: 75,700 Burundian refugees are registered in Rwanda. Approximately 48,421 are in Mahama camp. Another 23,563 are living in Kigali, and 2,855 are in Huye district (Southern province). Two reception centres at Bugasera and Nyanza, as well as a transit centre in Nyagatare, temporarily host small refugee populations (UNHCR 27/03/2016). Refugees are reportedly being forcibly recruited by Burundian opposition groups and sent to military training camps in Rwanda and DRC (Refugees International 14/12/2015).

DRC: 18,382 Burundians refugees have been registered in DRC (UNHCR 31/10/2015). Around 14,000 are hosted in Lusenda refugee site in South Kivu (AFP 23/01/2016).

Uganda: 23,848 Burundian refugees have been received in Uganda since November 2014. 18,052 are in Nakivale settlement and 4,889 are registered as urban refugees in Kampala. Smaller populations are in Kyaka II and Oruchinga settlements, and in Kisoro district (UNHCR 29/03/2016).

Zambia: Almost 1,200 Burundian refugees have fled to Zambia since the onset of the crisis (UNHCR 04/03/2016).

Humanitarian access

Access is problematic in Burundi, not only in rural areas where humanitarian presence remains weak, but also increasingly in the capital where political divisions and insecurity are complicating response (OCHA 07/03/2016). 

Access of relief actors to affected population

The highly politicised nature of the conflict is having a direct impact on relief actors’ access to affected populations. Fear of reprisals is preventing humanitarian actors from delivering aid to contested areas of Bujumbura (OCHA 07/03/2016). The ban on independent media is hindering aid agencies’ ability to communicate with communities in need of assistance (OCHA 17/09/2015; IOM 09/10/2015). In January, a team of UN mandated independent human rights experts were reportedly refused entry to Burundi (IRIN 29/01/2016). 

International humanitarian presence outside the capital is particularly constrained, although the Burundi Red Cross has a strong reach nationwide (OCHA 13/10/2015).  In rural areas, agencies have been reliant on communicating via an emergency hotline, where affected individuals can report humanitarian needs (OCHA 21/12/2015).

Access of affected populations to assistance

Asylum seekers report difficulty leaving Burundi. Women have reported SGBV incidents while in transit to countries of asylum (UNHCR 15/01/2016).

Security and physical constraints

Security constraints have been applied to multiple areas across Burundi, including Bujumbura Mairie and Bujumbura Rural, where moderate to elevated security warnings have been assigned (OCHA 07/03/2016). Bujumbura’s Mutakura, Citiboke and Musaga neighbourhoods, which have been the scene of multiple grenade attacks and political contestation, are facing elevated security risks. International humanitarian actors require armed escorts to travel along two main road axes to the northeast and northwest of the country (OCHA 07/03/2016). 

Access is increasingly difficult in areas affected by heavy rains, flooding and landslides. 37 bridges have been destroyed by disasters since 25 January (Burundi Red Cross 03/02/2016).

Food security and livelihoods

35% of the population are food insecure, including almost 700,000 people facing severe food insecurity (OCHA 07/03/2016; FSMS 12/2015). WFP’s food assistance stocks are stretched (WFP 03/12/2015). In conflict-affected Bururi, Citiboke, Kirundo, Muyinga, Makamba, Mwaro, and Rumonge, many households face Crisis or Stressed (IPC Phases 2 or 3) food insecurity outcomes (FEWSNET 29/03/2016).

Food availability

Displacement and restricted movement in conflict-affected areas have limited labour opportunities, access to fields, and inputs. As a result, overall Season A harvests are expected to be 10% below average despite good rains since October. Prospects for the upcoming Season B harvests, which run March–May, are poor (FEWSNET 29/02/2016).

Food access

Insecurity is keeping food prices well above long-term averages in worst affected areas. Staple food prices, including maize and beans, are well above average and expected to continue rising through June as food stocks will exhaust early (FEWSNET 29/02/2016). 98% of IDPs do not have access to sufficient quantities of food (IOM 31/01/2016).

Livelihoods

Insecurity has proven a major disruption to livelihoods. There are reports of people selling their harvest early and at low prices in order to seek asylum in neighbouring countries. Seasonal workers have been impeded by insecurity (OCHA 13/10/2015). Shopkeepers in Bujumbura report fewer customers following grenade attacks that resulted in damage and closure of some shops in violent hotspots (IRIN 12/02/2016).

Health

Cracks are beginning to appear in the health system as political volatility and budget constraints hamper the government’s ability to provide services (Guardian 16/02/2016). Stocks of essential medicines are falling rapidly due to supply chain interruptions, while access to and use of primary health services is being prevented by insecurity (OCHA 13/10/2015). There is a risk of a nationwide shortage of essential medicines (UNICEF 31/12/2015).

Cholera

Burundi faces a high cholera risk as health services and WASH conditions deteriorate. 22 cases of cholera were reported in Nyanza Lac district between 9 December 2015 and 8 January 2016, but none have been reported since (UNICEF 31/01/2016; 31/03/2016).

Malaria

El Niño-induced weather conditions, including heavy rains and flooding, are contributing to the resurgence of malaria across Burundi (Burundi Red Cross 02/03/2016). 1,615,000 cases are reported. The number of cases is high compared to previous years, although incidence was reducing as of end March (UNICEF 31/03/2016).

Nutrition

Malnutrition has increased with food insecurity and deterioration of health services. The number of children admitted for treatment for severe acute malnutrition in Bujumbura doubled between October and December 2015 (UNICEF 31/01/2016). Country-wide, an estimated 50,000 children under five suffer severe acute malnutrition (OCHA 07/03/2016).

WASH

International humanitarian actors have identified WASH as a priority in the context of the political crisis and potential cholera outbreak. However, austerity measures have seen the water ministry’s budget cut by 85% compared to last year. All 342,000 people in need of WASH assistance are targeted in the humanitarian response plan (OCHA 07/03/2016).

Shelter and NFIs

Some 196,000 people are estimated to need shelter assistance, including those displaced due to the political situation and/or natural disasters, as well as affected host communities whose shelter situations are becoming strained (OCHA 07/03/2016).

Rents in calmer areas of Bujumbura are rising as people move to seek safety from attacks in restive districts (IRIN 12/02/2016). 93% of IDPs have not received NFI assistance. Three-quarters express a need for materials to repair or reinforce their shelters (IOM 31/01/2016).

Education

Some 212,500 children, youths and teaching personnel are estimated to be in need of humanitarian education assistance (OCHA 07/03/2016). Cases of exclusion from secondary school on the grounds of students’ political affiliation have been reported from Muyinga province (UNICEF 29/07/2015). In most areas hosting IDPs, fewer than 50% of children can access school (IOM 31/01/2016).

The rains have damaged 30 schools in Makamba, Ruyigi, and Bubanza provinces, leaving 7,300 children without adequate learning environments (UNICEF 31/12/2015).

Protection

The protection environment continues to deteriorate, with both sides suspected of serious human rights violations. Amnesty International issued satellite images showing six mass graves in Bujumbura dug in December, following a government crackdown on opposition support. In February, three bodies were found in what is suspected to be a mass grave of 30 pro-government victims (AFP 29/02/2016).

4,700 human rights violations have been recorded since the onset of the crisis (OCHA 07/03/2016). Imbonerakure – the ruling party’s youth wing – is accused of severe abuse, including torture, threats, and intimidation (Amnesty 24/08/2015; Reuters 04/10/2015; AFP 04/10/2015). 263 cases of torture and ill treatment have been reported since April 2015 (OCHA 29/01/2016). 2,000 prisoners, including elderly, sick and children – but not political prisoners – are in the process of being released after being pardoned by President Nkurunziza in February (UNHCR 15/03/2016; UNICEF 31/03/2016). On 18 March, at least five bodies were discovered in what seems to be a mass grave at Mutakura (Local media 21/03/2016).

Almost all independent media outlets have been closed (HRW 01/12/2015). Journalists are reportedly facing violence and intimidation from authorities and members of the Imbonerakure (CPJ 26/08/2015, RSF 30/04/2015). Over 100 journalists have fled the country (International Federation of Journalists 18/11/2015). Two foreign journalists from Voice of America and Le Monde were briefly arrested in Bujumbura in late January (AFP 29/01/2016).

People fleeing persecution face intimidation and arrest while travelling to neighbouring countries to seek protection (Guardian 04/12/2015).

Gender

The UN documented 13 cases of sexual violence against women, including rape and gang rape, during search and arrest operations in December (OHCHR 15/01/2016). There are reports of increasing numbers of women being detained if their male relatives cannot be found (UNHCR 15/02/2016).

Children

At least 21 children have been killed since unrest broke out, most as a result of gunshot or grenade wounds (UNICEF 31/12/2015). Both pro- and anti-government forces have reportedly pressured children to join violent clashes, and their detention after protests and violence presents a major protection risk (Al Jazeera 01/12/2015; UNICEF 31/12/2015). 250 children have been arbitrarily detained since April 2015 (OCHA/UNICEF 07/03/2016).

Updated: 05/04/2016

Chad Country Analysis

Politics and security

The National Electoral Commission announced on 23 January that Chad will hold presidential elections on 10 April 2016 (AFP 23/01/2016). Idriss Déby has been Chad’s President since 1990, winning further elections in 1996, 2001, 2006, and 2011. Stability has largely improved since 2010 when civil war ended (IDMC 24/10/2014). However, conflicts in Nigeria and Central African Republic have increasingly affected stability in Chad. Chadian troops have carried out military operations against Boko Haram (BH) and are involved in a Multinational Joint Task Force, whose aim is to improve coordination between regional militaries fighting BH (UN 22/12/2015). Chad also hosts 3,000 French troops, deployed to tackle the increasing insecurity in the Sahel region (Reuters 11/07/2015).

Protests and demonstrations have intensified ahead of the April elections (ICG 30/03/2016). On 8 February, over twenty people were arrested while demonstrating for access to the civil service in N’Djamena. As of 15 February, people have been protesting over a gang rape, allegedly committed by the sons of senior government officials; two were killed and five injured as Chadian soldiers tried to break up the protests (AFP 18/02/2016; 28/02/2016). The opposition promoted a lockdown in N’Djamena and five other cities on 24 February: schools and shops remained closed and markets were empty in protest against the government (AFP 28/02/2016; 24/02/2016). On 11 March, several hundred students protested against outstanding scholarship payments in Moundou, Chad’s second largest city. Police broke up the protests; six students were arrested (AFP 11/03/2016). The government has placed a ban on all demonstrations outside of the presidential campaign. Four civil society leaders were arrested in the week of 20 March, as they called for peaceful demonstrations against Déby (AFP 22/03/2016; 23/02/2016). As a result, civil society movements have called for unlimited strikes, starting on 29 March (RFI 28/03/2016). The first day of striking has mostly affected hospitals in N’Djamena, as one of the arrested civil society leaders was the manager of the public hospital (Jeune Afrique 29/03/2016; RFI 29/03/2016) and hospitals were unable to see patients, as  departments lacked workers and had to close down (BBC 30/03/2016).

Boko Haram

Boko Haram (BH) launched its first cross-border attack in Chad in February 2015 (Al Jazeera 14/02/2015). Chad and regional militaries have responded with operations against BH, but regular attacks on civilians continued throughout 2015. In July, Chadian forces pushed BH back from the country’s islands in Lac region (Vice News 28/07/2015).

A state of emergency declared on 9 November in Lac region was extended until 22 March 2016, voiding government predictions BH would be defeated by end 2015 (Reuters 06/10/2015; OCHA 30/11/2015). The intensity and frequency of BH suicide bombings in Chad increased during 2015, with women and girls being used in 75% of attacks in the region (UNICEF 30/11/2015). While violence in 2016 has decreased, BH continues to deploy tactics including kidnapping, raids, and suicide bombings (ICG 30/03/2016). The latest suicide bombing killed three people and wounded 56, on 31 January (OCHA 02/02/2016). Due to the ongoing violence, an estimated 257,000 people are in need of assistance in Lac region (OCHA 29/02/2016).

A Multinational Joint Task Force (MJTF), which would bring at least 8,700 forces from Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Cameroon, and Benin under a common command, is operational in the region. (UN 22/12/2015).

Displacement

There are around 570,000 displaced people in Chad in need of protection and humanitarian assistance, including over 375,000 refugees: mainly long-term refugees from Sudan and CAR, plus newer arrivals from Nigeria. The BH conflict in Lac region, and the CAR conflict to the south has caused recent displacement of around 116,000 people (OCHA 11/02/2016; 29/02/2016; CCCM Cluster 25/03/2016).

IDPs

Lac region has witnessed multiple waves of displacement. In the first wave, January–June 2015, 11,000 Chadians were internally displaced in Lac region and over 11,000 returned from Nigeria to escape BH (OCHA 11/02/2016). A second wave of displacement has taken place since 21 July 2015. Local authorities and the CCCM cluster have registered approximately 50,000 IDPs (OCHA 11/02/2016; CCCM Cluster 05/03/2016). During a multi-sectoral evaluation mission, over 56,600 newly displaced were found in Liwa and Daboua sub-prefectures (OCHA 11/02/2016). The IDPs in Liwa and Daboua sub-prefectures have received little to no assistance since June 2015, due to insecurity and lack of access to sites (OCHA 11/02/2016). According to local media, most international humanitarian actors operating in the area also have severe funding deficits, leaving IDPs in severe need of shelter, food and medicine (local media 16/03/2016). A rapid evaluation mission found around 10,600 IDPs spread over two sites in Kangalam sub-prefecture. They have not received any assistance (CCCM Cluster 25/03/2016).

New displacements take place on a regular basis, making accurate and updated assessment of IDP numbers and needs difficult (UNICEF 31/12/2015). The displaced in Liwa and Daboua sub-prefectures are spread across at least 22 sites that recently became accessible (OCHA 11/02/2016; 25/01/2016). Access to new sites is difficult and the need for humanitarian assistance remains urgent (OCHA 11/02/2016; 18/01/2016). The IDP population is larger than the host population in Fourkoloum, Tchoukoutalia and Ngouboua (WFP 22/01/2016).

Nearly 85,500 IDPs are living in protracted displacement in the east, facing difficulties accessing shelter, land, and income-generating activities after their assistance was downscaled in 2014. Progress towards durable solutions for these IDPs is not monitored, making assessment of their humanitarian need difficult (IDMC 02/2015; OCHA 19/11/2013).

Refugees and asylum seekers

Chad hosts the world’s seventh largest refugee population, with over 375,000 refugees. Most are from Central African Republic, Nigeria, and Sudan (UNHCR 29/02/2016).

From Central African Republic: 65,961 refugees, mostly in camps in Logone Oriental, Moyen-Chari, and Salamat regions (UNICEF 31/01/2016; 29/02/2016).

From Nigeria: 6,641 refugees. (UNHCR 29/02/2016). Around 4,600 of them are living at the Dar es Salam site in Lac region (UNHCR 29/02/2016). Another 1,300 live in Ngouboua camp (UNHCR 29/02/2016). Many are dispersed among host communities, where they try to access economic activities (UNHCR 18/11/2015).

From Sudan: 301,728 refugees, living in protracted displacement (UNHCR 29/02/2016). Most are in eastern Chad (Ouddaï, Wadi Fira, Sila regions), some in large refugee camps in Bredjing (41,000) and Goz Amer (31,000) (UNHCR 29/02/2016). On 21 September, UNHCR and the governments of Chad and Sudan reportedly signed a tripartite agreement for the voluntary repatriation of 300,000 Sudanese refugees in Chad and 8,500 Chadian refugees in Sudan. According to local media, Sudanese refugees in Chad reject the scheme and are not prepared to return to Darfur (Radio Dabanga 20/11/2015). Immediate return prospects are still weak (OCHA 31/01/2016).

Returnees

Large numbers of Chadians have returned from neighbouring countries due to conflict.

Over 90,000 returnees from the Central African Republic live in eleven sites and host communities in southern Chad (OCHA 31/01/2016; UNICEF 29/02/2016). While they are in need of livelihood, shelter, health and education assistance, funding is not sufficient to continue assistance. Statelessness and lack of administrative papers hinders the reduction of their dependency on aid, as it is more difficult to move and find jobs (UNICEF 31/01/2016; 29/02/2016).

The BH conflict in Nigeria has forced at least 12,000 Chadians to return since January 2015 (CCCM Cluster 05/03/2016). 3,400 returnees from Nigeria are living in the Dar al Nahim site, near Dar es Salam (OCHA 20/10/2015).

Humanitarian access

Infrastructure, conflicts and insecurity are driving major access constraints in Chad (OCHA 31/01/2016). Border closures have affected trade, while humanitarian actors struggle to access populations in the most affected areas, particularly Lac region, where a state of emergency was declared in November 2015 and is still in effect.

Security and physical constraints

Chad’s southern border with CAR has been closed to all except Chadian citizens since 2014 (Al Jazeera 13/05/2015; US Government 30/09/2015). Access in southern and eastern Chad is difficult during the rainy season (June-Oct), and because of security incidents (OCHA 31/01/2016). The border with Nigeria remains de facto closed due to BH violence (UNICEF, 23/10/2015). In Lac region, access is limited in areas west and south of Bol and Bagasola towns due to security and logistical constraints (UNICEF 31/01/2016).

Access of relief actors to affected populations

Shrinking humanitarian space has negatively impacted the number of actors and staff, coordination mechanisms, needs assessment, and delivery of assistance in Lac region (UNICEF 31/01/2016).

Access of affected populations to assistance

Islands to the west and north of Baga Sola face major access constraints due to insecurity. Populations from these areas face difficulties reaching Baga Sola and Bol towns, where important services including hospitals are located (UNICEF 31/01/2016). Displaced people both fleeing insecurity and seeking economic opportunities are highly mobile and difficult to reach (OCHA 15/01/2016).

Food security and livelihoods

At the beginning of 2016, over 3.4 million people were food insecure, 5% more than in 2013 or 2014 including around 707,000 severely food insecure (OCHA 31/01/2016; 09/03/2016). The severely food insecure are mainly spread across five regions: Bahr el Gazal (85.3%), Sila (54.8%), Guera (54%), Batha (51.6%), and Wadi Fira (46.5%) (OCHA 31/01/2016). 117,000 people in Lac region are severely food insecure as well (OCHA 29/02/2016). In parts of southern Chad, there is an unseasonal increase in overall food insecurity, particularly in Eastern Logone and West Mayo-Kebbi (OCHA 31/01/2016). Most households in Chad are in IPC Phase 1 (FEWSNET 31/12/2015).

By the 2016 lean season in June 4.3 million will be food insecure, including 1.6 million people severely food insecure (WFP 29/02/2016; UNICEF 26/01/2016).

Food availability

The lean season in 2015 was long, and even beyond the November 2015 harvest food availability was lower (OCHA 31/01/2016). Many households went through a difficult year in terms of food, especially in the Sahelian belt. Deficits in cereal stocks and pastoral production in Kanem, Bahr El Ghazal, Bartha, Nord Guera, and Wadi Fira are attributed to the delayed onset of the rainy season, and uneven distribution of rain across the Sahelian zone (FEWSNET 29/02/2016; FAO 08/03/2016). Cereal stocks were already exhausted in February instead of the usual April-May, in Guera, Kanem, Sila, Wadi Fira and Lac (FEWSNET 29/02/2016). Productivity of millet and sorghum crops, key staples, has been atypically low (FAO 14/12/2015).

A deficit of almost 98,000 metric tons is expected for the 2015-2016 crop season. Cereal production is expected to decrease 12% compared to the previous season and 10% less than the five-year average (OCHA 31/01/2016; FAO 08/03/2016).

Food access

Poor households in various departments in Guera, Kanem, Sila, Wadi Fira, and Lac, face an atypical rise in grain prices. Low production in Wadi Fira and insecurity in Lac contribute to this rise (FEWSNET 29/02/2016). In Bol, Lac region, this is exemplified by the price of one kilo of maize, which was 15% higher in early January than in December (FEWSNET 29/02/2016; WFP 22/01/2016). The grain market supply in Bol is well below average due to insecurity (FEWSNET 29/02/2016). Because of food insecurity, people resorted to negative coping strategies long after the late 2015 harvests (OCHA 31/01/2016).

Large refugee influxes from Sudan, CAR, and Nigeria has put additional pressure on local food supplies (FEWSNET 29/02/2016; OCHA 11/02/2016). Local communities in Lac region almost exhausted all grain reserves at household levels, as food needs to be shared with refugees and IDPs (FEWSNET 29/02/2016). This is expected to be particularly problematic after March, when stocks will be depleted (FEWSNET 29/02/2016). Refugees from Sudan and CAR, and displaced populations in Lac region remain heavily reliant on food assistance (FEWSNET 29/02/2016; OCHA 31/01/2016).

Livelihoods

Insecurity in the Lac region has taken a major toll on livelihood opportunities (UN 30/11/2015). Pastoral activities are lower than average, due to the drying up of ponds in eastern Chad and lower grazing levels (FEWSNET 29/02/2016). Due to the influx of refugees and IDPs, there is an excess of agricultural labourers. Competition between local workers and the large displaced population have cut average daily wages for agricultural labour to half of December 2014 levels (FEWSNET 31/12/2015).

Water is increasingly scarce in southern and northern regions. Pastoralists struggle to find water for their animals (FEWSNET 06/02/2016). The closure of the Nigerian border, due to BH violence,  impedes trade and livelihoods in western Chad (FEWSNET 29/02/2016). Cattle and fishing have particularly suffered from insecurity (FEWSNET 31/12/2015). Fishermen are forced to move to the lake’s arms, where there are less fish (OCHA 13/01/2016).  The average daily salary of agricultural workers around Bol was halved in February (1,000 CFA), compared to 2015 (2,000 CFA) (FEWSNET 29/02/2016).

Health

1.3 million people are in need of health assistance (OCHA 30/11/2015). Displaced populations and host communities face immediate health needs in Lac region. Acute respiratory infections, dermatitis and acute diarrhoea are the most common pathologies (OCHA 30/11/2015). While the number of cases of malaria, meningitis, and measles declined over 2015 compared to the previous year, the mortality rate for these epidemics was higher.

Malaria: Malaria still affects the most people: at the end of 2015, 702,925 cases were confirmed (OCHA 31/01/2016). Nomads, fisherman, refugees, and the population of Lake Chad islands are vulnerable to malaria, as they have limited access to clinics and trained professionals (UNDP 10/03/2016).

Measles: At the end of February, 238 suspected measles cases were reported, with two deaths. Three health districts experience measles outbreaks, in Salamat, Guera, and Mandoul regions. In these regions, 24 cases are confirmed, 121 cases suspected as of end February (UNICEF 29/02/2016). Measles are endemic to Chad.

Health access and availability

The number of health facilities remains insufficient (OCHA 18/01/2016). In Lac region, several new mobile health clinics are needed to provide access to primary healthcare for at least 14,500 people in Koudouboul, Melia Kalidar, Tagal, and Kanembou spontaneous sites. Health centres in Fourkoloum, Tchoukoutalia and Ngouboua are under pressure due to recent IDP arrivals and need support (OCHA 11/12/2015). Two-thirds of the IDP sites in Liwa sub-prefecture do not have primary healthcare (OCHA 11/02/2016). Funding shortages caused humanitarian actors to stop healthcare activities in Djako and Kobiteye Maingama sites, where returnees from CAR reside. Returnees do not have access to primary healthcare (UNICEF 29/02/2016).

Needs for Sudanese refugees in eastern Chad remain high. Refugees face recurring epidemics but low capacities of health facilities and lack of medicines (OCHA 31/01/2016). Refugees in Jebel camp, eastern Chad, have reported high fees for hospital patients imposed by the Chadian government, as well as soaring prices of medicine (Radio Dabanga 28/02/2016).

Nutrition

SMART nutritional survey results from November 2015 put global acute malnutrition at 11.7% in Chad. Seven northern and central regions are above critical GAM thresholds of 15%, and six others are above serious levels of 10% (UNICEF 31/01/2016; WFP 29/02/2016). Over 2016, fifteen regions are expected to be above emergency thresholds (UNICEF 31/01/2016).

Currently, 30,000 children in Lac region suffer from severe acute malnutrition (SAM) (OCHA 29/02/2016). In 2016, an estimated 728,000 children will suffer acute malnutrition and will need humanitarian assistance, including an estimated 320,000 cases of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) (UNICEF 26/01/2016; 29/02/2016; OCHA 09/03/2016).

At two Kousseri IDP sites, 30% of children are reportedly suffering from MAM (WFP 22/01/2016). 17 of the 22 identified sites in Liwa and Daboua lack treatment facilities for acute malnutrition (OCHA 11/02/2016).

WASH

One million people are in need of WASH assistance in Chad (OCHA 30/11/2015). While 52% of Chadians do have access to safe drinking water, access varies widely from region to region. In the northern Tibesti for example, only 5-18% of the population has access to safe drinking water (SADC 22/01/2016).

Displaced populations in Lac region are in urgent need of WASH assistance, particularly in Fourkoloum, Tchoukoutalia, Liwa and Daboua (OCHA 11/02/2016; 11/12/2015). 66% of water needs and 60% of latrine needs are not met in displacement sites (OCHA 11/02/2016; 18/10/2016). In Liwa and Daboua sub-prefectures, poor water quality is increasing the risk for waterborne diseases. Only 22% of water needs are met. Hygiene is also lacking, with no infrastructure for hand washing, utensils for water conservation or treatment products (OCHA 11/02/2016). 10,600 newly identified IDPs in Kangalam sub-prefecture do not have any latrines (CCCM Cluster 25/03/2016).

Suspension of activities for CAR returnees, due to funding shortages, is affecting WASH. Latrines gradually fill without renewal, and WASH structures built in Djako and Kobiteye Maingama sites are not well managed (UNICEF 29/02/2016).

Shelter and NFIs

90% of IDPs in Lac region have not received shelter support, leaving approximately 50,000 people in need of assistance. Gaps persist in the distribution of NFIs and shelter at Fourkoloum and Koulkime (OCHA 18/01/2016). Emergency shelter assistance is urgent for over 20,000 IDPs in five sites in Liwa and Daboua (OCHA 11/02/2016). NFIs and other essential commodities are a priority for over 24,000 IDPs in the same area (OCHA 11/02/2016).

Education

Countrywide, 37% of the school-aged population are out of school (WFP 31/10/2015). There is a national shortage of teachers (OCHA 30/11/2015). There are acute needs in Lac region, where 30% of schools remain closed due to insecurity and lack of teachers (OCHA 18/01/2016). Some 53,200 children in Lac region are estimated in need of emergency education (OCHA 27/01/2016).

Protection

BH violence involves killing and maiming civilians, forced recruitment of women and girls to carry out suicide bombings, and looting and burning of villages. Concerns have been raised over arbitrary arrest and detention of BH suspects, enforced disappearances, and extrajudicial killings at the hands of Chad’s security forces (UN 30/01/2016). IDPs are vulnerable to attacks of militias; armed groups have attacked three of the identified 22 sites in Liwa and Daboua (OCHA 11/02/2016).

Children

In Lac region, 104,000 children are reportedly affected by the crisis (OCHA 28/01/2016). At least 73 unaccompanied children and 116 separated children are recorded in Dar es Salam camp (OCHA 20/10/2015). Child protection spaces are lacking in Koulkime, Fourkoloum, Tchoukoutalia, and Ngouboua sites (OCHA 18/10/2016).

Cases of child labour have been recorded in the Daboua and Liwa IDP sites (OCHA 11/02/2016).

Gender

Full faced veils have been banned, following June attacks in Ndjamena that sparked fears of female suicide bombers concealing explosives under their garments (BBC 10/10/2015). 13,000 women and girls are estimated to need protection assistance (OCHA 06/01/2016).

Although the government launched a campaign in 2015 to end the common practice of child marriage, large numbers of underage girls continue to undergo forced marriage (UNICEF 20/11/2015). Early and forced marriage has recently been recorded in IDP sites in Liwa and Daboua (OCHA 11/02/2016).

Documentation

Profiling and registration of the displaced in Lac region has not yet reached all spontaneous sites, making identification of needs challenging (OCHA 07/10/2015). Approximately 85% of locations have been profiled (OCHA 18/01/2016).

Chadian returnees from the Central African Republic experience difficulties in accessing livelihood activities due to statelessness and administration matters (UNICEF 31/01/2016).

Update: 31/03/2016 

Colombia

Politics and security

Colombia’s armed conflict has spanned five decades, pitting the central government, right-wing paramilitaries, and left-wing guerilla groups such as the Armed Revolutionary Forces of Colombia – People’s Army (FARC-EP) and the National Liberation Army (ELN) against one another. Paramilitary groups underwent a partially successful process of disarmament and demobilisation between 2003−2006, however many post-demobilised armed groups remain active.  

The latest FARC-EP–Government peace negotiations began in November 2012 in Havana, Cuba (Reuters 18/08/2015). The 23 March deadline for an agreement was missed (AFP 24/03/2016). While agreement has been reached on the key points of the agenda, including reparations and justice for the victims and the establishment of a special tribunal, disagreement remains over the issue of disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) of FARC (BBC 24/03/2016). If the peace agreement is signed the government expects to demobilise between 20,000 and 40,000 members of FARC (Colombia Reports 11/01/2016; 21/12/2015).  The government has pledged that the Colombian public will be asked to give a vote of approval or rejection to any peace deal through a plebiscite in the spring of 2016 (El Espectador 09/02/2016). Both parties have announced they have invited the UN to monitor an eventual bilateral ceasefire, the disarmament process, and the end of the conflict (AFP 20/01/2016; BBC 19/01/2016). At the end of March thousands of people who do not support negotiations with the FARC, protested in major cities against the peace talks (Colombia Reports 02/04/2016).

The intensity of the armed conflict has decreased substantially since the peace negotiations began. The FARC-EP’s unilateral ceasefire began on 20 July. Although this ceasefire has been violated on at least four occasions, military activity between the two parties has almost completely ceased (Colombia Reports 22/09/2015).  The head of FARC has ordered a halt to recruitment and the purchasing weapons (El Espectador 10/10/2015; BBC 11/11/2015). 

The ELN has been involved in exploratory talks about beginning peace talks with the government since June 2014, and on 30 March the government announced the beginning of formal peace talks with the group (AFP 31/03/2016).

Venezuela–Colombia relations

On 19 August, Venezuela closed its border to Colombia due to security concerns. More than 1,600 Colombians were deported and another 160,000 returned voluntarily (AFP, 22/08/2015). On 29 September, the Venezuelan government agreed to let the deportees return and legalise their status (Colombia Reports 24/09/2015; AFP 22/09/2015; Voice of America 29/09/2015). The border remains partially closed and commercial and transit activities have not returned to normal (El Espectador OCHA 31/01/2016). 

Stakehol​ders

FARC-EP: The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia – People’s Army (FARC-EP, or FARC) is the oldest left-wing militant group in Colombia. It was formed in 1964 by the Colombian Communist Party, as fighting between the liberal and conservative parties led to rural unrest. Approximately 7,000 fighters make up the FARC-EP today, which allegedly makes USD 500–600 million profit from the illicit drug trade (UNRIC 2013; BBC 29/08/2013). FARC-EP has been active throughout the country, but especially in Arauca, Meta, Norte de Santander, Cauca, and Antioquia. 

ELN: The National Liberation Army is a left-wing militant group formed in 1965 and composed of an estimated 2,000 fighters. In January 2015, it stated that it intended to join peace talks and would consider disarmament (AFP 07/01/2015). Preliminary discussions between the ELN and the government continue. The ELN has been active in Arauca, Norte de Santander, Nariño and Cauca departments (Kienyke 2013).

Government forces: The government’s strategies to combat non-state armed groups have been closely linked to eliminating the cultivation of illicit crops in the country, which finances the armed groups.  

BACRIM and post-demobilised armed groups: Criminal gangs (bandas criminals, or BACRIM) under the names Urabeños, Black Eagles, and Erpac, among others, are generally made up of former paramilitary fighters. They are involved in drug trafficking and extortion throughout Colombia, Venezuela and Panama. These groups are particularly active in Antioquia department, and the Pacific and Caribbean regions (BBC 29/08/2013).

Conflict developments

Since May 2015, the ELN has intensified its operations in the departments of Arauca, Norte de Santander, Chocó, Antioquia, and Boyacá. (OCHA 31/10/2015).  The ELN conducted a series of small scale attacks on state infrastructure in February 2016 in attempt to pressure the government in to formalizing peace talks (BBC 09/02/2016; New Republic 01/04/2016). On 30 March, the government announced the beginning of formal peace talks with the ELN (AFP 31/03/2016)

In the northwest, conflict over control of drug-trafficking routes continues between the Urabeños, FARC, and ELN (Colombia Reports 22/10/2015).  Clashes between the ELN and the Urabeños in the Alto Baudo municipality in Chocó displaced between 400 and 900 people between 24 and 29 February. A further 900 people are confined to their homes (AFP 23/03/2016; Colombia Reports 29/02/2016; Semana 01/03/2016).

As the peace process progresses and FARC begins to withdraw from certain areas, there is a risk of changing dynamics. Other armed groups have already moved into areas previously held by FARC. This will cause further humanitarian consequences (Colombia Reports 29/02/2016; OCHA 30/11/2015). For example, since negotiations began between FARC and the government, the Urabeños, has reportedly almost doubled its territory, settling in areas previously controlled by leftist armed groups. The ELN is also reported to have increased its presence in areas along the Pacific coast previously held by FARC, particularly in the department of Cauca (Colombia Reports 22/03/2016; 23/03/201).  

In the first two weeks of March, 29 left-wing community leaders based across the country were assassinated by post-demobilised armed actors, in what has been perceived as an attempt to undermine peace talks. Between 31 March and 2 April, the Urabeños, in a show of force, conducted a series of attacks against state infrastructure and ordered businesses, transport networks and schools to close for 72 hours across the northern provinces (Colombia Reports 04/04/2016; 01/04/2016). The government has pledged to intensify military operations against these groups (Colombia Reports 14/02/2016).

Natural disasters

The El Niño phenomenon is considered the strongest in 18 years and is now expected to last through June, causing both drought and flooding. It is expected to get worse in the coming months (AFP 14/01/2016). 

Drought and wildfires

On 1 October, Colombia declared a state of emergency due to drought, which is expected to affect the country until June 2016 (AFP 14/01/2016). The most drought-affected departments include La Guajira, Bolivar, and Magdalena in the north, Valle del Cauca on the Pacific coast, Boyacá, Santander and Cundinamarca in the centre, and Tolima and Quindío in the west (UN 04/12/2015; El Espectador 11/02/2016; 02/12/2015).

On 28 December the government declared a red alert for low water levels in the country’s two major rivers: the Rio Magdalena and Rio Cauca supply water to hundreds of towns and cities across 23 departments (TelSUR 30/12/2015; Reuters 30/12/2015). Red alerts also remain in place across the country due to increased risk of forest fires. In 2015 more than 100,000 hectares of agricultural land were destroyed in wildfires, including in Boyacá, Santander and Cundinamarca (Latin Correspondent 31/12/2015). Since the start of 2016 there have been over 1,500 forest fires: over 60,000 hectares of land have been affected (Redhum 29/03/2016).

There are currently water shortages in 124 municipalities across Colombia (Government 06/01/2016). A fifth of Colombia’s municipalities are already under water rationing measures (Redhum 08/01/2016).

Two Wayuu children in La Guajira department have died from malnutrition in the past week. The department has been severely affected by drought for three years but in recent months the situation has further deteriorated. Over 100,000 livestock have died and over 226,000 hectares of land devastated (El Espectador 22/02/2016; Al Jazeera 03/02/2016; Redhum 03/02/2016).

Displacement

IDPs

An estimated 166,000 people were displaced by conflict or natural disaster in 2015: almost half are children (OCHA 31/01/2016). Indigenous and Afro-Colombian communities represent more than half of the total displaced population (OCHA 31/01/2016).

Communities in regions affected by armed conflict are frequently temporarily or permanently displaced, due to clashes between armed groups and security forces, or fear of potential clashes. This particularly affects indigenous groups in Antioquia, Chocó, Cauca, Valle del Cauca, and Norte de Santander departments (OCHA 31/01/2016; 5/11/2015). 60% of all IDPs are in Antioquia, Valle del Cauca, Cauca, Narino and Chocó (OCHA 31/10/2015). Buenaventura, in in Valle del Cauca, has the highest rate of forced displacement in Colombia (Human Rights Watch 04/03/2016).

On 24 February over 100 people, including 73 children, were attacked and forcibly evicted from land in Uraba, Antioquia by a local armed group (Colombia Reports 24/02/2016). In late February an unknown number of people were also displaced from their homes in Nariño in Cauca department, due to fighting between the FARC and the ELN (NRC 25/02/2016).

Between 24 and 29 February up to 900 people were displaced in the Alto Baudo municipality in Chocó due to clashes between the ELN and the Urabeños (Colombia Reports 29/02/2016; Semana 01/03/2016).

Colombian refugees in neighbouring countries

360,000 Colombian refugees in neighbouring countries (Colombia Reports 22/06/2015).

Costa Rica: 16,620 refugees and 210 asylum seekers;

Panama: 15,550 refuges and 800 asylum seekers;

Venezuela: 5,000 refugees, 168,500 unregistered refugees and 250 asylum seekers;

Ecuador: 121,320 refugees and 11,580 asylum seekers (UNHCR 30/06/2015).

Humanitarian access

In 2015, over two million people were affected by access and mobility constraints. Events related to armed violence caused 66% of incidences of restricted movement. Most events occurred in the departments of Caqueta, Nariño, Valle del Cauca, and Cauca (OCHA 31/01/2016).

Indigenous and Afro-Colombian communities are disproportionately affected by limited movement and access to assistance. In Chocó department over 3,000 people in the municipalities of Riosucio and Carmen del Darién, and over 10,000 residents in the Bajo Atrato area, are experiencing restricted movement due to the presence of armed groups (Colombia Reports 22/10/2015). People are unable to pursue agricultural livelihood activities, as travelling presents a constant risk (OCHA 31/10/2015). 

Food security and livelihoods

1.2 million people are food insecure, due to low food production, poverty, and internal displacement (OCHA 20/01/2015). 557,000 require food assistance. Indigenous communities in Nariño, in the southwest, are among the most affected (OCHA 20/01/2015). 

Severe drought as a result of El Niño is affecting Colombia’s coffee output, threatening the livelihoods of farmers in Nariño department (Colombia Reports 05/11/2015).

Indigenous groups in La Guajira are particularly vulnerable to the Venezuela border closure, as many live and work on both sides. Although they are being permitted to cross, further restrictions may impact their food security and livelihood situation (El Espectador 13/01/2016; IFRC 18/12/2015). Fuel shortages are reported in the border departments, as almost all fuel in the region is imported from Venezuela (Colombia Reports 24/09/2015).

Nutrition

In 2016, over 30 children under five died from malnutrition: most cases were in the northern departments of La Guajira and Magdalena and the central department of Tolima (TeleSur 28/03/2016; El Espectador 06/03/2016). Malnutrition is of particular concern among the indigenous Wayuu communities in La Guajira: 15,000 children are estimated to suffer from malnutrition (TeleSur 08/02/2016). Between 2011 and 2015 the mortality rate among children under five associated with malnutrition increased by 50% (Colombia Reports 16/02/2016; Redhum 11/02/2016).

Health

2.5 million people need health assistance (OCHA 30/09/2015).

Since last October, at least 43,000 suspected cases of mosquito-borne Zika virus have been registered (The Wall Street Journal 09/03/2016). The virus could affect as many as 600,000 people according to Colombia’s health ministry. Most cases are in Huila, Valle del Cauca and Norte de Santander (PDC 23/03/2016). Around 7,600 cases are among pregnant women, which is concerning because of a potential link between Zika virus and microcephaly, a condition that causes severe birth defects. A causal link is also suspected between Zika and Guillian Barré syndrome (a rare nerve disorder): Colombia reports an average of 242 cases of Guillain Barré syndrome a year, however over 80 cases were reported in the first five weeks of 2016 and three people have died from the syndrome (The Wall Street Journal 09/03/2016; WHO 12/02/2016).

WASH

1.75 million people need WASH assistance (OCHA 30/09/2015).

Water

Only 35.5% of the population consumes safe drinking water, with only 15% of rural areas consuming treated water (OCHA 20/01/2015).

238 of Colombia’s 1,123 municipalities are facing severe water shortages due to drought: La Guajira, Bolívar, Valle del Cauca, Caldas, Cundinamarca, Cauca, Magdelena, Boyacá, Cesar, Huila, and Tolima are among the most affected. Water is being stored in unsafe facilities, causing an increase in the likelihood of the spread of mosquito-borne diseases (OCHA 30/09/2015). 

Around 300 people who left their villages in Bolívar department in search of water because of severe shortages in the area. The displaced are currently living in temporary shelters in the town of Bolívar (OCHA 17/03/2016; El Espectador 22/02/2016).

Shelter and NFIs

1.48 million people need shelter (OCHA 30/09/2015). Many of those displaced by armed conflict come from rural areas and have difficulty re-obtaining rights to their homes when they return. A legal process is in place in the departments of Atlántico and Magdalena in the north, though some claimants have received threats from paramilitary groups (Amnesty International 23/01/2015).

Protection

3.8 million people need protection (OCHA 30/09/2015). Torture and ill-treatment in various forms are common in Colombia, and measures for protection and compensation are either limited or ineffective (Red Cross 04/06/2015).

Mines and explosive remnants of war

In 2015, 217 people were victims of ERW: around 30% were civilians (OCHA 31/01/2016; 27/10/2015). There have been frequent reports of landmine explosions involving both civilians and security personnel in the departments of Cauca and Caquetá (BBC 17/06/2015; Government 03/06/2015).  Landmines have been planted in at least half (550) of Colombia’s municipalities (La Prensa 18/01/2015). The Colombian government and FARC-EP have agreed to remove landmines and explosives, aiming to complete demining by 2025 (Reuters 09/03/2015).

Children

Forced displacement, insecurity, fear of recruitment, the threat of sexual violence and the presence of antipersonnel landmines causing children to drop out of school (UNICEF 19/03/2016).

There are approximately 2,000 underage fighters in FARC (Reuters 15/04/2015). Across all armed groups an estimated 1,000 children have been recruited over the past three years. Actual numbers across all armed groups may be much higher (UNICEF 19/03/2016).

Vulnerable groups

Afro-Colombians and indigenous peoples are highly vulnerable groups, as they are minorities and generally live in areas more likely to be cut off by conflict. The Wounaan community, comprising 11,000 people in rural Chocó and Valle del Cauca, are vulnerable to cultural and physical extinction as a result of the armed conflict. They are regularly subjected to human rights abuses and displacement (OCHA 17/03/2016; NRC 09/2014; Al Jazeera 03/02/2016).

The municipality of Buenaventura in Valle del Cauca has the highest rate of forced displacement in Colombia: post-demoblised armed groups continue to conduct abductions in the area and have on numerous occasions been responsible for killing residents in the area who are suspected to be affiliated with left-wing movements. There are also reports of sexual violence in the region (Human Rights Watch 040/03/2016).

There was a significant increase in the number of attacks on human rights activists in 2015: at least 63 were killed (Somos Defensores 02/03/2016). In the first two weeks of March, 29 left-wing community leaders were assassinated across the country by post-demobilised armed actors (Colombia Reports 14/02/2016; The Guardian 09/03/2016). The vast majority of attacks are carried out by post-demobilised armed groups (OCHA 30/11/2015; NPR 24/02/2016). In Antioquia alone, there were 178 documented attacks against human rights workers in 2015 (CCEEU 09/12/2015).

Updated:06/04/2016

Democratic People's Republic of Korea Country Analysis

Politics and security

Tensions between DPRK and South Korea increased after a landmine at the border injured two South Korean soldiers in early August 2015 (Guardian 04/08/2015). The tension resulted in a brief exchange of fire at the border – no casualties were reported – and DPRK and South Korea later agreed on a deal to reduce tensions (BBC 25/08/2015). Tensions escalated again in early January 2016 after DPRK claimed to have tested a hydrogen bomb, and further increased in early February when DPRK launched a long-range rocket (Reuters 08/02/2016; BBC 06/01/2016). On 2 March the UN increased sanctions against DPRK. In response DPRK renewed the threat to use nuclear weapon. Following the announcement of increased sanctions, DPRK has fired a series of short-range missiles into the sea towards South Korea (The Guardian 18/03/2016; The Wall Street Journal 04/03/2016; The New York Times 03/03/2016).

Humanitarian access

Humanitarian access remains extremely limited. Humanitarian agencies do not have the ability to freely access communities, conduct assessments, or run monitoring and evaluating processes. International sanctions further complicate assistance, in particular due to the suspension of banking channels for fund transfers (UN 01/04/2015). 

Food security and livelihoods

1.8 million children, older people, and pregnant and lactating women are in particular need of food assistance (UN 01/04/2015). An estimated 18 million people (70% of the population), are dependent on government rations and highly vulnerable to shortages in food production (OCHA 31/08/2015). The government rations in July and August 2015 were below the three-year average, and substantially below the rations in the same period in 2013 and 2014, most likely due to the reduction in the output of early season crops (FAO 09/09/2015).

Most households are estimated to have borderline and poor food consumption rates (FAO 01/06/2015). Decreased production of vegetables and soybeans, a major source of protein, contributes to a lack of food diversity for the general population (UN 01/04/2015). Food shortages peak during the lean season, between July and September, and households resort to coping mechanisms such as receiving support from families on cooperative farms; reducing meal sizes; gathering wild foods; and diluting meals with water (OCHA 01/07/2015).

The food system in DPRK remains highly vulnerable to shocks and serious shortages exist, particularly in the production of protein-rich crops. Lack of agricultural inputs, such as seeds, fertiliser and plastic sheets, is a fundamental challenge for food production (UN 01/04/2015). 

Food availability

Potato, wheat, and barley crops are estimated to have been reduced by 40–50% in areas affected by the April-June drought, compared with normal levels. Rice planting was significantly affected by reduced rainfall in 2014, with 2015 output forecast at 12% lower than in 2014 (FAO 09/09/2015). Maize output is estimated to have fallen 15% from 2014 to 2015. Soybean production has also been affected (FAO 13/07/2015).

Health

An estimated six million people need access to essential health services, including vaccines. Other medical products and lifesaving equipment, such as ambulances, remain limited. Health facilities often lack functioning water systems, increasing the risks of hospital infections and the spread of disease (UN 01/04/2015).

In areas affected by the April-June drought, a 72% increase in diarrhoea cases among children under five has been recorded (UNICEF 26/01/2016).

Nutrition

According to FAO, 10.5 million people were undernourished in 2014 (FAO 27/05/2015).

Chronic and acute malnutrition remains one of the major contributors to maternal and child mortality (UNICEF 26/01/2015). Micronutrient deficiencies are of particular concern (OCHA 01/07/2015).

WASH

An estimated seven million people need access to clean water and sanitation. There is a notable lack of adequate sanitation in rural areas and in social care institutions and education facilities (UN 01/04/2015).

Education

Lack of teaching/learning materials in addition to the lack of adequate sanitation facilities in school buildings remain a challenge (UNICEF 26/01/2015). 

Protection

DPRK has been found to be responsible for widespread human rights violations against its citizens, including abductions, arbitrary detention, torture, extrajudicial executions, and forced labour  (UN General Assembly 19/01/2016; 08/09/2015; Human Rights Watch 08/06/2015; UN 17/03/2014).

Reviewed: 07/04/2016

Djibouti

Politics and security

After a civil war between the two main ethnic groups, the Issa and Afar, in the early 1990s, a power-sharing deal was signed in 1994. Ismail Omar Guelleh has been President since 1999, and the political situation has been stable. Presidential elections will be held on 8 April.

On 3 December 2015, Guelleh announced his candidacy for a fourth term. Opponents held a peaceful protest on 14 December in the capital. Some 50 opposition members were arrested between 13 and 16 December because of their participation in the protest. Dozens of journalists, activists and opposition members were arrested in January, increasing tensions ahead of the elections (BBC 06/05/2015; CIA Factbook 2015; ICG 01/01/2016; 01/02/2016). The electoral commission has been reactivated and must be reformed before April, as agreed in 2014 between the government and the opposition (RFI 13/01/2016).

Djibouti’s strategic geo-political position with access to the Red Sea means it has become a base for countering terrorism and piracy in the region. France as well as the US have military bases in the country. Their presence is an important source of income for Djibouti’s economy but also presents a threat of reprisal attacks (UNHCR 2015; BBC 06/05/2015; CIA Factbook 2015).

On 14 March 2016, coast guards from Djibouti and Somaliland clashed after Djiboutian patrol boats intercepted four fishing vessels, leaving one person dead and two others injured (local news 15/03/2016).

Displacement

Conflict in Yemen has led to displacement to Djibouti since March 2015, in particular to Obock. As of 23 March, 34,464 people have arrived, of which 6% are returnees, 57% Yemeni nationals, and 37% third-country nationals (IOM 23/03/2016). They are staying mainly in Markazi camp, Obock town and Djibouti City. Many are just passing through and do not stay in Djibouti (UN 01/12/2015; ECHO 11/02/2016; UNHCR 26/01/2016). The average registration rate since July is around 20 people per week. However, many people are not registered and staying in urban areas of Obock and Djibouti City (UNHCR 09/10/2015).

Prior to the influx from Yemen, Djibouti was hosting around 15,000 refugees from Somalia, Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNICEF 26/01/2016).

Refugees and asylum seekers

Refugees are allowed to stay in urban centres, but the cost of living is high. They live in deplorable conditions without adequate housing, documents or access to basic services.  Both urban and camp refugees are in need of healthcare, nutrition, shelter, livelihoods, NFIs and protection. Refugee children are entirely dependent on humanitarian aid to access basic services such as education, health, and water. Thousands are living in the streets (UNICEF 26/01/2016).

Yemen: 6,472 people have been registered as refugees since March 2015 (UNHCR 16/02/2016). 2,753 are in Markazi camp in Obock. The rest live in Obock town or Djibouti City (UN 01/12/2015). Refugees have left Markazi camp because of the poor conditions (UNHCR 20/10/2015). The camp is remote, humanitarian access is limited, the food and health situation is critical, and protection risk factors are present, for instance long distances between dwellings and latrines  (UNHCR 16/10/2015). There are thousands of Yemenis who refuse to register as refugees, fearing either the loss of freedom of movement or being forcibly returned (UNHCR 11/12/2015).  

Other refugees: As of January 2016, some 15,000 refugees from Somalia (12,000), Ethiopia, and Eritrea were living in Djibouti (UNICEF 26/01/2016; ECHO 20/01/2016). 18,000 of them reside in Ali Addeh and Holl Holl refugee camps (FEWSNET 01/01/2016). Their main needs are health assistance, protection and shelter (IOM 05/10/2015).

Humanitarian access

Humanitarian access within Djibouti is not limited in general. There are reported logistical challenges for the delivery of humanitarian assistance to Markazi camp, as the government restricts the humanitarian aid provided to registered refugees living in the camp (UNHCR 16/10/2015).

Food security and livelihoods

Approximately 40,000 people are estimated to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and 30,000 in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) situations of food insecurity (FEWSNET 31/03/2016). Crisis levels are likely to continue among poor households, at least through September (FEWSNET 29/02/2016). Limited livelihood opportunities, inadequate humanitarian assistance, and few available coping mechanisms have reduced food access (FEWSNET 28/08/2015).

 Livelihoods 

The population’s coping mechanisms have gradually eroded due to recurrent drought in the past decade, and people are increasingly unable to generate sufficient income (OCHA 07/12/2015). The influx of people from Yemen has increased the size of the labour force, putting pressure on the limited income-earning opportunities of poor households, mainly in Obock and Djibouti City (FEWSNET 01/01/2016). Drought has depleted pasture, crops and water resources, resulting in loss of income for herders and rural households (FAO 16/02/2016).

 Food  access 

Food access continues to be limited by low livestock prices and limited milk availability due to poor livestock body conditions, limited labour opportunities and the increasing cost of essential goods. The price of kerosene increased by 200% in Obock due to disrupted trade with Yemen (FEWSNET 06/02/2016).

WASH

Djibouti is one of the world’s most arid countries, with no permanent source of surface water (FAO 16/02/2016). In Obock region, only 40% of the population has access to safe water and only 25% has access to adequate sanitation facilities (UNICEF 17/04/2015). In Obock, emptying pit latrines is a challenge, as there is no functioning waste management system (UNHCR 04/07/2015).

Education

The secondary school in Markazi camp lacks teachers (UNHCR 26/01/2016).

Updated: 06/04/2016

Ethiopia Country Analysis

For more information, visit the ACAPS country analysis page.

Politics and security

Ethiopia is considered comparatively stable in Africa, but deep clan tensions and intra-communal violence persist. Two decades of deadly conflict in the southeastern region of Ogaden have had a severe impact on the Ethiopian ethnic Somali population, especially after years of a relatively successful government counter-insurgency campaign. The government has yet to address the root causes of the violence. However, weak political opposition, and the government’s determination to accelerate economic growth all make continued stability likely.

Ethiopia has historically been a key player in peacekeeping and counter-terrorism operations in East Africa. Peace talks on the South Sudan conflict, under the mediation of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, are taking place in Addis Ababa. Ethiopian troops are currently part of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which has launched an offensive against Al Shabaab, together with the Somali National Army.

Oromia land protests

The planned expansion of Addis Ababa’s municipal boundaries into Oromo land sparked protests beginning 20 November and a crackdown by security forces. On 15 January, the government decided to halt implementation of the expansion plan (HRW 21/02/2016; All Africa 16/02/2016). Nonetheless, violence against Oromo protesters and civilians by security forces accounts for 50% of fatalities at the hands of security forces in 2016. The frequency of protests and civilian casualties has steadily increased between December 2015 and February 2015. in December 2015, 25 acts of violence against Oromo civilians and 20 Oromo riots or protests were reported, whereas in February 59 acts of violence and 136 riots or protests reported. In March, the number of Oromo protests decreased, but was still higher than in December 2015 (58 protests or riots reported in March). Demonstrators have generally not reacted with violence. Over 90% of recorded demonstrations have involved peaceful protesters (ACLED 02/04/2016 29/03/2016).

Dozens of Oromo university students protested the police crackdowns in Addis in early March (Diplomat 09/03/2016). In February, protests have spread to Aje, Shalla, Siraro, and the city of Shashemene (HRW 21/02/2016, All Africa 16/02/2016). Destruction of foreign-owned farms and looting of government buildings have been reported. Human Rights Watch reports that security forces stormed Jimma University in western Oromia on 10–11 January,  carrying out beatings and mass arrests (HRW 21/02/2016).

Gambella

As of 14 February, the security situation in Gambella region has reportedly improved (UNHCR 14/02/2016). Heavy clashes had broken out between Nuer and Anyuak communities on 28 and 29 January. Dozens were killed and more were injured. The deterioration of the security situation has caused movement restrictions and the interruption or suspension of humanitarian activities (ECHO 03/02/2016).

Natural disasters

Drought

El Niño is causing severe drought in Ethiopia, which is affecting a much larger geographic area and population in the northern and central highlands than the 2011 drought (OCHA 19/10/2015). Very low rainfall and high temperatures have reduced food harvests by 50–90% in 2015 (OCHA 08/02/2016). Over one million livestock have died (FEWSNET 31/12/2015).Water levels have fallen at several hydroelectric dams, reducing power-generating capacity and generating blackouts (Sudan Tribune 02/12/2015; Hydroworld 02/12/2015).

Peak assistance needs are expected between July and September 2016 (WFP 04/03/2016). More specifically, Southern Afar and Sitti zone of Somali region are expected to remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) through September 2016 (FEWSNET 02/04/2016). The worst-affected areas are suffering water and pasture shortages. This includes northern pastoral areas of Afar; Sitti zone in Somali region; eastern and central Oromia; the belg-producing highlands; northern Amhara, and central Tigray. Eastern Amhara, eastern Tigray, the Amhara-Abay lowlands, and the lowlands of SNNPR are also affected (FEWSNET 04/12/2015; OCHA 13/10/2015; Multiagency Rapid Assessment 09/2015).

In January, light rains were recorded in southwestern areas, the central part of the country, pockets of south and eastern Tigray, North and South Wollo, and parts of Oromia. This rainfall is unseasonal in some areas and may negatively affect crops ready for harvest, leading to losses. Rain showers were also reported from Zone 3 in Afar Region. However, shortage of drinking water and pasture for livestock in most parts of the region are still major problems.

Preliminary forecasting indicates potential above-average rains for the belg-producing areas in the south and southeast from February to May (FEWSNET 20/01/2016). In Sitti zone of Somali region, although no seasonal rains are expected at this time of year, WASH interventions have improved the water situation. Conditions for livestock and access to water are expected to improve with seasonal March rains in the Afar and Northern Somali regions (WFP 04/03/2016, UNICEF 18/02/2016).

Displacement

As of June, more than one million people are displaced in Ethiopia, including refugees, IDPs, and returnees. The majority of refugees are from Somalia, South Sudan, and Eritrea, and are mainly staying in camps in Gambella, Dolo Ado in Somali region, and Shire in Tigray. Many have been displaced for more than a year. Since April 2015, around 12,000 people have arrived in Ethiopia from Yemen: most are returnees. Some 34,000 Ethiopian refugees and asylum seekers are in Kenya and Djibouti (UNHCR 31/12/2015).

IDPs

As of the end of 2015, Over 636,000 people were internally displaced in Ethiopia, with almost 183,000 newly displaced between October and December. 41.6% were displaced in Somali region, 35.9% in Afar, 16.3% in Oromia, and the rest in Amhara, Gambella, and SNNP. The main causes for new displacement were conflict (around 43,700), flooding (over 73,400), and volcanic eruption (almost 4,000) (IOM 22/01/2016). Over 0.8 million people have been displaced by drought-related causes (ACT Alliance 01/02/2016). In Somali region alone, some 67,500 people have been displaced by drought (International Business Time 28/01/2016). 13,000 households (some 65,000 individuals) in Sitti have lost all their livestock and consequently have settled in informal camps (USAID 18/12/2015). As of 18 March, about 14,100 pastoral households (70,500 individuals) that have been displaced since July from different woredas in Sitti zone are still at IDP centre due to the drought (FEWSNET 18/03/2016).

Refugees and asylum seekers

As of 29 February, Ethiopia was hosting some 732,000 refugees, mainly from South Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea, and Sudan (UNHCR 29/02/2016). The majority are staying in camps in Gambella, Dolo Ado, and Shire. 50% of them are women and girls. At least 57% are children below 18 years of age. Around 39,300 are unaccompanied children (UNHCR 16/01/2016). The number of refugees in Ethiopia has remain relatively stable since the last few months (UNHCR 29/02/2016).

South Sudan: As of 1 April, 283,000 South Sudanese refugees are in Ethiopia, more than 270,500 are staying in camps in Gambella region (UNHCR 01/04/2016). 67% are children, and as of 4 March there are some 21,500 unaccompanied or separated children (UNHCR 11/03/2016 04/03/2016 19/02/2016).  Women make up 71% of the adult population (UNHCR 19/02/2016, 05/02/2016).

Most South Sudanese refugees are in camps. As of 1 February, there are 63,223 in Pugnido, 53,394 in Tierkidi, 48,485 in Jewi, 48,443 in Kule, 15,971 in Pugnido II, and 7,679 in Okugo. Around 30,000 are in transit locations in border areas. More than 33,000 refugees still live with host communities (UNHCR 11/03/2016 19/02/2016, 05/02/2016).

Somalia: As of 29 February, there are 251,049 Somalian refugees registered in Ethiopia. Most are in Dolo Ado camps, Somali region (UNHCR 29/02/2016 31/01/2016).

Eritrea: As of 29 February, 153,531 Eritrean refugees were registered in Ethiopia (UNHCR 29/02/2016), mainly settled in four camps in the northern Tigray and Afar regions (UNICEF 21/04/2015). 33,000 refugees arrived in 2014 (OCHA 03/08/2015).

Sudan: As of 29 February, there are 38 535 Sudanese refugees registered in Ethiopia (UNHCR 29/02/2016).

Yemen: As of 31 December, there are over 5,000 Yemeni refugees in Ethiopia (UNHCR 31/12/2015).

Refugee returnees

As of 1 December, 7,540 Ethiopians have returned from Yemen (UNHCR 15/12/2015). 55% of returnees and refugees from Yemen are female, and 66% are children (UNHCR 13/10/2015).

Ethiopian refugees in neighbouring countries

As of 7 July, there were 31,023 Ethiopian refugees and asylum seekers in Kenya (UNHCR 07/07/2015). 4,200 Ethiopian refugees are in South Sudan as of 19 January (ECHO 19/01/2016). Around 80,000 Ethiopian migrants arrived in Yemen in 2015 (IOM 29/01/2016).

Food security and livelihoods

The food security situation continues to deteriorate, with meher assessment results indicating 10.2 million in need of assistance, an increase of nearly two million since mid-September, including some  6 million children under 18 (UNICEF 18/02/2016 government and HCT 11/12/2015). According to the Ethiopian government, up to 18 million people are dependent on food subsidies to avoid acute undernourishment in the coming weeks and months: 10.2 million due to drought and an additional 7.9 million people who are chronically food insecure (Reuters 07/03/2016; Humedica 27/02/2016).  Many poor households in southern Afar and in Sitti zone of Somali region, as well as in East and West Hararghe zones in Oromia, are in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food security. In Afar region and northern Somali region, the March–May sugum/dirra rains are below average, limiting pasture regeneration, improvements in livestock body conditions, and associated access to food and income. Most households are relying on humanitarian assistance as the main source of food (FEWSNET 02/04/2016).

Large areas of Tigray, Amhara, and SNNP regions, as well as most of remaining parts of Afar, Oromia, and Somali regions are reported to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) (FEWSNET 31/12/2015).

With continued drought, relief food needs are highly likely to double in 2016, to around 15 million (FEWSNET 04/12/2015; ECHO 09/10/2015). The increase is expected to occur mainly in Amhara, Oromia, and Tigray regions (Government and HCT 07/12/2015). Below-average own production from the past seasons, the decline in labour incomes and an anticipated staple food price increase from February to May are expected to limit food access of most poor households, particularly in the lowlands of Sidama, Gamo Gofa, Wolayita, Hadiya, Kambata Tambaro, Gurage, Silite zones and Halaba special woreda, in Southern Nations Nationalities and People’s region. These areas are likely to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through May 2016. However, their food security outcomes are expected to improve starting in June 2016 due to the anticipated average belg production in June/July improving food availability and income from harvest labour, and stabilising food prices. As a result, these areas are likely to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity between June and September (Fewsnet 18/03/2016).

Pipeline breaks are likely to happen in the second half of the year for food provisions unless additional funds are secured (OCHA 28/03/2016 ECHO 04/03/2016).

Food availability

Drought conditions have had a severe impact on agriculture and on livestock, causing many people to be dependent on food aid (FAO 15/01/2016). 3.3 million drought-affected small-holder farmers require emergency seed support, 1.1 million more than in 2015 (OCHA 15/03/2016).

In Sitti zone, the wheat distributed by humanitarian organisations as part of the food aid requires milling: some women are travelling between six hours and four days by donkey to access milling services (Oxfam 24/02/2016).

Although the situation is expected to improve during the belg rainy season with more access to water and improved milk production, no harvest is expected until July 2016. Of the 10.2 million people currently, affected only an estimated 1 million will benefit from the belg rains (UNICEF 31/03/2016). 

Food access

Prices of staple foods such as lentils have increased by up to 73% in Addis Ababa, and livestock prices are decreasing, with declines of 80% reported in Somali region, compared to the same time last year (OCHA 30/09/2015). Seasonal price drops are late: prices remain near their lean season highs in many areas, and price increases are likely to begin in January 2016,  earlier than usual due to reduced supply and high demand (FEWSNET 31/10/2015). In Sitti zone, the price of livestock has steadily increased as the condition of the animals is very poor, while the price of meat has almost doubled (Oxfam 24/02/2016).

Livelihoods

Poor kiremt (seasons) rains from June–September worsened availability of pasture and water in Afar and northern Somali region, leading to deteriorated livestock body conditions, extremely low milk production and very low livestock prices (FAO 09/03/2016, 13/10/2015; FEWSNET 31/10/2015). In some areas, over 75% of meher-cropping production has been lost, and in pastoral areas over 1 million livestock have died, with 1.7 million more reported at risk (FEWSNET 31/12/2015).

In Sitti zone, Somali region, 75% of livestock has been lost (ECHO 09/10/2015).

Low planted area and poor crop performance have resulted in decreased demand for agricultural labour (FEWSNET 31/10/2015). The situation is not expected to improve in the country before April/May with the start of the diraac/sugum short rains (FAO 09/03/2016). From December 2015 to March 2016, the number of households requiring seeds for the next Belg planting season almost doubled, from 500,000 to 900,000 households (ECHO 04/03/2016).

Health

3.6 million people are thought to be in need of emergency healthcare and disease control services (government and HCT 07/12/2015). In the six months up to August 2016, over 350,000 babies are expected to be born in drought-affected communities (Save the Children 22/01/2016).

A measles outbreak has been reported in 13 districts, nine of which are in Oromia region. As of 22 January, 31,000 cases has been registered (OCHA 04/02/2016).

A scabies outbreak due to poor WASH is reportedly ongoing in Amhara, Tigray, and Oromia regions, particularly affecting young children. So far, 300,000 people have been affected and 3.6 million are reported to be at risk (OCHA 04/02/2016; government 04/01/2016; UNICEF 31/10/2015; OCHA 15/11/2016). In Shire, Tigray, more than 500 cases of scabies were reported in two refugee camps, many of them among new arrivals and unaccompanied children (UNHCR 31/01/2016). As of 31 March, scabies has reached areas in SNNP region, although the number of cases are decreasing in Amhara, Oromia and Tigray regions (UNICEF 31/03/2016).

Following the declaration of an outbreak of acute watery diarrhoea (AWD) in December 2015, cases in Moyale, Oromia, Somiali and  SNNP regions are reportedly decreasing, thanks to disinfection of wells and rainwater harvesting sites (OCHA 04/01/2016). However, poor hygiene practices, lack of safe drinking water, and the high mobility of daily labourers has challenged efforts to control the spread of the disease (UNICEF 31/03/2016).

As of 25 February, some hospitals have been closed for three months in West Gimchi, owing to Oromo clashes with federal security forces (AFP 25/02/2016).

Nutrition

As of 14 March, 450,000 children are suffering from severe acute malnutrition (OCHA 14/03/2016 UNICEF 18/02/2016, 20/12/2015). In 2015 more than 350,000 cases were reported – a 25% increase from 2014 (UNICEF 04/01/2016; 31/10/2015). The number of admissions has reached levels higher than those reported in any month of the 2011 drought (OCHA 13/10/2015; Nutrition Cluster 17/06/2015). 2.2 million children under five, pregnant women, and nursing mothers are suffering from moderate acute malnutrition, twice as many as in 2015 (OCHA 14/03/2016 WFP 04/03/2016).

429 priority woredas for nutritional intervention have been identified, including 186 ‘priority one’ woredas; a 30% increase since August. Priority areas are mostly in Afar, eastern Oromia, eastern Amhara and Tigray, and Sitti zone of Somali region, where the Ministry of Health has found 40–69% GAM and 9–20% SAM among IDPs (OCHA 14/09/2015; government and HCT 11/12/2015). In Oromia, SAM admissions increased 68% from July to August. The majority of cases were reported in East and West Hararghe and Arsi zones (government 19/10/2015). As of 31 March, surveys indicate critical nutrition situations in Kelafo and Dembal woredas of Somali region; Tanqua Abergele woreda of Tigray region; Adaar and Abaala woredas of Afar region; and Dessie Zuria woreda in Amhara region (UNICEF 31/03/2016).

Refugees: In Afar region, the nutrition situation has deteriorated in two refugee camps. In Barahle, GAM is at 22.9%, compared to 16% in 2014. In Aysaita camp, GAM increased from 17.2% in 2014 to 19.8% in 2015 (UNHCR 31/08/2015). Over 50% of refugee camps are located in ‘priority one’ woredas affected by the drought.

WASH

5.8 million people across the country lack access to safe drinking water and latrines (UNHCR 15/02/2016, government and HCT 07/12/2015).

Water

At least 900,000 people in severely drought-affected areas of Afar, Amhara, Oromiya, SNNP, Somali, and Tigray require emergency water trucking to meet their basic water needs. Water trucking operations are challenged by the distance and inaccessibility of some of these areas, especially in Amhara (USAID 30/03/2016). 78% of populations in districts assessed in Sitti by a UNICEF study had less than 5L per person per day and 96% less than 15 L/p/d (ECHO 04/03/2016). Animals and people are often using the same water points, leading to a risk of waterborne diseases (Oxfam 24/02/2016).

29 woredas have been identified as in need of emergency WASH services (OCHA 02/11/2015; 30/11/2015). In Wag Himra zone of Amhara region, one of the worst‑affected areas, the groundwater table has dropped to 400m, requiring high technology for access (OCHA 21/12/2015). In some areas, women and girls are travelling up to 30km (six hours) per day to reach the nearest water source. Livestock deaths mean they have to carry the load themselves (OCHA 02/11/2015). In Fafan zone in Somali region, it was reported that 30% of boreholes are not functional, and in one district, 13,500 people are relying on one borehole for water (Oxfam 24/02/2016).

River levels along the entire Shabelle River, in the highlands of Ethiopia, have been reported at record lows. The situation is expected to improve in the second week of April as the rainy season progresses (31/03/2016).

Refugees: The water supply in most camps in Gambella is above 15 L/p/d, except for Kule (11), Jewi (14), and Tierkidi (11). The number of people per tap is above the recommended 250 in Tierkidi (254) and Jewi (252) (UNHCR 15/01/2016).

Education

1.3 million children are reported to be in urgent need of education (ACT Alliance 01/02/2016). Over 2.5 million children are expected to drop out of school in 2016 because of drought-related causes (Save the Children 22/01/2016). Thousands of schools have closed, including more than 200 due to pastoralists moving with their children in search of water and pasture. Absenteeism is growing rapidly (UNICEF 16/02/2016; ECHO 09/12/2015). Children are missing out on up to 3 days of school a week as they support their families by fetching water from long distances, or taking care of younger siblings so mothers  can fetch water (UNHCR 15/02/2016). 75% of schools do not have access to clean water (OCHA 21/03/2016).

In Gambella camps, only 50% of the school-aged population is attending school. Attendance rates are worse among girls than boys, at 43% and 56%, respectively. The worst attendance rates are reported in Okugo (43%) and Pugnido II (36%). Primary education enrolment averages 62% and secondary education enrolment only 7%. Secondary education enrolment is reported in Tierkidi (3%), Kule (11%), Okugo (10%), and Pugnido (14%), but not in Jewi and Pugnido II (UNHCR 01/02/2016).

As of 21 February, some schools and universities remain closed in Oromia because the authorities have arrested teachers and closed facilities to prevent further protests, or students are not attending in protest, or from fear of arrest (HRW 21/02/2016).

Protection

2.5 million people are estimated to be in need of some form of protection assistance (OCHA 05/01/2016).

Oromo people

In Oromia, farmers and residents living close to Addis Ababa have been facing eviction without appropriate compensation, as there were plans to expand the municipal boundary of the capital. Over 150,000 farmers have had their land taken in the last 10 years. The government cancelled its expansion plans on 15 January but protests continue (Guardian, 14/01/2016, HRW 21/02/2016). Almost daily accounts of killings and arbitrary arrests have been reported to Human Rights Watch. There have been reports of excessive force against protestors by military forces and police, detention without charge, torture, ill-treatment, and sexual assaults by security officers in prisons. Children under 18 are reported to have been arrested. Several thousand people have reportedly been arrested; the whereabouts of many are unknown (HRW 21/02/2016; All Africa 16/02/2016).

Children

As of 31 January, there are 38,858 unaccompanied and separated minors in Ethiopia (UNHCR 31/01/2016, UNHCR 16/01/2016). 21,710 unaccompanied and separated South Sudanese children are in Gambella:  as of 1 February,  4,307 unaccompanied and separated minors are in Tierkidi refugee camp, 3,822 in Kule, 5,072 in Jewi, 530 in Okugo, 5,186 in Pugnido and 2,640 in Pugnido II (UNHCR 04/12/2015; UNHCR 01/02/2016).

The drought is making children more vulnerable. In Fafan zone in Somali region, it was reported that because of the drought women have left their children to drive their remaining herds further away, with implications for children’s protection (Oxfam 24/02/2016). Family separation and child marriage are reportedly on the rise, due to food shortages. Child labour and school dropouts have been also expected to rise (Reuters 11/12/2015). Families are adopting negative coping strategies such as child labour and child migration as a consequence of the loss of livelihood opportunities. Reports indicate widespread psychological distress and increased risks of sexual violence especially as girls are walking longer distances to fetch water (UNICEF 31/03/2016)

As of 19 February, 584,000 children, most of them in woredas in Oromia province, are at risk of or have survived gender-based violence (UNICEF 15/02/2016).

Updated: 29/03/2016

Gambia

Politics and security

President Yahya Jammeh took power in a coup in 1994. Opposition forces attempted a coup during his absence in December 2014, but security forces prevented it. Government repression has been intensifying in the run-up to December 2016 presidential elections (BBC 16/12/2015; Freedom House 2015).

Displacement

Refugees in the Gambia

11,420 refugees, mostly Senegalese from the Casamance region, live in the Gambia (OCHA 31/08/2014; 09/03/2016). Their main need is WASH (OCHA 30/11/2015).

Gambian migrants in Europe

The number of young Gambians arriving to Europe has increased in 2015 compared to 2014. More than 11,000 migrants sought asylum in Europe in 2015 (WFP 22/01/2016).

Food security and livelihoods

427,000 people are food insecure due to erratic rains, including over 60,000 in the Crisis phase of food security outcomes. North Bank, Upper River and West Coast regions are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and higher of food security outcomes. The estimated minimal national energy intake is at 1,770 calories per person per day, well below the recommended minimum requirement of 2,200 calories (OCHA 30/11/2015; 09/03/2016; FAO 10/03/2016).

Nutrition

11,000 children are severely malnourished (SAM) as of March 2016. At least 116,900 children under five and breastfeeding women are at risk of acute malnutrition (OCHA 30/11/2015; 09/03/2016). North Bank and Central River regions report chronic child malnutrition rates of over 30% (FAO 10/03/2016).

Health

143,000 people are in need of healthcare. Key priorities are to strengthen health facilities’ capacity and provide life-saving medicines and medical supplies. Physical access to health services is difficult, mainly during the rainy season.

Malaria is endemic, and 90% of infections occur during the June–October rainy season. Limited access to safe drinking water results in frequent epidemics of diarrhoea and malaria, mainly among children (OCHA 30/11/2015).

WASH

78,000 people require immediate WASH assistance in 50 communities in Central River, North Bank, West Central and Upper River regions. Less than 40% of the population has access to improved sanitation. 13% of schools lack access to safe drinking water, many of them in North Bank region (OCHA 30/11/2015).

Protection

Journalists, human rights activists, religious leaders, political opponents, and LGBT people are among the groups subject to arbitrary arrest and detention, torture, enforced disappearance, unlawful killing and other ill-treatment (Human Rights Watch 17/09/2015).

Reviewed: 06/04/2016

Haiti

Politics and security

Political instability

The parliamentary elections, which had been delayed by four years, took place in August 2015. However, the electoral process was highly criticised and protests were widespread: 26 of 1,508 polling stations were closed due to violence, and voter turnout was only 18% (AFP 21/08/2015; OAS, 10/08/2015; Reuters, 10/08/2015). 16 candidates were disqualified over suspected involvement in election violence, and a revote took place in a number of constituencies in October, at the same time as the presidential election (local media, 26/10/2015; AFP, 27/10/2015). Violence was reported beforehand, most notably in the Cité Soleil district of Port-au-Prince, where 10–15 people were killed (AP 19/10/2015). Protests and violence continued afterwards, mainly in the capital, over alleged election fraud (local news 07/11/2015, 09/11/2015, 17/11/2015; AFP 11/11/2015, 18/11/2015; international media 21/11/2015).

The second round of the presidential election was postponed and in January 2016 a commission of inquiry reported numerous irregularities (Center for Economic and Policy Research 17/12/2015; AlterPresse 05/01/2016; 20/01/2016; 19/01/2016). On 5 February, a man was killed during clashes in Port-au-Prince between protesters and former soldiers and youths seeking to restore the army, which was disbanded in 1995 (AFP 07/02/2016).

Transitional government

On 6 February, a transitional government was agreed, with new presidential elections scheduled for 24 April (AFP 07/02/2016; 08/02/2016; Al Jazeera 05/02/2016).

Legislators elected Jocelene Privet, a former senator, as interim President for 120 days (AFP 15/02/2016). On 14 March, President Privet appointed a new Provisional Electoral Council to set up a schedule and budget for the delayed elections (local media 15/03/2016). On 22 March, President Privet named a new Prime Minister, after Parliament rejected the first appointee. Parliament has also failed to support the new Provisional Electoral Council (AFP 21/03/2016; AFP 23/03/2016). Demonstrations continue in Port-au-Prince, questioning the legitimacy of the interim president (13/02/2016). On 25 March, Parliament approved the new government, with Enex Jean-Charles as the new Prime Minister (AFP 25/03/2016). On 30 March, a new provisional electoral council was appointed (AFP 30/03/2016). On 5 April, the Provisional Electoral Council announced that the elections rescheduled for 24 April are again postponed (AFP 05/04/2016).

Natural disasters

Drought

80% of Haiti has been affected by El Niño conditions, and around one million Haitians have been affected by drought since the beginning of 2015. The most affected departments are Sud-Est, Nord-Ouest, Artibonite, Centre, and Nord-Est (OCHA 03/07/2015). Drought has resulted in a 50% decrease on the harvest of an average year, which covers 60% of agricultural production (FAO 26/01/2016). Extremely warm and dry conditions are expected to continue through May 2016 (FAO 14/12/2015).

Floods

Floods in February have affected more than 10,000 families in Nord and Ouest (OCHA 29/02/2016). On 28 February, heavy rain in the Sud-Est left one person dead, four missing, and destroyed 9,600 houses. In the city of Cap-Haïtien on the northern coast, 8,100 houses were flooded and 1,530 residences were submerged in Limonade commune (AFP 29/02/2016). In the beginning of February floods left at least six people dead and 200 houses destroyed in the town of Borgne, in the north of Haiti. Cap-Haïtien, Nord, and Port-de-Paix, Nord-Ouest were already affected by drought before being hit by flooding (IciHaiti 12/02/2016; OCHA 11/02/2016; Redhum 13/02/2016).

Displacement

IDPs

As of January 2016, 59,000 IDPs remain in 45 camps following the 2010 earthquake (OCHA 11/03/2016). 47% of IDP households are in Delmas, 17% in Croix des Bouquets, and 10% in Tabarre, in Port-au-Prince (IOM, 03/06/2015). Information management and service delivery in camps has been severely constrained due to lack of funding (OCHA 31/07/2015).

21 IDP sites were closed between April and June 2015 (IOM 30/06/2015). Basic services in camps have declined faster than the pace of return or relocation (OCHA/UN 31/12/2014). Absence of a protection-sensitive approach, lack of coherent urban planning, and instability, in part due to poor rule of law, are major obstacles to durable solutions for IDPs (UNHCR 08/05/2015).

Arrivals from Dominican Republic

A regularisation process regarding foreigners with no legal status has been conducted in Dominican Republic (DR) and left up to 200,000 Haitians and people of Haitian descent at risk of forced expulsion (AFP 21/06/2015; IOM 16/02/2016; VOA 05/01/2016).

As of 24 March, IOM has counted 80,397 Haitians and people of Haitian descent arriving from Dominican Republic since June 2015, including 1,185 unaccompanied minors. 49,011 people report they came to Haiti spontaneously, 13,397 claim they were deported. The number of people officially deported increased sharply from 2,974 at 25 September to 17,800 by March. 15.9% of the returned were born in DR. According to DR, almost 130,000 people have returned to Haiti (GARR 15/01/2016; OCHA 14/01/2016; IOM 24/03/2016). In 2016, 171,000 people of Haitian descent are expected to be returned to Haiti (UNICEF 26/01/2016).

Drought-related displacement

The extreme drought conditions and the food insecurity is pushing people to migrate. Since September, 10% of households had members that had left. 46% went to DR, 25% to other departments in Haiti, and 16% in other communes in the same department. The rest left for Latin American countries and the United States (OCHA 09/03/2016).

Humanitarian access

Security and physical constraints

Between the end of 2015 and 8 January a UN worker and two UN police officers were killed in two separate attacks in Port-au-Prince and Cap Haitien (Latin America Herald Tribune 08/01/2016; News24 31/12/2015).

Sociopolitical unrest and frequent strikes and road blocks continue to delay deliveries and distributions, particularly for nutrition activities (WFP 31/12/2015).

Food security and livelihoods

3.6 million Haitians are facing food insecurity, including 1.5 million people in severe food insecurity and 200,000 in extreme food insecure situations. 40 communes are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and four are in an Emergency situation (IPC Phase 4) (OCHA 11/02/2016; ECHO 04/03/2016). The most affected departments are Plateau Central, Nippes, Sud-Est, Sud, Grand’Anse, Ouest, Nord-Ouest, and Nord-Est (FEWSNET 31/01/2016). Although improved harvests in 2016 will likely result in improvements in food security to Stressed (IPC Phase 2), many communes in Sud-Est, Ouest, Nord-Ouest, upper Artibonite, Centre, Nord-Est Departments and on the Southern Peninsula will remain in Crisis through June 2016 (FEWSNET 22/03/2016).

Coordination Nationale de la Securite Alimentaire (CNSA) estimates that, by July 2016, food insecurity could affect about 5 million people, half of the Haitian population, if no assistance is provided (OCHA 11/02/2016).

Livelihoods

Extended dry spells have reduced jobs in the agricultural sector, which is estimated to provide 50% of all employment in Haiti (Reuters 26/08/2015; OCHA 27/07/2015).

57% of the households affected by the drought in the last six months have accumulated debt, 89% have lost their 2015 spring harvest and only 37% have planted for the 2016 winter season. 43% of those who have planted forecast production losses (WFP and government 17/02/2016).

Food availability

60–80% of the main local crops and vegetables have been lost in parts of Haiti, due to drought. Sud-Est (Grand Gosier, Anse-à-Pitres and Belle-Anse communes), Nord-Ouest, Artibonite (Gonaïves), Plateau central, Nord-Est, and Ouest (Grand-Gôave) are most affected (FEWSNET 17/08/2015; FAO 27/05/2015).

Food access

An estimated 600,000 Haitians rely on international food aid to survive (Reuters 26/08/2015). Staple food prices remain well above their seasonal highs. Agricultural labour incomes remained below average during the lean season, reducing purchasing power and food access for very poor households and creating atypically high food assistance needs following two years of poor agricultural production (FEWSNET 01/01/2016). In mid-2015, basic food prices were 30–40% higher than in 2014, due to the poor spring harvest (OCHA, 27/07/2015).

Health

Five million Haitians (50% of the population) lack access to basic health services (UN 27/10/2014). Cholera continues to affect Haiti, driven mainly by poor WASH conditions. The total number of cases in the first half of 2015 was triple that of the same period in 2014.

Healthcare availability and access

The 2010 earthquake destroyed an estimated 60% of Haiti’s health system and a number of hospitals have still not been fully rehabilitated. Others lack staff and essential medical equipment (MSF 08/01/2015).

Haitian migrants are returning from the Dominican Republic to poor living conditions, especially in Anse-à-Pitres. Cases of bacterial conjunctivitis and skin diseases have been reported (Alter Press 24/06/2015).

Cholera

So far in 2016, 7,782 suspected cholera cases have been reported, and 96 deaths (OCHA 11/03/2016). The first four weeks of 2016 the number of registered cases exceeded the number of the same period in both 2014 and 2015 (PAHO 09/03/2016). Current estimates indicate that 25,000 people will contract the disease in 2016 (OCHA 11/02/2016). In all 2015, more than 36,000 cases and 322 deaths were reported. Most cases are from Ouest, Centre, and Artibonite departments (OCHA 11/02/2016). Consuming untreated water and poor hygiene practices caused the transmission of 73% of national cholera cases (OCHA 31/10/2015; local media 15/11/2015).

754,738 cholera cases, including 9,068 deaths were reported between the start of the epidemic in October 2010 and 12 November 2015 (PAHO 23/12/2015).

Zika

As of 16 March, Haiti has reported 1,777 suspected and five confirmed cases of Zika virus. The four departments with the highest number of cases are Ouest, Nord, Artibonite and Centre (UNICEF 01/04/2016).

Nutrition

In Haiti, there are 131,000 malnourished children, approximately 56,500 children will need immediate therapeutic feeding as a life-saving measure and 748,000 more require supplemental feeding (OCHA 23/03/2016). A nutrition evaluation survey reveal that 20 communes most affected by drought have an alarming rate of GAM, at 8.4%. Six communes are on alert with greater than 10% GAM, out of which two communes are above the emergency threshold with 15% GAM between 16% and 27.7% and SAM between 8% and 10%.The total estimated number of children in those 20 communes is 211,000 and approximately 18,000 children are likely already affected by a form of malnutrition (OCHA 11/02/2016; UNICEF 26/01/2016).

WASH

1.35 million people are in need of WASH assistance (OCHA 04/03/2016).

Water

Significant water shortages are reported in the drought-affected departments of Ouest, Centre, Sud and Sud-Est (OCHA 11/02/2016; GARR 29/03/2016). 40% of schools do not have drinking water (local media 31/08/2015).

Sanitation

69% of the population lack access to improved sanitation (World Bank 30/09/2014). 60% of schools have no toilets (HRW 08/10/2014).

Shelter and NFIs

60,000 IDPs are vulnerable and in need of humanitarian assistance, living in camps, since 2010 (OCHA 14/01/2016). 45,000 live in tents and makeshift shelters with little or no access to water and sanitation (Reuters 12/01/2016). Camp conditions are deteriorating as humanitarian actors withdraw due to lack of funding. The majority of Haiti’s 45 IDP sites are in the metropolitan area of Port-au-Prince, including 12 in Delmas and four in Croix des Bouquets. There are 11 sites in Léogâne. 40% of IDP sites are tents and makeshift shelters, while 47% are transitional shelters (IOM 30/06/2015). The people sheltered in these camps are under the threat of forced eviction (UNHRC 12/02/2016).

Some deportees and returnees from DR are thought to be settling with relatives or in places of origin, but many are in spontaneous camps in the south of the country. The majority are in Ouanaminthe (Nord-Est) and Belladère (Centre) communes (GAR, 20/08/2015; IOM 11/08/2015; Alter Press 26/06/2015). There are 2,203 registered people in Anse-à-Pitres, living in six spontaneous sites and in urgent need of food, WASH, NFIs and shelter assistance (UNSC 08/03/2016; Church World Service 06/11/2015).

Education

An estimated 400,000 children do not attend school, 10% of school-aged children in Haiti (AFP 07/09/2015). Primary school enrollment is roughly 75%. 50% of the adult population is illiterate (USAID 05/01/2016).

Protection

Children

Minors in camps are particularly at risk of exploitation, with sexual violence commonplace (Save the Children 08/01/2015).

The practice of placing children in domestic service is widespread. More than 200,000 children are exploited in this manner, and many are subjected to physical, emotional, and sexual abuse (UNSC 08/03/2016).

Documentation

Around a third of people relocated outside camps after the 2010 earthquake do not have legitimate status/rights for the land they occupy. Land disputes and tensions are common and have been accompanied by coercion, violence, and forced eviction (OCHA/UNCT 11/03/2015).

67% of returnees from DR do not possess any type of documentation and are at risk of statelessness as the authorities of Haiti have refused to accept non-national deportees on its territory (AlterPresse 19/08/2015; IOM 22/01/2016).

Updated 06/04/2016

Kenya Country Analysis

Lebanon

Lesotho Country Analysis

Food security and livelihoods

The impact of El Niño-induced drought during the 2015/2016 planting season (September­–December) is adding to the dry spell registered during the 2014/2015 agricultural season (OCHA 19/01/2016). On 22 December, the government of Lesotho declared a state of emergency and appealed for assistance from the international community (WFP 29/12/2015). At least 725,000 people are expected to be affected by drought (OCHA 31/01/2016).

38% of the rural population – more than 530,000 people – are estimated to require food assistance until June 2016 (FAO 9/03/2016). This number is likely to go up to 725,000 after June (FAO 29/02/2016), and would  include some people in urban areas who unable to meet the high cost of food (WFP 29/12/2015).

As of March, 40,000 people are estimated to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security (ECHO 04/03/2016; MDAT 02/2016). Mafeteng and Mohale’s Hoek districts of Lesotho are experiencing the highest levels of acute food insecurity out of all ten districts in the country (WFP 15/02/2016). Most very poor and poor households are likely to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2), between June and September, with a significant portion of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) (FEWSNET 29/02/2016).

Food availability

The drought is affecting food production in all parts of the country (OCHA 09/03/2016).The land area planted in Lesotho is 19% lower than in the last season (OCHA, 17/11/2015).

Cattle herd size has declined by 7% in the mountain districts of Qacha’s Nek, Thaba Tseka, and Mokhotlong. The increases in livestock prices range from 15–86% for cattle and 15–60% for goats (OCHA, 17/11/2015).

Food access

In normal conditions, Lesotho imports approximately 70% of its cereal from South Africa. The retail price in Lesotho for white maize had increased by 12.6% since the beginning of 2015, with prices expected to rise further given that South African wholesale maize prices have nearly doubled since 2015 and  wholesale prices have increased by over 70% (OCHA 19/01/2016). Staple food prices will likely remain high through the lean season due to rises in food prices in South Africa, which is the main source of food for Lesotho. This is likely due to a rise in demand resulting from the regional cereal deficit (OCHA 19/01/2016).

Livelihoods

Most agricultural activities have been affected, especially in the lowlands and foothills. Poor and very poor households across the country are experiencing a 44% decline in their food and cash income compared with normal conditions. Current food and cash income is 31% below the survival threshold (OCHA 09/03/2016).

Most rural families depend on rain-fed subsistence farming, and wool and mohair production are the main sources of livelihood for many people (WFP 29/12/2015). However, livestock diseases and mortality are increasing and herd sizes declining due to scarcity of water, stock theft and disease outbreaks (OCHA 19/01/2016; MDAT 02/2016). Some households in Lesotho rely on remittances from South Africa, which are reduced by 15%, mainly due to retrenchments in the mining sector (IFRC 08/02/2016).

Health

Health facilities are hampered by limited water availability (OCHA 19/01/2016). Health facilities are reportedly asking patients to bring water (MDAT 02/2016).

A 300% increase in diarrhoeal diseases has been reported: from 88 cases  in November to 262 cases in December 2015 (OCHA 19/01/2016; OCHA 31/01/2016). The increased risk of cholera and other waterborne diseases complicate and worsen food and nutrition security (OCHA, 19/01/2016).

Pregnant women are avoiding giving birth in health clinics because most facilities lack water. A number of elderly people have died from dehydration as they are less able to carry water from water points (OCHA 19/01/2016).

Nutrition

GAM is at 3.4% and SAM at 0.06%. Micronutrient deficiencies are anticipated given that 52% of children already have anaemia, and 26% women of child-bearing age (OCHA citing LDHS, 19/01/2016). 36%- 49% of the communities indicated they do not have access to nutrition services (MDAT 02/2016).

Chronic malnutrition in young children is one of the major national concerns, with prevalence of 33% and underweight prevalence of 12.3%.

WASH

As of end January, it is estimated that Lesotho had received less than 50% of the average annual rainfall (MDAT 02/2016). The drought has dried up most rivers in Berea district, in the north west of Lesotho and in Mohale’s Hoek district in the south (WFP 29/12/2015; OCHA 19/01/2016). The most affected districts include five out of ten hard-to-reach districts, including Qacha’s Nek, Mokhotlong, Thaba Tseka, Quthing and Mafeteng (IFRC 08/02/2016).

Water shortages are affecting household consumption, the provision of basic services, agricultural activity and industry. Water is being rationed in many districts, such as in Mohale’s Hoek (OCHA 19/01/2016).

Water

The harsh climatic conditions have depleted most water sources, including rivers and dams, leading to an acute shortage of safe water and strict water rationing (WFP 05/02/2016). Around 300,000 people in 276 communities (15% of the population) are experiencing acute shortages of water (OCHA 29/01/2016). The limited water supply is affecting domestic and institutional usage. Water is rationed in all communities. In the most affected areas water is available three days per week (MDAT 02/2016).

Education

Schools are reported to be sending children away due to water scarcity (MDAT 02/2016).

Reviewed: 04/04/2016

Malawi

Politics and security

Malawi has had a stable, democratic government since 1993, when the one-party regime fell. Presidential and parliamentary elections have been peaceful. Current President Arthur Peter Mutharika is in his first five-year term (World Bank 01/10/2015). Opposition politicians claim they have received death threats for being critical of the President (Nyasa Times 22/02/2016).

Displacement

Malawi hosts over 25,000 refugees from DRC, Burundi, and Rwanda. Since mid-December 2015, over 11,500 Mozambican refugees have arrived in Malawi.

Refugees and asylum seekers

Over 11,500 Mozambicans entered Malawi since mid-December 2015, fleeing clashes between government forces and RENAMO. The refugee flow slowed in late March to 30–40 per day, from around 250 daily arrivals in early March­. Over 9,600 have been officially registered with UNHCR (UNHCR 15/03/2016; 16/03/2016; Inter Press 25/02/2016; Nyasa Times 30/06/2016). Nearly all the new arrivals have been staying in informal Kapise camp, Mwanza district, in overcrowded conditions, and need mainly health and WASH assistance (MSF 17/02/2016; UNHCR 18/02/2016). Hundreds are unaccompanied children (Inter Press 25/02/2016). The camp is only 300m from the Mozambican border, putting refugees at risk of attack by Mozambican soldiers due to rumours that Renamo fighters have infiltrated the refugee flow (HRW 22/02/2016; Inter Press 25/02/2016).

On 11 March, the government decided to re-open Luwani refugee camp, where some of the Mozambican refugees will be resettled. The camp can offer better services and protection than Kapise (UNHCR 15/03/2016). On 21 March, Malawian authorities suspended the transfer of the refugees to Luwani because the Mozambican government strongly opposes the move. Mozambique insists that the refugees should be repatriated (StarAfrica 21/03/2016; All Africa 21/03/2016).

600 Mozambican refugees are also reported in Nsanje district. The District Council has asked the government to open a refugee camp Chididi, Nsanje (Nyasa Times 30/03/2016).

Some 25,000 mostly long-term refugees and asylum seekers are in Malawi, mostly from DRC, Burundi, and Rwanda. They live in Dzaleka camp in Dowa district in central Malawi, or among host communities. Food rations in the camp have been reduced to 50% since October 2015 as resources to assist refugees are limited (UNHCR 18/02/2016).

Humanitarian access

Kapise camp on the Mozambican border is hard to reach because heavy rains have damaged the only access road (HRW 22/02/2016; The Malawi Star 19/02/2016).

Food security and livelihoods

The food crisis is the most severe in a decade as a result of the El Niño induced drought: 900,000 people are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes. 2.8 million people are food insecure, including 1.5 million children (SADC 27/02/2016; ECHO 04/03/2016; FEWSNET 18/03/2016). 25 of 28 districts are affected (Nutrition Cluster 26/02/2016). Food security outcomes are expected to improve after the harvest in May and continue until September (FEWSNET 31/03/2016).

Food assistance is underfunded and if no additional funding is provided, aid will be interrupted in mid-April (ECHO 04/03/2016; FEWSNET 31/03/2016).

Food availability

Cereal and maize production in 2016 is expected to fall from the already below-average 2015 harvest, due to erratic rains (FAO 09/03/2016; 11/03/2016). The delay of the 2015/2016 rainy season will extend the lean season beyond March (OCHA 14/03/2016). Harvesting is expected to begin in late April (FAO 11/03/2016).

Food access

Food prices continue to rise as more households rely on purchases for food needs. At the same time, purchasing power has been falling (WFP 03/02/2016). The price of maize is 73% higher that the three-year average. In southern Malawi, it can be up to 175% above the three-year average (WFP 05/02/2016; 17/02/2016; FEWSNET 31/03/2016).

Health

Cholera and typhoid cases are being reported in Malawi. El Niño is likely to increase the spread of both diseases (SADC 27/02/2016). Half of the Mozambican refugees seeking medical aid suffer from malaria (MSF 17/02/2016).

Cholera

A cholera outbreak has been reported in nine districts (Nutrition Cluster 26/02/2016). 71 cases were reported in the last week of February, which is higher that the weekly number of registered for the previous five weeks (UNICEF 02/03/2016). Nearly 450 cases, including 18 deaths were reported in January (Red Cross 24/01/2016).

Nutrition

There has been a significant increase in the number of malnourished children. Cases of severe acute malnutrition increased by 100% between December 2015 and January 2016, when 5,817 children were admitted for treatment (UNICEF 17/02/2016; Nutritional Cluster 26/02/2016). 47% of children under five years are chronically malnourished (FAO 14/12/2015).

WASH

Sanitation in the Kapise refugee camp, which hosts over 9,000 people, is very poor. Mozambican refugees have only 8L of water per person per day (MSF 17/02/2016). There are only two borehole wells and four pit latrines (HRW 22/02/2016).

Education

Kapise refugee camp has no school facilities (HRW 22/02/2016).

Protection

Mozambican refugees, which include hundreds of unaccompanied children, are at risk of attack by Mozambican soldiers (HRW 22/02/2016; Inter Press 25/02/2016).

Reports of rape and cross-border trafficking between Malawi and Mozambique are a longstanding concern. Malawian children are trafficked to Mozambique for forced work or sexual slavery (Government/UN 07/04/2015; Guardian 16/07/2012). On 30 July, police rescued 21 trafficked children in Blantyre while they were in transit to Mangochi from Mozambique (The Times Malawi 30/07/2015).

Updated: 06/04/2016

Mali Country Analysis

Mauritania Country Analysis

Niger Country Analysis

Politics and security

Insecurity stemming from crises in neighbouring Nigeria, Mali, and Libya continue to impact on populations in Niger. Threats from Boko Haram (BH) are of particular concern. BH has conducted over 72 attacks on civilians in Diffa region since February 2015 (OCHA 11/01/2016). Boko Haram remains active along the Komadougou Yobe River and insecurity persists (VoA 04/03/2016).

In October, authorities in Niger declared a state of emergency in Diffa region, which was extended for a third time on 29 January for three months (AFP 29/01/2016). A curfew and restricted movement of goods and people have been enforced in Diffa region (UNHCR 13/10/2015). Sporadic attacks against civilians as well as military operations continue. As of 21 March, eight violent incidents, including attacks, suicide bombings, clashes and mine explosions, had been recorded in Diffa region in 2016. 91 have been recorded since February 2015. On 16 March, armed men killed three gendarmes near the Malian border (OCHA 10/03/2016; 21/03/2016).

Thousands of troops from Niger and Chad launched a major ground and air offensive against BH in southeastern Niger in March 2015 (AFP 14/03/2015). Military operations and regular BH attacks across Diffa region have driven evacuations and displacement of populations (UNICEF 16/07/2015; OCHA 11/09/2015). A Multinational Joint Task Force (MJTF) comprising at least 8,700 troops from Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Cameroon and Benin under a common command, is yet to be fully deployed (AFP 15/10/2015).

In remote areas to the north and west of the country, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO) pose additional security threats. On 30 March, AQIM attacked a police station in Dolbel, Tillabery region, near Burkina Faso (ICG 01/04/2016).

Elections

Some clashes and an attempted coup were reported in the lead up to presidential elections, which took place over two rounds in February and March 2016 (ICG 01/12/2015; AFP 04/02/2016). Opposition groups disputed the legitimacy of first round results, which incumbent President Issoufou won (AFP 23/02/2016). The second round took place on 20 March, despite an opposition boycott. Issoufou won 92%, and was sworn in on 4 April (AFP 04/02/2016; Al Jazeera 23/03/2016). On 28 March, the opposition indicated it is ready to re-open a dialogue with the President, reducing the likelihood of post-poll violence (AFP 28/03/2016). The opposition leader Hama Amadou, jailed since November 2015, was released on bail on 29 March (BBC 29/03/2016).

Displacement

Niger faces multiple displacement crises. BH violence means approximately 319,000 displaced people are in Diffa region including IDPs, returnees from Nigeria, and Nigerian refugees (OCHA 08/02/2016). 60,000 Malian refugees are living in the southwest, mostly in camps (UNHCR 29/02/2016). Instability in Libya has prompted vulnerable Niger nationals to return home, and migrants of other nationalities to transit through the country, some of whom become stranded in transit, and need protection assistance, particularly in Agadez (IOM 15/09/2015).

Boko Haram crisis

The BH insurgency has triggered large-scale displacement in northeast Nigeria and continues to threaten citizens on and around Lake Chad, including in Niger, Chad, and Cameroon.

There are some 153,000 IDPs, including at least 59,000 who fled violence and 94,000 people who were evacuated by the military between November and December. 91,800 IDPs are children (UNICEF 31/12/2015; OCHA/Government 17/12/2015). Some 70 villages have been left empty in Diffa region since February 2015. Many of the displaced are living in makeshift camps along a 100km stretch of the main highway in Diffa region (UN 19/01/2016; UNHCR 19/01/2016). Population movement is driven by the need to seek better food and livelihood access, as well as by violence and insecurity (REACH 31/03/2016).

Additionally, an estimated 98,000 people displaced from Nigeria and 68,000 returned Niger migrants are estimated to be seeking refuge in the region (OCHA/Government 17/12/2015; 31/12/2015).

In total, 140 spontaneous displacement sites are reported across Diffa region, where displaced and their host communities are in urgent need of shelter, NFIs, and WASH (OCHA 29/02/2016; UNHCR 19/01/2016). Only 5% of refugees live in the two formal camps (Kablewa and Sayam Forage), which each have capacity to host 10,000 people, extendable to 20,000. Kablewa’s population was 8,000 in February 2016 and Sayam Forage’s population was 1,830 (UNHCR 02/2016; 02/2016).

Frequent population movements and limited access due to insecurity inhibit accurate profiling and tracking, as well as the delivery of assistance (UNHCR 18/11/2015). Many people were displaced more than five times in 2015 (IFRC 10/12/2015).

Mali crisis

Malian refugees have been arriving in Niger since the 2012–13 civil war. Increased lawlessness, food insecurity and inter-tribal violence in eastern Mali have driven renewed displacement, bringing the number of Malian refugees in Niger to 60,000, from 47,000 in the beginning of 2015 (UNHCR 29/02/2016; 10/11/2015; 31/10/2015).

Approximately 21,000 live in the hosting areas of Intikane and Tazalite, where they have access to pastoral activities and humanitarian assistance. A further 14,000 live in Abala camp, 10,700 in Tabareybarey, and 8,400 in Mangaize. Smaller populations live in urban centres, including Niamey and Ayerou Ville (UNHCR 29/02/2016).

Humanitarian access

A curfew and restrictions on movement have been imposed on Diffa region after a state of emergency was declared in October 2015 (Reuters 14/10/2015). In December the curfew was extended, to start an hour earlier (UNHCR 17/12/2015). Access beyond Diffa town in Diffa region is only possible with military escort, hampering access to populations in need (OCHA 20/01/2016). As of end February, restrictions on movement and bans on trade remained in place (UNHCR 29/02/2016).

Access of relief actors to affected populations

UN agencies can only access towns and settlements northeast of Diffa and Mainé Soroa – including Sayam Forage, Kablewa, and Bosso – with military escort (OCHA 11/01/2016). Escorts are not always readily available, which delays response (OCHA 29/02/2016).

Camps and hosting areas near the border with Mali are only accessible to humanitarian actors with military escorts, as are roads northeast of Agadez towards Libya (OCHA 31/10/2015).

Food security and livelihoods

Niger faces recurrent food crises, with an estimated 2.5 million people facing chronic food insecurity due to overreliance on subsistence agriculture, widespread poverty, and limited infrastructure, services and education (WFP 31/12/2015).

In 2016, over 2 million people without access to adequate food are estimated to need assistance (UNICEF 26/02/2016). Between 480,000 people and 657,000 people are facing Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phases 3 and 4) food security outcomes (OCHA, 30/11/2015). 97% of the severely food insecure population lives in four regions: Maradi (33%), Diffa (31%), Dosso (18%) and Tillabery (15%) (OCHA 30/11/2015). ). Crisis food security is expected to persist until September 2016 in Diffa region (FEWSNET 25/01/2016).

In Nguigmi and Abalak pastoral zones, which recorded insufficient rains, grain feeding of animals could begin earlier than usual, meaning Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes are expected (FEWSNET 04/03/2016).

Food availability

Provisional harvest results indicate an overall cereal surplus of 88,000 metric tons (OCHA 31/01/2016). However, over 4,000 villages across the country have reported cereal deficits of more than 50%, leaving 160 zones moderately to extremely vulnerable (OCHA 31/01/2016).

In Diffa region, a cereal deficit of 100,000 metric tons was reported in 2015, up 21% on the previous year, which was already well below meeting consumption needs (OCHA 31/01/2016; WFP 05/02/2016). Insecurity has constrained fishing and agriculture in and around Lake Chad and the Komadougou Yobe River (IFRC 10/12/2015).

Food access

Insecurity continues to limit food access in eastern Niger (FEWSNET 30/11/2015). A reduction in imported cereals has led to an increase in the prices of millet (19%) and sorghum (7%) compared to January 2015 (WFP 31/01/2016). 61% of households assessed in Diffa region in December 2015 reported limited food consumption (WFP 22/01/2016).

Livelihoods

Households in Niger face severely depleted assets and high levels of indebtedness (FAO 13/10/2015; FAO 17/12/2015).

In Diffa, regional authorities claim frequent BH attacks have cost the economy USD 32 million since February 2015, negatively impacting on the resilience of local communities (OCHA 02/11/2015). Major sources of income, including cross-border trade and work requiring motorbikes and vehicles, have been impeded by security constraints (IFRC 10/12/2015; OCHA 01/03/2016).The insecurity has severely restricted imports of cereals from Nigeria and exports of animals, peppers, and fish (WFP 31/03/2016). Diffa is at risk of pastoral crisis due to deficit of animal feed (OCHA 29/02/2016). Even areas of good vegetation coverage are at risk of overgrazing due to the high concentration of animals (WFP 05/02/2016).

Health

Health services are limited in Niger, particularly in rural areas, and Niger is prone to disease outbreaks. An estimated 700,000 people live in areas at risk of epidemics (OCHA/Government 11/12/2015).

Healthcare availability and access

Health services in Diffa region lack medicine and personnel, and are strained with the arrival of new IDPs (OCHA 20/05/2015). Diffa regional hospital is short of staff, as are 11 of 51 health centres in the region (WFP 01/09/2015). Health facilities in Sayam Forage and Kablewa displacement camps are weak: Sayam Forage camp’s nearest hospital is in Diffa town, 45km away (UNHCR 30/11/2015).

Outbreaks

Meningitis outbreaks often hit Niger early in the year. 979 cases of meningitis, including 74 deaths, have so far been reported in 2016 – more than four times the number reported by this time last year. Case fatality rate is 7.6%. Niamey, Dosso, and Tillabery are the worst affected areas. One district in Niamey has reached the epidemic threshold. Children under 14 years old represent 65% of all cases (OCHA 27/03/2016). In 2015, 8,500 cases were reported – the first major outbreak since 2009. With gaps in vaccination coverage remaining, health actors are preparing for 15,000 potential cases this year (OCHA 31/01/2016; ECHO 08/03/2016).

Measles cases are also being reported since the beginning of 2016 – so far 862, including 4 deaths. Worst affected regions are Niamey, Maradi, Tillabery and Zinder. The number of cases has halved compared to the same period last year (OCHA 27/03/2016; OCHA 18/03/2016).

Nutrition

Over 400,000 children are expected to suffer from SAM in 2016 (OCHA 09/03/2016). While nutrition rates in 2015 improved on 2014 figures, over 346,000 children were admitted for SAM treatment in 2015, including nearly 16,700 in Diffa (UNICEF 31/01/2016; OCHA 14/12/2014). Most of the children were in Tillabery, Maradi, Zinder, and Diffa regions (UNICEF 30/09/2015).

Diffa continues to face particularly poor nutrition outcomes. As of mid-March 2016, over 14,000 cases of SAM have been reported. A shortage of staff in health centres is limiting nutrition programmes (OCHA 02/11/2015; UNICEF 01/03/2016). Kablewa camp reports global acute malnutrition at 15.2%, including 4.0% SAM (WFP 05/02/2016). GAM is 11.2% in Sayam Forage camp, including 0.9% SAM.

Shelter and NFIs

An estimated 90,000 people need emergency or transitional shelters in Diffa region (UNHCR 07/12/2015). In towns closest to Lake Chad, over half the population are living in temporary shelters (REACH 31/01/2016). 35% of households in Diffa region live in shelters that do not meet minimum standards. Each host family hosts around 17 people (OCHA 20/05/2015).

135,000 people need NFIs in Diffa region (UNHCR 07/12/2015).

WASH

Across Diffa region, 60% of the population – more than 400,000 people – have no access to drinking water. 86% do not have access to adequate sanitation facilities (UNHCR 07/12/2015). 84 of 110 villages assessed in Diffa lack water points, and 89 villages are in need of sanitation assistance (latrines and showers): a total of 397 water points and 4,921 latrines are needed in the region (OCHA 02/11/2015; UNICEF 30/09/2015). 8,000 displaced people in Koublé Ngourtoua and Boudoum lack WASH services (OCHA 02/11/2015).

Education

An estimated 210,000 displaced children will need assistance accessing education (UNHCR 07/12/2015). An ongoing school relocation programme has so far facilitated the return to school of three-quarters of 12,500 students whose schools were closed due to insecurity (OCHA 31/01/2016). 40% of girls in Niger are enrolled in primary school, and only 20% in middle school (AFP 04/11/2015). Anglophone children from Nigeria face education barriers in Niger’s Francophone school system (UNCHR 07/12/2015).

Protection

Populations in Diffa region face major protection risks, including regular attacks on civilians, military operations near settlements, and a lack of documentation (UNHCR 07/09/2015). Women, children, and other vulnerable groups, including migrants, journalists and Christians all face specific protection risks. 

Deficient border control and corruption have contributed to people smuggling, drug trade, and the uncontrolled movement of arms and armed groups through Niger and the Sahel region (Danish Institute for Security Studies 02/2016).

Opponents of the President face heightened protection risks during the election period. Prominent supporters of opposition candidate Hama Amadou have been arrested for inciting civil disobedience (ICG 01/03/2016).

Children

190,000 children are reported to be in need of protection assistance (OCHA 27/01/2016). Niger has the highest percentage of child brides in the world, many of whom are sold by families to help cope with drought. According to CARE research, 76% of girls marry before they are 18 years old, and have little access to contraception or reproductive health services (CARE 09/10/2015).

Vulnerable groups

Migrants: Migrants face significant protection risks in the transit city of Agadez, where smugglers and traffickers of people, drugs and counterfeit goods take advantage of vulnerable people heading north to or returning from Libya (UNODC 20/08/2015). As of 26 December, 7,300 migrants had been repatriated from Algeria in 2015, including 2,500 minors (OCHA 15/01/2016).

Journalists: Press freedom tightened as the elections approached. Five journalists were reportedly arrested in ten days in November, four of whom were at the airport when opposition leader Hama Amadou was arrested on his return from exile. Another five journalists were arrested while covering a student demonstration in October (Reporters sans Frontières 25/10/2015).

Christians: Protection for Niger’s Christian minority has been a major concern since anti-Christian riots left 10 dead and many churches destroyed in January 2015 (AFP 25/12/2015).

Documentation

Approximately 80% of displaced people, including IDPs, refugees, and returnees, lack identification documentation, complicating registration procedures (UNHCR, 13/10/2015; OCHA 02/11/2015). Security impediments have forced UNHCR to postpone recent missions to Gagamari and Assaga for the identification of families wishing to relocate to Sayam Forage camp (UNHCR, 16/10/2015).

Mines and ERW

Landmines are reportedly laid along the border between Niger and Nigeria, especially in areas near the Komadougou Yobe River (UNHCR 30/04/2015).

Updated: 06/04/2016

Occupied Palestinian Territories Country Analysis

Politics and security

Heightened tensions across oPt in September developed significantly in October: violent clashes between Palestinians and Israeli forces, as well as stabbings of Israelis by Palestinians, have been a regular occurrence. Israeli authorities have implemented new security measures including the deployment of at least 300 more soldiers, additional checkpoints, longer prison sentences for stone throwers, and accelerated a policy of punitive demolition of the family homes of Palestinian attackers. There has also been a sharp increase in the numbers of arrests and detentions (20/01/2016). Some of these measures are said to constitute forms of collective punishment and a violation of human rights (OCHA 31/01/2016; 06/01/2016; AFP 09/01/2016). 

On 2 October, Mahmoud Abbas, head of the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Fatah, stated that the PA was considering ending two decades of security cooperation with Israel. This would represent a severe deterioration in relations between the PA and Israel (AFP 02/10/2015). The Palestinian unity government resigned in June. Hamas now governs the Gaza Strip, and Fatah the West Bank (Al Jazeera 17/06/2015).

On 30 June, Islamic State (IS) declared its intentions to replace Hamas as the main power in Gaza. No action followed, but Sinai, the Egyptian territory adjacent to Gaza, continues to be the site of major clashes between the Egyptian army and armed groups allied to IS (Independent 01/07/2015; Al Jazeera 19/03/2016). Sunni militants linked to IS have said they were behind rockets launched from Gaza in recent months, but Israel holds Hamas responsible (AFP 02/01/2016).

Stakeholders

Hamas is an Islamist organisation established in 1987 during the first Palestinian Intifada – The Uprising (1987–1993), with the aim of resisting the Israeli occupation. It provides some social welfare programmes, and its military wing, the Izzedine al Qassam Brigades, fights Israel. In 2006 Hamas won political office in Gaza. Tensions with its secular rival Fatah erupted in 2007, when Hamas set up a rival government in the Gaza Strip. A unity government was formed in June 2014, however this collapsed less than one year later, due to continued disagreement between the two parties. Reconciliation negotiations have been ongoing intermittently since the collapse of the unity government, however tensions persist (IBT 17/06/2015; Al Monitor 08/03/2015). Hamas has regularly fired rockets into Israel and conducted attacks against Israeli military and civilian targets.

Fatah or the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) was founded in the late 1950s for the purpose of launching commando raids on Israel. Despite being expelled from Jordan, and then Lebanon, it eventually became the controlling power behind the Palestinian Authority (PA), which was founded in the 1990s. Fatah lost control of Gaza in 2007 to Hamas. Fatah remains the dominant party in the West Bank and within the PA.

Israel has occupied the West Bank and east Jerusalem since 1967. It has been accused of pursuing a policy of illegal ‘settlement construction’ in the West Bank and forcibly displacing Palestinians from territory recognised by the UN as Palestinian. Israel withdrew its forces and removed its settlers from the Gaza Strip in 2005, but imposed a strict blockade in 2007 to control the flow of goods and materials. Israel and Hamas have been involved in three major conflicts in 2008, 2012 and 2014. In each, Israel has been accused of the disproportionate use of force.

Conflict developments

Incidents between Palestinians and Israeli security forces and Israeli settlers dramatically increased during the third quarter of 2015. International media report that since 1 October, violent clashes have killed at least 206 Palestinians, 29 Israelis, an Arab Israeli, two US citizens, a Sudanese and an Eritrean (Al Jazeera 31/03/2016; AFP 14/03/2016). At least 45 of the Palestinians killed were children (PRCS 26/03/2016). Over 15,000 Palestinians and 350 Israelis are reported to have been injured (OCHA 06/01/2016).  

Since the beginning of 2016 the frequency and intensity of protests, clashes and attacks against Israelis have fallen, but remain well above pre-October levels of violence (OCHA 29/02/2016). Over 60 people have been killed and over 1,000 have been injured since the start of 2016 (PRCS 26/03/2016). There are speculations that the level of violence may increase again during the Jewish holidays in April (The Guardian 31/03/2016).

West Bank and East Jerusalem

Clashes and protests between Palestinians and Israeli security forces have been occurring across the West Bank almost daily since 1 October. Settler violence has increased since early October (OCHA 08/12/2015). The majority of injuries recorded have been in the Qalqilya, Hebron, and Bethlehem governorates (OCHA 08/12/2015; 02/01/2016).

On 10 March, Israeli authorities reportedly seized 234 hectares of land south of Jericho for settlement. This is largest appropriation of land since August 2014 (Al Jazeera 15/03/2016).

Gaz​a

Violent clashes and protests have occurred regularly since 1 October, mostly along the border fence with Israel (OCHA 29/02/2016; UNRWA 22/03/2016). On 25 March, 5,000 people protested in Gaza in solidarity with the situation in the West Bank (UNRWA 31/03/2016).

People are frequently injured in the Access Restricted Area (ARA), which is also referred to as the Israeli buffer zone. This is the area along the land and sea borders of Gaza. Israeli forces open fire on those accused of entering. Since the start of February the number of recorded incidents of Israeli forces shooting in to this area has increased compared to previous months: in the second half of March Israeli forces have fired towards Palestinian areas along the perimeter fence on a daily basis. No injuries have been reported (OCHA 31/03/2016; UNRWA 22/03/2016).

On 12 March two children died during Israeli airstrikes on a Hamas training camp in Gaza (Israeli Information Centre for Human Rights 30/03/2016).

Displacement

263,600 people were displaced in oPt as of July 2015 (IDMC). 141,500 are in the West Bank and are mostly in protracted displacement. Up to 122,000 are in Gaza, around 95,000 of whom were displaced by the July–August 2014 conflict (OCHA 25/01/2016). Around 12,500 Palestinians were displaced between 2009 and early April 2015 after evictions, demolitions or pressure from settlers in Hebron (IDMC 28/09/2015). The escalation of tensions and violence since October has resulted in the increased speed and use of punitive housing demolitions. There has also been a sharp increase in the number of demolitions due to the perceived lack of a building permit. February marked the highest number of housing demolitions since records began in 2009 (OCHA 29/02/2016).

Many IDPs are believed to be staying with the host communities, but their exact location, shelter requirements and other needs are unclear (OCHA 31/01/2016).

Humanitarian access

Israel continues to impose a blockade on Gaza, severely restricting the movement of goods and people.

In response to the latest wave of violence Israeli authorities have intensified access restrictions across the West Bank, including the implementation of more checkpoints and roadblocks. Since October, 91 new obstacles have been implemented and remain in place. This is in addition to over 450 pre-existing obstacles, representing a 20% increase in the overall number (OCHA 31/01/2016). Restrictions on Palestinian freedom of movement are causing delays and hindering access to services and livelihoods (OCHA 06/01/2016; PRCS 05/03/2016).

Access of relief actors to affected populations

The Palestinian Red Crescent has reported 393 assaults on the organisation since 3 October, and regular restrictions on the movements of their ambulances by the Israeli authorities. The vast majority were recorded in 2015 (PRCS 02/04/2016). Israeli forces have damaged almost half of the society’s ambulances since October (Al Jazeera 19/12/2015).

Between January and end of October 2015, 28% of applications that allow for the movement of UN national staff were denied or pending, marking an increase in denials compared to 2014 (OCHA 25/01/2016).

Access of affected populations to assistance

West Bank and East Jerusalem:  In East Jerusalem, a checkpoint in Jabal Al Moukaber and roadblocks in Eisawiah continue to affect the movement of residents and hinder access to medical assistance (PRCS 05/03/2016). Since 22 March, Palestinians aged between 15 and 25 have been banned from accessing certain streets in Hebron, for the second time since October (OCHA 31/01/2016).

There has been an increase in confiscation of materials provided by humanitarian actors in response to housing demolitions (Shelter Cluster 29/02/2016).

Gaza

There is a 55% energy deficit in Gaza. The entire population of Gaza is affected by rolling power cuts that are in effect daily, due to lack of fuel and interrupted supply from Egypt (OCHA 25/01/2016; 04/01/2016).

Rafah Crossing is often closed. For the first time since early December the crossing was opened over 13-14 February, allowing 700 people to exit Gaza and 700 others to return from Egypt. At least 30,000 Palestinians are registered as humanitarian cases waiting to leave Gaza via Rafah (OCHA 29/02/1016).

Erez Crossing:  The crossing remains open only for those with Israeli issued permits, primarily medical cases and aid workers (OCHA 30/11/2015). In November an increase in the number of medical referrals out of Gaza was issued due to the deteriorating health service in Gaza. However, the number of exit permits being approved has decreased, making access to external facilities more difficult (OCHA 08/12/2015).

Food security and livelihoods

1.6 million people are food insecure, equating to 31% of the population: this includes 28% of the population of Gaza who are severely food insecure (OCHA 29/02/2016; 25/01/2016). In Gaza staple food prices increased significantly during the second half of 2015, while wages decreased. Consequently, food insecurity has increased and over half the population of Gaza rely on food assistance (UNRWA 31/03/2016). Electricity shortages have impacted food production and refrigeration. Delays at crossings are complicating deliveries. 

Livelihoods

The olive industry makes up 25% of agricultural income in oPt, supporting the livelihoods of 100,000 families. An estimated 11,000 olive trees were vandalised by settlers in 2015. This is the largest figure recorded since 2011. The yield for 2015 is 25% less than 2014 (OCHA 31/10/2015). 

Since the start of the year, demolition of structures relating to livelihoods has affected 1,700 Palestinians in Area C (OCHA 04/03/2016).

On three separate occasions in 2016, Palestinians have been banned from entering settlements following attacks against Israelis, affecting the livelihoods of Palestinians who work inside the settlements (AFP 28/02/2016; Al Jazeera 20/02/2016).

Health

1.4 million people are in need of health assistance (OCHA 14/12/2015).

Healthcare availability and access

Patients requiring medical assistance regularly have to be referred to services in either Egypt or Israel.

Al Shifa hospital in Gaza is running with only 80% of staff, and half the buildings are at risk of collapse (Al Jazeera 08/12/2015). Gaza’s electricity supply has decreased to between four and eight hours a day, placing additional strain on health infrastructure (OCHA 25/01/2016).

Child health

The infant mortality rate in Gaza has risen for the first time in more than five decades, from 20.2 per 1,000 live births in 2008 to 22.4 in 2013, the last date with available information (UN 09/08/2015).

Mental health

282,000 children are in need of psychosocial support (OCHA 02/12/2015). Trauma among children has become an increasingly significant problem since the escalation of violence in October (SOS International 15/02/2016).

Nutrition

1.4 million people are in need of nutrition assistance (OCHA 14/12/2015).

WASH

1.7 million people are in need of WASH assistance, particularly access to water (OCHA 14/12/2015).

Water

More than 40% of Gaza’s population receive just five to eight hours’ water supply once every three days (OCHA 29/02/2016). The Coastal Aquifer Basin is the only source of fresh water in Gaza. Only 5% of this water is potable (Al Jazeera 08/11/2015). 60% of the population resort to private, unregulated water suppliers with lower hygiene standards, they are therefore prone to public health risks (OCHA 29/02/2016).

Over 85% of the Bedouin communities in Area C of the West Bank are not connected to water (OCHA 06/05/2015; 30/04/2015).

Sanitation

Sanitation facilities are in dire conditions across the Gaza strip. 23% of Gaza’s population are not connected to the sewage network (OCHA 29/02/2016).

Shelter

An estimated 1 million Palestinians are in need of shelter and NFI assistance (OCHA 25/01/2016). 

90,000 people displaced by the 2014 Gaza-Israeli hostilities remain in need of improved temporary shelter (OCHA 31/01/2016). 590,000 people are living in damaged houses or makeshift shelters. The Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism agreed by Palestinian and Israeli governments has allowed for the import of materials needed for the reconstruction of 15% of the houses destroyed (OCHA 31/01/2016).

In Area C of the West Bank, 107 communities have been identified as living in bad conditions and are in need of assistance (Shelter Cluster 16/11/2015).

Education

600,000 people are in need of education assistance (OCHA 14/12/2015). 

The heightened level of violence that began in October continues to impact children’s access to school. Roads are blocked around Hebron and some schools are closed (SOS International 15/02/2016).

On 21 February Israeli authorities dismantled a school in the Bedouin community of Abu Nuwar, east of Jerusalem, due to lack of a building permit (OCHA 22/02/2016). On 2 March another school was demolished in Khirbet Tana, southeast of Nablus (OCHA 04/03/2016).

Protection

The Israeli authorities are accused of detaining individuals without trial, including children; forcibly displacing communities; legalising the use of force feeding of prisoners; and building on and claiming Palestinian land (Al Jazeera 30/07/2015; EU 27/01/2016). Israeli authorities have been accused of increasingly using torture methods against detainees. The Palestinian Authority has also been accused of using torture methods on prisoners (B’T Selem and HaMoked 12/2015; AFP 24/02/2016). Since 18 February, 84 administrative detention orders have been placed on Palestinians: 39 were newly arrested and 45 others had their detention prolonged. The total number of Palestinians held under administrative detention inside Israel is 700 (AFP 29/02/2016).

At least 361 violations against Palestinian journalists were documented in 2015, 100 of these since the latest wave of violence began in October (Al Jazeera 14/12/2015).

Since October there has been a sharp increase in the number of human rights workers subjected to physical attacks, harassment, arrest, detention and death threats, and particularly around Hebron (UN Human Rights Council 18/12/2015). 

Demolitions

Since the latest wave of violence began in October 2015, Israeli authorities have carried out an increasing number of punitive housing demolitions. On 4 April in Jenin, three apartments were destroyed that belonged to family members of individuals responsible for attacks on Israelis. 22 people were displaced (Israeli Information Centre for Human Rights 05/04/2016).

Israeli authorities have recently intensified the destruction or confiscation of property in Area C due to a perceived lack of building permits. February marked the highest number of housing demolitions since records began in 2009: 237 homes and other structures were targeted in the occupied West Bank, displacing 330 Palestinians. In March a further 60 structures were demolished displacing around 100 people (OCHA 31/03/2016;  24/03/2016).

Over 450 structures have been demolished since the start of the year and over 600 Palestinians, an average of 42 people each week, have been displaced – half of them children. 90% of the displaced were in Area C. The number of demolitions in 2016 constitutes 90% of the total number of demolitions for the whole of 2015 (OCHA 31/03/2016; 29/02/2016).  

There are up to 11,000 outstanding housing demolition orders against Palestinian property in Area C of the West Bank (OCHA 06/01/2016).

Vulnerable groups

38 communities, home to 6,000 Palestinians, live in or near the 18% of the West Bank designated by the Israeli authorities as “firing zones”, areas of land claimed by the Israeli military for training and security purposes (OCHA 29/02/2016). Palestinians who live in these zones face severe access restrictions, recurrent demolition, and incidents of forced displacement and home demolition. Communities are also often temporarily displaced to allow for Israeli military training (OCHA 09/11/2015; 06/01/2015).

On 22 November the Israeli government approved a plan which allows for the construction of five Jewish settlements in the Negev region in Area C of the West Bank, including on two Bedouin villages, home to 7,500 people (Al Jazeera 26/11/2015). The Israeli government plans to relocate the Bedouin communities to three designated sites away from their current location (UNRWA 19/01/2016).

Over 85% of the Bedouin communities are not connected to the electricity and water networks (OCHA 06/05/2015; 30/04/2015).

Mines and explosive remnants of war (ERW)

Palestinian civilians and security forces continue to be killed and injured by explosive remnants of war. Over 7,000 ERW are estimated to remain in Gaza, a result of the 2014 hostilities (ECHO 31/12/2015).

Children

Over 2,100 children have been injured in clashes with Israeli forces since violence escalated in October (Al Jazeera 21/03/2015; OCHA 01/2016). At least 45 Palestinian children have been killed (PRCS 26/03/2016).

The Israeli army continues to arrest or detain Palestinian children as young as 11 (HRW 20/07/2015). The number of Palestinian children in Israeli prisons rose from 156 at the end of September to over 400 by end December (UNICEF 17/02/2016). This is the largest number of children inside the Israeli prison system since 2009. Three-quarters of them are reported to have experienced some form of physical violence following arrest. Six children are currently under administrative detention: this is the first time this measure has been used against Palestinian minors in four years (OCHA 31/01/2016; Defense for Children International, 20/01/2016).  

Updated: 06/03/2016

Pakistan Country Analysis

OVERVIEW

Around 3.6 million people are in need of humanitarian aid in Pakistan. The security situation remains volatile due to militant attacks in urban centres and military operations against the Taliban in the tribal areas. Over 1 million people remain displaced within Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA. Additionally 1.5 million registered and around 1.2 million undocumented Afghans are staying in Pakistan. The needs of IDPs and Afghan refugees in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are of particular concern.

Politics and security

Political stability and security are limited in several regions of Pakistan, including Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), and Gilgit-Baltistan (World Bank 24/09/2015; Diplomacy Pakistan 17/11/2015; Tribune 13/05/2015; DAWN 09/07/2015). The government carried out large-scale operations against the Taliban in North Waziristan and Khyber agency (FATA) between June 2014 and July 2015, after the Taliban vowed to start all-out war on the government (Alhasan Systems 22/07/2015; DAWN 30/03/2015; 23/03/2015). The offensive and Taliban attacks have had a severe humanitarian impact in FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, as a result of such operations, 2015 recorded a sensible decrease in anti-state violence, with less attacks recorded than in 2008 (SATP 18/10/2015; DAWN 01/04/2016). Elsewhere, sectarian violence continues, particularly in Sindh and Balochistan. Balochistan is also affected by a prolonged separatist insurgency. In the disputed region of Kashmir, conflict flares sporadically at the Line of Control dividing Pakistan and India (SATP 18/10/2015). 4,654 violence-related deaths were recorded in Pakistan in 2015, compared to 7,611 in 2014, and 5,694 in 2013 (DAWN 02/01/2016).

Balochistan

Several armed groups, including the Baloch Liberation Front (BLF), have been fighting for greater autonomy since 1948 (ICG 01/10/2015).

Police officers have been frequently targeted in attacks, with a particularly high number in Quetta since June 2015 (DAWN 20/10/2015; 27/07/2015; 14/07/2015; 11/06/2015; 06/06/2015; Dunya News 09/01/2016). Over 8,000 suspected militants were arrested and 204 killed in 2015, according to the home secretary of the province (ICG 01/10/2015). On 10 March 2016, BLA militants were involved in a gunfight with security forces in Sibi District, East of Quetta, in Balochistan. Media sources report that a BLA commander and other seven militants were killed (DAWN 10/03/2016).

Foreign relations

Pakistan’s relations with India have been tense for decades, and deteriorated with a surge in violence in Kashmir in late 2015 (Jakarta Post 03/10/2015). On 9 December, media sources reported that India and Pakistan had agreed to resume peace talks, starting dialogue over territorial disputes “from scratch” (AFP 09/12/2015). On 8 March 2016, the British Foreign Secretary invited Pakistan and India to stop providing space to anti-state militants, and pointed out that the situation in Kashmir should not be a precondition for talks between the two countries (DAWN 08/03/2016).

Relations with Afghanistan have deteriorated. The government of Pakistan has accused Afghanistan of not doing enough to prevent militant groups using its territory to plan and organise attacks on Pakistan (ICG 01/10/2015; Reuters 18/09/2015; VOA 02/11/2015). The latest was the 20 January Taliban attack on Bacha Khan University in Charsadda (DAWN 20/01/2016; 21/01/2016; The Guardian 20/01/2016). Some sources report that Pakistan might have jeopardized the peace process between Afghanistan and the Taliban, despite having participated to the four-state group that was working to revive the peace talks, and having hosted several of its meetings. A former minister of interior of Afghanistan accused Pakistan of aiming to prevent Afghanistan from reaching peace and stability, because of its own interests in the region (The Diplomat 12/03/2016; The Pashtun Times 01/04/2016).

Security incidents

In the first months of 2016, militant violence has reportedly increased in Pakistan, especially in the provinces of FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, compared to 2015. Last year anti-state violence fell below 2008 levels, because of the 2014/2015 security operations (BBC 20/01/2016; DAWN 01/04/2016).

Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

In January 2016, renewed security operations displaced 2,000 people in FATA (ECHO 20/01/2016).

On 31 March, a car bomb killed at least four people on the road to Lakki Marwat, South Waziristan area (AFP 31/03/2016).

On 16 March, a bomb attack in Peshawar killed at least 17 people and injured more than 24. No group has so far claimed responsibility (AFP 16/03/2016). On 7 March, a suicide attack by a Taliban splinter group killed at least eight people and injured 21 in Charsadda, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (AFP 07/03/2016). On 1 March, a roadside bomb killed two Pakistanis working for a US counternarcotics programme in Peshawar (The Guardian 01/03/2016).

Punjab

On 27 March, a bomb attack in Lahore killed at least 72 people and injured more than 300. It targeted Christians celebrating Easter in a park. A similar attack in the area occurred in March last year, with at least 14 people killed and 78 wounded. The Pakistani Taliban (TTP) claimed responsibility for both the attacks, and reported its intention to carry out new attacks in the future (DAWN 29/03/2016; CNN 28/03/2016; 15/03/2015).

Natural disasters

Pakistan is considered one of the most vulnerable countries to earthquakes or disasters triggered by hazards related to climate change, and the population is highly exposed to large-scale events (UNDP 04/12/2015; DAWN 04/10/2015).

Heavy rains

Heavy rains between 2 and 3 April killed over 60 people and injured dozens in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, Balochistan, FATA, and Azad Jammu and Kashmir. Landslides and roof collapse are the main cause of death. The government of Gilgit Baltistan has declared a state of emergency (ECHO 04/04/2016; The Guardian 03/04/2016). In March, at least 140 people died and over 1,000 houses were damaged or destroyed after heavy rains in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Balochistan, Punjab, and FATA. (NDMA 29/03/2016). Last year, 81 people died and over 300,000 were affected by the rainy season (AFP 13/03/2016).

Displacement

More than 1 million people remain internally displaced since security operations first began in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA in 2009; 5.3 million people left their homes overall (OCHA 22/02/2016; 31/12/2015). In addition, Pakistan hosts over 1.5 million registered Afghan refugees and an estimated 1.2 million unregistered Afghan nationals (ECHO 16/11/2015).

IDPs

Over 1 million people remain displaced in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA as of 24 March, mostly in Bannu (347,000), Dera Ismail Khan (222,000), and Tank (126,000) (OCHA 24/03/2016; 29/02/2016). The number of IDPs have fallen by around one-third since June 2015 (UNHCR 06/2015). Only around 2% of IDPs are in camps; the rest are in host communities. (OCHA 21/01/2016; 08/10/2015; UNHCR 30/09/2015; 01/12/2015). An estimated 75% of the displaced are women and children (OCHA 30/09/2015).

In the week up to 20 January, renewed security operations displaced an additional 2,200 people (ECHO 20/01/2016).

The phased return of IDPs in FATA started in mid-March 2015. As of 24 March 2016, around 750,000 people (125,315 registered families) have returned: 74,712 families to Khyber agency, 37,000 to North Waziristan, 9,865 to South Waziristan, 3,038 to Kurram, and 700 to Orakzai (OCHA 24/03/2016; 12/10/2015). Returnees find damaged infrastructure and limited access to basic services (UNDP 27/01/2016).

Refugees in Pakistan

1.5 million documented Afghan refugees live in Pakistan, mostly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (950,900), Balochistan (302,800), and Punjab (172,000) (OCHA 08/03/2016). Over 1.2 million Afghans more are living undocumented in the country, as of 22 January 2016 (ECHO 22/01/2016). Of these, 281,000 are in Balochistan (DAWN 07/12/2015).

Pakistani authorities have included the repatriation of refugees in a new anti-terrorism action plan, after the Taliban attack on a school in Peshawar in December 2014 (AAN 09/03/2015). However, on 14 January 2016, registered Afghan refugees were granted a six-month extension to their stay, until 30 June 2016, and on 19 February, an extension of their stay until the 31 December 2017 was reported to be under consideration (DAWN 14/01/2016; 19/02/2016).

Pakistani refugees in neighbouring countries

As of 8 December, around 236,600 Pakistani refugees are reported to be in Afghanistan (UNHCR 21/12/2015).  As of September, the return of Pakistanis from Afghanistan’s Paktika and Khost provinces was reported to be unlikely, as they were already being integrated by many host communities (Solidarités International 02/09/2015).

90,000 Pakistanis were repatriated from the EU in 2015 (AFP 06/11/2015). However, the EU has voiced concerns over the difficulties repatriating undocumented Pakistani migrants, caused by lack of clarity in repatriation agreements with Pakistan, which has accused EU members of deporting Pakistani nationals without verification (Tribune Pakistan 26/01/2016; DAWN 27/01/2016).

Humanitarian access

The principal concern in terms of humanitarian access is violence against healthcare workers. Frequent episodes of violence targeting health workers delivering polio vaccinations have occurred, especially in FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (DAWN 13/11/2015; VOA 14/02/2015; BBC 17/02/2015; Al Jazeera 28/03/2015).

Access of aid workers to affected population

Several security incidents involving aid workers were reported in 2015. Four peace volunteers were killed: one in Mohmand Agency in May, and three in Khyber Agency in February (DAWN 11/05/2015; 03/02/2015; 06/04/2015). 37 violent incidents of resistance to polio vaccination campaigns were recorded in 2015. 16 people were attacked, compared to 50 in 2016. 11 were killed and five were injured. 75% were health workers, 25% were security officers. 88% of the attacked were male, and 12% were female (OCHA 15/03/2016).

Food security and livelihoods

1.5 million people are reportedly in need of food security assistance in Pakistan (OCHA 08/03/2016). An estimated 58% of households in the country are food insecure (DAWN 04/04/2016). According to the most recent IPC analysis, Tharparkar and Badin districts, Sindh province, were in Crisis in November 2015 (ECHO 08/01/2016). In June, four districts were facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food security outcomes, including South Waziristan and North Waziristan agencies in FATA, and Chagai district in Balochistan. 29 districts were facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes, mostly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, FATA, and Balochistan (FAO 20/11/2015; Food Security Cluster 03/02/2016). The 2015–2016 winter has been particularly warm and dry in Pakistan, ruining crops (Reuters 18/03/2016).

Livelihoods

95% of the cultivable land in FATA is reportedly either fallow or damaged. For returning IDPs, seeds, tools, equipment, and fertilisers are priorities so they can reclaim land for agriculture (OCHA 11/02/2016). 70% of the IDP population in FATA depends on daily labour and other unstable sources of livelihoods. Only 30% have more stable occupations, such as agriculture or shop-keeping (OCHA 11/02/2016).

Health

3.3 million people are in need of health in Pakistan (OCHA 08/03/2016). Concerns about inadequate facilities, unskilled and untrained staff, and mismanagement in the national healthcare system have been raised following a spike in the caseload of some communicable diseases (DAWN 27/06/2015; 16/05/2015; The Nation 13/04/2015). Together with Afghanistan, Pakistan is one of the two countries where polio remains endemic (GPEI 24/11/2015). On 9 March, a member of the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) reported that the Zika pathogen had been found in mosquitoes in Pakistan (Al Hasan 14/03/2016).

Child health

As of 12 March, over 200 children have died in Tharparkar district, in Sindh, in 2016, because of drought-related waterborne and viral diseases, including diarrhoeal diseases. Some humanitarian organisations pointed out that limited access to healthcare and poor water quality represent a substantial vulnerability (Al Hasan 14/03/2016; DAWN 14/02/2016; USAID 25/03/2016). A lack of food and medicines is reported (Al Hasan 01/02/2016). Access to healthcare in Tharparkar district is very limited, with families that often have to travel an average of 17km to reach health facilities (IRIN 04/02/2016). Tharparkar district of Sindh province has experienced drought for four consecutive years.

Dengue

In 2015, 9,899 cases of dengue were recorded, including seven deaths, compared to 1,991 cases and 18 deaths in 2014. In 2013, the number of cases was 20,710, including 104 deaths (Al Hasan 01/02/2016). Reports indicate that dengue has become an all-season disease in Karachi, due to inadequate response of health authorities (Al Hasan 16/02/2016; 14/12/2015). As of 24 March, 313 of the 328 dengue cases reported in Sindh in 2016 were in Karachi. No deaths have been reported so far (Al Hasan 26/03/2016).

Polio

As of 24 March, seven polio cases have been recorded in Pakistan in 2016: three in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, three in Sindh, and one in Quetta, Balochistan (Al Hasan 26/03/2016). In the same period of last year, at least 19 cases were reported, out of a total of 54 in 2015. 306 occurred in 2014 (Global Polio Eradication Initiative 23/03/2016; Al Hasan 14/03/2016). According to government officials, the overall decrease in cases is explained by increased security for health personnel and improved social mobilisation, especially in FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (DAWN 19/10/2015). In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, only 18 cases were reported in 2015, compared to 68 in 2014 (DAWN 12/01/2016; 04/01/2016). Between 15 and 18 March, 97% of 36.8 million children targeted for polio vaccination were reached. 46,967 refusals were reported. Three health workers were shot in Shikarpur district, in Sindh (Government 18/03/2016; DAWN 16/03/2016).

On 10 January 2016, Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed to synchronise vaccination campaigns (DAWN 10/01/2016). Vaccination teams are working on the official entry points over the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. However, different routes across the border make it very challenging to reach 100% coverage (DAWN 06/02/2016; 14/02/2016).

Nutrition

The global acute malnutrition (GAM) rate is 15.1%. Over 3.5 million children are undernourished, and 1 million children (5.8%) suffer from severe acute malnutrition (SAM) (ECHO 26/10/2015; 22/01/2016). In South Waziristan agency, global acute malnutrition among IDPs is above the emergency threshold of 15% (OCHA 17/09/2015; EM-DAT 2015). In Sindh, the areas worst affected by the drought have reached 25% GAM and 11.1% SAM (ECHO 24/02/2016).

WASH

1.1 million people in Pakistan are in need of WASH assistance (OCHA 08/03/2016).

Water

In July 2015, around 50% of the 1,500 government-run health facilities did not have access to water. (Inter Press News 15/11/2015).

As of 16 February, 100,000 people in Gwadar city, Balochistan still have no access to clean water, with children and women forced to carry water for miles to cover their needs. The shortage is due to the Ankara Dam drying up in December. The government was still carrying out water trucking (DAWN 21/12/2015; 06/02/2016; 16/02/2016).

Shelter and NFIs

Shelter is a main concern for over 1 million displaced in FATA (USAID 18/12/2015).

Education

1.4 million people are in need of education assistance in Pakistan (OCHA 08/03/2016).

In FATA only around 4,800 of 6,000 education facilities are functional because of the security situation or militants’ threats (DAWN 24/01/2016).

Rural areas, in particular, are affected by a lack of education facilities (Peace Child 08/01/2015). Schools reportedly lack basic facilities such as drinking water and toilets. Teachers are reported to lack adequate education (DAWN 22/06/2015). 

Protection

2.4 million people are in need of protection assistance in Pakistan (OCHA 08/03/2016). Lack of documentation for refugees, underreporting of violence against women and children, and inadequate or inappropriate behaviour of the police are among the main protection issues. (Pakistan Gender News 28/11/2015; DAWN 01/06/2015; 02/11/2015; Tribune Pakistan 14/05/2015; HRW 18/11/2015).

Vulnerable groups

Media workers have been increasingly targeted by different factions in the last years, reaching a peak of 32 attacks in 2014. In 2015, two media personnel were killed, six were injured, and many were manhandled (Pakistan Press Foundation 01/2016).

Updated: 04/04/2016

Swaziland

LATEST DEVELOPMENTS

No new significant developments this week 05/04/2016, last update : 01/04/2016

KEY FIGURES

-300,000 people in severe need of food and water assistance because of falls in maize production in 2015.
 

Humanitarian context and needs

Disasters: Drought

With poor and erratic rainfall as a result of El Niño, dating back to 2014, the country has been experiencing significant reductions in crop production in 2016, a situation that will worsen food security during 2016–17 (FEWSNET 01/2016). At least 300,000 people – one-third of the population – are in dire need of assistance, specifically of food and water. All five major rivers are flowing below critical environmental sustainability levels (UN 25/02/2016).

The Government of Swaziland declared a national drought disaster on 18 February 2016. These conditions are expected to continue until March/April 2016, with the effects forecast to last into 2017. The situation is worse than during the 1992 drought (ECHO 09/03/2016 UN 25/02/2016).

Food security

The number of food insecure households rose to 23% in 2015. Moderate food insecurity has increased to 18.2 % from a previous four-year average of 9.8%, and severe food insecurity increased to 5.5 % from an average of 3%.  Between July and December 2015, food insecurity has increased by 60% (ECHO 09/03/2016).

At least 300,000 people – one- third of the population – are in dire need of assistance, specifically of food and water. This number could increase from May/June 2016, as temperatures start decreasing with the beginning of winter. The planting season, normally from October to November, began 30–60 days late and severely impact maize yields (FAO 29/02/2016)..

Maize production fell by 31% in 2015, and is expected to be lower in the 2016 crop season, until May. Maize is a staple food in Swaziland, so the drop in production had notable impacts on food security, South Africa, on which Swaziland relies for 90% of its food imports, has also seen a significant reduction in maize production. At the end of January 2016, maize prices increased by 66% from the five year average in a country in which just under half of the population is unemployed (ECHO 04/03/2016 FAO 29/02/2016). As of 9 March, food prices are expected to rise further in the immediate future (ECHO 09/03/2016).

90% of Swaziland’s sugar cash crop relies on irrigation, which has been significantly hampered by the rationing of water. Sugarcane harvests, which accounts for a 21% of Swaziland’s GDP, has been hit hard, and this is likely to impact government finances and possibly service delivery (UN 25/02/2016).

Low water storage in local dams and poor replenishment of groundwater sources, negatively affecting agricultural yields, pastures and vegetation cover growth (ECHO 09/03/2016).

Nutrition

Acute malnutrition rates have increased by 2.5 %from the average of 3 to 5.5 % (UN 25/02/2016). Chronic malnutrition is the main nutrition concern in Swaziland with stunting affecting 25,5% of children under five. Stunting is prevalence in the south and eastern parts of the country(FAO 29/02/2016).

Livelihoods

According to the government, more than 40,000 livestock have died due to lack of water and fodder the current summer season (November-March), seriously constraining coping mechanisms (ECHO 09/03/2016). Dead livestock’s close proximity to water increases the risk of the spread of diseases among livestocks and humans (ECHO 04/03/2016 UN 25/02/2016, FAO 29/02/2016).

WASH

As of 9 March, 320,000 people need WASH assistance. The government has instituted several days of water rationing per week for the first time in its history, with up to four days of continuous water rationing in some of its urban areas. The capital, Mbabane, has been most affected as the supplying dam (Hawane Dam) remains at 17%. The water shortages are negatively affecting hygiene, increasing the risks of disease (ECHO 09/03/2016).

As of the end of March, extremely limited water is stored in national reservoirs and very water availability is very low in all five major rivers. Domestic water supply in the rural areas of Lubombo and Shiselweni is of great concern as protected springs and boreholes are reported to be drying up, affecting communities, health facilities and schools (UNICEF 31/03/2016).

In schools, more than 197,000 students, teachers and workers are at risk of water-borne diseases and malnutrition, due to lack of water impacting WASH conditions in schools. This number is expected to increase to 258,000 people (UNICEF 31/03/2016). More than 23,000 student coming from Mbabane area have been affected by the reduction of water as schools, especially in urban areas, depend on flushing toilet systems. In rural areas also, existing boreholes are running dry. The water shortages are particularly affecting schooling in urban areas, with the opening of schools postponed from 19 to 25 January, affecting about 25,000 students (ECHO 09/03/2016 UN 25/02/2016).

Health

Swaziland has the highest prevalence of HIV infection among adults (26 % of people aged 15–49). Food insecurity affects HIV treatment intake as antiretroviral drugs are meant to be taken with food and water. It also affects access to medical facilities as some people are unable to make the journey to the facilities due to illness, weakness, or lack of finances (UN 25/02/2016).

Updated: 05/04/2016

Ukraine Country Analysis

Zimbabwe

Politics and security

Elections in July 2013 returned President Mugabe’s Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (Zanu-PF) party to government: Mugabe has been in office since 1980 (UNCT 03/10/2014). By-elections in June 2015 saw Zanu-PF consolidate its position, winning 76% of the National Assembly seats.  

However, with Mugabe’s term set to expire in 2018, fractures are beginning to emerge within the ruling party. The discontent of the internal faction supporting Vice President Mnangagwa is reportedly at a historical high, threatening stability. Violent clashes broke out in the capital between a group of war veterans who support Mnangagwa and the police on 18 February. Mnangagwa received death threats by a strong ally of the first lady at the beginning of February and, as the likelihood of the President trying to demote him grows, so does the risk of Mnangagwa making his move to take the lead (Zimbabwe Independent 26/02/2016; Zimbabwe Daily 18/02/2016; News24 18/02/2016; Zimbabwe Situation 11/02/2016). On 11 March, members of the political faction supporting Mnangagwa reportedly were suspended or expelled in an attempt to prevent a fracture in the ruling party (The Independent 11/03/2016).

Mugabe faces criticism for a growing number of political and economic decisions, and at 91, for being too old to rule (All Africa 21/09/2015). According to different sources, the President’s decision to declare a drought-related state of disaster in February came too late (VOA Zimbabwe 18/02/2016; New Zimbabwe 07/02/2016). Partisan distribution of food aid, harassment, intimidation and discrimination are reported to be on the rise, in particular in Mashonaland East and Mashonaland Central, as political discontent towards the President increases (Zimbabwe Peace Project 31/02/2016).

Economic crisis

Zimbabwe’s economic position has improved since the major crisis of 2008, but it remains vulnerable to shocks (UNCT 03/10/2014). The depreciation of the South African rand is having a negative effect on the Zimbabwean economy, with many sectors and shops refusing to accept the previously commonly used currency (All Africa 28/12/2015). Budget cuts and delayed disbursement of public funds is limiting service provision: health workers and teachers have threatened strikes over delayed payment of salaries in December (All Africa 29/12/2015; 30/12/2015).

Natural disasters

A strong El Niño episode was declared in March 2015 (FAO 22/12/2015). Insufficient rain has been recorded in Zimbabwe since October 2015 (NOAA 31/12/2015; FNSWG 11/2015). The drop in water levels has also affected the national hydro-power station of Kariba Dam, which, as of February, was running at a capacity of 285 megawatts, instead of the usual 750 (IPS News 22/03/2016).

As of 12 February, 95% of the country has recorded less than 75% of usual rainfall, and most of the country received around 50% of average rains, since October 2015. Binga, Lupane, Tsholotsho, Zaka, and Masvingo received the least rainfall (FEWSNET 05/02/2016; WFP 20/03/2016; NOAA 31/12/2015; FNSWG 11/2015; Government 12/02/2016). On 5 February, Zimbabwe’s President declared a “state of disaster” in many rural areas (BBC 05/02/2016). 

Displacement

As of May 2015, an estimated 36,000 Zimbabweans remained in protracted internal displacement following electoral violence in 2008 (IDMC 05/2015).

Food security and livelihoods

In February, around 2.8 million people were reported in need of food assistance by the Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee (ZimVAC) (WFP 16/03/2016). Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security is affecting many households: crop failure has caused limited food availability, high prices, and reduced labour.

Areas where poor households are receiving lean season assistance are expected to remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity up to May, due to lack of green harvest. Lean season assistance ends in April. Projections indicate that 1.7 million people will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity between June and September (FEWSNET 30/03/2016; FEWSNET 31/03/2016; WFP 23/03/2016).

Food availability

In 2016, Zimbabwe is projected to produce 200,000 metric tons of food, the smallest crop since 1961. The need for 2016-2017 is between 1.1 million and 2 million metric tons (The Zimbabwean 18/02/2016). In Mashonaland West province, Mashonaland region, many villagers are reportedly selling property, including land and cattle, in order to buy food for their families. Older people have reported that young people are taking a disproportionate amount of the drought relief (VOA Zimbabwe 04/04/2016). Some have accused local politicians of looting incoming food aid (VOA Zimbabwe 14/01/2016). Strict market controls limit import options (VoA 30/12/2015). Government imports have been insufficient. South Africa, the region’s biggest producer and exporter, reported a 22% decline in production in 2015 (OCHA 23/12/2015).

Fish stocks are reportedly declining as water levels in national reservoirs keep decreasing (Reuters 01/04/2016).

Food access

As of November 2015, national average maize grain prices were 32% higher than the previous year, and 19% higher than the five-year average (FNSWG 11/2015). White maize prices kept growing between November 2015 and February 2016, but then stabilized in the February-March period (FEWSNET 31/03/2016).

Livelihoods

Farmers face drought, high input costs, lack of funding, and a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak (All Africa 27/12/2015). Late onset of seasonal rains has delayed agricultural activities and reduced labour opportunities (FNSWG 11/2015). The government has reportedly advised the farmers most affected by the drought to sell some of their cattle before they die.

Foot-and-mouth disease has heavily affected Masvingo province, and southern parts of the country (The Zimbabwean 24/09/2015). As of 23 March, over 19,000 livestock have died (VOA Zimbabwe 02/02/2016; WFP 23/03/2016). In Masvingo over 5,000 cattle have died. Many villagers are reportedly selling cattle for as little as USD 30 in order to buy food (VOA Zimbabwe 14/01/2016). Cattle movements have been banned and quarantine zones established (Reuters 07/09/2015; All Africa 27/12/2015).

Households reliant on remittances from South Africa are worse off due to the volatile and depreciating rand (FNSWG 11/2015).

Health

Diarrhoea

Diarrhoea is one of the main communicable diseases in the country, and one of the main causes of death of children under five (UNRCO Zimbabwe 2015). As of the end of February, around 50,000 cases of diarrhoea and 30 deaths had been reported in 2016. Manicaland and Mashonaland West are the most affected areas (News24 29/02/2016). In 2015, as of May, around 200,000 cases were recorded, including 200 deaths (Outbreak News Today 03/06/2015).

HIV/AIDS

A severe shortage of HIV diagnosis equipment has been reported in Mkoba, a 150,000-inhabitant suburb of Gweru. HIV patients in the area are redirected to the General Hospital, or to private and expensive medical facilities (The Zimbabwean 20/01/2016).

Typhoid

Typhoid infections started occurring in Harare in the last week of January. An outbreak was declared on 8 March (VOA Zimbabwe 08/03/2016; Reuters 29/01/2016). As of 31 March, 55 cases were confirmed and more than 940 were being investigated. One person died on 18 February (UNICEF 31/03/2016 VOA Zimbabwe 18/02/2016). Lack of water is reportedly causing people to use water from unsafe sources, that increase the risk of the waterborne disease to spread. Authorities are concerned about the persistent increase in cases (The Standard 07/02/2016; VOA Zimbabwe 12/02/2016; 18/02/2016; Newsday 16/02/2016).

Nutrition

In Zimbabwe, SAM rates vary from 0.8% to 5.5% per province. In 2015, the national SAM average value spiked to 2.3%, compared to 1.5% of 2014. At 15 March, over 33,000 children were reportedly in need of immediate treatment for severe acute malnutrition (UNICEF 15/03/2016).

Global acute malnutrition in Zimbabwe is at 5.7%, the highest for the last 15 years (WFP 03/03/2016).

WASH

Zimbabwe’s National Water Authority has warned of water shortages for most catchment areas due to dry conditions (OCHA 22/11/2015). As of 25 March, the national water reservoirs have reportedly dropped below 50% (AFDB 25/03/2016).

Underlying vulnerability is high. 27% of the population does not have access to safe water (OCHA 22/11/2015). In rural areas, 60% of the rural water supply infrastructure is in disrepair (UNICEF 2013). 40% do not have access to improved sanitation facilities and practise open defecation (UNICEF 2013).

Education

Food insecurity is causing around 6,000 children to skip classes in Matebeleland North province because they need to help their families with house and farm work (Daily News 28/03/2016).

Protection

Main protection concerns regard the freedom of expression and thought with frequent violations of minorities’ rights, for example LGBT activists. The police often resort to violence (HRW 29/01/2015).

Children

On 20 January, the Constitutional Court of Zimbabwe outlawed child marriage (below the age of 18) (Zimbabwe Association of Doctors for Human Rights 20/01/2016).

Vulnerable groups

Disabled people reportedly face major challenges due to growing food insecurity and are resorting to negative coping mechanisms, including begging (VoA 03/10/2015).

Updated: 07/04/2016

Côte d'Ivoire Country Analysis

El Salvador

Politics and security

A negotiated truce between El Salvador’s largest gangs, Mara Salvatrucha 13 (MS 13) and Barrio 18, came to an end in 2014. Competition between the two gangs, and clashes between gangs and security forces have reached unprecedented levels of violence (08/02/2016). 6,657 people were killed in 2015, meaning a homicide rate of 104 per 100,000 residents (ECHO 15/02/2016; STRATFOR 09/02/2016).  More than half of the homicides occurred in the cities of San Salvador, La Libertad, Soyapango, and Usulutan (LA Times 02/03/2016). 1,399 people were killed in January and February 2016, more than double the number in the same period of 2015 (VICE News 03/03/2016). Gangs also access the political level via bribes and extortions, and often clash with police and military personnel (Reuters 25/01/2016; Evan Ellis 16/12/2015).

The government has pledged to take “extraordinary measures” to fight gang violence. These include deploying more troops to the streets, retaking neighbourhood territory from gangs and increasing prison control (Reuters 31/03/2016). As a first step, the government has declared a state of emergency at seven prisons, restricting gang members’ communication with the outside world (NY Times 29/03/2016). Previous mano dura (“firm hand” or “iron fist”) policies to deter gang violence have generally not improved the security situation (Security Assistance 29/02/2016).

Natural disasters

Drought

El Salvador is among the countries most severely affected by a prolonged dry spell, associated with the El Niño phenomenon (UN 12/11/2015). Households in the east are expected to be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security levels until May 2016, worsening to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security levels from June-September 2016 (FEWSNET 29/02/2016).

El Niño conditions are expected to last until August 2016 in the eastern ‘dry corridor’ regions (OCHA 09/03/2016). A slight rainfall deficit is expected in the first quarter of the rainy season (May–July) (government 29/02/2016). The harvests of the primera season in 2016 are in some places expected to be 50-100% below average (FAO 17/03/2016).

Displacement

There is limited information available on displacement in El Salvador, however it is known that gang violence drives some displacement: more than 324,000 people were displaced due to gang violence in El Salvador in 2015 (International Crisis Watch 21/12/2015). 17,000 children were displaced to Mexico in 2015, most of whom were reportedly from El Salvador. Only 52 of these children were granted asylum (Human Rights Watch 04/01/2016). Asylum claims in Mexico were 65% higher in 2015 compared to 2014. In Costa Rica, 2,203 asylum claims were registered in 2015, an increase of 16% to 2014. Most of the asylum seekers are El Salvadorian (UNHCR 05/04/2016).

Humanitarian access

Insecurity, in particular the presence of MS13 and Barrio 18 (El Salvador’s largest criminal groups), hampers the delivery of humanitarian assistance (WFP 30/06/2015). In San Salvador, health workers have to negotiate access to neighbourhoods with large gang presence (Washington Post 08/02/2016).

Food security and livelihoods

An estimated 156,000 people (39,000 households), mainly in eastern and western regions, are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes due to the prolonged dry spell (Redhum 16/11/2015; WFP 30/09/2015; FEWSNET 31/08/2015). People are expected to remain at Crisis levels until August (FEWSNET 29/02/2016). In total, 700,000 people are estimated to be in need of food assistance. The number is likely to increase until the beginning of the August harvest, especially in the eastern ‘dry corridor’ (OCHA 09/03/2016; 31/12/2015). Farmers in the dry corridor lost almost 100% of the maize planted in  2015  (WFP 31/12/2015).

Food availability

The Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock estimates that almost 86,000 hectares of maize have been lost or damaged. In 2015, 60% of the maize crop was destroyed, affecting over 161,000 farmers (FAO 15/03/2016). Total grain losses were 30% higher in 2015 than in 2014 (OCHA 12/2015). The availability of seeds will be significantly reduced in the postrera (August-January) season, due to the primera season losses (FAO 14/09/2015).

Livelihoods

Approximately 100,000 agricultural and livestock producers have been affected by the drought. 24 communities in the San Miguel department have been particularly affected (IFRC 25/11/2015).

The coffee rust epidemic (a fungus that attacks the leaves of coffee plants) means that day labourers can no longer depend on seasonal labour opportunities in coffee production (Reuters 14/08/2015). The livelihoods of small-scale coffee growers have also been affected (OCHA 12/2015). Coffee production is estimated to have dropped 35-40% from 2014 to 2015, due to a combination of coffee rust and drought (Diario El Mundo, 26/09/2015). El Salvador reportedly remains heavily affected by the epidemic (OCHA 09/03/2016).

More than 50% of affected households are resorting to negative coping mechanisms, including selling productive assets, reducing number and portion sizes of meals, and spending their savings (WFP 26/09/2015).

Health

Dengue

As of 11 March, 43 cases have been confirmed, and over 2,500 suspected cases have been detected (PAHO 11/03/2016).

Zika

On 10 March the government issued a national yellow alert regarding Aedes Aegypti mosquito, which transfers the Zika virus (government 10/03/2016). As of 31 March around 9,600 suspected cases of Zika have been reported, the highest number in San Salvador and La Libertad  (WHO 31/03/2016; Pacific Disaster Center 09/03/2016).There is an increasing number of cases of the auto-immune disease Guillian-Barré among those affected by Zika virus: as of March, 138 cases of Guillian-Barré and two deaths have already been reported (Outbreak News 08/03/2016; BBC 01/02/2016). The average number of Guillian-Barré cases per year is 169 (WHO 05/02/2016). Guillian-Barré is a rare syndrome that attacks the peripheral nervous system. A causal link with Zika is yet to be confirmed.

WASH

The effects of El Niño are forecast to continue until June 2016, reducing access to clean water (IFRC 25/11/2015).

In Sonsonate department, the southwest, water shortages have been reported in high elevation communities. People collect rainwater to increase water access and women have to travel more than 40km to wash clothes (PAHO 25/02/2016).

Education

Schooling is regularly disrupted as there are threats from criminal gangs operating along the school route, causing children to miss classes (The Guardian 27/01/2016).

Protection

There are reports that a high number of women and children are fleeing their homes and migrating through Mexico to the United States due to the rise in gang violence. Other countries in Central America have also seen an increase in asylum claims over 2015. Women and children are exposed to forced recruitment into criminal gangs, sexual- and gender-based violence, and murder (UNHCR 15/03/2016).

Even though crime is widespread through gangs, civilians also face violence by authorities. In 2015, 74% of all alleged human rights violations submitted to the attorney general’s office involved cops or soldiers (Huffington Post 03/03/2016).

Children

Gangs increasingly target the young, with children as young as 12 years old enlisted in their ranks. Boys serve as foot soldiers, while young girls sometimes are used as sex slaves (Wall Street Journal 24/02/2016). Homicide is the leading cause of death among adolescent (0-19) boys (UNHCR 15/03/2016).

Gender

‘Femicide’ – the act of killing women – has become widespread. Between January and October 2015, 475 women were murdered, an increase from 294 over the same period in 2014 (Latin Correspondent 25/02/2016; UNHCR 15/03/2016). Gang rape is used as a weapon against women (Latin America Working Group 18/02/2016).

Updated: 06/04/2016

Fiji

Politics and security

Multiple military coups, in 1987, 2000, and 2006, have interrupted Fijian politics since the country gained independence in 1987. Stability has improved since democratic elections were held on 17 September 2014, which brought Frank Bainimarama’s Fiji First party to power with a parliamentary majority (DFAT 2016). Tensions resurfaced in early February, when opposition MPs walked out of parliament in protest at the suspension of three opposition MPs (ICG 01/03/2016).

Natural disasters

Tropical cyclone

Fiji faces an elevated risk of tropical cyclones this season, in part due to the consequences of the strong 2015-2016 El Niño event (OCHA 08/01/2016; WMO 22/02/2016). On 20 February 2016, Tropical Cyclone Winston – the strongest cyclone on record in the Pacific – made landfall, killing 44 people and destroying infrastructure. 32,000 houses were either damaged or destroyed and approximately 720,000 people are without regular electricity supply (AFP 23/02/2016; OCHA 29/02/2016; ABCE 21/03/2016; International Planned Parenthood Federation 21/03/2016).  On 21 February, the Fijian Government declared a 30-day state of natural disaster, which was extended for another 30 days on 21 March, to last until 19 April (OCHA 21/02/2016; ABC 21/03/2016).

Over 350,000 people, 40% of the country’s population, have been affected (IFRC 31/03/2016). Damage is estimated at USD 460 million (Radio NZ 25/01/2016). Immediate needs are for shelter, health, and WASH assistance (IFCR 29/02/2016). The government has listed 12 priority response areas (UNICEF 26/02/2016). Satellite imagery has confirmed worst-affected areas include parts of the two main islands (northeast Viti Levu and the south coast of Vanua Levu) as well as smaller islands (Northern Lau Group, Taveuni, Koro Island, Ovalau, and Naigani). As of 23 March, debris is still reported to be a major issue in the island of Koro (Radio NZ 23/03/2016).

Tropical disturbances and flooding

Two tropical disturbances hit Fiji on 4 April, causing flooding in low-lying areas (OCHA 04/04/2016). Over 1,000 people are sheltering in 68 evacuation centres in western and central divisions (IFRC 05/04/2016). Some of the evacuation centres remain damaged from TC Winston, including in Tavua.  There are fears the flooding will exacerbate the risk of disease, including typhoid. The flooding has damaged sugarcane crops on Vitu Levu, the main island (RadioNZ 05/04/2016).  

Drought

67,000 people affected by drought in Fiji’s western, northern and eastern divisions are reliant on water trucking and food deliveries (OCHA 08/01/2016). Hot and dry conditions have had an impact on crops and agriculture throughout 2015, and a drought warning has been in force since October (OCHA 29/10/2015).

Displacement

337 people remain in 26 evacuation centres in the eastern division (OCHA 31/03/2016; WFP 17/03/2016). 60,000 people were initially displaced, and 100,000 are living in houses that were severely damaged. Many of the displaced are staying with relatives or in non-official displacement sites (IFRC 31/03/2016; UNICEF 26/02/2016). Returns are ongoing, but little is known about reasons for and modalities of return (OCHA 07/03/2016; OCHA 15/03/2016).

Humanitarian access

Damage to telecommunications networks, roads, bridges, and air and port facilities has impeded assessments and emergency relief efforts, particularly to remote and outer islands (UNICEF 29/02/2016).

All roads have reopened on the two main islands and are accessible at least with 4WD vehicles. All airports are open although congestion has become an issue. A small number of bridges and jetties need repair, particularly in Taveuni (Logistics Cluster 15/03/2016).

Multiple remote islands, where some 40,000 affected people are estimated to live, are only accessible by boat (ABC 23/02/2016; OCHA 29/02/2016). It could take months to restore basic water, power and sewerage to the worst affected areas, particularly outer islands (Government 25/02/2016; UNICEF 29/02/2016).

Food security and livelihoods

164,000 people are estimated to need food assistance (OCHA 07/03/2016). Reports of widespread crop damage in rural areas affected by TC Winston are concerning and are likely to compound ongoing drought-related vulnerabilities (OCHA 22/02/2016). Emergency food assistance may be required through at least May 2016 (OCHA 31/03/2016).

Food availability

100% of crops are estimated to be destroyed in the worst-affected areas, including Koro Island (OCHA 04/03/2016; FAO 04/03/2016). Cash crops, including Yagona, cassava, and taro have been hit hard (OCHA 15/03/2016). Around 80% of sugarcane crops have been damaged (Radio NZ 25/02/2016). In October, 25% of the sugar cane harvest was estimated to have been lost due to drought (OCHA 22/10/2015).

Food access

Prices have increased significantly (OCHA 29/02/2016). Food distributions are underway and have reached 95% of the population, but not hard-to-reach mountainous, inland areas (OCHA 15/03/2016).

Livelihoods

Around 45,000 farmers are reportedly in need of agricultural support, including debris clearing and provision of seeds (OCHA 22/02/2016; 15/03/2016; 17/03/2016).

Short-term coping strategies are being used, such as the quick sale of stock at reduced prices, which could add to long-term vulnerabilities. The drought and cyclone have heavily impacted women, who are mostly engaged in the informal agricultural sector (UN Women 29/02/2016).

Livestock face outbreak risks (OCHA 07/03/2016). 21% of livestock on Koro Island are dead (OCHA 04/03/2016).

Fisheries have been impacted, with equipment, boats, and repair kits urgently needed to restore livelihoods (OCHA 15/03/2016; FAO 04/03/2016).

Declining tourist numbers are expected to have a significant impact on livelihoods (OCHA 28/02/2016).

Health

44 people have died and 122 injured (WHO 26/02/2016). Some 5,600 pregnant women are affected by the cyclone (OCHA 15/03/2016).

38% of health facilities were damaged. Although all have resumed some services following repairs, gaps in health services continue to impact hard-to-reach affected areas (OCHA 31/03/2016; 15/03/2016; UNFPA 08/03/2016). Reports indicate an increase in cases of communicable diseases including measles, diarrhoea, and leptospirosis, a bacterial infection transmitted by rodents and other animals through urine-contaminated water or soil (OCHA 28/03/2016). 37 typhoid cases have been confirmed since the cyclone (OCHA 31/03/2016).

Nutrition

Malnourished children are particularly vulnerable due to limited access to food and nutrition supplements (OCHA 28/02/2016). 15 cases of malnutrition have been reported, including three severe cases in Tauvua and Korovou (OCHA 15/03/2016).

WASH

It is estimated that up to 100,000 people are still without access to safe water sources, while 193,000 are still in need of WASH supplies  (OCHA 31/03/2016). WHO has warned that disruption of water and sanitation infrastructure, compromised hygiene, and overcrowding could lead to outbreaks, particularly of diarrhoeal disease (OCHA 07/03/2016; WHO 26/02/2016). Up to 300 schools may require WASH assistance (UNICEF 26/02/2016).

Water

Most of the 67,000 drought-affected people reliant on water trucking since mid-2015 live in the areas worst affected by the cyclone, which means their needs are exacerbated (OCHA 29/02/2016).

Sanitation

Reports of open defecation highlight an urgent need for sanitation assistance (OCHA 31/03/2016).

187 school toilet blocks have been damaged (UNICEF 29/02/2016).

Hygiene

Displaced families in evacuation centres lack basic hygiene materials (UNICEF 26/02/2016). WASH needs are particularly acute among women and girls, who lack sanitary products (OCHA 29/02/2016).

Shelter and NFIs

Overall, 150,000 people are in need of shelter assistance. According to the latest figures, at least 32,000 houses have been affected, including at least 11,000 completely destroyed (OCHA 15/03/2016; 28/03/2016; ABC 21/03/2016). 63% of housing damage is in western division where, as of 31 March, 28,300 temporary shelters are still needed (OCHA 07/03/2016; Radio NZ 31/03/2016).

Significant gaps remain in shelter programming to help support self-recovery: only 500 of 7,500 targeted households have received hardware and fixing kits (OCHA 31/03/2016).

Education

As of 15 March, approximately 500 schools and 380 early learning centres have been damaged or destroyed – more than double previous estimates (OCHA 15/03/2016). 

86,000 school children have had their education disrupted (OCHA 31/03/2016). Around 100 of the most badly damaged schools will remain closed for repair for up to six weeks (IFRC 29/02/2016). 85% of primary and secondary schools have reopened after being closed for one week, despite significant damage to facilities (UNICEF 29/02/2016). There is a need for temporary learning spaces to avoid further interruptions to schooling (UNICEF 26/02/2016).

Protection

Tensions are reportedly growing between host communities and remaining evacuees (OCHA 07/03/2016). A strategy is needed to ensure the protection of displaced persons both in crowded evacuation centres, as well as after the centres close (OCHA 29/02/2016).  There are heightened protection concerns for women, children and disabled people, and enhanced tracking of their needs is required (OCHA 07/03/2016).

Children: UNICEF estimates that up to 120,000 children may be badly affected (UNICEF 26/02/2016). Children may require psychosocial support (STC 25/02/2016).

Updated 05/04/2016

Guatemala

Politics and security

Guatemala was on the brink of a political crisis in August 2015 when street demonstrations pushed the cabinet ministers and the president to resign due to allegations of corruption (VOA 25/08/2015; BBC 16/09/2015). Jimmy Morales was elected as the new president at polls in October, but the political instability continues, reportedly because of his lack of political experience. He was also blamed for poor management of government funding to provide medicine to the health facilities experiencing shortages (BBC 26/10/2015; OCHA 14/01/2016; Foreign Policy 16/03/2016).

Guatemala has one of the highest violent crime rates in the world, caused by widespread drug-trafficking, gang-related violence and a heavily armed population. Some communities have resorted to vigilantism due to the lack of criminal law enforcement. Gang-related violence is one of the principal reasons why people leave the country. In 2015, violence has intensified in Escuintla, Santa Rosa, Jutiapa, Chiquimila, Zacapa, Izabal and Peten departments. Kidnapping gangs, often connected to drug traffickers, are a concern (OSAC 14/05/2014; Human Rights Watch 31/01/2016; Humanitarian Team in Guatemala 31/12/2015). In the week up to 14 March, an increase in gang attacks on businesses was reported in Guatemala City’s zone 6. The attacks are probably linked to extortion (Prensa Libre 14/03/2016).

Natural disasters

Drought

The El Niño phenomenon is causing severe drought in Central America’s “dry corridor”, which runs through Guatemala. Guatemala is reportedly most affected by the regional drought, followed by Honduras and El Salvador (OCHA 14/01/2016). As of February, 1.3 million people have been affected in Guatemala (ECHO 18/02/2016). The dry spell is expected to continue through March 2016, drastically reducing harvests as staple crops are destroyed (FEWSNET 30/01/2016).

Guatemala declared a state of emergency on 1 October due to drought and food insecurity, and as of mid-March 2016 the crisis persists (Oxfam 01/10/2015; OCHA 09/03/2016). There were more consecutive days without rain in 2015 than in 2014 and less cumulative rainfall (FEWSNET 08/2015).

Volcano activity

The 3.7km Fuego volcano (near Guatemala City) spewed ash plumes up to around 4,400m above sea level on 2 March. Authorities issued a warning (Government 10/03/2016).

Since 2 April, the Santa Maria volcano, also known as Santiaguito, is reportedly in a new eruptive phase with moderate explosions and columns of ash reaching around 4km above sea level. The volcano is in the department of Quetzaltenango (Government 04/04/2016).

Humanitarian access

Security constraints caused by gang-related violence and drug trafficking must be taken into account, with no areas, especially in the capital, considered immune to daytime episodes of crime and violence (OSAC 2015).

Food security and livelihoods

720,000 people are severely food insecure, as drought has led to a third consecutive year of decreased harvest (ECHO 18/02/2016). Households in Crisis are in Huehuetenango, Quiche, Chimaltenango, Totonicapan, Sacatepequez, and Quetzaltenango departments. Households in the east are currently facing Stressed conditions (IPC Phase 2) (FEWSNET 01/2016). External food assistance will be needed until the next harvest in August 2016, by when an estimated 1–2.5 million people will be in Crisis (FEWSNET 24/01/2015; 30/01/2016).

Livelihoods

Cereal production in 2015 is estimated at 1.8 million metric tons, a 5% decrease compared to 2014, that was already a poorer year (FAO 30/12/2015). Around 175,000 families have reported between 50% and 100% losses for maize and beans in the Dry Corridor (FAO 26/01/2016). 70% of the families in the country have lost their harvest (Red Cross 04/11/2015). Coffee rust is negatively impacting labour opportunities, particularly on smaller farms (FEWSNET 30/01/2016).

Food availability

National grain production fell by 4.5% in 2015 compared to 2014 (Redhum 04/01/2016). By April 2016, 65% of families will have exhausted their reserves and the remaining 35% will have only limited food reserves (OCHA 09/03/2016; Red Cross 05/02/2016; FEWSNET 30/12/2015). Hundreds of farmers are in need of fertiliser in Chiquimula to save their maize and beans harvest (Redhum 02/02/2016).

Households in the mountains in the west are threatened by severe food insecurity: drought led to losses of the total 2015 staple production and they have scarce job opportunities and low incomes. They purchase food with money earned in limited agricultural and non-agricultural labour opportunities (FEWSNET 30/12/2015; 30/01/2016).

Food access

Maize prices rose by 16.8% between November and December 2015 due to decreased maize supply from the drought-affected northern and southern regions. The price of beans increased by 3.5% in the same period (FAO 10/01/2016).

Nutrition

100,000 people are in need of nutrition support (OCHA 14/01/2016).

In 2016, as of 5 March, 1,447 cases of acute malnutrition were recorded in Guatemala, with deaths reported in Huehuetenango, Chiquimula, Santa Rosa, Jalapa, Guatemala, Nororiente, Alta Verapaz, and Zacapa. 14,657 cases of acute malnutrition were recorded in 2015. 69% (10,113) were cases of moderate acute malnutrition (MAM), while 31% (4,544) were cases of severe acute malnutrition. Last year, 183 children died of malnutrition-related causes. The departments reporting the highest numbers of deaths were Alta Verapaz (23), Huehuetenango (21), San Marcos (21), Escuintla (20), and Quiché (11) (Red Hum 21/03/2016).  Severe acute malnutrition in children under five is between 3.3% and 5.7% countrywide (Redhum 10/11/2015; OCHA 07/12/2015).

Health

1.5 million people are in need of health services (OCHA 14/01/2016). Some 4 million people in rural areas do not have access to primary healthcare and hundreds of thousands of children have not received essential vaccinations (OCHA 30/12/2015). Mosquito-transmitted diseases are a major preoccupation: dengue fever and chikungunya cases are reported across the country. As of 19 March, 770 suspected cases of Zika virus were reported since November 2015: 225 in Quetzaltenango, 124 in Zacapa, 79 in Santa Rosa, and 58 in Chiquimula. 260 were confirmed. (WHO 29/02/2016; OCHA, WHO and PAHO 04/04/2016).  

15,900 cases of dengue fever, including nine deaths, were reported in 2015. This is an increase on 12,533 cases recorded in 2014, probably due to El Niño-related causes increasing the presence of vectors (Redhum 09/11/2015; 10/12/2015; WHO 21/01/2016). The same for the 27,600 cases of chikungunya recorded in 2015, representing a 20% increase in cases compared to 2014 (Redhum 10/12/2015).

Reviewed: 07/04/2016

Jordan

Madagascar

Mozambique

Politics and Security

Renamo (Mozambique National Resistance) refused to accept the results of the 2014 presidential and legislative elections, which Frelimo (the Mozambique Liberation Front) won, and tensions have been mounting since then – the parties fought a bitter civil war between 1977 and 1992.

In October 2015, the national army began military operations against Renamo in Tete, which is a support base for Frelimo. The operations were prompted by late August’s breakdown in peace talks between the government and Renamo, and a number of violent incidents (IBT 01/03/2016; ECHO 10/02/2016; ICG 2016; The Africa Report 30/08/2013). On 20 January, Renamo’s Secretary General was wounded in an attack, and his bodyguard killed. In early February, Renamo rejected peace talks with the President, arguing that their leaders’ safety could not be guaranteed (ISS 19/02/2016).

Armed clashes have been reported in Sofala province, leaving several people dead and injured, since February (ISS 19/02/2016; All Africa 26/02/2016). Attacks on buses have been reported in central Mozambique (ICG 01/04/2016). On 15 February, Renamo shot dead Frelimo’s secretary in Sofala (All Africa 26/02/2016).

Frelimo and Renamo are accusing each other of amassing troops and arms in central Mozambique (Zitamar News 24/03/2016). On 29 March, Renamo opened fire on the Manica provincial government convoy (All Africa 29/03/2016). As of mid-March, fighting is reported in Zambezia province, where Renamo has established a major base; in Gorongosa (Sofala province); Zobue (Tete province); and in Barue district (Manica province) (IB Times 16/03/2016). The governor of Sofala accused Renamo of torturing and killing community leaders in Chibabava district (All Africa 24/03/2016). Renamo is targeting traditional chiefs and community leaders, in an attempt to weaken authorities in the provinces (IB Times 01/03/2016).

Stakeholders

Mozambique National Resistance (Renamo) is Mozambique’s main opposition party. Renamo disputes the results of 2014 elections in Manica, Sofala, Tete, Zambezia, Nampula and Niassa provinces, which gave control to Frelimo, and plans to force the takeover of the local administrations. Renamo has an armed wing, which consist of several hundred fighters (ISS 19/02/2016; IHS 04/05/2015).

Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo) initiated Mozambican independence from Portugal and has been the governing party since 1975. National armed forces are loyal to Frelimo.

Displacement

Mozambique hosts 15,940 refugees and asylum-seekers, the majority of whom originate from Burundi, DRC, Rwanda and Somalia. Of these, 8,475 live in Maratane camp, the country's only refugee camp (UNHCR 16/06/2015).

Over 11,000 Mozambicans have fled to Malawi since mid-December 2015 due to clashes between Renamo and Frelimo (UNHCR 15/03/2016).

Food Security

The government has declared an orange alert, which is one level below the highest state of disaster, due to drought in central and southern Mozambique (FEWSNET 29/03/2016). As a result of drought in southern provinces, and torrential rains in the north of Zambezia in January, 600,000 people are severely food insecure (IPC Phase 3) and need immediate food assistance and another 600,000 are thought to be moderately food insecure (IPC Phase 2) (FEWSNET 03/03/2016; 18/03/2016). Worst affected provinces are Maputo, Gaza, Inhambane, Tete and Sofala (UN 03/03/2016). Up to 1.8 million people are expected to be food insecure by the end of March (OCHA 09/03/2016).

Maize production is expected to fall in 2016 compared to the below-average 2015 harvest (FAO 09/03/2016). Over 35% of cultivated areas in the south are now completely dry and will not produce any harvest until the next rainy season in March 2017. Over 30% of cattle are at risk of dying due to drought (OCHA 09/03/2016). Over 3,800 livestock have died in the 2015/2016 agricultural season due to drought and water scarcity (FEWSNET 29/03/2016).

Food prices are 40% higher than the five-year average and 50% higher than last year (OCHA 09/03/2016; FEWSNET 18/03/2016). The price of maize is 120% above the five-year average (FEWSNET 30/03/2016).

Nutrition

As of March, 18,700 children are acutely malnourished in Gaza and Inhambane provinces (OCHA 09/03/2016).

WASH

47% of the population have access to improved sources of water, and only 19% to improved sanitation (Global Alliance for Clean Cook Stoves 2016). 167,000 people are in need of safe drinking water, mostly in Gaza and Inhambane provinces, as water sources have dried up (OCHA 09/03/2016). In many communities in Gurue district, river water is used for drinking, hygiene, and cooking. The practice of open defecation by the riverbank is common, leading to waterborne diseases (UNICEF 23/02/2016).

In the south, the river basins are recording lower water levels compared to last year, and to the 1997–1998 El Niño. The most concerned dams are Corrumana (at 22% of storage capacity) and Massingir (at 50% of storage capacity). Both supply water for irrigation. It is expected that the Corrumana dam will not be able to supply water in April–September 2016, during which the second planting season falls (UN 03/03/2016).

Protection

Summary executions, sexual abuse, and ill-treatment of civilians are allegedly committed by the Mozambican armed forces in Tete province (HRW 22/02/2016; IBT 07/03/2016).

Updated: 06/04/2016

Myanmar Country Analysis

Politics and security

After 60 years of a military junta, Myanmar’s first election in 25 years took place on 8 November 2015 (Myanmar Times 09/11/2015). Despite 25% of parliamentary seats being reserved for the military, the National League for Democracy (NLD), headed by Aung San Suu Kyi, won over 79% of the available seats (Irrawaddy 29/02/2016). Htin Kyaw, a close confidant of San Suu Kyi, took office as President on 30 March (Reuters 15/03/2016; Myanmar Times 30/03/2016). San Suu Kyi will take up two ministerial posts (Irrawaddy 04/04/2016). The new cabinet took office on 1 April. The upper house is attempting to create the position of ‘state counsellor’ for San Suu Kyi, so she can exert influence over the President. This proposition has faced fierce protest by the military (Reuters 01/04/2016; Myanmar Times 05/04/2016). In Rakhine, the Arakan National Party walked out of parliament, when the NLD appointed its own party member, over members of the ANP (Myanmar Times 29/03/2016). The ANP, a party representing the Rakhine minority, won the majority of votes in Rakhine state (Myanmar Times 16/11/2015).

Conflict between numerous non-state armed actors representing ethnic groups and the Myanmar Army has been ongoing for 60 years. On 15 October 2015, a National Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) was signed by eight of the 18 ethnic armed armies in Myanmar. Three prominent groups frequently in conflict with the government, including the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), Arakhan Army (AA), and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), were excluded from negotiations. Seven armed ethnic groups that are not party to the NCA have called for talks with the NLD government (Myanmar Times 29/03/2016; 30/03/2016).

Conflict developments

The security situation remains tense in parts of Myanmar. 71% of all fatalities in 2015 occurred in Shan state, and Kachin reported the second-highest proportion, with 10% fatalities (ACLED 09/12/2015). In February 2016, fighting in Shan state picked up again. Sporadic incidents are also reported in Rakhine state.

Rakhine: The Arakan Army (AA) reportedly killed 30 people in an ambush on the Myanmar Army near Bathidaung township on 3 March (Irrawaddy 04/03/2016; ICG 01/04/2016).

Shan: On 7 February, fighting between the TNLA and the SSA-S in northern Shan state intensified around Kyaukme and Namkham townships, causing displacement. The fighting had reportedly subsided as of 19 February (Myanmar Times 22/02/2016). The SSA-S is a signatory to the ceasefire agreement, while the TNLA has not signed. The TNLA has accused the Myanmar Army of cooperating with the SSA-S (OCHA 17/02/2016; Myanmar Times 16/02/2016; 15/02/2016; Irrawaddy 15/02/2016).

The TNLA and Myanmar Army clashed in Namhsan township in late February (Myanmar Times 26/02/2016; Irrawaddy 29/02/2016). The Myanmar Army reportedly launched an offensive in March. In the first week of March, the TNLA reported at least 16 clashes, leading to the displacement of a further 300 people (OCHA 07/03/2016; Irrawaddy 07/03/2016). In Kutkai township, fighting between the Myanmar Army and TNLA has reportedly displaced 1,300 people since 4 March (Myanmar Times 11/03/2016; 16/03/2016).

Kachin: Clashes broke out between the KIA and the Myanmar Army in the southern Mansi township (Kachin News 03/04/2016). While the two actors clash frequently in Shan state, clashes in Kachin are not as common.

Displacement

662,400 people are estimated to be in displacement nationwide, primarily due to conflict. Over 240,000 people live in protracted displacement, mainly Rohingya in Rakhine and IDPs in Shan and Kachin. As of end 2015, some 15,000 people remained displaced due to conflict or natural disaster in the same year. In 2016, around 7,000 have been displaced in Rakhine and northern Shan.

IDPs

Rakhine: Around 120,000 people, mainly Rohingya Muslims, are in protracted displacement in Rakhine, of which 100,000 were displaced in 2012 during ethnically motivated violence (OCHA 29/02/2016). IDPs are spread over 42 locations in ten townships, after the government closed 25 camps in March (USAID 25/03/2016). Some 25,000 IDPs have voluntarily returned to their communities (ICG 01/04/2016). Around 95,000 live in IDP camps in Sittwe and over 13,000 in Pauktaw (USAID 25/03/2016; CCCM Cluster 01/03/2016).

More than 300 people fled from villages in Rakhine state during fighting between AA and Myanmar Army from 28 December to 4 January. They face water shortages (Democratic Voice of Burma 10/03/2016). Authorities have ordered the IDPs to leave the Buddhist monasteries in Ywarmapyin they have been sheltering in (03/02/2016).

Shan and Kachin: Around 110,000 people are displaced in northern Shan and Kachin states.

Clashes that erupted in early February in northern Shan state reportedly originally displaced over 6,700 people (OCHA 29/02/2016; 16/03/2016; Myanmar Times 18/02/2016). As of 16 March, over 3,200 people remain displaced (OCHA 16/03/2016). 800 IDPs are in Kyaukme Township (OCHA 16/03/2016). The IDPs are spread over at least 18 sites, most of them Buddhist monasteries (Myanmar Times 19/02/2016). Over 1,100 people remain displaced in Namkham township and are mainly located in Mong Wee village (OCHA 16/03/2016). Fighting between the Myanmar Army and TNLA displaced over 1,300 people in Kutkai township. IDPs are staying in Nam Hpet Kar and Mong Yu Lay villages (Myanmar Times 16/03/2016; OCHA 16/03/2016). Locals are providing food to IDPs, who need food assistance (Irrawaddy 11/03/2016; local media 14/03/2016). The tracking of the exact number of displaced people is difficult, as the situation remains fluid and secondary displacement is likely (Myanmar Times 16/03/2016; OCHA 16/03/2016). The last conflict incident was recorded on 28 March (Myanmar Times 31/03/2016).

As of December 2015, 4,000 people remained displaced in Kachin and northern Shan due to conflict over the course of the same year (OCHA 31/01/2015). 1,500 people are staying in Hai Pa site, in Mong Hsu township, central Shan (Mizzima 05/02/2016). Another 2,000 remained displaced in southern Shan as of December 2015, due to fighting in October (OCHA 31/01/2016).They are reportedly in need of shelter, NFIs, WASH, health and food assistance. Movements are fluid, with some people experiencing secondary displacement. The continued presence of armed actors and mines are cited as the main factors preventing return of IDPs (OCHA 31/01/2016).

Around 100,000 people are in protracted displacement in Shan and Kachin states due to fighting. 40,000 live in sites/settlements of less than 1,000 IDPs. In southern Shan, IDPs are spread over at least 4 sites (TBC 29/02/2016). In Kachin, it is estimated that around 8% of the IDPs in camps are over 60 years old and 34% are under 18 years (OCHA 30/11/2015; 14/01/2016). IDPs are said to be in need of shelter, access to livelihoods, and protection, especially women (Myanmar Times 23/03/2016).

Chin and Sagaing: Over 9,000 people remain displaced in 26 camps after flooding in July (UNHCR 14/12/2015; OCHA, 31/12/2015). Over 5,200 people are still in temporary camps in Hakha, Tonzang and Tedim townships. Shelter and sanitation conditions are of concern (OCHA 31/12/2015; Red Cross 27/11/2015). As of February, the government had built new homes to shelter some IDPs (Government 13/02/2016).

Southeastern states: Over 400,000 people are in protracted displacement in southeast Myanmar. Some have been displaced since 1993, but numbers have not grown since 2012 (TBC 30/11/2014; 31/10/2012). The IDPs live in 36 townships in Bago and Tanintharyi regions, and Kayin, Kayah, Mon, and southern and eastern Shan states. Kayin has over 89,000 IDPs, Tanintharyi over 71,000, Mon around 35,000, and Kayah around 34,600 (UNHCR 15/06/2013). The IDPs are provided with assistance through a durable solutions framework (USAID 25/03/2016).

Myanmar refugees in neighbouring countries

According to UNHCR, as of late March, over 415,000 refugees originate from Myanmar (AFP 30/11/2014). Over 5,500 people have arrived in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand in 2015 (IOM 31/01/2016). Around 1,300 of these arrivals remain in detention centres (IOM 29/02/2016). No departures of Rohingya boat refugees have been reported since September 2015 (IOM 31/01/2016). This is reportedly due to the crackdown on smugglers, but also fears among the Rohingya of taking the journey (UNHCR 23/02/2016).

Bangladesh: An estimated 30,000 Rohingya refugees live in official camps and receive assistance from aid agencies (local media 09/11/2014). An additional 300,000–500,000 Rohingya reside either in unofficial camps or villages. Most Rohingya are denied refugee status (UNHCR 12/06/2015; AFP 06/06/2015; AFP 29/05/2015).

Malaysia: 40,700 Rohingya registered with the UN were in Malaysia at end December 2014. Rohingya activists say a roughly equal number are unregistered. Rohingya migrants are frequently kept in smugglers’ camps along the border, where they are held for ransom, tortured, and raped (AFP 30/11/2014; international media 30/12/2015; Reuters 01/06/2015).

Thailand:  Over 104,000 refugees are in Thailand. They are located in at least nine camps along the border with Myanmar (TBC 29/02/2016). Rohingya in Thailand are subject to human trafficking (international media, 01/06/2015; 02/06/2015). Returnees from Mae Ra Ma Luang camp state that conditions in the camp have become unbearable, due to lack of education opportunities and shortages of resources (Democratic Voice of Burma 29/03/2016).

China: 4,000 refugees from Myanmar remain displaced due to fighting in Kokang during February–June 2015 (OCHA 31/12/2015). Local groups estimate the number of refugees to be as high as 27,000, scattered around Nanzan town. Refugees remain in need of assistance, yet international humanitarian actors cannot access the area (IRIN 16/03/2016).

Humanitarian access

In highland areas, access is restricted by difficult terrain and poor infrastructure, and further limited during the monsoon season (May–October). Frequent conflict, predominately in Kachin and Shan states, prevents access to over 100,000 IDPs and people in host communities in need (OCHA 30/11/2015).

Access of relief actors to affected populations

Some reports suggest armed groups are actively denying access to humanitarian groups (Irrawaddy 21/08/2015; 20/07/2015). In Kachin, around 2,800 people, including 1,000 IDPs, have been without humanitarian access since September 2015 (OCHA 31/12/2015). In Sumprabum township, where 1,200 IDPs reside, access is restricted due to insecurity. The government has not allowed humanitarian actors to reach the population via safer waterways (WFP 31/12/2015).

Access of affected populations to assistance

There has been little to no cross-line humanitarian assistance to non-government-controlled areas in Kachin. Around 50,000 IDPs have irregular humanitarian access (OCHA 31/12/2015).

Security and physical constraints

Shan state: As of 7 February, fighting in northern Shan state, and in particular in Kyaukme and Kutkai townships, has escalated, restricting movement of population and therefore reducing humanitarian access (Irrawaddy 15/02/2016; Myanmar Times 16/03/2016).

Food security and livelihoods

Over 840,000 people are in need of food assistance (FAO 19/01/2016). This includes 381,800 people who are food insecure due to conflict, and 460,000 people affected by July–August flooding, who are expected to remain in need until mid-2016 when harvests will ease food insecurity. Chin and Rakhine states are expected to face most severe food shortages due to the flooding, as the population was highly vulnerable prior to the flooding, and had low agricultural productivity and little resilience (FAO 16/03/2016). 

Food availability

At least 229,280 hectares of farmland are believed damaged or destroyed by the July–August flooding. Most negatively affected agricultural land is in the north and west. In total, 89% of crops were damaged. The 2015 national crop production of paddy after the flooding however, was only 4% lower than the production of 2014 (WFP 23/03/2016). However, in Kachin and Chin states, paddy rice production is expected to fall by up to 16% (FAO 09/03/2016; FAO 16/03/2016).

High temperatures caused by El Niño might delay the summer paddy harvest (Jun-Oct) if water shortages become more widespread. This can lead to rice shortages and an increase in rice prices (Irrawaddy 17/02/2016).

Recent IDPs in northern Shan risk missing the harvesting season due to continued fighting, increasing the need for food (WFP 23/03/2016).

Food access

Local rice prices continued to rise, and were nearly 40% higher in February 2016 than the previous year. The rise can partly be attributed to the expectation of low harvests after the July-August flooding (FAO 10/03/2016; 09/03/2016).

Livelihoods

An estimated 240,000 head of livestock were lost in the flooding. 223,000 of those were poultry, leading some to speculate that female-headed households have been more significantly impacted as they are more reliant on poultry for their livelihoods. Ayeryawaddy, Magwe, Rakhine, and Sagaing recorded the highest numbers of livestock loss. The population in these states and regions need replacements to avoid a fall in animal protein intake (FAO 16/03/2016). Debris from flooding has blocked irrigation canals in several northern provinces, which can create difficulties for monsoon harvests of paddy crops in October (FAO 05/02/2016; 10/03/2016). Additional production support is required to repair livelihoods in Chin, Ayeryawaddy and Rakhine. This includes distribution of seeds, drying nets and post-harvest equipment, and water-resistant storage containers (FAO 16/03/2016).

Due to a strong El Niño, fish farmers risk losing their fish to high temperatures. The July-August flooding had already destroyed 30,000 fish farms (government 19/02/2016). Fish farmers need fishing equipment, fishing gear, boats, and the rehabilitation of fish ponds (FAO 16/03/2016).

The IDPs recently displaced by fighting between the TNLA and Myanmar Army risk losing their livelihoods as stocks and crops are looted and their livestock is killed (WFP 23/03/2016).

Health

The number of people in need of health assistance increased from 421,0000 to 537,000 over 2015, as an additional 100,000 people were assessed to be in need in Rakhine state, mainly from the Rohingya community (OCHA 12/2015).

Eight children have died from meningitis in Tharsi township, Mandalay (Myanmar Times 29/03/2016). All cases were reported between 1 and 9 March.

Healthcare availability and access

In Rakhine, access to healthcare is a major challenge for over 421,000 people. Only patients in the most critical condition tend to reach hospital. (OCHA 16/12/2015). Health service providers in Rakhine face many restrictions and shortages of staff (OCHA 30/11/2015). In Buthidaung and Maungdaw townships, secondary health services are not accessible. Around 117,000 people in Kachin and northern Shan face challenges in accessing health care (OCHA 30/11/2015). People living in areas beyond government control in Kachin and northern Shan rely on facilities in China

While most IDP camps have primary health services, the quality is poor due to inadequate drugs and human resources (OCHA 30/11/2015).

Nutrition

119,000 people are in need of assistance. Nearly 100,000 are among Rohingya in Rakhine, the remainder are among the IDP population in Kachin. Malnutrition in Rakhine is most prevalent among people living along the border with Bangladesh (Reuters 29/01/2016). In Maungdaw township, 4,100 children were identified with SAM as of October 2015. A further 19,200 children are moderately malnourished (DVB 28/01/2016). In Buthidaung township, global acute malnutrition (GAM) levels are at 15.1% and SAM levels at 2% (OCHA 30/11/2015). The situation is reportedly exacerbated by the impact of flooding in 2015 on cropland, and the poor standards of WASH in IDP camps. People have responded with negative coping strategies such as reducing the number of meals from three to one a day, and eating less varied food (DVB 28/01/2016).  

WASH

Water shortages have hit Shan state and Sagaing and Mandalay regions earlier than usual, due to a strong El Niño (Government 22/02/2016; 29/02/2016; local media 03/02/2016). Drying up of reservoirs rendered over 40,000 hectares uncultivable in Sagaing region (government 07/03/2016). Rakhine state faces similar water shortages due to prolonged dry seasons in 2014 and 2015 (Solidarités International 13/02/2016). Around 1,700 villages are estimated to suffer from water shortages across Myanmar, with an additional 1,000 expected to face shortages at the end of March, including 446 in Ayeyarwaddy region (Irrawaddy 04/03/2016; government 14/03/2016). In Chin state, around 700 IDPs in Ral Hmone camp, Hakha, are facing shortages of drinking water (local media 23/02/2016).

538,100 people are in need of WASH assistance. This includes 141,400 conflict-affected people in Kachin and Shan, as well as 385,700 people in Rakhine (mainly Rohingya). Latrines continue to be destroyed for firewood and shelter. Seasonal diarrhoea outbreaks remain a concern in IDP locations (OCHA 30/11/2015). Inadequate drainage systems in IDP camps in Rakhine state worsen living conditions (OCHA 30/11/2015).

Shelter and NFIs

240,300 people are in need of shelter and NFI assistance. The majority are IDPs in Kachin and Rakhine (OCHA 30/11/2015). 21,000­–39,000 homes were completely destroyed in July and August flooding, including 10,000 in Rakhine.

The majority of Rohingya who were displaced in Rakhine have been living in temporary shelters for over three years, without proper maintenance. Camps are often overcrowded and conditions often worsen during rainy seasons (OCHA 30/11/2015). Around 50% of IDP shelters do not meet minimum humanitarian requirements, and approximately 120,000 protracted displaced were without access to improved shelter across Myanmar (USAID 19/02/2016). 

Education

188,000 children in total are in need of education assistance; 66,000 in Kachin and northern Shan, and 122,000 in Rakhine (OHCA 30/11/2015). According to the latest government census, more than one in five children aged 10–17 are working instead of attending school (Myanmar Times 29/03/2016).

An assessment in September-October found that 60,000 children of ages 3-17 are not accessing formal education in Rakhine. In Maungdaw and Buthidaung townships, less than 50% of communities have a school providing basic education, and 60% in Sittwe and Minbya townships. Nearly 20% of schools in Rakhine run a double shift to accommodate their students. Between 20–30% of teachers are absent on any given day in Rakhine (REACH 30/11/2015).

Protection

Over 300,000 people are reported to be in need of protection assistance. Most are situated in Rakhine (over 183,000) and Kachin and northern Shan (around 117,000) (OCHA 30/11/2015). Various armed groups have reportedly forcibly recruited civilians (Democratic Voice of Burma 08/02/2016). Over 100 villagers in Mongyang township, eastern Shan, have been displaced from fear of recruitment into the United Wa State Army (Irrawaddy 19/02/2016).

The Myanmar Army has been accused of human rights abuse during its recent clashes with the TNLA. They are reported to have tortured villagers of ethnic minorities, set houses on fire, and used villagers to navigate through mine-contaminated fields (Irrawaddy 16/03/2016; Myanmar Times 11/03/2016). Disabled and elderly are reportedly caught in the fighting, as they are unable to leave their villages (WFP 23/03/2016). In addition, the Myanmar Army has been accused of detaining and beating around 100 villagers in northern Shan, on suspicion of supporting the TNLA. The army has been accused of using similar tactics in previous conflicts with ethnic groups (Myanmar Times 21/03/2016).

Mines and ERW

Around five million people live in mine-contaminated areas (Mines Advisory Group 05/2014). From 2007 to October 2015, most landmine deaths have been reported in Kayin state. At least 448 people were killed or injured by antipersonnel mines between the start of the peace talks in December 2014 until October 2015 (MIMU 13/10/2015). Armed groups are still accused of laying landmines around villages, most recently during clashes between the SSA-S and TNLA in February and March (Myanmar Times 18/02/2016).

Gender

Rape has been used repeatedly as a weapon by armed groups, including the Myanmar army.  In 2014, the Women’s League of Burma released a report documenting more than 118 victims of sexual violence at the hands of the Myanmar army under the USDP government since March 2011 (local media 26/11/2014). Incidents of sexual violence perpetrated by the military are reportedly increasing (local media 25/02/2016).

Children

The Myanmar Army and other armed groups reportedly recruit child soldiers (OCHA 31/12/2015). From 2013 to January 2015, 723 cases of underage recruitment by the Myanmar Army were reported to the UN (Child Soldiers International 01/2015). On 13 March, the army released 46 child soldiers, bringing the total number to 744 since 2012 (AFP 13/03/2016). The number of children remaining within the Myanmar army is unclear.

Other armed groups continue to forcefully recruit child soldiers within their ranks. Abductions by armed actors in Shan state have reportedly grown in frequency and scale since the ceasefire agreement (Myanmar Times 05/02/2016). The number of child soldiers in several armed groups is unclear. Child Soldiers International estimates 1,000 serving in the KIA alone. The actual numbers are likely to be higher (Myanmar Times 19/02/2016). Several armed groups reportedly use quotas in areas they control, through which they acquire new recruits. The KIA reportedly recruits one child per family (Child Soldiers International 30/03/2016).

Vulnerable groups

Human rights infringements against the Rohingya minority in Rakhine state continue to be reported. Myanmar states that the Rohingya are migrants from neighbouring Bangladesh, thus excluded from citizenship under the 1982 Citizenship Law. Bangladeshi officials state that Rohingya are citizens of Myanmar and that Rohingya living in Bangladesh should be sent to Myanmar (Reuters 02/06/2015). Rohingya are allowed to have a maximum of two children (HRW 27/01/2016).

Documentation

Over 800,000 people – mostly Rohingya – are estimated without citizenship in northern Rakhine (UNHCR 15/01/2016).

Updated: 04/04/2016

Namibia

Natural disasters

Drought

Namibia has been struggling with ongoing drought affecting a number of countries in southern Africa since the beginning of 2015, as the late onset of seasonal rains affected crop production and pastoralism between October 2014 and February 2015, causing significant food shortages. Prolonged lack of rain continued throughout 2015. Despite a slight improvement in precipitation reported between December 2015 and January 2016, vegetation conditions are still below-average in most cropped areas, due to the late onset and erratic pattern of seasonal rains. As of 5 February 2016, well below-average rainfall was still reported in areas of northern Namibia (IFRC 12/11/2015; FEWSNET 05/02/2016; 22/01/2016; FAO 08/02/2016).

Floods

Floods struck the region of Omusati on 11 Feburary, killing one and displacing almost 370 people, who relocated to higher ground. As of 16 March, 220 people are still hosted in Epalela settlement (New Era 16/03/2016). The flooding was caused by recent erratic rainfall, in combination with the rise of Cunene River caused by heavy downpours in neighbouring Angola. Some accused Namwater (Namibia Water Corporation) of having pumped too much water into the canal between Oshakati and Calueque, which caused the flooding of cultivated fields (New Era 11/02/2016; 16/03/2016).

Food security and livelihoods

In Namibia, over 1.5 million people (60% of the population) live in rural areas, relying on subsistence farming and pastoralism, and have been severely affected by drought. As of 23 March, the expected 2016 white maize harvest from the Maize Triangle, in the Otjozondjupa region, will be 37,000 tonnes, compared to the 32,000 estimate at the beginning of the month. In 2015, the total maize crop produced in Namibia was 44% less than 2014. On 23 March, over 370,000 people are reported to be in need of urgent food assistance (CIA Factbook 2016; IRIN 28/01/2016; Namibia Red Cross Society 25/01/2016; IFRC 27/01/2016; The Namibian 29/01/2016; New Era 23/03/2016). The food security situation is expected to improve after March 2016, when the first 2016 harvesting will provide new food supplies (FAO). Large parts of the country, including the main producing regions of Oshikoto, Oshana, and Omusati, started receiving well below-average rains between January and July 2015. Between October 2015 and January 2016 the lack of rain persisted, especially over north and southeast Namibia (local media 10/06/2015; 31/03/2015; FEWSNET 22/01/2016; 11/11/2015).

Livelihoods

Drought has killed hundreds of livestock in the farming region of Omaheke (New Era 13/01/2016). In other regions, such as Karas, farmers are sharing with their cattle the food rations they are receiving as part of a government drought-relief program (All Africa 15/01/2016).

WASH

Increasing water shortages have been reported in some parts of the country, especially in Windhoek and surrounding areas, with the potential to create life-threatening situations. One of the dam reservoirs supplying water to the over 350,000 Windhoek inhabitants was reported to be completely dry as of 8 December 2015 (New Era 08/12/2015). As of 22 January 2016, water authorities have requested residents of the most affected areas to limit their water use, due to prolonged low levels of water in the dam reservoirs (FEWSNET 22/01/2016).

Reviewed: 07/04/2016

Papua New Guinea Country Analysis

Politics and security

Inter-communal violence displaces thousands of people every year. According to the local police, about 30 conflicts are ongoing in the province (Inter Press Service 14/08/2015). Tribes in Western Highlands have been engaged in armed conflict for more than 30 years (Radio New Zealand 17/07/2015).

Displacement

IDPs

An estimated 22,500 people are internally displaced as a result of inter-communal violence or natural disasters. 1,200 were estimated displaced in 2014, although the actual number is most likely higher. The majority of the displaced live in Madang and Morobe provinces in northern Papua New Guinea. Around 85% of the displaced live in government-run camps (IDMC 11/12/2014).

Refugees, asylum seekers, and detainees

Papua New Guinea hosts an estimated 10,000 refugees and asylum seekers (UNHCR 12/2014). About 1,000 people seeking asylum in Australia are detained in an Australian-run transit centre on Manus Island. Overcrowding, inadequate WASH facilities, and health concerns – including outbreaks of malaria and typhoid – have been reported; however, conditions have reportedly improved in the last year (The Sydney Morning Herald 10/09/2015; The Guardian 08/09/2015; 18/02/2015). About half of the detainees have been granted refugee status by PNG authorities, but a lack of a clear resettlement strategy is reported (Radio New Zealand 15/02/2016).

Humanitarian access

Only 3% of roads in Papua New Guinea are paved; travel between provinces is mostly by air or boat (WFP 07/09/2015). Travelling by inland rivers has become difficult due to reduced water levels (government 30/09/2015). Many drought-affected areas can only be reached by foot or air (UN 22/02/2016, UNRC 07/01/2016). With many of the communities living in remote areas, logistics remain a key challenge in delivering assistance (OCHA 22/02/2016).

Natural disasters

Drought

Several months of drought, and August frost in the Highlands region, has affected 2.7 million people across the country: 700,000 people are living in the most severely affected areas (OCHA 22/02/2016). Deaths related to diseases and starvation have been reported, but no official number is available (IRIN 28/01/2016; IOM 01/11/2015). The 2015–16 El Niño has reached its peak towards the end of 2015 and continues its gradual decline. The impact and after-effect on people and their livelihood remains critical (UN 22/02/2016).

Enga and Southern Highlands provinces have declared a state of emergency (WFP 07/09/2015). Some people in the Highlands region have reportedly moved to lower altitudes to live with relatives (ABC 19/08/2015). An increase in bushfires has been reported in several drought-affected areas (OCHA 07/01/2016).

The current drought also continues to have a significant impact on all the Schouten Islands, where the amount of rainfall is significantly less than normal. The return of rain in late 2015 has allowed new gardens to be planted. However, staple crops are not expected to be ready before June at the earliest, so will not be ready for harvest, which is supposed to last from mid-April to June (Oxfam 19/02/2016).

Floods

Rainfall since November has alleviated some of the drought, but drought-affected areas are not able to absorb heavy rainfall (OCHA 15/02/2016).

Mid-February, an estimated 27,000 people have been affected and at least six people killed in flash floods and landslides after heavy rain in Chimbu and Western Highlands. 200 houses have been destroyed, and bridges have been damaged, and hundreds of households displaced by landslides. (Radio New Zealand 15/02/2016; OCHA 09/03/2016 15/02/2016). Some 1,650 individuals in Jiwaka province have been affected by floods and landslips, with many having moved closer to water sources due to the drought and then got flooded (OCHA 09/03/2016).

Food security and livelihoods

According to a recent WFP assessment, drought and frost have highly or severely impacted the food security of nearly 1.5 million people. Over 162,000 people face extreme food shortages in Western, Southern Highland, Enga, Chimbu and Milne provinces (ECHO 28/03/2016). Frost and drought have destroyed crops, in particular sweet potato, the staple food of the affected areas. Livelihoods have been affected, and food prices have increased. Affected families are resorting to negative coping mechanisms, including limiting the number of meals (CARE 15/10/2015).

Food availability

Frost has destroyed crops in the most affected areas, and food is reported as a priority need (OCHA 08/01/2016; AFP 24/08/2015). Frost in Tambul, the main agricultural district in the Highlands, has damaged sweet potato and potato gardens (CARE 31/08/2015). Fish ponds have dried up, reducing the availability of an important source of protein (ECHO 14/09/2015). Livestock numbers have fallen as animal feed is depleted (The Guardian 02/12/2015).

In Eastern Highlands province, food production has fallen by an estimated 50% (Radio New Zealand 20/11/2015). November and December rains caused the limited food available to rot, and has destroyed crops (OCHA 11/01/2016). In the Highlands, frost has destroyed wild plants that are usually eaten in periods of food shortages, leaving the population with limited coping mechanisms (Government 27/10/2015). 

Food access

Market access is extremely limited in rural areas in the Highlands, and in Blup Blup, Wei, and Kadovar, in the Schouten Islands (Oxfam 19/02/2016). Food prices have reportedly tripled in areas where the population has access to markets (FAO 09/02/2016). Some markets have closed (IFRC 30/10/2015).

Livelihoods

Livelihoods have been affected by damage to coffee plantations, one of the main cash crops in the Highlands (IOM 04/09/2015). Fisheries and livestock are also affected. Damage to food gardens means families cannot rely on selling their surplus to purchase food or essential NFIs (CARE 15/10/2015). Areas dependent on watercourses to transport cash crops to markets are impeded by reduced water levels (FAO 30/10/2015).

Health

Water shortages have caused hospitals and health centres in the affected provinces to scale down operations or to close (Reuters 04/03/2016 14/09/2015; UNDP 26/08/2015). The only two hospitals in Simbu province have reportedly closed (Inter Press Service 13/11/2015).

Inadequate hygiene practices are resulting from limited water availability, and an increase in diarrhoea, dysentery, typhoid, and skin disease cases has been reported across the country (CARE 15/10/2015; government 30/09/2015). Rural health centres lack the capacity to deal with any potential large disease outbreaks (IOM 04/09/2015).

Dengue

170 dengue cases have been reported in Western province since November. The outbreak is at risk of intensifying due to recent rains in the province (WHO 26/01/2016; UNRC 07/01/2016).

Tuberculosis

An outbreak of drug-resistant tuberculosis has been reported on Daru Island, where 160 cases have been recorded in a population of 15,000. Health facilities are unable to effectively treat the patients, many of whom have moved further into the bush because of the drought and lack access to health facilities (RNZ 13/01/2016; ABC 11/01/2016).

WASH

With water sources drying up, the population has resorted to using less reliable water sources, including potentially contaminated rivers (Australian National University 15/01/2016; ECHO 14/09/2015; ABC 18/08/2015). Sources traditionally used for washing and bathing are now also being used for drinking water (Australian National University 15/01/2016; IFRC 15/09/2015). Distances to collect water have increased, and the time spent collecting water has doubled in many affected areas (OCHA 07/01/2016; CARE 15/10/2015; ECHO 14/09/2015). Lack of water storage is reported as priority concern (IOM 25/01/2016).

In the more remote, difficult-to-access rocky islands of Wei, Kadovar and Blup Blup (Schouten Islands), access to fresh water is severely restricted. The majority of rainwater catchment systems are empty and available storage is insufficient. In many communities, people walk for up to an hour to access water. In Wei and Kadovar people travel to neighbouring islands to obtain water, when weather conditions and fuel availability allow (Oxfam 19/02/2016).

Open defecation is widely practised in the affected areas, and may lead to contamination of water sources (Government 15/09/2015).

Education

Several schools in Jiwaka province have been closed due to flooding mid-February (Radio New Zealand 16/02/2016).

Attendance rates among both teachers and students have dropped as a result of the drought (CARE 15/10/2015). Water shortages have caused several schools in the affected provinces to close or keep shorter hours, so that children can help their families fetch water (Caritas 25/11/2015; CARE 15/10/2015; ECHO 14/09/2015).

Updated: 05/04/2016

Turkey Country Analysis

Politics and security

Turkey’s relative stability, which has attracted large refugee populations fleeing war in neighbouring Syria and Iraq, has been threatened in recent months. Conflict between Turkey’s government and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has killed over 40,000 people since 1984, was reignited in July 2015 after a two-year ceasefire (Reuters 05/11/2015).

Conflict with PKK

Turkish security forces launched a large-scale military operation in the southeast on 14 December 2015, which continued at high intensity through January 2016, causing large-scale displacement. The government has repeatedly imposed curfews in order to carry out military operations against PKK forces (RT 28/01/2016). On 19 January, Prime Minister Davutoğlu declared PKK forces had been cleared from Silopi town in Şirnak province (ICG 01/02/2016). Conflict in Diyarbakir and Cizre is ongoing (Economist 23/01/2016; AFP 03/02/2016).

In addition to longstanding demands for greater Kurdish autonomy, the PKK accuses the Turkish government of not doing enough to prevent Islamic State (IS) attacks on Kurds. On 20 July, a suspected IS suicide bombing killed 32 people, most of whom were young Kurdish activists, in Suruç, a rural town in Şanlıurfa province near the Syrian border (ICG 11/08/2015; BBC 14/01/2016; Economist 23/01/2016). Following the bombing, the PKK killed 18 Turkish police and soldiers, prompting the Turkish government to launch airstrikes on PKK positions in the southeast. Over 250 PKK forces were killed and 800 people with connections to PKK were arrested in the last week of July (ICG 11/08/2015).

Over 500 people, including 50 children and 120 women, are reported to have been killed in armed clashes between Kurds and the Turkish military since September (Kurdish Daily News 15/02/2016). On 11 March, Turkey’s interior ministry announced the deployment of 20,000 troops and police against insurgents in three more Kurdish towns: Nusaybin, Sirnak, and Yuksekova.

Elections

Turkey held parliamentary elections in June 2015. The People’s Democratic Party (HDP), the moderate, pro-Kurdish party, won 13.1% of the vote, landing a major blow to the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) (ICG 11/08/2015). However, after failing to form a coalition, snap elections were held in November. AKP won a parliamentary majority, returning it to government (BBC 14/01/2016).

The ruling party has been pushing for constitutional reform to strengthen the power of the President, whose role has traditionally been ceremonial (ICG 01/02/2016). Recep Tayyib Erdogan was directly elected President in 2014, having served as Prime Minister of an AKP government since 2003 (BBC 01/11/2015).

Stakeholders

Justice and Development Party (AKP) is a social conservative party and the dominant political force in Turkey. AKP has been in power since 2002, although it briefly lost its parliamentary majority between June and November 2015. (Euronews 01/11/2015). 

Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK): The leadership of the PKK and at least nine armed leftist groups have declared a united front against the Ankara government (Economist 15/03/2016). Turkey and many western countries have declared the PKK a terrorist organisation. PKK has often used violence in demanding more autonomy, and at times independence, from the Turkish state; multiple ceasefires have not held (BBC 27/07/2015). 

People’s Democratic Party (HDP): A pro-Kurdish socialist party established in 2012, HDP has distanced itself from the PKK and its use of violence, entering into peace negotiations with the government between 2013 and 2015 (BBC 27/07/2015). 

Republican People’s Party (CHP) is socially liberal and democratic. It won 25.4% of the vote in November 2015, making it Turkey’s main opposition party.

European Union: In November 2015, the EU agreed to provide Turkey with over USD 3.17 billion in aid to improve its management of migrant outflows, including by tightening its border controls (BBC 14/01/2016). On 18 March a deal was concluded, which implied that all refugees and migrants arriving in Greece from 20 March will be returned to Turkey. The controversial one-for-one deal means that for every Syrian refugee the EU sends back across the Aegean, a Syrian in Turkey will be given a new home in Europe (The Guardian 18/03/2016). Turkish officials will be posted to the Greek islands to oversee the readmission of irregular refugees.  

Russia: Russia’s military involvement in Syria has fuelled tensions with Turkey. The Turkish government has twice accused Russian aircraft of violating its airspace, most recently on 29 January (ICG 01/02/2016).

Islamic State: Islamic State is suspected of carrying out several suicide attacks in Turkey, including in Istanbul, Ankara, and at the border with Syria (ICG 01/02/2016).

Recent incidents

IS-related incidents: On 19 March, at least five people were killed and 36 injured in an IS suicide bombing on a famous Istanbul shopping area (Al Jazeera 20/03/2016). On 17 February, at least 28 people were killed and 61 wounded by a car bomb targeting the Turkish military in Ankara (AFP 18/02/2016).

On 8 March, rockets fired from a IS-controlled area of Syria hit Kilis, a Turkish border town, killing two people including a child, and injuring one (AFP 08/03/2016). On 18 January, one civilian died in after a rocket launched from IS territory in Syria hit Kilis (ICG 01/02/2016).

On 10 February, Turkish authorities reportedly found suicide vests and explosives on a group of people travelling through the southeast Syrian border town of Karkamis to Turkey (11/02/2016 Telegraph). On 12 January, 11 people, mostly foreign tourists, were killed in a suspected IS suicide bombing in Sultanahmet district, Istanbul (ICG 01/02/2016).

Conflict with Kurdish militants: On 17 March, an explosive device was found in a vehicle near a government building in Hani town, Diyarbakir province, and disabled (Ipost 18/03/2016). Kurdish group TAK, close to the PKK, claimed responsibility for a car bomb explosion in Ankara on 13 March, which killed 37 people and injured 125 i (BBC News 17/03/2016; New York Times 13/03/2016). On 3 March, two Kurdish militants from the Revolutionary People's Liberation Party-Front attacked the police with gunfire and a grenade in Istanbul and were killed (BBC News 03/03/2016).

In Yuksekova, near the Iranian border, several hours before curfew was to start, an explosion injured four people (The Straits Times 13/03/2016). In Cinar, Diyarbakir province, a car bomb attack and clashes on 14 January killed at least 35 civilians and 45 combatants (ICG 01/02/2016). On 31 March, six police officers were killed and at least 23 people wounded in a bomb attack targeting a police vehicle in Diyarbakir (AFP 31/03/2016).

Displacement

Displacement has surged in the southeast as government airstrikes and military operations have driven over 355,000 residents from their homes in a number of towns (RT 05/04/2016).

Turkey hosts the largest refugee population in the world, including over 2.7 million Syrian refugees (UNHCR 09/03/2016, ECHO 10/02/2016).

The Turkish government estimates that tens of thousands of people will be readmitted to Turkey following the agreement with EU, which implies that all refugees and migrants arriving in Greece from 20 March will be returned to Turkey. (UNHCR 18/02/2016). On 27 March, the Turkish coastguard stopped five boats carrying some 350 undocumented migrants, mostly from Myanmar, who were trying to reach the Greek island of Lesbos, illustrating that the migration flow has decreased but not stopped despite EU agreement (AFP 27/03/2016). On 3 April, 339 undocumented refugees were reported by Turkish authorities crossing the Aegan Sea on smuggling boats. About 4,000 asylum-seekers who arrived after 20 March are being detained for deportation (Associated Press 05/04/2016). Greece paused deportations of migrants to Turkey on 5 April, a day after the first boats took back 202 people from Greece to the Turkish port of Dikili, as it was revealed that 13 of them had expressed an interest to claim asylum but had not been registered by Greek authorities (BBC 05/04/2016). Some 65,000 undocumented migrants have been caught and prevented from leaving Turkey since January 1, as of 3 April (AFP 03/04/2016).

IDPs

Displacement has surged in the southeast as government airstrikes and military operations have driven over 200,000 residents from their homes in a number of towns. Some 20,000 have fled Sur district in Diyarbakir, over 80% of the population (Economist 23/01/2016). More residents fled other districts in Diyarbakir as the government stepped up operations on 27 January (Reuters 27/01/2016).

Refugees and asylum seekers

As of 9 March, over 2.7 million Syrian refugees were registered in Turkey, half of whom are children (UNHCR 09/03/2016 29/02/2016 03/03/2016). Numbers spiked in 2015, when over one million were newly registered (UNHCR/Government 31/12/2015). Most refugees live among host communities, although some 300,000 live in formal camps near the Syrian border (3RP 19/01/2016).

More than 5,640 members of Syria's Turkmen minority, half of them children, fled across the Turkish border between 29 January and 1 February to escape an offensive by pro-government forces in Syria's northwest. Some are accommodated in Hatay province with relatives, 2,000 in AFAD Sanliurfa Suruc Centre and others to AFAD Hatay Güvecci centre (Government 09/02/2016).

In addition, there are over 200,000 Iraqi refugees in Turkey, as well as large populations from Afghanistan, Iran, and a number of African countries (Reuters 11/01/2016).

Refugee flows: High mobility among the refugee population mean needs are hard to track and regularly changing. Unofficial data compiled since 1 January 2015 indicates that almost one million migrants and refugees have entered Greece from Turkey by sea (IOM 15/03/2016). On average in February 170 people are arriving per day in Turkey, and many quickly move on towards Greece: a survey of Syrian refugee arrivals in Greece in December 2015 found 63% had left Syria earlier that year (IOM 25/02/2016; UNHCR 08/12/2015).

Bad weather and rough seas in January and February led to a fall in the number of crossings compared December 2015 (UNICEF 16/02/2016). Nonetheless, some 130,000 refugees and migrants crossed from Turkey into Greece between 1 January and 10 March – almost ten times as many as in the same period last year. Most were Syrians (Irin 10/03/2016 ECHO 03/03/2016, Spectator 11/02/2016). Since the EU agreement, the decrease of refugee arrivals continued. As of 9 March, 444 migrants have been reported missing or dead in the Mediterranean since January. 3,770 migrants were reported dead or missing in 2015, although the actual total is much higher (IOM Migration Flows 09/03/2016; IOM 11/02/2016).

On 18 March, Turkish authorities detained 1,700 people, mostly from Syria and Afghanistan, trying to reach the Greek island of Lesbos (Newstrust 18/03/2016).

Humanitarian access

Curfews have been implemented in multiple towns, notably Cizre, Nusaybin and Diyarbakir in the southeast since July 2015, and has been extended as of 5 April in particular in Silopi, a town close to Syria and Iraq (RT 05/04/2016). Turkish security forces are reportedly blocking access to medical care and limiting the delivery of water, food, and electricity in the southeast. The enforcement of an extended curfew also limits access in some areas (Physicians for Human Rights 08/02/2016).

On 13 March, the Turkish government imposed a curfew on Yuksekova, near the Iranian border, and Nusaybin, near the Syrian border. The curfew was eased in part of Diyarbakir, the biggest Kurdish majority city, which has been under lockdown since December. Other parts of Sur remain under curfew (The Straits Times 13/03/2016).

20,000 people fleeing fighting in Syria were refused entry at the border and have joined up to 50,000 IDPs already in villages and camps in Kilis province (UN 13/02/2016, REACH 11/02/2016, BBC 08/02/2016; UN 13/02/2016). As of 1 April, 200,000 displaced people are estimated to be within 20km of Turkey’s border (Amnesty International 01/04/2016).

Food security and livelihoods

With limited livelihood opportunities, refugee households face high levels of vulnerability and food insecurity. Poor families report earning only 20% of their pre-crisis incomes. Informal labourers earn as little as USD 2.5 per day in the southeastern regions (3RP 19/01/2016). Poor livelihood opportunities are compounded by high living costs: rents have tripled since the onset of the refugee crisis and inflation has pushed prices of basic commodities upwards (3RP 19/01/2016).

The local economy in the southeast is under strain due to fighting. Unemployment has doubled in the past year. Damage to Diyarbakir is estimated at USD 300 million (Economist 23/01/2016).

Health

Syrian refugees are under temporary protection and entitled to access Turkish healthcare services. High arrival rates in 2015 have placed local health services under strain. Some clinics and hospitals have seen caseloads increase by up to 40% in 2015. Psychosocial support is lacking (3RP 19/01/2016). Turkey has reportedly allowed a few dozen Syrian civilians with urgent medical needs to cross the border in over the past two weeks, although it has denied entry to individuals suffering from chronic diseases, such as cancer and those in need of dialysis. Turkish authorities would not allow families of those with life-threatening injuries to enter together, in some cases allowing the patient and a carer but leaving the rest of the family, including children, behind (Amnesty International 19/02/2016).

Severe lack of clean water or sanitation have been reported in camps close to the border (Amnesty International 01/04/2016).

Southeast: Urgent medical needs are reported in towns affected by conflict. Ambulances have not been allowed entry to locations where wounded are reported (Reuters 27/01/2016).

Shelter and NFIs

Syrian refugees in urban settings have difficulty meeting basic domestic needs, given their minimal financial means and the high cost of living for food, accommodation, water, electricity, gas and heating (3RP 19/01/2016).

90% of Syrian refugees live outside of camps. Many live in makeshift shelters in open areas, unable to afford the cost of rent (ECHO 03/03/2016, 23/12/2015).

At the camps near the Turkey–Syria border, three or four families share one tent in freezing conditions and a lack of adequate medical facilities (Irin 10/03/2016).

Education

1,337,400 children need education assistance: 169,240 are in camps and 1,168,160 are living among communities (R3P 19/01/2016).

Outside camps, the school enrolment rate is only 25%, compared with a rate of 90% inside camps. Around 400,000 Syrian children in Turkey who are of school age are not receiving education (ECHO 03/03/2016, Human Rights Watch 08/11/2015; R3P 19/01/2016).

Temporary education centres in camps and host communities are stretched beyond capacity and they are not available in all areas where refugees are currently hosted. Some charge tuition fees that are unaffordable for many refugee families. Language barriers also act as an obstacle and the demand for language programmes exceeds the current level of provision (Human Rights Watch 08/11/2015; R3P 19/01/2016).

There is a lack of information available for refugee families regarding enrolment procedures (Human Rights Watch 08/11/2015).

Protection

Populations in Kurdish majority areas face major protection threats since conflict intensified. Arrests of PKK members and people suspected of PKK ties have been widespread. 1,100 academics have been placed under investigation after calling for an end to military operations in the southeast (Telegraph 16/03/2016; Economist 23/01/2016). The Turkish government is reported to have harassed healthcare professionals and human rights activists (Physicians for Human Rights 08/02/2016).

On 6 March, Turkish police fired rubber bullets to disperse a crowd of hundreds of people trying to mark International Women's Day in central Istanbul. The group had ignored a ban on the march by the Istanbul governor on the grounds of security concerns (Reuters 06/03/2016).

Vulnerable groups

Migrants:

Turkish authorities detained more than 150,000 illegal migrants in 2015 (Reuters 11/01/2016). Human rights groups have accused the Turkish government of abusing and deporting hundreds of refugees in order to stem the flow of migrants to the European Union (BBC 15/01/2016). Turkish authorities have reportedly been rounding up and expelling groups of around 100 Syrian men, women and children to Syria from Hatay province on a near-daily basis since mid-January (Amnesty International 01/04/2016). As of 23 March, Turkey returned around 30 Afghan asylum seekers. Reports since December 2015 mentioned that asylum-seekers have been apprehended at the western border, detained without access to lawyers, and then forcibly returned to Afghanistan, Syria or Iraq after being forced to sign “voluntary return” papers (Amnesty International 23/03/2016).

Turkish security forces have reportedly shot and injured Syrian refugees, including children, who have attempted to cross the border unofficially with the help of smugglers (Amnesty International 19/02/2016). In February 2016, Syrian hospitals in Azaz, a border town northwest of Aleppo, were reportedly treating an average of two people a day who had been shot attempting to cross into Turkey. In one case, a 10-year-old was shot in the head (Irin 10/03/2016).

Kidnappings for ransom in camps close to the border have been reported (Amnesty International 01/04/2016).

Children

There are extremely high rates of Syrian child labour in Turkey: children comprise the majority of the 300,000 illegal Syrian workers (UNHCR 18/12/2015; Human Rights Watch 08/11/2015). They are employed for half the national minimum wage (Australian Broadcasting Corporation 15/01/2016).

An average of two children have drowned every day since September 2015 as their families try to cross the eastern Mediterranean. With children now accounting for 36% of those on the move, the chance of them drowning on the Aegean Sea crossing from Turkey to Greece has grown proportionately (IOM 19/02/2016).

Documentation

On 6 February, Turkey tightened its visa rules for Iraqi citizens, requiring them to apply before travelling the country (AFP 06/02/2016). Tougher entry requirements may deter people from seeking protection in Turkey

On 7 January new regulations came into force that require Syrians arriving from a third country to Turkey by air and sea to have visas, with the aim to reduce transit migration directed toward EU. The number of Syrians allowed into Turkey from Lebanon or Jordan dropped from 41,781 on 1-8 January to 1,155 on 9-18 January (ECHO 10/02/2016). Previously, Syrians had been allowed to stay in Turkey for up to 90 days without a visa (AFP 08/01/2016).

In January, a new Turkish law allows Syrians refugees to apply for Turkish work permits. However, the application process is being described as prohibitively complex and costly. Syrian refugees must wait six months after registering as refugee before being eligible, they must remain in the district where they registered, and they must find a company willing to make their application on their behalf (Irin 30/03/2016). There are 300,000 illegally employed Syrian refugees. The influx of refugee is pushing up prices, particularly for food and rent in areas with large refugee populations (Daily Sabah 19/02/2016). Non-Syrian refugees still lack the right to work in Turkey (Irin 30/03/2016).

Gender

Sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV) is a major protection concern among displaced communities. SGBV incidents are believed to be underreported due to cultural barriers and fear of stigmatisation (3RP 19/01/2016).

Based on government figures, 15% of refugee girls aged between 15 and 17 are married (R3P 19/01/2016). 

Updated: 05/04/2016

Uganda